Sometimes in all these discussions about stocks the big picture gets lost.
Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

Remember to include dividends. In real terms, even including dividends, it's true that stocks have returned nothing. But in nominal terms, stocks have provided small gains. See, e.g.
Yahoo S&P 500 Total Return chart (2 Year, interactive), or
M* interactive chart - Total Stock Market (VTSMX) and S&P 500 TR, Dec 31, 2014 to June 29, 2014
VTSMX has gone up 1.45%, and the S&P 500 has gone up 2.79%.
Given recent volatility, a single day's movement could wipe all this out. So the cumulative returns are indeed positive, but not necessarily meaningful.

FYI: Battered investors are looking for light at the end of the tunnel. Here is at least a small glimmer: The most bullish day of the year is here. According to Stock Traders Almanac, July 1 (or which day is the first trading day of July) is the most bullish day of the year.
Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time on the first trading day of July. The average gain is 0.46%.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-ready-for-the-most-bullish-day-of-the-year-2016-06-29/print
CXO Advisory July Trading Calandar:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/trading-calendar/july/

For what interest it holds, I've been talking with Mr. Cinnamond about the decision. Two quick takeaways: (1) he's sympathetic with critics of the fund who decry a stock fund that's at 90% cash and climbing. (2) Given recent developments, he doesn't know when we'll next see a "normal" investing environment. Central banks are almost certain to follow free money policies, which only reward speculators, for the foreseeable future.
I'll try to flesh that out in our July edition but the fuller story will appear in August. Mr. Cinnamond remains employed at River Road, and behold to Aston, until July 6. After July 6, his reflections won't implicate Aston or River Road which are both constrained by FINRA rules about communicating with the public. So we'll chat in mid-July and I'll share what I learned.
I'll discuss in July's issue my own decision. When Artisan SCV was to be liquidated, I took the cash rather than allow a rollover to Artisan MCV. After spending a lot of time working with the numbers through our premium screener, the choice came down to ARIVX or Intrepid Endurance. I chose Endurance for a couple reasons: same discipline, slightly more flexible approach. Mr. Cinnamond is up 9.2% YTD, 6.2% over the TTM and 3.3% over the past five years; Intrepid is up 6.2%, 1.2% and 4.2% in those same periods. Both have had marginal volatility.
More soon,
David

Sometimes in all these discussions about stocks the big picture gets lost.
Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}
Or they lost money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^RUT+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^IXIC+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}
They still don't look appealing to me.

Only a handful of geopolitical events have led to / accompanied major market corrections. One factor that has repeated over time has been the slowing of market activity / dry up of liquidity, the increase in market volatility because of exogenous events during the summer / fall months, and favorability of earnings reports, pick up of volume/liquidity and institutional allocations into equities in the fall / winter / spring months. If an investor utilizes an empirically derived, systematically based, risk managed process with a diversification over varied asset classes, then long term results and investment decisions are less affected by geopolitical events and emotionally driven financial news.
For example, investing in a blend of small cap value and emerging small cap from Nov 1 to Apr 30 and then switching to utilities sector or cash equivalents ( depending on "high risk" signaling instruction from risk profile variable * ) from May 1 to Oct 31 of each year, forward 5 year total returns periods after 10 major geopolitical events over the last 60 years have produced: > 100% in 7 periods and 50% - 100% in 2 periods with no losing periods.
A higher confidence of an investment process' returns involves a review of 5 year total returns after market peaks and then subsequent market corrections of > 5%.
Since 1954, forward 5 year total returns periods for the small cap value / emerging small / utilities / cash process after the "peaks" have produced > 100% in 11 of 24 occurrences, between 50% and 100% in 8 out of 24, with no losing periods with median 5 year return = 87% vs. 43% for S&P500 buy & hold. Median 5 year return periods outside of correction occurrences = 114%.
In summary, market corrections and geopolitical events are temporary. An investor who has utilized a robust tactical investment process combined with superior asset class selection, and has been disciplined and patient for at least 5 years has been well rewarded.
* quantitative price based variable # 2 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1u5PjMjpeLICy8fa-34c89oHqV6bghPTipGO_0IY3VRc/edit?usp=sharing

I'm now 34 years young and I can't remember when times were not interesting! : )

I fear we will not know the full impact of the Brexit decision for many years, and that this impact may be much more that stock market fluctuations.
Putin has been consolidating power recently, and a less united Europe plays into his hands. This is probably my biggest fear. I think the folks arguing to leave were sold a bill of goods, and are suffering near term buyers remorse. The larger impact may indeed be down the road with a destabilized Europe.

That is true. Look at the middle east. The world is reaping what was decided in WWI!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25299553
But as I posted in another thread the EU was going against the historical trends. We can expect more countries to leave the EU in favor of localized government.
Longer term Europe will build stronger ties with Russia and it will not be a bad thing for them. And it will be going back to what it was historically - Russia, just another western European country. Russia is not the USSR, it is facing the same problems as the western European countries.

Only a handful of geopolitical events over the last 50 years have produced major forward negative returns.
If an investor utilizes an empirically derived, systematically based, risk managed process with a diversification over different asset classes, then long term results shouldn't be affected by news driven, geopolitical events.
For example, investing in a blend of small cap value and emerging small cap from Nov 1 to Apr 30 and then switching to utilities sector or cash equivalents ( depending on signaling instruction from risk profile variable * ) from May 1 to Oct 31 of each year, forward 5 year total returns periods after 10 major geopolitical events over the last 50 years have produced: > 100% in 7 periods and 50% - 100% in 2 periods with no losing periods.
A more compelling test of an investment process' returns involves a review of 5 year total returns after market peaks and then subsequent market corrections of > 5%. Since 1954, forward 5 year total returns periods for the small cap value / emerging small / utilities / cash process after the "peaks" have produced > 100% in 11 of 24 occurrences, between 50% and 100% 5 year total return periods in 8 out of 24, with no losing periods.
* quantitative price based variable # 2 https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/market-map-model-tactical-asset-allocation-using-low-expense-index-etfs-2015/

I fear we will not know the full impact of the Brexit decision for many years, and that this impact may be much more that stock market fluctuations.
Putin has been consolidating power recently, and a less united Europe plays into his hands. This is probably my biggest fear. I think the folks arguing to leave were sold a bill of goods, and are suffering near term buyers remorse. The larger impact may indeed be down the road with a destabilized Europe.

Hi guys!
Thank you for your input. Will retire at 61. The company will pay me to leave. At 62, I will get pension and social security. All things paid: house, cars, college, etc. As far as an estate, what is left will go to an only child. We would like to leave him the house, for sure. After that, it's just gravy. As far as overseas, it is concentrated. Friday showed me that. I guess I should spread it out more.....maybe an index fund, but no more %-wise. Europe is a mess, and I don't see it getting better. I think soon it will be China again. I like home better.
As for right now, my 401k is with FIDO---also a brokerage account. The only fees I've paid were for Wellesley ($75.00). This portfolio is not all set up yet.....it's a build in progress.
As far as other houses, I really want to stay with FIDO. I like their website and understand it.
Risk tolerance is conservative. 3% would be fine. My wife works at the Post Office and will be working for about 4 years after I retire. She will get pension and SS, also, along with a 401k (Thrift Savings Plan - TSP).
So, all income I want to go to MM fund to be used to buy more shares or for spending as we see fit. This portfolio does not have to outlive me......a house is enough, I think, for now.
Also, I have WAVIX and PTIAX as two (2) that might go along also.
God bless
the Pudd

It's hard to make constructive suggestions without knowing more about your situation...
What percentage you plan to draw (and will SS kick in before or after you start, which could affect weightings), are you looking to leave an estate (which would argue for more equity, since that's invested for a longer lifetime), etc.?
So here are a few comments and observations on the edges:
- This is weighted about 50/50 - including 30% in equity funds, 40% in Wellesley (1/3 equity), 20% in Golden Rainbow (1/2 equity). Might be okay for a shorter time frame portfolio, but for 30+ years, a tad more equities might be in order, especially given the low yields in bonds now and likely for several years.
- It's somewhat light on foreign exposure (about 8% of portolio), though not exceedingly so (i.e. as a percentage of equity, it's about 1/6).
- The domestic funds are very diversified (except PRBLX), while the international holdings are highly concentrated (28 stocks in Lazard, 32 in FMI). Intentional or an artifact of the fund selection?
- Share classes. If you're buying through Fidelity (a reasonable guess, given two Fidelity funds), you might look at buying the TF institutional share classes. Especially for a retirement portfolio which you expect to be selling off (no fees). That saves you a lot in fees over the years.
Specifically: DBLTX ($5K min in an IRA), and if you've got over $250K in your portfolio (total), GLRIX ($50K min = 20% of $250K portfolio).
If you're not averse to having investments in multiple places, you could buy VWIAX directly from Vanguard ($50K min = 40% of a $125K portfolio). Scottrade appears to give you access (with $17 TF) to PIMIX with a $100 (not $100K) min.
Just some minor thoughts. All in all, a nice portfolio.

Hi @FundStudent,
Neither did Old_Skeet get sucked in either.
Being a retail investor, and not a trader, by my valuation matrix indicates stocks, in general, are still to expensive as of Friday market close for the S&P 500 Index (2037) for me to increase my allocation in equities. I am thinking we still have a ways to go before a bottom is reached. Currently, I am looking somewhere around 1950 on the 500 Index before I open shop, during the summer, and devote much time towards my investing endeavors. With this, I am not following the markets during the day but I still do a daily and weekly portfolio close. My overall asset allocation bubbles as follows: cash 25%, bonds 25%, stocks 45% and other 5% according to my latest Instant Xray analysis of 6/03/2016. Please note, this is an adpative allocation, of sorts, that allows for some asset movement (upward or downward) within the allocation, from time-to-time, based upon market climate and my read on the markets. Currently, my range for stocks is 45% to 55% and was up above 65% a few years ago; but, as P/E Ratios have climbed, over the past couple of years, I have reduced my allocation to them.
I wish all a good summer ... and, most of all, "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

O, HCN, WPC and VTR make up my personal REIT collection, and I'm really happy with that team which makes up about 15% of my IRA.
By the way, I added WPC two and a half years ago on a recommendation from Scott who used to contribute here.
Thanks Scott.

Gundlach is the darling of the media. He seeks them out, seems perturbed when they are not drooling at his every word. By contrast, Hasenstab is only in recent years been in the media. He is much less comfortable doing these things than the other two. And all you have to do is listen to him, quickly recognizing he is pretty calm and in no way focused on himself.

PLANS IN THE PIPELINE
In a hastily arranged call with investors and Wall Street analysts early on Wednesday, where Tesla executives defended the deal, Musk said institutional shareholders had some idea of the plan.
He had not disclosed the deal, he said, but over the years, "this idea has been bandied about with some of our largest shareholders, institutional shareholders. Yeah, there have been discussions."
The manager of the second largest mutual fund investor in Tesla, the $12 billion Fidelity OTC Portfolio, which is also the largest institutional holder of SolarCity, praised a tie-up in comments earlier this year.
“We remain fans not just of Tesla products, but of the concepts and potential future partnerships behind the company. We foresee fruitful synergies between say, Tesla and SolarCity – or any company that can benefit from superior battery technology,” Gavin Baker, who runs the Fidelity OTC fund FOCPX , said in his first-quarter commentary for investors. It owns 2.1 percent of shares.
Baker and Will Danoff, who runs the $100 billion-plus Fidelity Contrafund FCNTX, the largest mutual fund investor in Tesla with 3.5 percent of stock, have both told Reuters in interviews that they tend to give more leeway to founder-run companies which they believe are still in the early stages of growth.
Musk, a founder of Tesla and SolarCity who owns about a fifth of each, will recuse himself from board and shareholder votes, leaving the fate of the deal in the hands of outside investors, led by major fund companies such as Fidelity Investments.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/behind-tesla-carnage-signs-support-musks-solarcity-deal-005255105--sector.html?ref=gs
FOPCX
$ 77.31
1-Day Total Return
-0.83 % as of 22 Jun 2016 |
FCNTX
$ 96.89
1-Day Total Return
-0.34 % as of 22 Jun 2016 |
OTCRX SCHEDULE OF SECURITIES SOLD SHORT
AT JANUARY 31, 2016 (Unaudited)
Automobile Manufacturers: 0.9%
11,028 shares
Tesla Motors, Inc
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418916008671/ottercreek-pmp_nq.htm
OTCRX
$ 12.01
1-Day Total Return
+0.25 % as of 22 Jun 2016 |

Is it just me, or has FrankTemp been letting MH out into the media more and more in recent weeks? You never hear from him, and now it seems I come across his name every few days. Could it be anything to do with the ongoing years-old decline in AUM for TPINX/TGBAX?
(I am down to a tiny position myself, having sold out of much of my position recently)

Saying all of these have been disasters is simply wrong. The biggest problems have come with liquid alts that allow the managers to essentially go anywhere, do anything. From our experience, those equity long-short funds that make large macro bets have been the worst. They are either doing extremely well or they are sucking air, mostly the latter of recent.
Other liquid alts have done about as we might have expected them to do. As with all fund categories, some are much better at executing their strategy than others. We have learned that it is very important for investors to know what the fund's strategy is, in what circumstances they ought to do well and where they might struggle, what limitations they have in terms of how they run the strategy, and how the strategy fits in with the investor's portfolio.
The numbers in the article are averages for each category, so the premise is unfair from the beginning. We could use the same thing for pretty much any asset class and run an article saying "(fill in the blank) investments have been a disaster." There are some Market Neutral, some Option Writing, some Multi-Alternative, some managed futures, some hedged equity, some precious metals, some commodities funds that have done pretty much what we would have expected. Most have not, but is that not the case for all fund categories? But then, MarketWatch has become more sensationalized in its headlines in recent years, and most of its writers tend to be that way, too.

Among several other threads from M*Premium folks reporting both major and minor problems with the 'premium' site we pay money to use. For YEARS.
It's beyond pathetic at this point, and I'm making the call tomorrow to nix my auto-renewal of the Premium site access, because after 3 years of problems, it's clear that not only isn't 'premium' premium, but the emphasis for whatever IT folks work there is on their institutional side products, and the retail folks are left hanging in the breeze.

Quote from Morningstar discussion board.
---Portfolio Manager has not been been updating daily fund prices in a timely manner for years.
--Take a look at the "How tiresome ... portfolio again not updated" thread which was started over three years ago and now has over 790 posts from M*'s frustrated customers.

Perhaps if more trades get routed through IEX that will leave the high frequency gang to trade among themselves (spoof each other). It will be interesting to see what kind of volume this new exchange generates. I am thinking that it will grow volume over time; and, I am also hoping this starts the demise of the flash crowd which I believe from what I have read have been scalping the markets now for too many years. Indeed, it is time for this front running high frequency electronic trade activity to stop.