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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Extended performance by Morningstar
    M* extended methodology is used for many reasons. The second on the list is changing its legal structure.
    Last year, QRSIX was moved from one trust run by FPA to another trust run by FPA. Certainly you would not want M* to drop all performance info prior to mid-2023 simply because of a change in legal structure.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170611/000110465923062212/a23-16089_1497.htm
    Consider the CREF funds. They launched their cheapest share class, R4, on April 29, 2022. Should M* should ignore all performance prior to two years ago? Certainly people who own the shares could look at the R3 shares and mentally calculate the difference in performance due to costs. But why? M* can do the same thing with virtually no effort.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/qcstfx/performance
    If we can learn nothing from past performance, then why expect M* to report it at all, for new or old share classes?
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    QLEIX Flows and Return Last 10 Years
    image

    Just extraordinary case of massive inflows followed by massive outflows. But AQR may find some (anti) redemption this time, looks like.
    While I remain a Cliff fan, I grew skeptical of AQR funds. M* says they've flattened their management structure, reduced size of firm (with attendant outflows), and Cliff is again involved in daily ops.
    I noticed too that the AQR has slowly migrated from middle to top on our fund family score card ... 90% of their 22 funds have beaten their peers last 3 years.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/24
    @Sven Would you mind telling where you moved to ? I'm thinking I'll keep rolling CD's & T-bills , while adding to some of the MF's I own. Looking a few years back & I can remember collecting 3% on a two year CD.
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    @mskursh, you have done your fellow employees a great favor to find a decent 401(k) provider, especially form smaller companies with limited resources.
    Last company I worked for has a pension plan but it was poorly managed so that the $ grew very slowly even in the 90’s bull market. Whereas the 401(k) plan was much better in terms of choices (anctive annd passive managed funds) and company matching. Through the years we managed to obtain respectable returns. Near the end of our tenure with the company, they eliminated their contribution to the pension plan and increased their company matching %. Fortunately, it worked out in our favor. Today, there are few pension plan in the private sector unless you work for the state or federal government.
    Is 401(k) worth it? Absolutely, one can do well navigating their future and investment. If you are fortunate to have a good pension, congratulations! AlsoI agree with you that 401k is responsible for more millionaires today.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There is dirty energy and then there is dirtier energy; and "clean" and renewable energy; and then there is energy which comes from a source which produces waste which will have to be juggled and dealt with for 90,000 years into the future. There's only so many useful glass receptacles you can create in order to make the lethal, dangerous fallout inert.
    Everyone's invited into my fraternity: MUTANTS FOR NUKES.
    Our logo: a Happy Face with one ear.
  • Rondure New World Fund will be liquidated
    From an email that I received from Rondure ("Final Shareholder Letter"):
    September 25, 2024
    Dear Fellow Shareholders:
    It is with heavy hearts and thoughtful consideration that we inform you that the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX/RNWIX) will be liquidated on October 18, 2024, and with this closure, we will also be closing Rondure Global Advisors.
    The economic landscape of our emerging markets-focused strategies has been challenging for some time. Our entire team has been dedicated to facing those challenges with the constant objective to achieve long-term positive returns for our clients and investors. Unfortunately, recent unforeseen developments within our business have forced us to reevaluate our ability to continue. It is a painful outcome and certainly not a decision we anticipated ever having to make, particularly when we think emerging markets remain such an interesting and compelling long-term investment. We did not make this decision lightly, but ultimately, consideration of the economic and operational realities of continuing the firm have led us to realize closing is the best outcome for our clients.
    As an investor in the Rondure New World Fund, you have two options: a) redeem your account prior to October 18, 2024, or b) receive a check for the value of the account shortly after October 18th. Note: If you hold the New World Fund in a taxable account, the IRS will consider either option to be a taxable event.
    We would like to thank you for all the years together. It was truly a pleasure serving you; we wish we could continue. We are proud of Rondure and the contribution we’ve made to international investing and diversity within our industry. If you, like us, remain intrigued by the long-term opportunities in the emerging markets space, we have talked with Grandeur Peak Global Advisors about allowing Rondure clients to invest in their soft closed Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Fund (GPEIX). If you’re interested in exploring this option, please reach out to [email protected] to discuss their Fund and a purchase waiver.
    Please let us know if we can be of assistance through this transition, or feel free to call the Rondure Funds shareholder services team at 1-855-775-3337.
    Thank you for your understanding and support.
    Best regards,
    The Rondure Global Advisors Team
    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a Rondure Fund prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.rondureglobal.com or call 1.855.775.3337. To obtain a Grandeur Peak Funds prospectus, containing investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325).
    Rondure Funds and Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC (Member FINRA / SIPC). Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors or Grandeur Peak Global Advisors.
    20240911-3842017
  • First Eagle Global Equity and First Eagle Overseas Equity ETFs in registration
    I have owned their mutual fund SGIIX for many years. The ETF would work better for me as Fidelity charges $49 for each buy and zero for stock transactions.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-9-25-24
    These got my attention -
    The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
    Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
    The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
    The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
    [If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    Hi @mskursh Welcome to MFO. I think you'll find this forum of value.
    And 'hats off to you' for helping co-workers have a better understanding of investing.
    401k's and/or 403b's are surely not perfect depending on the plan sponsor and the amount of support by the employer; but I saw too many over many years who wouldn't have saved a dime if not for having a 401k/403b plan available. And, of course; some will never learn or have prudent spending/saving habits.
    I operated an investment club within a small office and convinced 15 of 25 people to place $100/month into the account and I would manage the money. I also provided a monthly report of all values and totals; and where and why the money was invested. The club operated from 1985 to about 1992, until disbanded by vote. But, the $100/month formed good habits for many; and this helped them later when a 401k plan became available.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • SEC Waiver for SAB 121
    2 issues here. Cryptos & the SEC mode of operation.
    I was pointing to the "Exemption" racket by deliberate misnaming the SEC. So, make tough rules and then grant exemptions one by one, then hundreds, even thousands - unlike IRS Letters or Rulings that are almost treated as added rules.
    So, the SEC allowed eTFs to operate for 30+ years as exemptions for the mutual fund rules - when those were written in 1930s and 1940s, nobody had heard of, or imagined, eTFs. Only a couple of years ago, the SEC had new and formal rules for ETFs - it should have had those in 1990s.
    This ad-hoc way of operation by the SEC is becoming a joke - and the cryptos are just its current football, tomorrow it will be something else.
  • Howard Marks: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?
    Howard Marks credits his initial understanding of different economic systems to a book he read in junior high school!
    Lengthy excerpt from near the conclusion:
    My first step toward understanding the workings of the various economic systems came in junior high school in the late 1950s, when I read George Orwell’s Animal Farm. Orwell wrote it in 1945 as a thinly veiled critique of Russia and communism/socialism. That book taught me most of what I needed to know about free markets versus command economies. If you haven’t read it, or if you read it so long ago that you can’t remember what it says, I suggest you pick it up.
    “In the allegory of Animal Farm, the animals took over the running of the farm. For me, the key lesson emanates from the motto they painted on the barn wall, borrowed from Karl Marx: “From each according to his ability; to each according to his needs.”
    “What an idealistic statement! It would be great if everyone produced all they could, with the more able members of society producing more. And it would be great if everyone got what they need, with needier individuals getting more. But, as the animals on the farm soon learned, if workers only get to keep what they need, there’s no incentive for the more able among them to put in the additional effort required to produce a surplus from which to fill the needs of the less able. The great challenge, of course, is to strike the proper balance: to take enough from the successful in the form of taxes to fund services, government programs, and wealth transfers without eroding their incentive to work or encouraging them to seek out low-tax jurisdictions.
    ” … I did not read the rest of the thread, except the last two posts.”
    Well, I surely would encourage you to read the entire thread. Howard Marks is one of @Mark’s and my favorite financial writers. Admittedly, he can be a tough read. But he provides a valuable, somewhat unique perspective on valuations and investor attitude. ISTM he goes “off the rails” a bit here. I’ve not known him to wade into politics before. But none of us is exempt from all the shouting / loud political posturing and promises being made in the run up to Nov. 5.
    I also thought @Crash made some salient points and his comparison to Denmark adds to Howard Marks’ analysis of the U.S. at this juncture.
    Don’t get caught up in the sparring with OJ. Been going on for about 15 years. Never ends. But truth be told - I like him. And he adds immensely to the board.
  • BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on the Golden Age of fixed income
    I never cared about crowding in bonds and stock funds years ago for about 30 years now. It meant that I'm in the right fund/category and made good money.
    We have been hearing about the big tech companies crowded trade for about 15 years.
    Do I really want to be in the unloved/uncrowded ones that are lagging?
    And that's why I jump on the new leaders, and many times they lead for months and years.
    There is only one undeniable indicator: the price, and why I watch for uptrends. Never predict and never front run.
    Remember: in early 2024 many predicted 6-7 rate cuts and SP500 to finish at about 4900. Both were wrong so far.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Regarding CBYYX where a few are invested including me. I re entered this fund in July after Hurricane Beryl had no impact whatsoever. Hurricane Beryl was a cat 5 and broke all sorts of meteorological records. Yet none of the cat bonds got hit. Since Beryl the cat bonds have been the best performers in Bondville even outperforming the S@P. Oddly enough almost all the gains have come on Fridays. Unlike earlier in the season predictions, this has been a historically quiet hurricane and tropical storm season. Partly due to of all things Sahara dust in the atmosphere.
    There is another possible cat 4 or 5 storm brewing in the Gulf now to be named Helene. It may prove to be much ado about nothing as it is still developing or it could be another Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian was almost two years ago to the date and one of the most destructive on record for the reinsurance market. The cat bonds trading back then plummeted 15% in a matter of a few days. So being better safe than sorry selling out of my cat bond position today. Will probably re enter next week. Going back some twenty years there have only been three hurricanes that have impacted the cat bond market. So the odds of this impeding weather pattern being meaningful is extremely low. But again, for me would prefer to err on the side of caution.
    https://www.artemis.bm/news/helene-may-strike-gulf-coast-as-hurricane-this-week-wide-range-of-model-intensity-forecasts/
  • A chuckle from Jack Hough … And a sober note from Dennis Jean-Jacques (This week’s Barron’s)
    +1 / Yes, that’s pretty much the gist of the more bearish money managers I’ve listened to of late. One I heard recently (sorry don’t have name) thinks China will blockade Taiwan sometime in the next 10 years. Doesn’t see an effective U.S. response. I don’t know …. Just passing on …
    Fear is not an investment strategy.
  • Howard Marks: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?
    "...In the world of politics, there can be limitless benefits and something for everyone. But in economics, there are only tradeoffs."
    Quoting Gore Vidal, again: "politics" comes from the Greek, poly, meaning many. And tics, which are bloodsucking insects.
    I've not kept up with the Scandinavian picture. Some years ago, I saw a thing explaining about Denmark: you can make more than (equivalent) $300,000.00. But most of whatever you make over that figure goes to taxes. When there are no limits on "wealth creation" (euphemism for evil greed,) you get obscenities like Musk and Bezos and The Zuck... Oops, I forgot: ethics and economics and stock markets and all the rest of it must never be connected. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    Yup. And is financial literacy even YET taught at all in schools? I see the logic of Tarwheel's comparison of pensions with annuities. But annuities come with hefty fees. Pensions are just simply provided each month, eh? I looked into a deferred charitable annuity, but the outfit I was in contact with was just making it too hard, offering info on some specifics which were incorrect. She was answering the wrong questions. So, I'll just do the charitable thing on my own. Lastly, am I among the super-lucky? My pension grows a bit each year; not matched to inflation, but to the former employer's portfolio performance. It's very well balanced with stocks, bonds, alternatives. Even in bad Market years, we get at least a minimal bump-up.
  • A chuckle from Jack Hough … And a sober note from Dennis Jean-Jacques (This week’s Barron’s)
    Always enjoy reading Jack Hough’s regular Barron’s column.
    ”Brace for stimulation. The Federal Reserve just slashed interest rates for the first time in four years to goose the economy. Already, young families shopping among seven-figure teardowns near city centers can finance them at 6.1%, down from 6.5% a month ago. Housing crisis solved.
    “Next is supposed to be a rip-roaring stock market rally, as falling rates spur company profits and reduce the relative allure of bonds. I'm thinking about celebrating with something only rich people can afford, like dinner and a movie.”

    Article - ”The Stock Market Is Priced for Middling Returns From Here On”
    Barron’s September 23, 2024
    Author: Jack Hough
    -
    A more sober note from Dennis Jean-Jacques, founder and chief investment officer of Ocean Park Investments:
    ”We are in a more fragile state than when interest rates were near zero and the world was largely at peace. Today, while the market is at its highs, there is significantly more uncertainty—given war in the Middle East, China’s property troubles, and the coming U.S. election. Household allocations to equities are at record levels, which makes us uneasy. Credit spreads are historically low, reflecting a perception of reduced risk.”
    Article - ”This Money Manager Likes Durable Businesses. 4 Industrial Stocks He’s Got His Eye On.”
    Barron’s September 23, 2024
    Author: Reshma Kapadia
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    "But it seems idiotic to expect every Tom, Dick & Harry to possess the foresight and financial discipline to save for something that may well be 30+ years away and to have enough stashed at that point to make it last another 30 years if necessary. Maybe the guy’s a great construction worker, or reliable mechanic or metal worker or whatever. That doesn’t endow him with the financial know how or discipline to make the 401K viable."
    +1
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    I don’t have the answer. But it seems idiotic to expect every Tom, Dick & Harry to possess the foresight and financial discipline to save for something that may well be 30+ years away and to have enough stashed at that point to make it last another 30 years if necessary. Maybe the guy’s a great construction worker, or reliable mechanic or metal worker or whatever. That doesn’t endow him with the financial know how or discipline to make the 401K viable. Many don’t save enough, raid the money when younger or in their first few years of retirement or make bad investment decisions. Now, if they did all of the preceding correctly, they still wouldn’t know when they would die and how to make their assets last precisely the right length of time. Albeit - buying an annuity would partially solve the latter issue,
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    +1.
    I recall applying for SS and being told I'd be receiving reduced benefits. Because I had "non-covered" jobs for a lotta years. But I'd ALWAYS paid in. I had to go to the local office in person. Then they fixed their mistake. Stupid system, when they can say that to a guy like me.

    I do not get why the SS office employees are trying to not give people their legitimate earned benefits. Who are they serving with their behavior? I do not understand their motives.
    Ya, I was pissed. What they could not see (or misidentified?) was all of my payments into "self-employment tax" due to the fact that I worked for a church as a clergyman for many years. I could have chosen to opt out of SS, but that would have been extremely stupid. And the opt-out choice = declaring that I have a religious or ethical problem with SS. That's just not true for me. So, I did NOT opt-out. Glad I didn't. The Superv. at the local SS office looked at my previous 2 tax returns, and then my listed benefit jumped up by $500/month. But they treated me with contempt along the way. I was dealt with as if I were a liar. Liars exist on the bottom of the ocean, with the whale shit. He said he was sorry for that, "but we have to deal with lots of people trying to cheat."
    For SS purposes, clergy are self-employed. For federal tax purposes, clergy are employees. Ridiculous, silly, crazy, stupid and nuts.