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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Crossing Bridge question
    @mnz,
    Your second post revealed a lot more.
    Are you a trader? Welcome to my sandbox.
    Most investors like to hold for a couple of years.
    If you can predict rates in the nearest future, you can do pretty well. I also think that rates fell in anticipation for the Fed and why in the next several months we will not see the same magnitude.
    BTW, FEHAX beat your funds for YTD and no Fed taxes.
    About one manager VS a team. I made most of my money with special managers. They are the ones with great risk/reward.
  • Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home?
    If you liked ”CDs/Tbills/MMKT funds” a year ago, you should love them now. On a relative basis they’ve gotten cheaper. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are ahead more than 27% year-over-year. I wouldn’t be throwing new money into the latter.
    “Walls of money” is a curious figure of speech. Apparently reference to cash-centric investors who were happy to settle for 5 - 5.5% returns, but who are disillusioned at the prospect of 4 - 4.5%? It’s all relative. The higher rates were available as consumer prices spiked 5 or 6% year-over-year. With annual price rises coming in at half that (or less) the return on safe money should be lower - a lot lower.
    If the question is about where to get the best short-term interest rates now, it’s a good question. I don’t really know. You pretty much have to “go with the flow” and take what’s available (if you want super-safe money). If you have a 3 year time horizon … maybe short to intermediate term bond funds? NEAR was mentioned recently. I’m looking at that and also TDTT. For 5 years out I’m using CVSIX and LQDH for my conservative money. Should net a percent or so over cash. But over shorter periods both have the potential to lose money.
    BTW - TBUX is highly rated. But it is what it is - an ultra-short bond fund. (“Nothing to see here. Move on.”)
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Right. McClain says he'd not be buying here, neither short nor long. (Treasuries, right?)
    Goldberg said "It's tough to chase this rally." Correct.
    I bought junk at just the wrong time a couple of years ago. I watched it drop, then rise, while reinvesting dividends. Dead money for 2 years, but now I'm in the black with it. The time to buy was a little while ago. And I've just spread out into a core-plus, higher quality bond fund. If everything goes south with HY, I'll know what to do.
  • PWC China Operations
    "China suspended the operations of PricewaterhouseCoopers for six months and imposed a record penalty over lapses in its auditing of China Evergrande Group. The accounting firm was fined 441 million yuan ($62 million) for its work on Evergrande’s inflated financial reports from 2018 to 2020. Regulators also ordered the closure of PwC’s branch in Guangzhou. PwC has been under scrutiny since China launched one of the biggest investigations of financial fraud in history. Authorities have said developer Evergrande’s main onshore unit Hengda overstated its revenue by 564 billion yuan in the two years through 2020. PwC “turned a blind eye” to Evergrande’s fraud, securities regulators said."
    I want to know how much PWC paid to CCP to get away with a meagre $62M fine. That is peanuts.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    I just read a little blurb on AP. In the contract there is a 25% salary gain over 4 years. Dang, doesn't sound bad to me. Cola is key.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Some 96 percent of union members voted in favor of the strike, rejecting a proposal that would have boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other demands.
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post.
    SEATTLE — Boeing workers picketed outside the company’s plants in Washington state early Friday morning after voting overwhelmingly to strike. Tens of thousands of machinists voted Thursday to reject a proposed deal between the company and the union that would have significantly boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other union demands.
    Some 96 percent of members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 voted in favor of the strike — far more than the two-thirds needed to launch the work stoppage.
    The walkout is a stinging rebuke for Boeing and could represent the most disrupting challenge yet for a company that has spent much of this year in damage control as it careened from crisis to crisis.
    The strike risks derailing the aerospace giant’s recovery from ongoing financial and safety challenges and could cost the cash-strapped company an estimated $1 billion per week, according to analysts. The union plays a key role in assembling some of the company’s best-selling aircraft.
    The most direct impact is on Boeing’s assembly plants in Washington, especially in Everett and Renton. An extended work stoppage could also impact Boeing suppliers and possibly shrink its share of the aerospace market.
    Machinists in Seattle said the strike was long coming: “We just want to be treated right and they’re not doing it,” said mechanic Charles Fromong, who has worked for Boeing for more than 37 years. “So I guess we’re going to get it done.”
    Boeing said early Friday that it would return to the bargaining table: “The message was clear that the tentative agreement we reached with IAM leadership was not acceptable to the members,” the company said in a statement. “We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”
    After a string of tense, marathon negotiating sessions over the last several weeks, the IAM and Boeing announced Sunday that they had reached a tentative four-year agreement, including a 25 percent pay increase over four years and enhanced health and retirement benefits. Also significant: If workers had voted to accept the deal before the current contract, Boeing committed to building its next new aircraft in Washington state, a key union demand. Both sides and investors had cheered the deal.
    “Four years is not enough to make up for the last 16,” Boeing worker Roger Ligrano said before he voted. He said he was voting to strike, in part, to give union members more time to understand a deal.
    Harold Ruffalo, who has worked for Boeing for 28 years, said after the vote results were announced that too much corporate greed is impacting the company, and workers need more money to live as inflation hits paychecks.
    The Biden administration was monitoring the situation; acting Labor Secretary Julie Su has been in contact with both sides.
    Leading up to the strike deadline, analysts said they were worried about how long a strike would last. They said that many workers have not forgotten previous rounds of negotiations in which Boeing pushed for concessions — including the end of the traditional pension program — to keep aircraft production in Washington state.
    Michael Bruno, Aviation Week Network’s executive editor for business, said in previous rounds of negotiations Boeing threatened to move airplane production to other states to extract concessions from the union, which soured relations.
    The last time IAM members struck was in 2008, a 57-day day walkout that Moody’s estimated cost Boeing about $1.5 billion a month. Boeing reopened negotiations on that contract twice, in 2011 and in 2013, and won significant concessions from workers.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    $$$ I'm babysitting for a fellow is in a TRP acct, limited to TRP funds. If/when the time comes, I'll move him from junk TUHYX into global multi-sector PRSNX. Good performance history, there. We've both owned it in the past, too. I'm hoping to be able to just sit with my junk. There's been no crisis--- yet.
    PRSNX is at the front side of the belly, 4.46 years. Yield is up to 5.04%, even as the fund has risen YTD by +4.63%.
    Compare TUHYX: domestic junk. YTD +6.04%, but in the bottom half of category... Yield = 7.41%. Scrumptious.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prsnx/quote
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TUHYX/quote
  • WFC Wells... big surprise.
    Sept. 12, 2024:
    "Citi analyst Keith Horowitz calls Wells Fargo’s formal agreement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency related to deficiencies concerning its financial crimes risk management as a “step back.” However, this is not a consent order and does not include a monetary civil penalty, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, the firm does not expect a meaningful change to the expense outlook and it notes Wells reiterated its outlook as recently as this week. The stock traded down 4% on the news, which “seems strong” but reflects the overhang from existing consent orders, contends Citi. It keeps a Neutral rating on the shares with a $63 price target."
    ****************
    Sept. 13, 2024:
    "JPMorgan says that in a “significant new negative development” for Wells Fargo, the bank’s anti-money laundering issue is back with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announcing an enforcement agreement for anti-money laundering and financial crimes “on an enterprise-wide basis, not just a particular business area.” The news is very surprising given that Wells had resolved a consent order for anti-money laundering in January 2021 after many years of work and expense, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says fixing this will likely add to operating expenses and much of the expense will likely be ongoing. It will also slow the bank’s growth and expansion, the firm contends. JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Wells Fargo."
    Source: The Fly.
  • Comparing APYs
    There are two different figures here, and they may be getting mixed up.
    One is interest rate (not yield) assuming daily compounding. The other is total annual return. The former is indeed lower than the stated rate of a T-bill, though the latter is higher than the T-bill's stated rate.
    Consider bank accounts at two banks. One bank compounds interest monthly, one compounds daily. For simplicity I'll work with 30 day months and 360 day years. It doesn't change the reasoning, it just makes the numbers easier to follow.
    The monthly one says that it has an APR (not compounded yield) of 6%. Each month, it pays 1/2% interest. Its APY (compounding 12 times) is 6.17%.
    The daily one says that it has an APR of 5.9855%. Each day, it pays 0.001663% (1/360th of the APR). With daily compounding that comes out to 1/2% each month and an APY of 6.17%. Same as the other bank.
    Now instead of bank accounts, think of a T-bill with a one month maturity. (It's hypothetical, real T-bills mature in 4 weeks.) Let's say that like these banks, at maturity (in one month) you get back 1/2% more than you invested.
    The stated yield on the T-bill would be 1/2% annualized, i.e. 12 x 1/2% = 6%. Assuming you reinvest each month in a T-bill with the same terms, you'd have 6.17% more than you started with at the end of the year because of monthly compounding. That's higher than the stated yield.
    But if we hypothesize that the T-bill is actually compounding on a daily basis for a month, then it would be like the bank that compounds daily. Its daily APR would be 5.9855%. That's lower than the stated yield of 6% and lower still than the 6.17% you would get by reinvesting these T-bills for a year.
    This is how one can come up with both a lower rate (assuming daily compounding) and a higher total return (by reinvesting over the course of a year) than the stated rate of a T-bill.
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    @yogibearbull,
    "2017 TCJA is good until 12/31/25. That means that not much will change for individual or corporate tax rates for the tax filing years 2025 and 2026. But things would change after 2 tax filing years."
    Congress can change existing laws, notwithstanding the effective date of the those laws.
    Below are some answers from Claude -
    "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 did not significantly change the individual long-term capital gains tax rates. Here's an overview of what remained the same and what minor adjustments were made:
    Basic rate structure:
    The TCJA maintained the same three-tier rate structure for long-term capital gains that existed before the law:
    0%
    15%
    20%
    Income thresholds:
    The income thresholds at which these rates apply were kept, but they are now indexed to inflation using a different measure (chained CPI) which generally results in slower increases over time.
    Additional Net Investment Income Tax:
    The TCJA did not change the additional 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax that applies to individuals with income above certain thresholds.
    Collectibles and certain small business stock:
    The 28% maximum rate on long-term capital gains from collectibles and certain small business stock was maintained.
    Unrecaptured Section 1250 gain:
    The 25% maximum rate on unrecaptured Section 1250 gain (related to depreciation on real estate) was also kept in place.
    Holding period:
    The one-year holding period to qualify for long-term capital gains treatment remained unchanged.
    While the TCJA made significant changes to many areas of the tax code, the treatment of individual long-term capital gains remained largely the same. The most notable impact on capital gains taxation was indirect, through changes to ordinary income tax rates and brackets, which can affect the overall tax situation of investors."
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    2017 TCJA is good until 12/31/25. That means that not much will change for individual or corporate tax rates for the tax filing years 2025 and 2026. But things would change after 2 tax filing years.
  • Question about trading (round trip) restrictions on Fidelity funds …
    Perhaps you're thinking of The Road Not Taken, for that has made all the difference.
    Excellent. Frost might have been lamenting a choice of investments in his earlier years. :) :)
  • STSEX Fund
    There is CHNTX, Chestnut Street Exchange Fund, which is also closed to investors. I have been both of the funds for years.
  • Question about trading (round trip) restrictions on Fidelity funds …
    ”Pardon the obvious suggestion here: try asking Fidelity.” :)
    Well, I enjoyed @msf’s attempt to make sense of Fido’s wording & updates. Was seriously considering buying the Fidelity bond fund Yogi referenced in a different thread. My concern wasn’t a desire to trade in & out but a recognition I maintain almost 0 cash reserve, So, in the event an emergency expense occurred (my car dies or something like that) I might need to withdraw some of those funds in stages earlier than anticipated. That’s one of the nicer features of ETFs and CEFs.
    Another obvious question: ”Why don’t you keep more in cash?” - Don’t know. Just isn’t the way I’ve done it over the years. May I suggest reading Robert Frost’s poem “Mending Wall” for further insights into this kind of thinking?
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    Wikipedia explains it really well and provides some similar analogies. I’ve used ”the pot calling the kettle black “ countless times over the years. Because an overly critical listener might unjustly allege racial overtones, I’ve pretty much avoided it in recent years. Suspect it has fallen into disuse in recent years on that account.
    From the linked article:
    ”The pot calling the kettle black" is a proverbial idiom that may be of Spanish origin, of which English versions began to appear in the first half of the 17th century. It means a situation in which somebody accuses someone else of a fault which the accuser shares, and therefore is an example of psychological projection or hypocrisy.
    The earliest appearance of the idiom is in Thomas Shelton's 1620 translation of the Spanish novel Don Quixote. The protagonist is growing increasingly restive under the criticisms of his servant Sancho Panza, one of which is that "You are like what is said that the frying-pan said to the kettle, 'Avant, black-browes'."
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    The idea is to be in good categories, because markets proved they can be one sided for many years. I never understood why investors are overdiversified.
    MFO is an amazing place to find great risk/reward managed funds, but I hardly see discussions about it.
    How can anyone miss PIMIX great performance from 2009 to the end of 2017? or PRWCX for 2-3 decades? or SPY since 2010?
    In the last 3 years compare ICMUX, BND, DODIX(good bond funds). The chart (https://schrts.co/cQPAWsgM) shows total returns: ICMUX=16.8%...DODIX=0.1%...BND=(-5.2).
    See ratings at MFO (https://www.member.mfopremium.com/riskprofile)
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    BND(US total bond index) the most recommended bond fund made only 1.6% annually in the last 10 years.
    I’ve done a lot of looking recently at bond funds (investment grade). It’s shocking how poorly they have performed over the past 10 years. I ran comparisons at Fido using CVSIX and LQDH against many bond funds (and also compared results to many bond CEFs). Both are low-volatility arbitrage strategies often viewed as cash substitutes. Interestingly, both have stomped short-term bond funds and ultra-shorts over 10 years as well as just about every other investment grade bond fund. They’ve even managed to outshine Price’s Spectrum Income Fund (RPSIX) which typically allocates 10%+ to equities. I don’t mess with high yield - so don’t know. But as FD says, investment grade bond fund returns have stunk for the past decade.
    To be fair, 2022 was disastrous for bonds / bond funds and does tend to distort their recent performance numbers. Disclosure: I own CVSIX. Have considered owning LQDH.
    @bee - Thanks for the computation & especially for the reminder about inflation. Too many folks I know personally regret not factoring in that second item in their retirement planning. More important than ever due to the miracles of modern medicine and lengthened life-spans.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    @low_tech

    Using PV with 4% withdrawal for 10 years shows that starting with one million ended at $779K(rounding) while SPY ended at 2.23 million.
    My Comment:
    PV also provide a inflation adjusted amount:
    $779K = $558K (inflation adjusted)
    $2.23M = $1.6M (inflation adjusted)
    Keep in mind that Inflation plays a silent role in reducing your buying power and your wealth.

    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2yCWNHHnyii8C3LxrBfKrb
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    @low_tech
    Who cares about the 4% "rule" when most bond funds are paying that and more, maybe much more? Just take the bond interest instead of eroding the asset base by selling anything.
    Let's test the above. BND(US total bond index) the most recommended bond fund made only 1.6% annually in the last 10 years.
    SPY made "only" 12+%.
    Using PV with 4% withdrawal for 10 years shows that starting with one million ended at $779K(rounding) while SPY ended at 2.23 million.
    Another proof that total return is always the most important aspect of investing. Many investors, especially retirees, also care about risk-adjusted performance.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2yCWNHHnyii8C3LxrBfKrb