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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    @hank With a lot of threads today, tis like reading a short book here.
    I'll add this back from a previous post regarding the 2008 TARP program.
    Note: these 'loans' did carry interest and was expected to be repaid to the Treasury. The Treasury did have a profit when all was settled and done from the various loans.
    The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was instituted by the U.S. Treasury following the 2008 financial crisis. TARP stabilized the financial system by having the government buy mortgage-backed securities and bank stocks. From 2008 to 2010, TARP invested $426.4 billion in firms and recouped $441.7 billion in return.
    ---Perhaps the Treasury will have some profit for the efforts. :) I don't know the terms of the 'bail' monies.
    Flashback: During the GFC, Bloomberg and CNBC became all-nighters. No info-mercials, etc. 24 hours of everything! SO, if what started Friday could have become systemic; then the actions taken were intended to deliver a full punch here and now. One can only imagine the meetings, phone calls and data crunching of banking records/data. Although, I watched Ms. Yellen this morning state that there would not be a bailout.
    NOW, how about a full audit (any organization that is involved with the any form of banking in this country, plain and clear text without any of the cockeyed and perverted auditing standards that have taken place over the years) available to the public every month, online for free.
    Overview: Still better than China, and that we have a 'form' of 'rule of law', as perverted as it may be.
    Good evening.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    @catch22- As you would know from our conversations over the years, I have no tolerance for government rescue of institutions or businesses that get into trouble due to stupidity or greed.
    But it's painfully obvious that in today's financial environment there are certain types of businesses that have a need to maintain very large amounts of cash which is readily available for deployment on short notice.
    It's absurd to leave our entire financial and banking system open to the inevitable mismanagement which is guaranteed to occur from time to time, and which then repeatedly threatens the entire financial system. I believe that we need to provide a safe place for businesses to easily and safely deposit large amounts of money without requiring those businesses to fend for themselves in managing those deposits.
    To characterize such an arrangement as a "government takeover/nationalization" is ridiculous, when for all practical purposes that is exactly what the government is now forced to do in any case, to save the rest of the system from self-destruction.
    < end rant />
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    I didn't realize that such an option existed. But I'll tell you straight out: I wouldn't trust ANY private operation in the long run. That's just transferring the risk of loss from a poorly managed bank to a possibly poorly managed private concern. So they get in trouble: then what? I believe that such an operation needs to be an integral part of the overall government financial system.
    Isn't that exactly what the FDIC & the government are doing right now with SVB?
    U.S. says all deposits at failed Silicon Valley Bank will be available Monday
  • Signature Bank becomes next casualty of banking turmoil after SVB
    March 12 (Reuters) - State regulators closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) on Sunday, the third largest failure in U.S. banking history, two days after authorities shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) in a collapse that stranded billions in deposits.
    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took control of Signature, which had $110.36 billion in assets and $88.59 in deposits at the end of last year, according to New York state's Department of Financial Services.
    All of the depositors of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank will be made whole, and "no losses will be borne by the taxpayer," the U.S. Treasury Department and other bank regulators said in a joint statement.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Well here's what I'm seeing: It's just a fact that in today's financial arena there are certain types of businesses that have a need to maintain very large amounts of cash which is readily available for deployment on short notice.
    As far as I can see, the financial system, generally speaking, does not really have any mechanism to provide this "safe haven".
    Now if the Fed, FDIC, or some appropriate government agency were to provide a "safe-deposit" facility for deposits over 250k, and charge a reasonable fee for providing that service, then depositors who did not use such a facility would have no recourse other than to blame themselves if they did not use such a service.
    How could that be done? Well what if the FDIC or some other responsible government agency were set up to accept these large deposits, and then redistribute that cash in small deposit amounts to all of the banks in the FDIC system? This would certainly provide safety for that money, as for sure not all of the banks in the FDIC system are likely to get in trouble all at the same time.
    I just think that businesses needing a safe haven for large amounts of cash should be able to have a simple and safe solution. They should be able to concentrate on running their primary business, and not be required to to operate an in-house financial group just to keep track of their deposits.
    @msf, @yogibearbull- I would appreciate your comments on this.
  • Which Funds Are Taking the Biggest Hit From Silicon Valley Bank and Other Bank Stocks
    I think Yogi is right here, though, that the KRE ETF did actually fall on Thursday and Friday. My question here is similar to the Washington Mutual debacle, when active fund managers kept holding that one straight into its meltdown. How do they not see the significant risks involved, with in this case, rising rates and depositor withdrawals?
    This reminds me of Bill Nygren's Washington Mutual bet during the Global Financial Crisis.
  • Which Funds Are Taking the Biggest Hit From Silicon Valley Bank and Other Bank Stocks
    There are several stinkers in KRE, that have lost a significant amount in the last year. NO SVB but there is first Republic.
    Even babies like Webster Bank, and Citizens Financial local CT MA community banks are getting tossed out with the bathwater
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/fed-and-treasury-weigh-emergency-authority-for-deposit-backstop?srnd=premium
    It's one thing for the Fed to want ordinary Americans to lose their jobs by raising rates. But it's another if banks and their biggest wealthiest customers who have more than the FDIC limits in accounts are in trouble.
    The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are preparing emergency measures to shore up banks and ensure they can meet potential demands by their customers to withdraw money, as the US seeks to stave off a deeper crisis after SVB Financial Group’s failure.
    The Fed is planning to ease the terms of banks’ access to its discount window, giving firms a way to turn assets that have lost value into cash without the kind of losses that toppled SVB’s Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed and Treasury are also preparing a program to backstop deposits using the Fed’s emergency lending authority.
    The changes under discussion were described by people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named because the talks are confidential. Representatives for the Fed and Treasury had no comment.
    Regulators are discussing extraordinary measures as banks face the prospect of booking losses if customers pull uninsured deposits after the swift collapse of SVB rattled financial markets last week and left its clients in the lurch. A flood of withdrawals can force banks to sell assets such as bonds that have deteriorated in value amid interest-rate increases — the dynamic behind SVB’s demise.
  • Which Funds Are Taking the Biggest Hit From Silicon Valley Bank and Other Bank Stocks
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1143550/which-funds-are-taking-the-biggest-hit-on-silicon-valley-bank-and-other-bank-stocks
    It's one thing for a fund in general to hold bank stocks. It's another for an active fund with a manager to bet big on SVB. Did these managers not look at the bank's capital/balance sheet and see that it was heavily invested in long-term bonds in a rising rate environment, while also facing tech sector depositor withdrawals? In this regard, Diamond Hill Mid Cap, usually a careful risk-conscious shop, deserves to be dinged. As do, BBH and Sound Shore and Franklin Mutual. From the article:
    In [Diamond Hill Mid Cap's] shareholder commentary from the end of 2022, manager Chris Welch acknowledged the stock was facing difficulties. “Regional banks First Republic and SVB Financial were pressured amid a rising rate environment, which is weighing on net interest margins.”
    Welch singled out the unique position of Silicon Valley Bank. “SVB Financial faced additional headwinds given its exposure to the innovation economy, its primary area of focus—though we believe such an environment offers the company an opportunity to add tremendous value for its clients and cement its leadership position in a lucrative space,” he wrote.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Echoes from Europe...
    Excerpts from an article in The Guardian:
    The UK government is scrambling to secure an emergency deal to protect Britain’s tech and life sciences sectors from major losses after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), as financial markets braced for further volatility after the biggest bank failure since 2008.
    The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, signalled on Sunday that they were exploring a range of options, including an emergency fund that could provide a cash lifeline to support startups, as bidders put their hat in the ring for a potential takeover of the UK subsidiary.
    Hunt warned that fledgling businesses across the tech and life sciences sector were at “serious risk” if deposits were wiped out by the collapse of SVB UK.
    The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said on Sunday there would be no bailout for Silicon Valley Bank, but that the Biden administration was working closely with regulators to help depositors caught up in its collapse.
    UK authorities were understood to be considering a private bailout. Representatives of SVB’s UK subsidiary have reached out to lenders including NatWest, Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group to gauge interest in a potential takeover of the British operations.
    British clearing bank the Bank of London confirmed on Sunday night it had submitted a rescue bid for the UK arm, alongside a group of private equity firms. “Silicon Valley Bank cannot be allowed to fail given the vital community it serves,” said Bank of London’s chief executive, Anthony Watson.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    I just received this from First Republic Bank:

    To Our Valued Clients,
    In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets. We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.
    Our capital remains strong. Our capital levels are significantly higher than the regulatory requirements for being considered well capitalized.
    Our liquidity remains strong. In addition to our well-diversified deposit base, we continue to have access to over $60 billion of available, unused borrowing capacity at the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank.
    We are here to fully serve you. We stand ready to process transactions and wires, fund loans, answer questions and serve your overall financial needs — as we do every day.
    For almost 40 years, we have operated a simple, straightforward business model centered on taking extraordinary care of our clients. We have successfully navigated various macroeconomic and interest rate environments, and today we have among the industry’s highest rates of client satisfaction and retention.
    FWIW...
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    BBG: "Dick Bove at Odeon Capital Group LLC notes “that reduction in bank deposits and the sharp negative reaction in the financial markets to the SVB developments suggest a deeper discontent with the banking industry’s treatment of their clients and investors.”
    I don't often listen to Bove, but I think he's on to something here -- when individuals see that they're being offered pissant amounts of interest on their money by the bank in an age where can get 4 or 5% from treasuries (and that fact is making frontpage news daily), is it any wonder folks are feeling 'discontented' and looking to move their money?
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    "All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.” - John Kenneth Galbraith. It is the same story over and over again with each crash. Greed causes people to make leveraged bets to amplify returns on borrowed money and then at some point leveraged bets implode. If the problem was an unleveraged position failing, only the initial investor would lose their money, but when leverage is involved a chain reaction of borrowers and lenders also implode and the problem snowballs, especially as depositors/investors try to withdraw their money, but there is not enough money because of losses to pay them back. As another saying, goes, "If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." This scenario has occurred repeatedly throughout financial history. It is the reason why enlightened economists demand regulation of the financial sector and a social safety net to deal with the inevitable dislocations capitalism creates via leverage. The question is here whether the existing safeguards such as the FDIC insurance system can contain the crash. It seems like they can from what I'm reading: https://nytimes.com/2023/03/11/technology/silicon-valley-bank-failure-lessons.html I think, or at least hope, the fallout will be temporary and limited.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    More... from the WSJ:
    Updated March 12, 2023 4:09 pm ET
    In addition, regulators are considering more extraordinary measures such as deeming the failure of SVB to be a systemic risk to the financial system, people familiar with the matter said. That could give regulators more flexibility to backstop uninsured deposits.
    A U.S. plan that soothes nerves about access to uninsured deposits—most of the bank’s deposits are sizable enough that they don’t carry Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protection—could tamp down the crisis and limit any impact on the economy as the Federal Reserve focuses on combating inflation by raising interest rates.
    But failing to swiftly clarify how SVB’s customers can access funds, make payroll and conduct business risks broader economic consequences and threatens to complicate the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
    “I’ve been working all weekend with our banking regulators to design appropriate policies to address this situation,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on Face the Nation on CBS Sunday.
  • Schwab...
    @Sven. “Schwab is a public trade company with a financial arm that caused all this headache.” Can you please explain what this means. Thanks
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Per BBG .... FED: The Federal Reserve is considering easing the terms of banks’ access to its discount window, giving firms a way to turn assets that have lost value into cash without the kind of losses that toppled SVB Financial Group, write Bloomberg’s Hannah Levitt, Sridhar Natarajan and Matthew Monks.
    I haven't thought about the discount window since the GFC....which suggests they're more than a bit worried about systemic risk/contagion?
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Janet Yellen: NPR:
    Janet Yellen says the federal government won't bail out Silicon Valley Bank, will bail out depositors...
    March 12, 2023, 2:08 PM ET
    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. government won't bail out Silicon Valley Bank as it did with other financial institutions during the 2008 financial crisis, but she noted that regulators are working to ensure people and businesses with money in the failed bank would be made whole.
    Personal comment: An interesting distinction, and one that I originally argued for in another thread.
    "The reforms that have been put in place means that we're not going to do that again," Yellen said when asked about a bailout during a Sunday appearance on CBS's Face the Nation.
    "But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs," she added.
    The fate of Silicon Valley Bank, or SVB, and its customers had been up in the air over the weekend, days after federal regulators took control of the institution following a "run" on the bank by depositors.
    Customers had been flooding the bank with requests to withdraw their money, and earlier last week SVB said it had to sell bonds at a steep loss in order to meet those requests. That announcement worsened the panic over SVB's financial situation and led to even more withdrawal attempts until regulators stepped in.
    The collapse of SVB marks one of the largest failures of an American bank since the 2008 global financial crisis.
    SVB had carved out a niche in the banking sector by lending to tech startups, but the recent financial problems facing the tech industry put a strain on the bank, and caused its stock price to tank.
    Yellen said that, despite the collapse of SVB, she believes the overall American banking system "is really safe and well-capitalized" and "resilient."
    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Friday that all insured depositors would have full access to their insured funds no later than Monday morning. The agency also said it would pay uninsured depositors an "advance dividend" in the next week, and that depositors would be sent a "receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds."
    An independent federal agency, the FDIC doesn't use taxpayer money to insure deposits, but rather is funded through premiums paid by member banks and savings associations.
    Regulators in the United Kingdom were also working on a plan to ensure that customers of SVB's UK branch were paid.
    The bank's collapse has left tech companies and other SVB customers in limbo, and it's even caused headaches for others not directly connected to the bank, such as Etsy sellers who were told they may see delays in receiving payments because the online marketplace uses SVB to make some payments.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    People saw that if HTM was market to market, SVB was operating with negative equity since September. All that needed was some trigger for the run, and some say that rumors of it going under spread like wildfire on Twitter this week. And it happened.
    Worrisome thing is that this can happen to almost 2 dozen banks right now.
    @yogibearbull, think that accounts for the financial sector that fell almost twice as much as the S&P500 this week. Value-oriented funds/ETFs having higher % exposure to financial sector are impacted more.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Per WaPo just now:
    "Federal authorities are seriously considering safeguarding all uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, weighing an extraordinary intervention to prevent what they fear would be a panic in the U.S. financial system, according to three people with knowledge of the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations.
    Officials at the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation discussed the idea this weekend, the people said, with only hours to go before financial markets opened in Asia. White House officials have also studied the idea, per two separate people familiar with those discussions
    The plan would be among the potential policy responses if the government is unable to find a buyer for the failed bank. The FDIC began an auction process for SVB on Saturday and hoped to identify a winning bidder Sunday afternoon, with final bids expected by 2 p.m. ET, according to two people familiar with the matter."
    ... let's see. Asian markets and futures open in a little over 2 hours' time, so presumably there will be some type of announcement beforehand...?
    More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/fed-fdic-discussing-backstop-to-make-svb-depositors-whole-and-stem-contagion-fears-source.html
  • Schwab...
    Schwab is a public trade company with a financial arm that caused all this headache. What about Fidelity and Vanguard and they are not public traded firms? Will T. Rowe Price runs into similar issue as Schwab?