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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Life Estate document, anyone familiar; creating, using, either as Grantee or Grantor ?
    Hi @msf
    Thank you for your time and effort with the reply.
    I'd already done research on this topic, and you've added further to the research.
    Aside from any other conditions/circumstances; it appears that a Life Estate establishes a cost basis for the remainderman upon the death of the Grantor. Obviously, being of benefit; if and when the remainderman chooses to sell.
    And if one chooses to use T.O.D.'s and/or P.O.D. 's for various other financial assets to help smooth some account(s) transactions upon death.
    I've added some additional information regarding Michigan in particular.
    Hopefully, others may have benefit with this topic.
    Regards,
    Catch
    This method also exists in Michigan:
    *** What is the Lady Bird law in Michigan?
    In Michigan, a Lady Bird Deed (also known as a Ladybird Deed or Enhanced Life Estate Deed) is a type of Quitclaim Deed that allows you, the creator, to transfer your property upon your death to a named beneficiary without having to go through the expensive and time consuming Probate process.
    --- A copy/paste regarding Michigan estate/inheritance:
    Does Michigan Have an Inheritance Tax or Estate Tax?
    Michigan does not have an inheritance tax. Its inheritance and estate taxes were created in 1899, but the state repealed them in 2019.
    Its estate tax technically remains on the books, but since 2005 there has been no mechanism for it to collect it. That’s because Michigan’s estate tax depended on a provision in the Internal Revenue Tax Code allowing a state estate tax credit against the federal estate tax. When congress eliminated that credit in 2005, it effectively killed Michigan’s estate tax.
    Note that estate and inheritance taxes are different things. Estate taxes, where they exist, are taken out of the deceased’s estate immediately after their passing. Inheritance taxes, conversely, are imposed upon the deceased’s heirs after they have received their inheritance.
    Michigan also does not have a gift tax. Remember, the federal gift tax is applied once you give any individual more than $16,000 in a single calendar year. Give any less than that, and there is no federal gift tax whatsoever.
    Other Necessary Tax Filings for Estates
    Inheritance taxes: Michigan does not have an inheritance tax, with one notable exception. It’s only applied to an estate’s beneficiaries if the decedent passed away on or before Sept. 30, 1993.
    Both federal and state income tax returns: The estate of the deceased must file individual state and income tax returns one final time, due by the tax deadline in the year immediately following their death.
    Federal estate tax: The decedent’s estate may be responsible for paying the federal estate tax if the estate is valued at more than $12.06 million ($24.12 million for married couples). If so, the estate will be taxed on the overage, not the entire value. Federal estate taxes are due nine months after the date of death.
  • TBO Capital
    Also, do you think we should start a group or something somewhere so that we can all share information? Is this the place to do it? I just don't want this website to get taken down or go away. We all need to share all information that we find so that we can help each other! For example, I told my attorney about Darius Karpavicius and he said
    "The bad news he is Lithuanian and may be aligned with Russian mob. Suggest you call FBI back with this info and let them know this could be a violation of anti-money laundering as well as financial embargo placed on Russian assets."
    Also wanted to express empathy and sympathy for all of you that have been scammed....I know that my wife and I are feeling really low and sad and depressed. But knowing that we are not alone does help. But I am really sad and sorry for all of you!
  • 2% swr
    @Baseball_Fan, Wade Pfau, Princeton PhD, is professor at American College
    https://www.theamericancollege.edu/our-people/faculty/wade-pfau
    American College offers degree and certification programs for financial professionals. It is tied to financial industry but is not a sales organization for any insurance/annuity company.
    https://www.theamericancollege.edu/designations-degrees
    If one needs retirement income for lifetime, the most basic product is single-premium immediate annuity (SPIA). One can get quotes from online quote services. Keep in mind that SPIA give quotes for payouts that are interest plus part of your principal, but when you buy SPIA, you do give up the principal.
    There are also expensive annuities that have GMWB/GLWB income riders that allow you to tap the principal.
  • World’s largest crypto exchange hacked with possible losses of $500m
    Following is an unedited news article from The Guardian:
    Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, may have lost half a billion dollars after a hack of its network.
    The company temporarily suspended transactions and the transfer of funds after detecting an exploit between two blockchains, a method of digital theft that has been used recently in at least one other major hack.
    “The issue is contained now. Your funds are safe. We apologize for the inconvenience and will provide further updates accordingly,” Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, said in a tweet.
    Binance originally said that $100m to $110m in funds were taken. Since then, CNBC has reported the crypto company has lost $570m.
    In a blogpost on Friday, Binance said it was working on locking down any areas of vulnerability. “First, we want to apologize to the community for the exploit that occurred. We own this,” the company wrote. “Thanks to the assistance of all the security experts, projects, and validators, the vast majority of the funds remain under control.”
    Last year Binance said that it was time for global regulators to establish rules for crypto markets. The company acknowledged at the time that crypto platforms have an obligation to protect users and to implement processes to prevent financial crimes, along with the responsibility to work with regulators and policymakers to set standards to keep users safe.
    Binance is just the latest crypto company to experience a targeted hack. In August Nomad, a service that allows users to send crypto tokens between different blockchains, was struck, with media reports saying it was taken for nearly $200m. Harmony, another transfer service, lost about $100m in a hack in June.
    Associated Press contributed to this article
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    Interesting WSJ article from a couple days ago (October 5): “Markets Are Stuck in Overreaction Mode” by James Mackintosh. I won’t attempt to quote any of it. But maybe some have access to the WSJ or might find another accessible source.
    I think Mackintosh is correct as far as he goes with this short article. His premise is that relatively insignificant bits and pieces of financial news (earnings reports, FedSpeak, payroll numbers, etc.) are eliciting outsized reactions by investors. This accounts for the massive daily swings in the major indexes of the past few weeks. I’d take it a step further. I glean from various reports (mostly Bloomberg) that a lot of folks are doubling down on their bets and piling into one side or the other. Large amounts have poured into inverse funds (like SPDN) in recent months and some are even using inverse 3X funds! So when markets move / adjust to new reports, the swings can be enormous.
    Where does this all come down? Likely a goodly overshoot on the downside before it’s over. By the same token, there should be some very attractive valuations at some point for those with the patience and long enough time horizons. In the meantime - Buckle Up.
  • "Other Investing?" Or Politics? Money is involved. EU/N.I. "Protocol."
    Liz Truss, Boris Johnson's replacement, is off to a great start, proving to be unexpectedly agile and masterful in all things financial. I'm certain that she will be able to sort all of this out to everyone's total satisfaction in short order.
  • Long and Short Cramer (LJIM, SJIM)
    Academic research paper on a related topic
    "Impact of Mad Money Stock Recommendations: Merging Financial and Marketing Perspectives"
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1509/jmkg.73.6.244
  • 2% swr
    Thanks David M. for the links.
    Note, for retirees the paper quotes a higher SWR, 2.26% - “ For a retired couple willing to accept a 5% chance of financial ruin, the real withdrawal rate of 2.26% for today’s retirees drops to 2.02% for today’s young adults and to 1.95% for today’s newborns.” Ever the (financial/economic) pessimist, I anticipate the markets will not be as generous in the future as they have been in the past.
    The massive “Triumph of the Optimists” points out how bad the markets were in countries that lost major wars (Italy comes to mind). I would need to dig further but on the surface, I question whether some of the 38 countries should have been excluded.
    (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/243456)
  • Stock and Bond Bears of 2022
    Thanks @Yogibearbull. Hopefully, a few years from now we will not look back and conclude Archegos was part or start of the process of collapse of financial excesses.
    I did not buy anything today, though based on weekend research I wanted to buy some stuff. I got tempted but thought may be everybody else too came back from the weekend with a buy list and jumped in from the get go. The market was already racing by 5he time I woke up.
  • 2% swr
    "SWR (which is type of payout...that hopefully last a lifetime) should have in it's SWR methodology considerations for performance ( in both up and down markets)."
    I'm surely not math gifted but how could that could be done? How could a Safe Withdrawal Rate methodology possibly predict what types of market conditions, either good or bad, might exist in any given time span?
    Yes, one can construct a bracket of simulations that cover a range of overall market conditions in a given number-of-years time frame, and in fact I did exactly that over a span of fifty years prior to retirement. That helps one to see what range of asset mixes would be required to insure a decent retirement over a given length of time.
    But that's a different animal than a projection that yields a number that guarantees an optimal withdrawal percentage over an entire retirement time span. If such a projection erred substantially in predicting poor market conditions, the retirement pot would be underfunded. If it erred substantially in predicting unusually good market conditions, then the retirement scheme would provide significantly less income than possible. "Safe", yes, but not terribly efficient.
    Seems to me that there's no such thing as "one ring to rule them all" in financial projections over a long period of time.
  • 2% swr
    I agree with your observation. So many posters on this board seem to assert American financial exceptionalism - why invest overseas when the US market is superior? Just go along with Bogle and Buffett. Yet no objection has been raised to using (lower) international performance figures in the analysis.
    Hulbert surprised me with his choice of an adjective. "Infamous" 4% rule? A rate that will go down in infamy? Notorious might have been better. While it too carries a negative connotation, one can also achieve a positive measure of notoriety.
  • 2% swr
    Like so much else in financial commentary various actors pick and choose whatever they need to "prove" whatever point that they're trying to make. Nothing new here.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    This has been an extremely challenging year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
    It's very rare for stocks and high-quality bonds to both be down for two or more consecutive quarters.
    From Ben Carlson:
    "The 6 month returns for a 60/40 portfolio were in the bottom 2% of rolling returns going back to 1926.
    This means 98% of the time, returns have been better than what we just lived through.
    It was also just the 4th time over the past 100 years or so that stocks and bonds were down two quarters
    in a row at the same time.
    The last time U.S. stocks and intermediate-term bonds were both down two quarters in a row occurred
    in the first two 3 month periods in 1974."

    Link
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    And now there's this possibility. Can you begin to imagine the effects on the financial markets?
    Vladimir Putin’s latest frightening gambit lies at the bottom of the ocean
    "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence... three times, it’s enemy action.” As European politicians and security agencies ponder the explosions in the Nord Stream pipelines they may find this adage of Ian Fleming’s helpful in resolving their doubts about who was responsible.
    The strange thing about Putin’s assault on Ukraine was that he clearly hadn’t consulted Valery Gerasimov, the guy who in 2013 had radically reconfigured Russian military doctrine at his behest (and is now chief of the Russian armed forces). Gerasimov’s big idea was that warfare in a networked age should combine the traditional kinetic stuff with political, economic, informational, humanitarian and other non-military activities.
    Putin’s invasion in February ran directly counter to this doctrine. Instead the assault was a 1940s-style blitzkrieg. And it hasn’t worked. So as he returns to the drawing board, it’s conceivable that the Russian leader has, finally, been talking to Gerasimov. If that’s the case, then their conversations will have rapidly turned to topics such as deniability, asymmetric warfare and identifying the critical weaknesses of their western adversaries.
    Which in turn means that they will be thinking less about pipelines and much more about the undersea fibre-optic cables that now constitute the nervous system of our networked world. There are now about 475 of them and they carry more than 95% of all the data traffic on the global internet – $10tn money transfers and at least 15m financial transactions every day. The Telegeography site maintains a terrific up-to-date map of them all.
    These cables are the critical infrastructure of the western world. They are funnelled into the sea via often poorly protected entry points on remote ocean coastlines. The cables mostly belong to a largish number of private companies, and so – up to now at least – have been largely neglected or ignored by governments.
    Lying on the ocean floor, cables are obviously vulnerable to accidental damage. One industry source claims that only about 100 breaks a year are caused by fishing boats and trawlers. Until 2017 it seems that malicious attacks were rare. In that year there were two on transatlantic cables – UK to US and France to US – which were, er, under-reported at the time, but which may have been the trigger for a study written by none other than Rishi Sunak for the thinktank Policy Exchange, which concluded that the vulnerability of the undersea cable network was deeply troubling and that the danger of an attack on the system was “nothing short of existential”.
    In his foreword to the report, Admiral James Stavridis, a former Nato supreme allied commander, pointed out that “Russian submarine forces have undertaken detailed monitoring and targeting activities in the vicinity of North Atlantic deep-sea cable infrastructure”. Which is interesting for two reasons. One is the conversations that are now doubtless going on in the Kremlin. The second is that Stavridis is the co-author of a fascinating thriller, 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, in which the trigger for catastrophe comes when a Russian ship severs 30 undersea cables, thereby cutting the US off from the world. I doubt that President Putin has read it. But I bet General Gerasimov has.
    Preceding are abridged excerpts from an article by John Naughton in The Guardian.
  • Asking for a friend....
    "Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were 'fan favorites', kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves."
    "Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE."
    I don't personally own any of the mentioned funds.
    When an investor owns actively-managed funds, they should expect periods of underperfomance.
    It usually comes with the territory.
    If an investor can't tolerate bouts of underperformace, perhaps they should utilize broad-based index funds instead to capture market returns?
    Mr. Hussman anticipated market crashes associated with the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
    He's been a perma-bear since the GFC and his funds' long-term performance
    was terrible last time I checked (it's been a while).
  • Bank of England Will Buy UK Government Bonds in Bid to Calm Markets
    U.K. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget was ill-received.
    Consequently, the pound sterling fell sharply to a 37-year low against the US dollar.
    The Bank of England was concerned the situation threatened the financial health
    of Britain's largest insurance companies and pension funds.
    Apparently, some pension funds almost ran out of cash after facing margin calls on various derivatives.
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    You should. This is horrible news that goes way beyond the financial markets.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    I'm wondering if the employment/unemployment picture is becoming fragmented. There are many reports of large layoffs in businesses and financial operations which are large-scale operations. But, as Crash mentions, not so much in smaller local businesses, largely retail, restaurant, and other "service" type jobs.
    I'm guessing that the overall employment picture may be more complex than is generally being reported. It may be that the reporting mechanisms were not designed to accurately reflect the situation that we have right now, and therefore don't give us sufficient granularity.
    That's a repeat of something that I speculated on a few days ago. In this morning's Wall Street Journal there's a report that suggests that that's actually the case:
    Here's excerpts from that report, severely edited for brevity:
    The economy is weakening, big companies from Ford to Facebook’s parent are cutting jobs or freezing hiring and inflation is eating into household budgets. Yet for many small-business owners, finding workers is as difficult as ever.
    More than one-third of small businesses said hiring challenges had worsened in the three months ended Sept. 1, according to a Goldman Sachs survey of nearly 1,500 small-business owners. Forty-seven percent of them said finding and retaining qualified employees was the most significant problem small businesses faced, up from 43% in the survey released in June.
    Nearly 60% of small companies report that worker shortages are affecting their ability to operate at full capacity, according to a September survey of more than 725 small-business owners.
    Nearly 80% of small-business owners said they have increased wages and compensation in response to hiring challenges, according to the survey, and another 11% plan to do so. In addition, 60% of small businesses have refined their recruiting strategies, while 46% have boosted employee benefits.
    Some small-business owners say they see the job market easing at the margins. William Duff Jr., founder and managing principal of William Duff Architects Inc. in San Francisco, said the firm is getting more applications for junior-level jobs that require six to seven years of experience or less. Senior architects are harder to find, he said. The 30-person firm, which struggled most of the year to fill job openings, handed out raises at the start of the year and again in the summer.
    Boudreau Pipeline Corp., based in Corona, Calif., says it has turned down more than $13 million in work this year, roughly 22% of the amount it has been awarded, because it doesn’t have enough staff. The roughly 350-person company installs underground utilities, water, sewer and storm drains.
    “It’s frustrating,” said the company’s president, Alan Boudreau, who figures he could easily employ 50 more people. The company has boosted wages by 22% over the past two years and added three in-house recruiters. It offers hiring bonuses of as much as $2,500 and retention bonuses of up to $5,000, provided workers stay at least one year. In early 2021, the company boosted referral bonuses to as much as $1,500, up from $150 four years ago. Referrals are the best source of new hires, Mr. Boudreau said.
    In August, Vladimir Gendelman eliminated college-degree requirements from all job positions at his Company Folders Inc., a Pontiac, Mich., maker of custom presentation folders, binders and envelopes. He came up with the idea after promoting his executive-assistant to a job as print project manager, though she didn’t have any skills or training in printing, prepress or graphic design.
    “We realized we don’t need an education,” he said. “We need somebody who is learning on their own, somebody who can figure things out.”

  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Would it grieve anyone here to think all of that past performance is meaningless and no guarantee of future results?
    I guess that what I'm saying, to put it in technical financial terminology, is that with all of the crap going on right now this time really may be different... at least until most of that stuff is sorted out. And I'll be very surprised if that doesn't take at least a few years. For Europe, this is about as perfect a storm as it can be.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    Bond volatility ^MOVE (153.61) is now quite high. This may be a warning of some credit-event or financial storm - in the US or globally.
    On the other hand, high ^VIX (32.26) and low/reasonable ^SKEW (120.01) is an interesting setup that is more likely near the stock market lows. As noted in a nearby thread, a multiday (3+) low-testing is ongoing.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^MOVE,^VIX,^SKEW/view/v1
    For general info, https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/17/vix-skew-move