FYI: This aging bull market should be given the benefit of the doubt for at least another several months.
That cheery forecast comes from Sam Eisenstadt, who has more successfully called stocks’ direction in recent years than anyone I can think of. His latest forecast is that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.35% will rise to 2,310 over the next six months. If so, the market at the end of September will be 11.8% higher than where it stands today.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/enjoy-the-party-while-it-lasts-2015-04-03/print
Music To My Ears: Play It Again Sam;

@BenWP, Thanks for that tip. That is a interesting ETF and a new one at that. Can I imagine I am 25 years old again and buy that for the long haul?
@Junkster, Comparative pricing has been a thorn in patients sides. Selling a medication that costs relatively little to make at a high profit because it can save you the costs of surgery is kinda in the trickery dept. I do not bemoan the profits of any company but sometimes the reasons for the high prices are head scratching.

Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.

His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.

I'm also looking at DLFNX, as well as DoubleLine Total Return.
FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that

His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.

From the 2011 article:
By Jonathan R. Laing
Updated Feb. 21, 2011
Gundlach made a couple of very significant predictions in 2011:
http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
"Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
"Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.

"He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "

Thank you all for the replies. No, it does NOT just happen at the MFO site. It happens at Facebook, typing an email message, too. The wireless router is upstairs. I'm downstairs, but almost right underneath the thing. It's a small home! I've tried to note whether it might be a time-of-day problem, too. But it apparently is NOT. Early or late doesn't matter. My mouse is a wired one. So there's no battery inside to wear out and die, like a wireless mouse... "Has this problem existed before?" (As per Catch22.) YES, in fact, it's been happening over months and years. At first, I just thought I was hitting the wrong key, or my fat fingers were getting in their own way. But it's been happening only at THIS address, connected to scummy, spooge-y COMCAST as our ISP. We bought this computer in western Pennsylvania. I never noticed the problem there. We took it to Jamaica. The problem did not happen THERE. I could try the other USB port. But it seems clear to me now: the faulty, worthless, disgusting ISP is to blame. Another reason to add to the list, for wanting to get out of New England. If you don't get internet from the phone company here, and particularly if you want to "bundle" phone and tv and internet, the greasy company known as Comcast is the only option in my city. We are captives. Have I mentioned that Comcast licks germs off dead rats in the street?

@Ted, You missed my tongue in cheek comment.
He wants to renegotiate the lease terms ,Ted !!
More Ag/Farm
Jf Drought worsens in West..farmers may face restrictions
California governor orders mandatory water restrictions
BY FENIT NIRAPPIL ASSOCIATED PRESS
04/01/2015 5:32 PM 04/01/2015 5:32 PM
Wednesday's order has fewer provisions addressing the state's biggest user of water: agriculture.
There is no water reduction target for farmers, who have let thousands of acres go fallow as the state and federal government slashed water deliveries from reservoirs. Instead, the order requires many agricultural water suppliers to submit detailed drought management plans that include how much water they have and what they're doing to scale back.
After the previous drought, state officials acknowledge that some suppliers did not submit similar required plans in 2009. Mark Cowin, director of the Department of Water Resources, said the state will provide money to make sure the plans are written and may penalize those who do not comply.
The state is not aiming to go after water-guzzling crops such as almonds and rice the same way Brown has condemned lawns.
"We're not at the point yet where we are going to declare the irrigation of any particular crop 'waste and unreasonable use,'" Cowin said.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article17079074.html#storylink=cpy
Warning: This is a Seeking Alpha Article
Don't Waste Water, But Rather Invest In It
by David Krejca, AlphaReturns.IO Mar. 30, 2015
"On the occasion of the World Water Day, the United Nations released its annual World Water Development Report. This year titled "Water for a Sustainable World," the report suggests that the world water supply will fall short by at least 40 percent within the next 15 years if world leaders do not rethink their water policies..Unlike oil, natural gas, or any other commodity, investors can't use futures contracts to directly bet on water prices. However, there are two alternatives for how to capitalize on the increasing scarcity of fresh and potable water. The first is to invest in utilities or companies that desalinate, recycle, conserve, purify and distribute clean water, as well as those that make equipment and deliver new technologies to the water industry. The second is to purchase securities of some mutual fund or one of the four water E T Fs
All the E T Fs are closely correlated to each other and are slightly behind the S&P 500 index. Nevertheless, several differences can be found. The Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index E T F (CGW) and the PowerShares Global Water Portfolio E T F (PIO) are internationally diversified, while the First Trust ISE Water Index E T F (FIW) and the PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio E T F (PHO) are solely focused on the U.S. market. The following table provides a good summary of the essential differences among them..
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3038716-dont-waste-water-but-rather-invest-in-it
Or AWTAX
CFWAX

@ Ted said September 2014 in Fund Discussions FYI: I own a 1,200 acre farm west of Dubuque, Ia. It has been in my family for close to a hundreds years on my father's side. The report I'm getting from the tenant who farm it for me is about 188 bushels of corn per acre. Years ago, in a good year, I'd yield roughly 80-100 bushels of corn per acre. Better seed chemicals, and machinery have made the difference.
He wants to renegotiate the lease terms ,Ted !!
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/46722/#Comment_46722

Remember her well. All the more reasons why some of us old timers need to start spending and enjoying what we have accumulated over the years. Life is short!

FYI: The price of a bushel of corn for May delivery tumbled during the last day of the quarter by almost 5 percent to $3.756. The move was caused by the corn supply in the Unites States coming in much higher than expected, even after the government pegged its inventory in June at its highest level in 28 years.
The 7.75 billion bushels' stockpile, as of March 1, is 11 percent higher than a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The reading outpaced economists' estimates of an 8.6 percent increase and is the highest on record at this date since 1987.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/commodity-funds-continue-to-struggle-2015-04-01-12463348/print

Hi Mulder, if I had to choose from the three funds you mentioned, I'd probably choose VASVX for the lower risk and only slightly lower returns than Fidelity. In the last 13 full years, Fidelity beat Vanguard 7 times and Vanguard won the other 6, so both are doing well. I'd have to do more research about what seem to be frequent subadvisor changes at the Vanguard fund and that might push me in the direction of Fidelity. Vanguard's expense ratio is clearly better, which means the Fidelity fund is actually performing that much better before expenses.
David's done a nice write-up of SCMFX, which falls more in the mid blend box but the returns have been good compared to the above with the exception of 2013 when they trailed badly.

Mulder,
Since you are considering VASVX, you might want to look into VMVAX for the following reasons.
1. VMVAX is more of pure mid cap value fund. 36% of VASVX is large cap.
2. VIMAX has superior 1 and 3 year returns and while Admiral shares have not not been in existence for 5 years, VMVIX has better 5 year returns.
3. VMVAX has an expense ratio of 0.09%. VASVX has an expense ratio of 0.41%.
While I think VASVX is a fine actively managed fund, I believe that is primarily attributable to Jim Barrow, its lead manager and secondarily, Mark Giambrone, both of Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss. Jim will be 75 in the next few months and in preparation of his eventual retirement, Vanguard has has added two fund advisers (Donald Smith & Co and Pzena Investment Management), which I feel dilutes the good ideas from Barrow and Giambrone.
Mona

@Mulder420; Yes, even Tom's brother Bob Perkins, a friend of mine for many years, would say its time to go. Bob got into the business with the Omni Fund, which then became Berger Small-Cap Value Fund which was owned by Kansas City Southern Railroad and eventually sold to Janus. For your information, I've linked some MCV Funds ranked by U.S. & World Report.
Regards,
Ted
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/mid-cap-value?int=9c0d08
Janus History:
http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/janus-capital-group-inc-history/

He's been "Bond King" for Years, public (investors) just now catching on...smart man

FYI: Gundlach’s main mutual fund, the $45.6 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, is at the top of its class as it marks its fifth anniversary on April 6. It’s bested all 235 competitors in the U.S. intermediate bond fund category since inception, according to Morningstar Inc. In the previous five years, the TCW Total Return Bond Fund then-managed by Gundlach ranked second
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-01/gundlach-tops-peers-at-five-years-as-caution-belies-image

As I've said, I don't think some of the large cap biotech is expensive and Gilead, at under 10x forward p/e, is a value.
I do think though that some of the small names that maybe do not have a drug but have a really promising pipeline have run up too much. Bluebird Bio, which this fund is shorting, is a good example. +337% last year w/no earnings. That said, I think what concerns me in terms of shorting is that there's no guarantee that these names can't run further or much further or if they are successful with a treatment that's game changing. Trying to make valuation calls in this market over the last few years has often proved to be a mistake.
130/30 is an alternative strategy that's never really appealed to me (no particular reason), but this fund has done reasonably well.
Given the nature of the fund, I wouldn't be surprised if the E.R. was higher than it is.

FYI: Below is an updated look at the current makeup of the global stock market by country. Using Bloomberg data, we’ve constructed a table showing the percentage of global market cap that each country (the largest 25) currently makes up. We also show where the percentages stood at the end of 2014, five years ago, and ten years ago.
In analyzing the table, you’ll see that the US stock market makes up 36% of world market cap. This is down 1.48 percentage points since the start of the year, up 5.6 percentage points over the last five years, and down 5.11 percentage points over the last ten years
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/which-countries-control-the-global-stock-market/

After 5 years of bull market finding value is a real challenge. Growth funds will outperform till we hit bear market. After that value invstment will shine again, as it did during first years of bull market.

An alternate possibility: investors won't tolerate real value investing. There are probably two hallmarks of the deep value investor; that is, of the investor who's after the "value premium" found in the academic research. First, they're willing to buy shares of firms that are either disasters or disastrously misunderstood, and then hold them for the 3-5 years that it might take for the corporation to correct its path or for other investors to realize that they'd been misjudging it. Second, they're willing to buy nothing when there's nothing to buy.
Jeremy Grantham calls it "career risk." Value investors tend to get fired before deep value investments play out, so they don't make those investments.
As a result, most value investors are "relative value" guys: fulled invested, often buyers of "the best of a bad lot." Here's a quick test of my guess: I used Morningstar's fund screener to identify all US stock funds in the "value" equity box then looked at (1) where their portfolio centroid - on Morningstar's stylebox grid, it's the black dot representing the placement of the heart of the portfolio from micro to mega and deep value to rocket growth - was and (2) how much cash they had.
574 value funds. I picked the first fund listed on each of the first 15 pages of results. Here they are:
AAM/Bahl & Gaynor Income Growth: value/blend border, 6% cash
American Beacon The London Co Inc Eq: value/blend border, 6% cash
Artisan Small Cap Value: value/blend border, 7% cash
Boston Partners All Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash
Columbia Dividend Income: value/blend border, 3% cash
Delaware Mid Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash
Dunham Alternative Income: value/blend border, 3% cash
Fidelity Advisor® Value: value/blend border, 5% cash
Franklin Balance Sheet Investment: value/deep value border, 10% cash
Great-West Putnam Equity Income: value/blend border, 2% cash
Hennessy Large Value: middle of the value box, 0% cash
Invesco Exchange: value/blend border, 1% cash
JPMorgan Value Advantage: value/blend border, 8% cash
Manning & Napier Equity Income: middle of the value box, 2% cash
Nationwide US Small Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash.
Of a sample of 15 value funds, just one is positioned to invest in the sorts of deep value stocks that most of the research isolates.
There are just two self-proclaimed "deep value" equity options: Towle Deep Value TDVFX (value/deep value border, 2% cash) and Deep Value E T F DVP (solidly deep value, 0% cash). Of the funds we've covered, only Pinnacle Value PVFIX (deep value, 43% cash) strikes me as seriously pursuing the value premium: Mr. Deysher buys only when a stock is at historic lows but the business seems sound, which leaves him with investors' disdain and the best risk ratios (Sortino, Martin and so on) around.
For what thought fodder that offers,
David

FYI: Conditions were nearly perfect for municipal bonds last year, leading to sizable returns. Perfection never lasts, though, and managers of municipal-bond funds are forecasting modest returns in upcoming years.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27801993/municipal-bond-fund-returns-will-be-muted-this