Time to invest in natural gas ? NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
"The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
'LONG-TERM ROLE'
Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
"It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
"The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
TOP EXPORTERS
In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
LNG news thing. 23rd Aug, '22 You'll recognize the names that are dropped.
Taken from the TRP webpage.
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
"The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
'LONG-TERM ROLE'
Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
"It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
"The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
TOP EXPORTERS
In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
RPIEX: Contrarian Bond Fund
Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile..... I’m not sure
“thanks” are deserved here …
@JohnN.
Generally, I’d stick with a
diversified long-term portfolio. What I’d argue against is trying too hard to “read the tea leaves” and making big changes (ie buying / selling) depending on what you
think is going to happen (next week, next month, 6 months out etc.) Easy to get caught flat-footed. Some may have sold near the recent lows and than been caught off guard when the market suddenly turned around and jumped 15-20% in just a month or two.
“Buying down” is dangerous. I still try occasionally. Best way is go slow. Put a set dollar amount into something and watch it. If it falls 5-10%, maybe buy a little more. Not for everyone,
Buffett references “blood in the streets”. (Actually, it was
Rothschild - my bad) Not all agree with that. Hard to know how much blood will flow and when it will stop flowing.
I corrected earlier incorrect reference to Buffett.
Taking Risk out of the Market...commentary We're all maybe kind of giddy with the double up volume and the bounce....but who knows the whammo could be around the corner, no one knows...it is kind of crazy to put your life savings on the line to a great extent....but to the victors belong the spoils...
The question is--and it's an important one--is this level of uncertainty about one's financial future absolutely necessary or can it be changed? I recognize that "to the victor belong the spoils" is how the animal kingdom has functioned largely in a Darwinian sense since life began, but haven't we as a species evolved some from a winner-take-all or might-makes-right philosophy? The market dependent path is indeed an uncertain one, but I think institutions like Social Security were created to ensure that even the vulnerable, or at least, the elderly who are by default vulnerable have some piece of the spoils. While nothing in life is risk free--even the "risk-free" rate of T-bills--hitching our society's star entirely to market fluctuations and dynamics perhaps creates more uncertainty than there needs to be. The whole idea of a social safety net is to make life a little more civilized, a little less brutal, less dependent on the comically named "animal spirits."
Small-caps at all? As of the date of this
prospectus, only the following investors may make purchases in the Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund and the Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth Fund:
• Current shareholders of the funds, whether they hold their shares directly or through a financial intermediary, may continue to add to their accounts through the purchase of additional shares and through the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Financial intermediaries may continue to purchase shares on behalf of existing shareholders only.
• Exchanges into the funds may only be made by shareholders with an existing account in the funds.
• An investor who has previously entered into a letter of intent with the Distributor prior to the closing date may fulfill the obligation.
• Trustees of the funds, trustees/directors of affiliated open- and closed-end funds, and directors, officers and employees of Virtus, its affiliates, and their family members, may continue to open new accounts.
• New and additional investments may be made through firm or home office discretionary platform models within mutual fund advisory (WRAP) programs and other fee-based programs established with the Distributor prior to July 31, 2018 for Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund and September 28, 2018 for Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth
Fund.
• The funds will also remain open to Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit retirement plans and will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans.
Vanguard Problems Well, I don't know about "a pleasure to deal with", but I do have to note that I've never had any problems there. Their website functions quite well (with Firefox), and while sometimes it's a little involved to find exactly what I'm looking for that's mostly because they have such a wide universe of financial resources to deal with.
Bloomberg Wall Street Week Listened to Summers again. He’s afflicted by the “ahh” syndrome which detracts from his speech delivery. These are known as verbal pauses. A good speech coach could correct that with some training. His delivery is also very slow. Such defects are perhaps irrelevant when he’s sitting in on a meeting with other college professors. Not so good on TV. For a sharp contrast listen to host David Weston whose delivery is virtually free of verbal pauses.
None of this is to suggest speaking ability affects one’s financial acuity. It does not. But listening to LS for 15 minutes ought to provide a lot more information and insight than it seems to. In a sense, delivery does affect the end result.
Bloomberg Wall Street Week Did anybody get anything out of this week’s show? The first 2 guests were well qualified. The woman was from Invesco. But I thought they spoke in broad generalities. Geez - Can we stop second guessing what the Fed will do next? Even the Fed members sound clueless. And to say China “might be” a productive investment going forward really doesn’t say much. Like it or not like? What percentage would you so allocate?
I can’t stomach Summers anymore. Obviously bright and highly educated. His particular weekly “take” on inflation & Fed policy wouldn’t seem to require what sounds like 10 minutes of droning. You don’t suppose they’re paying him by the number of words? :)
Thanks
@BaluBalu for posting all the shows. (I always record / replay the show thru my Hulu subscription). While I didn’t take away much this week, often the guests are really good and leave some incisive commentary.
Hoping others can contribute
here whatever substance, insights, advice they gleaned from this week’s program? While the show shines occasionally, overall it bears little resemblance to the spontaneity and expert analysis served up by a distinguished array of financial gurus on Louis Rukeyser’s old
Wall Street Week.
Fund Financial Reporting Thank you for accepting me to the MF Observer Discussions - I was curious if it is ok to post about open jobs I am hiring for that pertain to mutual fund financial reporting?
Thanks in advance.
Gary Pennacchio
Northern Trust
Your buy - sells July forward Thank you
@Crash. I am younger, but like you, I have the same thinking that I need much more money to own all of the names I like. By the way, I always liked RBC, but don't see it on your list. Any reason?
yes, it's there in my list with the others. :)
RY is the ticker.
ENB . Yes. Solid, well-established. Doesn't surprise me if they're into renewables now. I would hold it long-term, if you're going to buy it. It's an oil/gas giant. GIANT. Almost nothing compares,
midstream. great div, too.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ENB/analyst-ratingshttps://www.wallstreetzen.com/stocks/us/nyse/enb/stock-forecasthttps://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-enb/enbridgehttps://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/ENB/analyst-ratingshttps://www.stocktitan.net/news/ENB/pacific-energy-and-enbridge-announce-partnership-in-woodfibre-nh7rpdrvqd6m.htmlhttps://www.stocktitan.net/news/ENB/enbridge-reports-second-quarter-2022-financial-results-and-announces-uob9i7uhntty.htmlThe P/E is rather rich these days, though. That might explain so many HOLD ratings, currently.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ENBhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ENB/research-ratings
Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022 @MikeM, The Professor’s a true “buy and holder” from what I can recall. However, does make adjustments occasionally. I’m eager to hear his more recent take on TMSRX. (An alt fund?) I think he owned a fair amount at one time. I and a few others have entirely vacated this one over the past year.
On another note, I think you’re just a bit harsh on those of us who use some
“alternative” funds. What’s in a name? FWIW my “
alternative” sleeve does contain some more traditional alt funds, but also included in it are 3 individual stocks representing 3 different (alternative) sectors: Insurance, a large regional bank, and a global food producer / distributor.
Re the performance chasers, yes, I see what you see but would never call anyone out. And - there are those rare individuals who know and understand momentum investing. But, like you, I see some buying high and selling low.
I may have indirectly touched on that last point in a different post recently (See below.)
-
Relevant Excerpts:
“
However, when I see & hear average investors trying to time buys and sells based on the most recent print or electronic pundentary (consumer sentiment / inflation / deflation / recession / depression / interest rate direction / Fed discount rate and Federal Reserve “projections” - duh), I think of the futility of it all.“
“
Do those concepts matter? Yes. It’s just that I think there are financial professionals making decisions based on those readings who are 2 or 3 steps ahead of most of us. We’re the guy showing up at the fire with a garden hose and shovel after the fire brigade has already arrived. Or the fella dipping a net in the lake right after the commercial trawlers have swept through.”Here’s the Thread
Your buy - sells July forward @Crash,
@Mark,
@rforno,
@PRESSmUPWhat percentage of your portfolio do you allocate to these companies? Also, is it beneficial to hold them in retirement accounts, IRAs, if they have special tax consequences if held in a normal account?
Thank you
They're large positions (10%+), but I have several large positions. I don't worry much about percentage allocations of individual holdings per se since I prefer concentrated holdings in quality names which can lead to 'overweight' or 'majorly overweight' sector allocations ... which drives financial analysts/brokers/algos crazy when they run the numbers and go "OMG you have XX% in [stock/sector$] that's horrible!"
Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ" Hi Crash, I agree with you, BUT, the beauty of investing is the fact it can be extremely easy. Suppose someone decides to invest $1000 monthly in a target fund(made of indexes) for 40 years in Roth 401K, makes 8% annually, and never touch this money until retirement. She retires with about 3.2 million, not bad. At age 65, she takes SS and another 2-3% from her Roth for living expenses...DONE.
Of course, she can do better and invest more.
I believe the above can beat most investors, and even pros. KISS and effective, no science or art needed. I also think many people who participate in investing forums make things too complicated, including my own (
system). Financial advisers make it complicated to confuse their clients.
Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022 www.barrons.com/articles/the-best-robo-advisors-barrons-annual-ranking-51659712291?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1
Overall Ranking: #1-SoFi, #2-Wealthfront/UBS, #3-Fidelity, #4-SigFig, #5-Merrill Edge, #6-Personal Capital/Empower, #7-Vanguard, #8-Betterment, #9-Schwab, #10-US Bank, #11-Morgan Stanley (includes E*Trade), #12-Wells Fargo, #13-Ally, #14-Acorns, #15-JP Morgan Chase
Digital Advice by Firm AUMs: #1-Edelman Financial Engines, #2-Vanguard, #3-Morningstar, #4-Fidelity, #5-Schwab, #6-Betterment, #7-Wealthfront/UBS, #8-Personal Capital/Empower, #9-TD Ameritrade/Schwab, #10-Guided Choice, #11-Bloom. Total industry AUM $987.6 billion.
There are several variations - digital-only, digital+ with some personalization/customization (menu-based) and limited support, tax-loss harvesting.
Related developments include direct-indexing, ESG, mobile apps.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/153/robo-advisors-barrons-rankings?page=1&scrollTo=732
A Money Manager Apologizes and Admits Mistakes @Crash, do you know that TRAMX has significant holdings in Saudi Arabia, mostly in the financial sector? From a pure investment approach that is not a problem of course. But I know you are a strong-on-ethics guy, so I thought I'd mention it in case you were unaware. I have no idea how to make geographical sector bets so personally I wouldn't use any non-diversified EM fund myself, especially as a buy and hold fund.
@MikeMI'm glad for your message.
You're correct. Saudi Arabia = 38.67% of the portfolio in TRAMX. It's the biggest single-country bet in that fund. Saudi National Bank = 8.08% of its portfolio.
Prince M.B.S. is a filthy skunk. A murderer, in fact.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Salmanhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Jamal_KhashoggiAnd do women in that country still possess the right to even drive a car? The Saudi ethical record is dreadful. I do feel besieged, trying to invest ethically. It almost can't be done, even domestically. Wifey is just back from The Philippines. The voters in that country are at least as stupid as voters everywhere else: they elected Ferdinand Marcos' son as President. And now there is a move afoot to change the name of Manila's airport. It is known as the "Ninoy" Aquino International Airport. You may recall that the elder Marcos personally arranged the assassination of Ninoy as he walked off the airplane which brought him to Manila, back in August, 1983. And Israel is running an apartheid state, and still occupying Palestinian land in the West Bank--- doing all they can to see that a viable Palestinian State never happens. Between the Palestinians themselves, there is a huge credibility problem in the leadership. And Burma? "Fugg-ed-about-it." Africa is a mess, too. I try to be ethical. But if I wanted to remain pure, I'd never be able to invest a dime, anywhere. The Human Condition.
A Money Manager Apologizes and Admits Mistakes @Crash, do you know that TRAMX has significant holdings in Saudi Arabia, mostly in the financial sector? From a pure investment approach that is not a problem of course. But I know you are a strong-on-ethics guy, so I thought I'd mention it in case you were unaware. I have no idea how to make geographical sector bets so personally I wouldn't use any non-diversified EM fund myself, especially as a buy and hold fund.