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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Hi Tampabay,
    Thanks for your comment.
    The policy in the family for years has been if you catch, trap or shoot wild game ... you have to fix and eat it. Its one of the reasons I did not shoot any squirrels yesterday. I simply was not in the mood for squirrel stew. However, I did watch Buster and Skeeter tree a few of them yesterday out in the grove. If I shoot the squirrels in the grove then they can not have their afternoon fun. That's why I wrote we would have to take the Jeep and go back into the woods. Last night we had about three inches of new snow fall. Right now I am picking, the best I can, on the key board of my laptop ... thinking about what I'll write under Scott's post ... "What are you buying, selling or pondering?"
    Have a good one ...
    Old_Skeet
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    @Hank, Giroux's work, starting 6/06, may be somewhat different from other allocation funds, or so they claim, but closely analyze its opportunistic performance since then, especially during hard times, compared with similarly opportunistic GLRBX, ICMBX, JABAX, and FPACX. The last few years have been strongest, yes. Otherwise slightly unimpressive, while recently hot. If you add DODBX to the graph, you will see substantiation of its rankings. If I were seeking gogo in this area now, I might add FBALX.
  • Chart Of The Day: Stock Market Rallies: (Dow Since 1900)
    Wonderful time to be in the stock market.....last few years before needing our money for retirement, timing was perfect, 2008 a distant (forgotten) dream(nightmare)
  • Chart Of The Day: Stock Market Rallies: (Dow Since 1900)
    FYI: The Dow just made another all-time record high. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 115 years are plotted on today's chart.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.chartoftheday.com/20150225.htm?H
  • Yes, The World Is Out To Get Active Managers
    FYI: The world is out to get active money managers. As Bloomberg’s Charles Stein reports, they’ve been having a tough economic recovery, with only 21 percent of stock-picking mutual funds beating their benchmarks during the past five years. They (at least, several that Stein talked to) have also identified a culprit on Constitution Avenue:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-24/active-money-managers-have-the-whole-world-against-them
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Those big dogs are still licking their wounds from the 2000 tech bubble pop. Only now has the QQQ come almost back to that level. 15 years drawdown is a long time.
    http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=Qqq
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    @Old_Skeet: Please, your not telling me anything I don't already know about the Nasdaq-100. Check QQQ's performance against any of your fund YTD-10 Years Its time for you to get off the porch and hunt with the big dogs.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Top Performing Global Stock Funds: 1-20 Years
    I've owned SGENX for a number of years when I loved Jean-Marie Eveillard but looking now to hold something that might be very good over next few years, both OAKGX and MWEIX. I'm more interested in past 3 years. We shall see.
  • Gross Fund Hurt By Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds
    Classic Risk/Reward 101
    (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. sold $6.35 billion of bonds, the biggest debt offering by a U.S. oil and gas producer since the 54 percent rout in crude began in July, as investors seek debt of energy producers that can weather the downturn.
    “Chevron is a reminder that all energy companies aren’t created equal,” said Scott Carmack, a money manager at Portland, Oregon-based Leader Capital Corp., which oversees $1.5 billion in fixed-income assets. “They are a behemoth of a company that is built for the long haul. Investors have no problem lending to them.”
    Debt of the riskiest energy companies tracked by Bank of Merrill Lynch Bond Indexes lost more than 9 percent since last June, while those of safer energy securities gained 0.6 percent.
    The new debt is an insurance policy against further declines in oil as well as an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates, Fadel Gheit, Chevron analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., said in a telephone interview.
    “If they see a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, they don’t want to be stuck in a situation where interest rates rise,” he said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/chevron-said-to-plan-bond-sale-in-second-deal-since-oil-plunge
    Original
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322826-chevron-raises-6_35b-in-biggest-oil-bond-deal-since-rout
    Country,Company,Commodity,Corruption Risk Wrapped in One
    Moody's downgrades Petrobras' ratings to Ba2; maintains review for downgrade
    Global Credit Research - 24 Feb 2015
    These rating actions reflect increasing concern about corruption investigations and liquidity pressures that might result from delays in delivering audited financial statements, as well as Moody's expectation that the company will be challenged to make meaningful reduction in its very high debt burden over the next several years. The ratings remain on review for downgrade.
    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Petrobras-ratings-to-Ba2-maintains-review-for-downgrade--PR_319021
    It was the fourth Petrobras downgrade in five months by Moody's.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322936-moody-s-downgrades-petrobras-debt-to-junk
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show; Guest: Skip Aylesworth, Manager, Hennessey Gas Utilities Index Fund
    Mr Alyesworth mentioned that his index fund (GASFX) is based on NG companies membership in the AGA (American Gas Association). Seems qualifying for this index has a bit to do with your membership dues and lobby efforts. Utilities remain a piece on the monopoly game board. I'm an investor in utilities because I am a user of utilities and much like healthcare I see myself needing their services.
    Anyway, Here's the AGA's playbook for 2015:
    playbook.aga.org/mobile/index.html
    This might be better described as a "managed utility/energy index fund". Once managed by FBR...now part of Hennessey's fund GASFX has had long history of being a "smooth operator" especially with all the volatility in the energy markets. VPU is a true utility index fund (100% Utility)...GASFX blends utilities (61%) with energy (38%) and is more concentrated than VPU. GASFX is also 15 % outside the US. Here are the two funds over the last 10 years:
    image
    Here's GASFX 10 yr performance in comparison to oil (USO), Coal (KOL), Natural Gas (UNG), and Energy (XLE):
    image
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    You might use our own database search to browse for options. It's Accipiter's Miraculous Multi-search. Pick a category (diversified Asia/Pacific) and you'll see all of the funds. Returns are color coded (cool colors are good) and it's sortable by field (want to know who has the lowest Ulcer Index? click!). The key to reading the numbers is this: the numbers reflect the age of the fund, we give the 20 year Sharpe for a fund that's 20 years old and the 3 year Sharpe for a fund that's three years old, so be sure to compare funds of similar vintage.
    For what help that offers,
    David
  • Real Estate Funds and Turnover
    I recieved an email back from American Century. In short, the reason given for the high turnover was that 1: this is a new fund (3 years), 2: the assets are only $73million, and 3: the combination of those two facts lends to high turnover as the fund is trying to get on the advisors radars.
    I would figure a lot of buying is involved but is that construed as turnover? I thought turnover was a buy and sell step. The email gave me half an answer which is disappointing. I still plan to hold the fund as it has done very well. It has 5 stars from the big M.
    I suspect they didn't want to get too detailed in their explanation so I could understand better.
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    Most of these funds are "set and forget."
    I have admired BRUFX for many years. Two things that make Bruce a bit different than other Fund companies is that the Bruce Fund has a "mail only" transaction dynamic and you are always fully invested in the fund... no "cash - like" position.
    When shopping for an H.S.A. (health saving acct) custodian last year I chose the Bruce Fund. I will be making yearly contribution to my H.S.A. at Bruce for the next ten years until age 65. Hopefully this fund continues to shine as my bulb dims.
    I like PRWCX a lot and it is my largest holding in my TRP account...another fund that I "set and forget."
    For young investors, own one of these funds on Ted's linked list as a first investment. For retirees, own one of these funds in each of your accounts as one of your last investments.
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    PRASX. Ahn Lu is back from a leave-of-absence. That is the Asia fund I own.
    YTD
    +4.17
    1 MONTH
    +2.23
    1 YEAR
    +14.64
    3 years
    +6.53
    5 years
    +8.92
    10 years
    +12.25
    Ranks in terms of percentile for each period: 53, 65, 23,59, 22, 27.
  • Anyone using a dedicated machine for on-line banking, portfolio tweeking?
    I've thought about this a fair amount for years and I'm not sure I've come to any valuable conclusions but here's what I've decided. First, I think there are different kinds of "hacks". The most frequent being that you get an email or download something and it has a virus or malware attached to it and that causes a problem. I've concluded there are only a couple ways to defend against this. One is to be as careful as you can about what you open in your email and what you download. I feel like I read about these kinds of things and get "reminders" from my banks, brokers, etc. about how they communicate fairly often but I think it pays to be skeptical. A second is to have a decent software program or programs to protect against viruses, malware, phishing, etc. and you talked about that. I primarily use BitDefender and I've been very happy with it for years. And a third is to have a router with a modern up-to-date firewall. The technology gets better and better and I'm not willing to buy a new router every year, but I do try to check every once in while what's happening and I've replaced my router a couple of times when I thought there was the opportunity to upgrade my firewall. I think a separate laptop dedicated to performing a limited number of activities is probably most useful in limiting this type of risk.
    A second type of hack is a direct attack on your network and your computer(s). I'm not convinced a separate computer helps you much here because if someone penetrates your network then they have the opportunity to attack everything on that network. I guess if you only turn the separate laptop on for the limited time you need to do something and then disconnect it then it limits this type of risk. I set my router so it doesn't "broadcast" my network. When I look at available wireless networks I see many of my neighbor's networks and also see that most of them are secured. But when they look at available wireless networks they don't see mine. Unless someone is trying to attack me personally, then seeing everyone else's network and not seeing mine seems like an advantage. The firewall and anti-virus/malware/phishing software helps also, but I generally assume if someone manages to penetrate my network then they're not likely to be stopped by anything else I have.
    One thing I do pay attention to is my passwords. I have a handful of general passwords that are not the typically easy stuff to guess that you see articles about all the time, but they're not enormously complex either. I use them for things I don't care much about. No offense, but if someone can get into my MFO account and make comments as me, I wouldn't be happy but its not something I worry about a lot. On the other hand, each of my bank accounts and brokerage accounts has a distinct and more complicated password that gets changed several times each year. My hope is that if someone manages to figure out one of my passwords, at least they won't have the keys to the house.
    Finally, I think the most dangerous type of attack, the most likely type of attack and the one you have the least control over are the attacks on third parties who hold your personal information. A separate laptop doesn't help with this at all. I like banks that use multi factor authentication and ones that "recognize" the computer you use and employ additional security if you're using a new device. The reality is, however, I have no idea how to determine whether my bank is better at protecting my data than some other bank, or whether Fidelity is better than TD Ameritrade or Schwab. I know all of these guys are spending a lot of energy and a lot of money to make sure there aren't any problems, but this is where I actually feel most at risk.
    Maybe my concern should be more about the browser and operating system I use but I'm just not knowledgeable enough to have an informed opinion. I've read plenty of stuff and talked to guys who know much more than I do about the risks and most of the feedback I've received is that the risk isn't as high as some like to promote and that in part its a marketing, or anti-marketing, campaign. That's not to say Windows doesn't have its weaknesses, but as long as you keep it updated you're not taking huge risks compared to anything else. The biggest risk is that Microsoft is more of a target than other operating systems. As far as the likes of Google, you're probably more at risk with Facebook than you are with Google, but I try to use google as little as possible and I don't have a Facebook/Twitter/Instagram account at all.
    Good luck and if you discover some great insights, please let us know!
    LLJB
  • YouTube Videos
    Chip- I'm getting the same error described by others. The error message comes up so quickly that there isn't time to press anything twice. You may remember that I'm using a bastard version of Firefox, optimized for older Mac operating systems. It was working fine until last week. While this specific browser is for older Mac OS, the browser itself is quite current- just a few months old, in fact, as the browser geniuses make a point of keeping up with current internet technology to the extent possible.
    Edit- This browser version does not support Flash, and hasn't for at least a couple of years. I am under the impression that Firefox has a similar limitation.
    Additional info (1): I pressed the red "go "arrow in the middle of the screen once, and get a second window which is similar but not identical to the first. The second window has, in the upper left corner, a title, which in this case says "Abbott & Costello Who's On First". I tried clicking on that just for the hell of it and my browser then opened a new tab for the "YouTube" site, where the video played just fine.
    Additional info (2): Tried same thing with the "What is a Mutual Fund" video above, with same results: the browser opened a new tab for the "YouTube" site, where the video played just fine.
    Additional info (3): With my browser, at least, the process has always been as described above: pressing the red "go "arrow in the middle of the screen once, and a second window which is very similar but not identical appears. Until lat week, pressing the "go" arrow in that second window caused the video to play. I'm guessing that this two-window situation is what Crash is referring to when he says that he has to "press the "go" button TWICE."
    So all of this suggests that the browsers are not the issue, but rather some change at YouTube with respect to embedding their videos in a foreign site.
    OJ
  • Seafarer at three
    SFGIX is in top 4% of category going back to its birth, 3 years ago. More recently, top 1%. That surely cannot be sustained, but it's nice to see. MACSX? "Not so much."
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=SFGIX&region=USA
  • How Many Mutual Funds Should You Have in Your Investment Portfolio?
    "....One bond mutual fund in a portfolio may make sense, but it is difficult to imagine the value of more than two bond mutual funds....The market for large domestic stocks and the U.S. government bond market fit the index fund criteria. Small domestic stocks and emerging foreign markets do not. These markets have attributes that make intelligent, thorough analysis more likely to contribute returns that can overcome the cost of active fund management....Be sure you can justify adding mutual funds to your portfolio beyond eight. Make certain you need them, that they truly cover new ground in asset type, geography, or investment style, and that the addition is meaningful."
    ****************************
    I recently cleaned house, and went from 13 down to 10 funds. One is wife's 403b, a miniscule holding in a small-cap index tool from Vanguard. NAESX. Holding a small-cap index fund cuts across the grain in the guidance offered in the article. But I'm very happy with the fund. Bond funds: PRSNX, DLFNX and PREMX. Years ago, I surely made a too risky and too big a bet on PREMX, but it did pay me handsomely, over time, after all. It also seems to me that depending on the sheer size of one's portfolio, the investor may very well need 15 or 20 funds. If I had $1M to invest, you can bet that I wouldn't shoe-horn it all into 8 funds.
    This article reads very well and does not overwhelm ya with jargon that the uninitiated don't understand. But a true novice would still need to learn about some basic definitions, prior to making use of such an article. It was direct and straightforward. Thanks.