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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @Junkster - If you were to put a gun to my head and force me to own only one fund for 30 years or longer, I guess it would be PRPFX (assuming continuation of management and fee structure, which is unlikely). I know we disagree on that and your comment was intended tongue-in-cheek.
    Yes, many other investments, including junk bonds and the S&P, will outperform that fund over time. No argument there. But, assuming the economy goes through 4, 5 or more different cycles over that 30+ year period (inflationary, deflationary, stagnation, rising rates, falling rates, etc.) I like the fund as one that will not scare the hell out of a conservative investor during those cycles and will at least keep pace with inflation.
    The original concept behind PRPFX (which I believe is still valid) was that it is designed to preserve purchasing power over a variety of market cycles and economic conditions (not to make you filthy rich). The fact it has gone nowhere for several years now does not concern me. We could argue about the current inflation rate - but officially, anyway, it's below the Fed's 2% target range. The fund represents about 8% of my investments. We presently take annual IRA distributions - but never from PRPFX. As a percentage of investments, therefore, it is expected to grow over time.
    Regards
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @MFO Members: VWELX for 86 years @8.33% !
    Regards,
    ted
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @Junkster - re: PRPFX
    I've never owned that fund. I've looked at it once or twice but never got it, 'it' being why I would own this. However, if the markets were to experience another 2008-like dumping it might be the one everyone wished they had chosen. Different times, different market cycles, different goals all go into the thought process.
    I'd like to think that I would own any of the six funds I currently do for the next 10 years but if I had to choose just one it would be POAGX. Ask me again in a few weeks or even next week.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    Not Knowing what the U.S. stock market will do FOREVER, think I would mix in bonds (debt) and use VWIAX, take my *8% year, double every 9 years and have plenty of money for bananas and a couple of native girls....thinking Bud and golf would not be possible
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @junkster, several years of lagging performance has soured the sentiment on this board.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    A few years ago when this question was posed the overwhelming consensus was PRPFX.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @Hank,
    Agree with what you said. Vanguard, however, is not a public trade company and is owned by the shareholders like you and I. so there is less concern on conflict of interest.
    Over the years our family's approach have evolved and index funds constituted over 70% of our portfolios. In certain asset classes or sectors, however, active management has provided (at least in our case) some alpha over their respective benchmarks. Ones I am referring to are T. Rowe Price Health Care and Vanguard Health Care, two stellar funds we held in IRAs.
  • A Three-Question Test Of Financial Literacy
    Future $ value calculator.
    observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2013/04/what-will-1-be-worth-in-future.html
    For those who have access Financial Engines, it provides more detailed computation based on historical inflation rates (at least 40 years), returns of various asset classes, and expect outcomes of asset allocation one chooses.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    I suspect that "forever" is longer than 10 years. I wouldn't want to leave an actively managed fund on auto pilot for that long. So, I would go with an index fund. Comparing VTSMX, NAESX, VFINX, and VIMSX back to VIMSX's date of birth for both tax free and taxable returns makes me pick VIMSX over NAESX by a hare for a forever fund...though many index fund "experts" would argue it should be a small value fund like VISVX instead.
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    @Anna: "If you were stranded on an island for years, what is the one mutual fund you would own?" SEA very clever !
    Regards,
    ted
    Regards,
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    FYI: If you were stranded on an island for years, what is the one mutual fund you would own?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/03/the-one-best-mutual-fund-to-hold-forever-naesx-vimsx/print
  • Jason Zweig: The New Era Of Low Stock Returns
    FYI: After more than six years of a bull market, investors should stare a cold, hard truth straight in the face: Future returns on stocks are likely to be far slimmer than the fat gains of the past few years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/27/the-new-era-of-low-stock-returns/tab/print/
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Thanks for all the great contributions. I've used the MFO risk tool to compare. I've restricted it to funds in the 1st risk group to approximate the risk category of RPHYX and organized them according to Martin Ratio. For the 3 year group, RPHYX is the winner. for five years, NTAUX. For the 20 year group, GSTGX is the winner. (Disclaimer: As clearly explained by others in the thread, an investment in one of these funds is not a deposit of a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Unlike individual debt securities, which typically pay principal at maturity, the value of an investment in the fund will fluctuate. You could lose money by investing in the fund.)
    Edit-I meant to include FNPIX, but somehow forgot.
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    @Old_Joe I haven't forgotten you, really. It's just that what I've found is a lot different than what I expected, and I'm having to re-scale the package. The changes to money market function, and what various kinds of MMkt funds can hold, is so profound that I'm having to go to primary sources (rather large regulatory documents) to understand the what and why of things; if I were to simply post these, it would be a big turn-off for most, who would see the page length and flee. Fortunately, the writing is pretty good, so I think I need to finishing perusing them, and select the sections that describe what a typical retail investor would what/need to know to make an investment decision about MMkt funds. Maybe a couple extra days, please?
    Humbling to learn how little I have understood how the different kinds of MMkt funds really worked, all these years. Surprising to learn that, in the past 25 years, there were 11 financial events severe enough to cause 158 MMkt funds to break the buck, had it not been for fund sponsors dashing in with cash to hide it and preserve the NAV at 1. In 2008-9, the industry simply ran out of luck--- their Black Swan flew in.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Trade Little Changed: Biotechnology Shows Signs Of Stabilization
    I bought a small position in SBIO on the dip this morning and was happy by the end of the day. This eft is all over the place. In the last 3 months compared to the price it started at it's been everywhere from down 3% to up roughly 31%. In the last week it's lost 15%. If you're an adrenaline junky this is a great fund but otherwise you'd have to stick it in some deep dark corner of your portfolio where you wake up 10 years later and hope its a nice surprise. I'm pretty sure it'll be a surprise one way or the other, I'm just not totally sure which way it'll be.
  • intermediate-Bond Funds.. Best?
    Based upon what I've seen over the years; that although Baird does have investor class shares, the majority of these funds ( I shares) that I have seen as portfolio choices were offerings inside of retirement plans, and that the "I" shares, being using by large institutions (pension funds, etc.)
    I am aware of a large pension plan that will be replacing PTTRX at the end of April with the institutional class of the Baird intermediate term bond fund.
    Another Pimco loss; although PTTRX is beating most of their related fund competition YTD.
    Knee jerk stuff by managers (pension funds, etc.) , as was discussed here, last year.
    @Mark . Agree. I was also trying to determine the value of a compare of HY funds to a more straight line bond fund. Oh, well.
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Wait long enough, and a lot of what one has in mind will be said. Thanks to Hank for his most recent post above about what cash means. That was some of what I wanted to point out - that if you're thinking about cash as something used for paying bills, you need stable (or very nearly stable) prices. But if you're using "cash" for asset allocation, you can tolerate fluctuations.
    In the latter case, these days I wonder about the use of bonds at all (rather than cash) for ballast. Is 1% or so extra return over cash worth the extra risk? While some people are wondering how to get any return on cash, I'm wondering whether 2% on short-intermediate term bond funds is worth the risk. If one does want to take that risk, I'd look at FPNIX - it's always been non-traditional, using derivatives as much to preserve capital as to improve returns.
    Back to cash. Regarding I-bonds - which I think are great for cash allocation but not day-to-day cash (since you can't redeem them for a year) - not only can you buy $10K/year/SSN from Treasury Direct, but if you have a refund coming on your 1040, you can buy $5K more using Form 8888.
    A similar idea to I-bonds (stable, insured, liquid albeit with penalty) is long term CDs. Many banks offer CDs where you come out ahead of cash even after a year or so (like an I-bond), even after penalty. But there are risks - being able to access your money (early withdrawal may be at the discretion of the bank), and interest rate risk (the bank could increase the early withdrawal penalty). Here's a good post on that. The site (depositaccounts.com) also has a CD calculator showing the net APY after penalty.
    Comparing muni bond funds with RPHYX - BobC addressed this to some extent. He likes NEARX. I've been a little uncomfortable about the risk it seems to take (investing heavily in low graded states), but if memory serves, it seems to have cut back significantly on Illinois (lowest graded state), and generally gotten more conservative. Here's a nice graphic on state ratings (you'll need to zoom in to read it well). But NJ's rating (5% of NEARX) has dropped further than the graphic shows.
    I tend to look at SEC yield, especially for investments that are not intended to be short term (i.e. used for monthly payrolls and the like) - this is a calculation that's designed to reflect total return (i.e. it accounts for increase/decrease in values of discount/premium bonds). Near the top of short term munis is Vanguard Ltd-Term (VMLUX, VMLTX), a more conservative muni fund that BobC has also suggested in the past as a conservative alternative to NEARX. I feel it offers better risk/reward, in the sense that even though its return is less, its risk is much less. And right now, its SEC yield tops most funds, including NEARX.
    It does this, as you'd expect, with low costs. So its portfolio can be shorter term, and higher grade than any of the funds with similar SEC yields. Specifically, its average duration is 2.5 years, and average AA rated (M*). Its SEC yield is 0.86%. There are only two AA rated funds with SEC yields about 0.5% that are comparable - AUNAX (NTF at TDAmeritrade) 2.2 year duration, but high expense and high M* risk (volatile), and DFSMX 2.7 year duration, but 0.52% SEC yield and, well try to buy DFA funds.
    Compared to cash (I use 1% as a baseline, since that's about what one can get in FDIC-insured online banks) and a 28% tax bracket, the expected return of 0.86% beats the 072% post tax cash return. Go shorter with munis and you won't beat cash; go longer and you'll be taking on higher interest rate risk that I feel pushes the fund too far away from cash. YMMV.
  • Will Active Managers Begin To Outperform?
    Mark
    12:10PM Flag
    The author works for Raymond James. Can you say "possible conflict of interest" because nothing he wrote in the article had me pumping my fists in the air.
    Yes. I think there is clearly a conflict of interest. But, I think there were some good points in his observations and the observations he referenced in the article. Indexes clearly tend to outperform during prolonged periods having strong general up treads. "Good" active managers have better prospects of outperforming when markets are choppy and during prolonged market declines.
    I expect the 90 to 10 out-performance by index funds in the US large cap sector of the stock market will probably be substantially reduced when viewed over the upcoming 10 year period. If that turns out to be the case, investors who currently are or who now choose to invest in quality actively managed funds will have increased odds of being rewarded for their increased spending on fees. (It is my expectation the odds of that happening outside the US large cap area and among foreign funds is higher than in the US large cap area.)
    Doing homework, not picking closet indexes, and periodic monitoring will be necessary. But, it is my expectation investing in funds like YAFFX, BBTEX, and PRBLX -- the chosen 3 in the "large cap, US stock funds" section of my core portfolio -- instead of VFINX provides good prospects of achieving performance that will be at least as good as VFINX over the upcoming 10 years with lower volatility. Time will tell!
  • Biotech’s Rally Fuels Bubble Fears
    @Scott - almost took a toehold at the closing but since it's almost the end of the month (or quarter) and fund managers are playing games with positions and holdings I'm going to let that shake itself off first. GILD has definitely been on the radar though. Do you think they are done splitting shares as has been their MO up to this point?
    I don't see a split any time in the foreseeable future. There is a $15+B buyback in place, as well as a 43c quarterly div starting soon.
    "Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) announced today that the company’s Board of Directors has authorized a dividend program under which the company intends to pay quarterly dividends of $0.43 per share, beginning in the second quarter of 2015, subject to quarterly declarations by the Board of Directors.
    The Board of Directors also approved the repurchase of up to an additional $15.0 billion of the company’s common stock. This new program is in addition to the currently authorized three-year $5.0 billion repurchase program (authorized in May 2014). As of December 31, 2014, approximately $3 billion remained in the May 2014 program. The new program will expire 5 years after the completion of the May 2014 program. Purchases may be made in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions from time to time, as determined by Gilead’s management and in accordance with the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission"
    http://www.gilead.com/news/press-releases/2015/2/gilead-sciences-announces-43-cents-quarterly-dividend-program-and-15-billion-share-buyback-program
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Kraft & Heinz Merger
    It's a huge deal, but I guess I look at this as this industry where the majors basically have had little or no innovation over the last couple of decades. I'm not talking about the processed foods industry having to be wildly innovative, but many of the majors have the same brands they did when I was growing up (and much further back) for better or worse. They haven't tried to really freshen them up in many cases.
    Merging them helps with scale and raw costs, but you look at Kraft and Conagra and the like and the brands are dated. You have these companies that I think have largely rested on their laurels for years. Additionally, not everyone is eating healthy, but you have a bit of a backlash for the very artificial nature of a lot of these products.
    I think at some point these companies have to go after the Hains and Whitewaves and the "roll-up" nature of Kraft/Heinz makes me guess they will integrate more companies. It's not that nobody's going to buy Cheese Whiz anymore - nothing against it and it actually sounds kinda good right now - but it's just I think over time I think people will little-by-little move away from things that are just totally artificial. I mean, look at Jell-o, which has seen declining sales for a while now.