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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Required Reading For Many MFO Members: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified ?
    Well ... hi again, Ted,
    Seems the many post about how many funds to own might have given them something to write about. Ever wonder how many from the press vist the MFO board and pick up on ideas? It would be nice if there were away to find out.
    Perhaps, they have not learned of the Old_Skeet's sleeve system. It is cleaver, neat and it works. In addition, a look at their reported results from different time periods might have produced a better picture of the outcomes. After all, 2014 was indeed a strong year for domestic equities and not so good for the international ones. It would have been good to see the periods of five, ten and fifteen years represented. After all, diverification is designed to have some assets in the faster currents of the markets while others might have found a slower moving channel.
    I still plan to keep on keeping-on with my system. Thinking now of adding a little to my private equity fund, LPEFX.
    For those that might be interested, I have linked its Morningstar report below.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=lpefx&region=USA
    Have a good one,
    Old_Skeet
  • PIMIX / PONDX Lost their groove....managers or where invested.......???
    PONDX a great fund for the conservative investor. As a not so conservative investor this fund lost its allure in the spring of 2013 and have never ventured back. Without checking I assume AUM have soared the past many years making it not as nimble.
  • PIMIX / PONDX Lost their groove....managers or where invested.......???
    Hi @scott,
    PIMIX dropped 3% between Nov 27 and Dec 17 last year, bumped up about 1.5% and remains sideways. And yes, this has been an exceptional bond fund for the past several years of our holding. The fund is 1, 1 and 7 ranking over the past five years and has almost doubled the average return of all M* rated, multisector bond funds.
    Something has changed their previous pattern.
    We also sold all of LSBDX the first week of January, our 2nd largest bond holding at the time.
    This comes from a house that has "overstayed" the bond rally way past what most would have considered to be prudent investing in this sector. Every year for the past 5 years we have been issued warnings about the death of bonds. We also sold our HY bonds, early last fall.
    We're 50% equity right now. Keeping in mind that our investments are all post-retirement directed.
    The major consideration, as with all sells, is where the money will travel next.
    Thank you, scott.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • EQCHX what are your thoughts on this new Managed Futures Fund?
    Managed Futures Funds per M*
    How would an investor find a fund in this category that they would be assured could perform in a steady performance pattern over the years?
    Yes, there are winners and losers over various time frames; but most investors here at MFO, are managing their "future" mix of funds for steady and positive returns, just not using the "common futures tools" that these funds use.
    Check the 3 and 5 year average returns at the link above. Also look at some of the winners and losers in various time frames. One would have to hold 10 of these type of funds to hope for a decent averaged profit, using a best guess method, IMO.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    Combining thread ideas here.
    Ted recently posted a similar Top Performing Global Stock list which revealed a few funds that I might call "Global Hybrid" and what M* calls "World Allocation" funds.
    These funds are typically made up of:
    -stock (both US and Foreign)
    -bonds (both US and Foreign)
    -cash (hedging currency?)
    -other opportunistic holdings
    For example HCOYX holds a large portfolio percentage of its bonds in Argentinian Sovereign debt. I find important and interesting looking under the hood and understanding these fund's holdings.
    A few others "Global Hybrid" / "World Allocation" funds are GAOAX(40% stock/40% bond/20% cash), MDLOX(56/17/15/11% other), SGENX (80% stock/ 20% cash), KTRSX(55% stock/40% bonds), ARTGX(90% stock/ 10% cash).
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Hi Tampabay,
    Thanks for your comment.
    The policy in the family for years has been if you catch, trap or shoot wild game ... you have to fix and eat it. Its one of the reasons I did not shoot any squirrels yesterday. I simply was not in the mood for squirrel stew. However, I did watch Buster and Skeeter tree a few of them yesterday out in the grove. If I shoot the squirrels in the grove then they can not have their afternoon fun. That's why I wrote we would have to take the Jeep and go back into the woods. Last night we had about three inches of new snow fall. Right now I am picking, the best I can, on the key board of my laptop ... thinking about what I'll write under Scott's post ... "What are you buying, selling or pondering?"
    Have a good one ...
    Old_Skeet
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    @Hank, Giroux's work, starting 6/06, may be somewhat different from other allocation funds, or so they claim, but closely analyze its opportunistic performance since then, especially during hard times, compared with similarly opportunistic GLRBX, ICMBX, JABAX, and FPACX. The last few years have been strongest, yes. Otherwise slightly unimpressive, while recently hot. If you add DODBX to the graph, you will see substantiation of its rankings. If I were seeking gogo in this area now, I might add FBALX.
  • Chart Of The Day: Stock Market Rallies: (Dow Since 1900)
    Wonderful time to be in the stock market.....last few years before needing our money for retirement, timing was perfect, 2008 a distant (forgotten) dream(nightmare)
  • Chart Of The Day: Stock Market Rallies: (Dow Since 1900)
    FYI: The Dow just made another all-time record high. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 115 years are plotted on today's chart.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.chartoftheday.com/20150225.htm?H
  • Yes, The World Is Out To Get Active Managers
    FYI: The world is out to get active money managers. As Bloomberg’s Charles Stein reports, they’ve been having a tough economic recovery, with only 21 percent of stock-picking mutual funds beating their benchmarks during the past five years. They (at least, several that Stein talked to) have also identified a culprit on Constitution Avenue:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-24/active-money-managers-have-the-whole-world-against-them
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Those big dogs are still licking their wounds from the 2000 tech bubble pop. Only now has the QQQ come almost back to that level. 15 years drawdown is a long time.
    http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=Qqq
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    @Old_Skeet: Please, your not telling me anything I don't already know about the Nasdaq-100. Check QQQ's performance against any of your fund YTD-10 Years Its time for you to get off the porch and hunt with the big dogs.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Top Performing Global Stock Funds: 1-20 Years
    I've owned SGENX for a number of years when I loved Jean-Marie Eveillard but looking now to hold something that might be very good over next few years, both OAKGX and MWEIX. I'm more interested in past 3 years. We shall see.
  • Gross Fund Hurt By Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds
    Classic Risk/Reward 101
    (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. sold $6.35 billion of bonds, the biggest debt offering by a U.S. oil and gas producer since the 54 percent rout in crude began in July, as investors seek debt of energy producers that can weather the downturn.
    “Chevron is a reminder that all energy companies aren’t created equal,” said Scott Carmack, a money manager at Portland, Oregon-based Leader Capital Corp., which oversees $1.5 billion in fixed-income assets. “They are a behemoth of a company that is built for the long haul. Investors have no problem lending to them.”
    Debt of the riskiest energy companies tracked by Bank of Merrill Lynch Bond Indexes lost more than 9 percent since last June, while those of safer energy securities gained 0.6 percent.
    The new debt is an insurance policy against further declines in oil as well as an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates, Fadel Gheit, Chevron analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., said in a telephone interview.
    “If they see a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, they don’t want to be stuck in a situation where interest rates rise,” he said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/chevron-said-to-plan-bond-sale-in-second-deal-since-oil-plunge
    Original
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322826-chevron-raises-6_35b-in-biggest-oil-bond-deal-since-rout
    Country,Company,Commodity,Corruption Risk Wrapped in One
    Moody's downgrades Petrobras' ratings to Ba2; maintains review for downgrade
    Global Credit Research - 24 Feb 2015
    These rating actions reflect increasing concern about corruption investigations and liquidity pressures that might result from delays in delivering audited financial statements, as well as Moody's expectation that the company will be challenged to make meaningful reduction in its very high debt burden over the next several years. The ratings remain on review for downgrade.
    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Petrobras-ratings-to-Ba2-maintains-review-for-downgrade--PR_319021
    It was the fourth Petrobras downgrade in five months by Moody's.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322936-moody-s-downgrades-petrobras-debt-to-junk
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show; Guest: Skip Aylesworth, Manager, Hennessey Gas Utilities Index Fund
    Mr Alyesworth mentioned that his index fund (GASFX) is based on NG companies membership in the AGA (American Gas Association). Seems qualifying for this index has a bit to do with your membership dues and lobby efforts. Utilities remain a piece on the monopoly game board. I'm an investor in utilities because I am a user of utilities and much like healthcare I see myself needing their services.
    Anyway, Here's the AGA's playbook for 2015:
    playbook.aga.org/mobile/index.html
    This might be better described as a "managed utility/energy index fund". Once managed by FBR...now part of Hennessey's fund GASFX has had long history of being a "smooth operator" especially with all the volatility in the energy markets. VPU is a true utility index fund (100% Utility)...GASFX blends utilities (61%) with energy (38%) and is more concentrated than VPU. GASFX is also 15 % outside the US. Here are the two funds over the last 10 years:
    image
    Here's GASFX 10 yr performance in comparison to oil (USO), Coal (KOL), Natural Gas (UNG), and Energy (XLE):
    image
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    You might use our own database search to browse for options. It's Accipiter's Miraculous Multi-search. Pick a category (diversified Asia/Pacific) and you'll see all of the funds. Returns are color coded (cool colors are good) and it's sortable by field (want to know who has the lowest Ulcer Index? click!). The key to reading the numbers is this: the numbers reflect the age of the fund, we give the 20 year Sharpe for a fund that's 20 years old and the 3 year Sharpe for a fund that's three years old, so be sure to compare funds of similar vintage.
    For what help that offers,
    David
  • Real Estate Funds and Turnover
    I recieved an email back from American Century. In short, the reason given for the high turnover was that 1: this is a new fund (3 years), 2: the assets are only $73million, and 3: the combination of those two facts lends to high turnover as the fund is trying to get on the advisors radars.
    I would figure a lot of buying is involved but is that construed as turnover? I thought turnover was a buy and sell step. The email gave me half an answer which is disappointing. I still plan to hold the fund as it has done very well. It has 5 stars from the big M.
    I suspect they didn't want to get too detailed in their explanation so I could understand better.
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    Most of these funds are "set and forget."
    I have admired BRUFX for many years. Two things that make Bruce a bit different than other Fund companies is that the Bruce Fund has a "mail only" transaction dynamic and you are always fully invested in the fund... no "cash - like" position.
    When shopping for an H.S.A. (health saving acct) custodian last year I chose the Bruce Fund. I will be making yearly contribution to my H.S.A. at Bruce for the next ten years until age 65. Hopefully this fund continues to shine as my bulb dims.
    I like PRWCX a lot and it is my largest holding in my TRP account...another fund that I "set and forget."
    For young investors, own one of these funds on Ted's linked list as a first investment. For retirees, own one of these funds in each of your accounts as one of your last investments.
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    PRASX. Ahn Lu is back from a leave-of-absence. That is the Asia fund I own.
    YTD
    +4.17
    1 MONTH
    +2.23
    1 YEAR
    +14.64
    3 years
    +6.53
    5 years
    +8.92
    10 years
    +12.25
    Ranks in terms of percentile for each period: 53, 65, 23,59, 22, 27.