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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • media economy coverage
    Since this thread is apparently open for politics here goes.
    As distressing as the inflation in the US is, it is far worse in Europe and many other countries. That cannot be blamed on Biden. This is a worldwide phenomena. I tend to believe the one stimulus passed under Biden was too much. Without it, the Democrats could have blamed all the inflation on Trump policies. I guess they thought it was still necessary.
    An overlooked feature of the Chips act is the massive investment in Red States and jobs that do not require college.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-green-subsidies-are-attracting-billions-of-dollars-to-red-states-11674488426
    https://www.brookings.edu/research/with-high-tech-manufacturing-plants-promising-good-jobs-in-ohio-workforce-developers-race-to-get-ready/
    I have read a lot of the 1619 project and object strongly to it's thesis that the American Revolution was fought to protect slavery. This distortion has been widely criticized by professional historians. The NYT is actively promoting 1619 for high school curricula although none of it's authors are historians, and I object to that as strongly as I object to the continuously right wing WSJ editorials.
    On the other hand I can understand some of the criticism in Florida of the Advanced Placement African-American curriculum if, in it's final section, it really does focus on "intersectionalism", black queerness, and demand reparations, without any other perspectives.
    I am generally a lifetime Democrat and strongly support helping people get ahead. To me this means safe neighborhoods and workplaces, laws controlling buildings and roads, decent public schools and rewarding someone financially for a job well done with advancement. Leaving all of these to the private sector, without regulation, is a proven disaster
    I do agree that the Government should cost as little as possible and there are many things the private sector does better, and there are many things people should pay for themselves, if they alone are to benefit. Building sports stadiums come to mind. I do not think the Government should shower benefits on one group or company exclusively if they are not available to everyone and increase our taxes to pay for it.
    Bernie was right to focus on the massive wealth accumulation that investment, side deals and other benefits Federal laws allowed to happen . But his demand that I help pay off all student loans goes to far.
    I do think people with adequate resources should pay the full price for their kids education, and these people should not get their student loans forgiven. However, when the government twists the regulations for private for profit "colleges", to allow their owners to get very rich, under a woman whose family, already billionaires, personally benefits from these regulations ( DeVoes), there is a moral duty to deal with the financial disaster that these regulations caused in students lives.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    "Two feet of snow, slush and ice here on top of frozen soil and heading 10 degrees below zero (F) for the next several days. … I do have plenty of good reds, firewood, and stacks of books available.
    @Mark - Sounds like a living hell out there. Some music to ease the pain ….
    Road to Hell
    -
    @LewisBraham - Thanks for the above post. Much appreciated. A default on its debt by the largest superpower (and financial center) in the world would have many ramifications - some probably not yet imagined. Like I said elsewhere, the FX (foreign currency exchanges) would be a nightmare on the morning after. (Sorry for the apparent oxymoron)
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
    Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
    Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
    If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.
  • Jeremy "The Bear" Grantham
    https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/
    you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.
    " Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"
    SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.
    He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.
    There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    This (delete) rhetoric goes back at least to the (delete) beginning 50s or 60s. Subscribed to (the then very excellent) U.S. News & World Report as a teen - always enjoying reading of current events. So, the “can’t run a household this way” refrain goes back at least (delete) to the 50s and 60s. Truth is … A nation that prints its own currency and backs it with full faith and credit is much different than a household. That’s not to say it doesn’t have to practice good financial policies - just to say the two situations are dissimilar.
    Now, despite these dire warnings of economic doom (delete) over the past 60 years, the nation has done pretty well over those decades, whether measured by the strength of our corporations and financial giants, scientific achievements or numbers of less fortunate in other countries who would like to live and work here. And, the USD is still the envy of most any other nation that issues a currency. So, let’s cool the rhetoric and get on with governing.
    (Delete) Getting back to the “household” analogy. Can households raise armies and go to war? Are they charged with building and maintaining public highways, bridges, airports, seaports and schools? Do they / can they provide subsistence level services for the poor and needy or render emergency relief unto those whose lives have been devastated by fire or flood? The differences are stark - and too numerous to even quantify.
  • Default Denialism is real
    @larryB To me, the Boglehead policy of not alowing any connection to be made between investing/money and politics is the equivalent of don't-ask-don't-tell in the military or don't-say-gay in Florida. There are definitely politics in the investment world, and the investment world is very much in politics--see any number of lobbyists working for financiers/money managers--but there is this pretense that the investment activity itself is apolitical.
    Ironically, denying there is any connection between money and politics is intensely political just as denying that there are gay people in the military or Florida whose voices need to be heard is. A Don't-Say-Politics policy is endorsing a belief in the pursuit of financial profit by any means necessary regardless of that pursuit's impact on employees, consumers, nation states such as America, humanity and the planet's ecosystem. It's pretending life is all profit numbers and there aren't flesh-and-blood people--employees and consumers--producing the profits much like an abstract physics problem which pretends anything falling is falling in a frictionless fictional world.
  • Default Denialism is real
    I don't think it will get that bad, but if it did get that bad, that would be the place to hide. I think the irrationalism we are observing in Congress with one party is always like the human equivalent of "other people's money" in the financial world. Only in the case of politics, it's other people's lives. Moaning about critical race theory or the border or zygote's rights in no way affects the pocketbooks of the party leaders. So, for instance undocumented immigrants are easy targets with little to no downside politically, and considerable upside in terms of votes from their base. But putting the country in default will dramatically affect these politicians' pocketbooks. I don't think they will do it, and what seems irrational to us on those other human, i.e., "social issues" is completely rational to them from the perspective of pandering to their base and their financial backers. It is rational irrationality when all you care about is winning and lining your pocketbook even if it is absurd and cruel to everyone else.
  • Invesco International Core Equity Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880859/000110465923005890/tm233916d2_497k.htm
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE CURRENT
    SUMMARY AND STATUTORY PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR:
    Invesco International Core Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    This supplement amends the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of the above referenced Fund and is in addition to any other supplement(s), unless otherwise specified. You should read this supplement in conjunction with the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and SAI and retain it for future reference.
    On January 19, 2023, the Board of Trustees of AIM International Mutual Funds (Invesco International Mutual Funds) (the “Board”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”), which authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to effect such liquidation, the Fund will close to investments by new accounts after the close of business on February 24, 2023. Existing shareholders will continue to be able to invest in the Fund until the close of business on or about April 10, 2023 when no further purchases or exchanges into the Fund will be accepted as the Fund prepares for liquidation on or about April 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”) as described below. The liquidation may occur sooner if at any time before the Liquidation Date there are no shares outstanding in the Fund. The liquidation may also be delayed or occur sooner if unforeseen circumstances arise. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Liquidation Date.
    To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the Fund, the Fund’s portfolio managers may increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and may no longer be managed to meet its investment objective. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to each remaining shareholder equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. If necessary, the Fund will declare and pay a dividend to distribute to its shareholders all of the Fund’s remaining investment company taxable income, if any, and all of the Fund’s net capital gain, if any (after reduction for any capital loss carry-forward) and any additional amounts necessary to avoid any excise tax. Alternatively, the Fund may, if eligible, treat some or all of such amounts distributed to its shareholders as being paid out as dividends as part of the liquidating distributions. The Fund’s liquidation may be a taxable event to its shareholders. Please consult your tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the prospectus under “Redeeming Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Contingent deferred sales charges will be waived in connection with any redemptions prior to the Liquidation Date. Shareholders who wish to avoid being liquidated out of the Fund altogether may also exchange their shares prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of another Invesco fund, subject to minimum investment account requirements and other restrictions on exchanges as described in the prospectus under “Exchanging Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Any such redemption or exchange of Fund shares for shares of another Invesco fund, as eligible, will generally be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes, except for exchanges in a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account. Shareholders who hold their shares in the Fund through financial intermediaries should contact their financial representatives to discuss their options with respect to the liquidation and the distribution of their redemption proceeds...
  • Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49905/000119312523012796/d440160d497.htm
    497 1 d440160d497.htm HARTFORD MUTUAL FUNDS II INC
    JANUARY 23, 2023
    SUPPLEMENT TO THE FOLLOWING PROSPECTUSES:
    HARTFORD SCHRODERS SECURITIZED INCOME FUND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
    DATED MARCH 1, 2022
    HARTFORD SCHRODERS FUNDS PROSPECTUS
    DATED MARCH 1, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED TO DATE
    This Supplement contains new and additional information regarding Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund and should be read in connection with your Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus.
    On or about February 28, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of The Hartford Mutual Funds II, Inc. (the “Company”), will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”).
    SUSPENSION OF SALES. The Fund is instructing its transfer agent, other service providers, and financial intermediaries to no longer accept any account applications or purchase orders from new investors effective no later than the close of business on January 31, 2023. Accordingly, the Fund will be closed to all new investors on or before that date.
    Until the close of business on February 21, 2023, the Fund will remain open to retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund. After that date, the Fund will no longer accept any purchase orders and will no longer be available for automatic investments (other than dividend reinvestments). Prior to the Liquidation Date, retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions in the Fund.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund may, in the Fund’s discretion, reject any purchase orders for any reason, including for operational reasons relating to the Liquidation of the Fund.
    LIQUIDATION OF ASSETS. To prepare for the Liquidation, it is anticipated that the Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it prepares to distribute its assets to investors. It is anticipated that the Fund’s sub-adviser will increase the portion of the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar investments and reduce maturities of non-cash investments in order to prepare for orderly liquidation and to meet anticipated redemption requests. As a result, the Fund’s portfolio may consist of all or substantially all cash or cash equivalents prior to the Liquidation Date, which may adversely affect the Fund’s performance. From the date of this Supplement, the Fund may invest all or a substantial portion of its assets in cash or cash equivalents. The impending liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios, although existing expense limitations are expected to be maintained.
    In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will automatically be redeemed by the Fund as of the Liquidation Date (except as noted below for qualified accounts that were opened directly with the Hartford Funds). The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or provided for. The distribution to shareholders of the Liquidation proceeds will occur on the Liquidation Date, and will be made to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on the business day preceding the Liquidation Date, other than as disclosed below. The Fund’s investment manager, Hartford Funds Management Company, LLC (“HFMC”), will bear all expenses associated with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses. However, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs associated with the sale of the Fund’s holdings prior to Liquidation...
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    @davidrmoran I don't quite get the debt-to-GDP fixation. To me, as a country matures as first a developing, then a developed nation, it makes sense that GDP slows and more of its citizens financial wherewithal is in assets like stocks, bonds and real estate as opposed to income from GDP production. Developed nations are starting from a high GDP production base--the law of large numbers applies to their growth--and they generally have older populations who are less productive as they retire. The older populations stem from better healthcare as well as the fact that education comes with development and women have less children as a result. Thus, the workforce ages and GDP growth slows. So, I don't understand why the debt-to-GDP ratio is so significant when the wealthiest Americans have so much accumulated non-GDP producing wealth that is largely untaxed or taxed at a much lower rate than income. In short, America needs a real wealth tax to pay down its debt. Yet there are obvious political problems with getting such a tax passed: https://npr.org/2021/11/13/1054711913/progressives-wealth-tax-super-rich-elon-musk-jeff-bezos What could work is some sort of tax treaty that bars any sort of tax shelters between trading partners globally so there can be no skipping town once a wealth tax is imposed.
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    @LewisBraham,
    Several Morningstar articles had mentioned the use of quantitative research for DODEX.
    "Dodge & Cox isn’t normally associated with quantitative work, but quant analysis can serve fundamental strategies just as well as tactical trading strategies. Robert Turley, who holds a doctorate in business economics, has had a big impact on the firm’s quantitative and risk management work. He’s one of six named managers on Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock (DODEX). This fund has made quantitative research more central to the process than it is at other funds."
    Link
    "Unlike the firm’s other offerings, however, this one relies on a quantitative model—developed by committee member Robert Turley—to find attractive stocks. The firm’s vaunted analyst team doesn’t dive deeply into the model’s recommendations; it simply checks if those stocks meet the team’s expectations for valuation, management, and business prospects."
    Link
    Dodge & Cox communications emphasize the use of fundamental research for DODEX.
    I did not find quantitative research explicitly mentioned.
    "Dodge & Cox relies on fundamental research to select investments for the Fund’s portfolio, supplemented by financial screening models that help identify companies from within the Fund’s investment universe for further consideration by research analysts."
    Summary Prospectus
    "The Fund is constructed based on Dodge & Cox’s strict valuation discipline and fundamental approach to stock selection, with a portfolio built on the expertise of our global industry analysts. In the years we have spent investing in emerging market companies for other Dodge & Cox mutual funds, we have built tools to enhance our analysts’ ability to identify risks and opportunities in emerging markets."
    Link
  • U.S. Treasury Department to take "extraordinary measures" as government nears debt ceiling
    And so the game of chicken has begun. Who blinks first? The mainstream politicians in both parties or the financial terrorists holding the government and our economy hostage?
    https://usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/13/treasury-department-us-debt-ceiling-republicans/11047076002/
  • crypto: subversive, illegal, nefarious.
    I think a serious debate needs to occur with regulators as to whether crypto is or is not really an asset class that should be legal to invest in. They've been dodging this question for too long and because of that the financial services industry has created investment products around a thing that produces no cash flow, has no operating business, is not a tangible physical asset and its origins remain unknown. The question in 2023 isn't who is John Galt? It's who is Satoshi Nakamoto? And why should we trust that this anonymous inventor of a virtual thing has the world's and investors' best interests at heart?
  • TRP Global Technology PRGTX Upcoming Manager Change
    IIRC, back when I held it, Josh Spencer ran the fund fairly aggressively, too ... but he managed it quite well. I always liked PRGTX but think it got a bit reckless and IMO became addicted to Hopium(tm) in recent years (like Cathie Wood), so perhaps the manager change is deserved.
    A 55% loss is inexcusable, in my view. Growth was rapidly falling out of favor as rates rose, yet I guess Tu stuck to his plan and rode it all the way down instead of trimming or moving more into safer holdings and/or cash. Reminds me of DODFX sticking to financial stocks during the GFC because it was "the plan" ... or Arnott holding a 20% short S&P position in his fund during years of a bull market because it was "his model."

    When the situation changes, what would you do?
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    "I made my money selling too soon" has been attributed to how many famous investors besides Bernard Baruch?
    "But don't try to time the markets!" Sez, a lot of people.
    "Where does dry powder come from anyway after you have retired?" The children ask. Who will tell them?
    I remember writing on this site about selling all the bond funds in my IRA because they were up a silly amount for bonds. And I don't like bonds much anyway. So out they went.
    That worked out OK in some ways. But I can't promise that I squeezed the last ounce out of those investments.
    Some of the money went into growth, which has been hammered. Some of the money went into value, which has done ok. Utilities and staples have done OK. Some went into greens that have tread water. And some is still dry powder.
    But I'm happier holding this stuff than I was the bonds. So there's a better chance I'll leave it alone until it has a chance to do its thang.
    And then I will have to worry about the right way to rebalance. And whether I ought to own bonds because they're financial dental floss.
  • 20 Funds for Investors to Consider in 2023
    For Blue Chip Growth TRBCX, Price has an ETF cousin TCHP and also a CIT version.
    Price ETFs https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/etf
    Price CITs (lower-ER; unlisted; regulated by OCC, not SEC) https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/collective-investment-trusts.html
    Other firms have similar cousins of OEFs too. So, some of the outflows from OEFs are just into their ETF or CIT cousins. This isn't fully captured by fund industry asset tracking.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    from
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/opinion/election-deniers-recession-inflation.html
    Over the year ending in November (the most recent data available), the Consumer Price Index rose 7.1 percent. But inflation ran at an annual rate of only 4.8 percent over the past six months, 3.6 percent over the past three months and 1.2 percent in November.
    True, inflation has been held down in part by events that probably won’t be repeated, like the plunge in gasoline prices over the second half of 2022. On the other hand, there’s good reason to believe that housing inflation — which accounts for about a third of the Consumer Price Index — has declined sharply, but that this decline isn’t yet reflected in official statistics.
    Add in the latest data on wages, which were seriously encouraging, and a reasonable estimate is that we’ve regained full employment with underlying inflation only a point or two above prepandemic levels. That’s not a perfect situation, and squeezing out the remaining inflation may (or may not!) be hard, but it’s hardly a picture of catastrophe.
    For what it’s worth, financial markets have basically declared the inflation threat over: They’re implicitly predicting roughly 2 percent inflation as far as the eye can see. They’re also willing to buy federal debt at interest rates that are up a bit but still low by historical standards, showing no hint of concerns about U.S. solvency.
    Still, Republicans are determined to see economic and fiscal disaster, ...
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    We can have turmoil and crisis but if it will not last for months-years, the global financial system will collapse. If you can't trust MM in Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab we have a bigger problem. A real crisis would lead to big stock+bond decline, and shutting down trade. We had already
    www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/money-market-reserve-fund-meltdown.asp
    The most important, what should you do now? I don't see any good solution and the ones you think are good, may hurt you even more.
    But, if you insist on being afraid, maybe you should buy gold and fill your basement, or maybe you can build an underground stand alone bunker and get all the power from the sun + fill the bunker with food and guns.
    It makes me smile when investors worry about something with low chance of happening, AKA, shut down the global financial system...
    But, have no problem holding to stocks and losing 20+% at the bottom, or when bonds lose over 10%...all happened in 2022.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    If there is an actual default there will be no safe havens except possibly gold.
    I don't anticipate a default although I assume there will be plenty of drama regarding debt ceiling legislation.
    I'm not making any tactical portfolio changes in response to the situation.
    "If Congress were to ever allow the debt ceiling to lapse and Treasury was forced to default, the consequences would be severe. Interest costs throughout the world would likely increase. Investors would demand higher rates on future Treasury bonds, increasing the interest costs to taxpayers. There would likely be ripple effects throughout the financial system that would increase interest rates on mortgages, student loans, car loans, credit cards, and other debt. A long impasse could prompt a financial crisis and ultimately threaten the US Dollar’s central role in the global financial system. All of this could trigger a severe economic depression, bringing job losses and serious hardship to millions of families in the United States and around the world."
    "There is a debate about whether the debt ceiling is useful or needed. Some argue that the debt ceiling is outdated, given the central role that Treasury debt now plays in the global financial system and that we now have a formal congressional budget process that gives Congress a regular opportunity to review and modify overall fiscal policy. Eliminating the debt ceiling would prevent Members of Congress from threatening the full faith and credit of the United States and holding our economy hostage in order to force action on other legislation, and it would allow fiscal debates to take place without the threat of a looming financial crisis. Others argue that Congress should retain control over the debt ceiling as a matter of Congressional prerogative."
    Link
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    If safety is the primary concern, I would see no reason for favoring German Bonds, Exxon or Apple over Treasury bonds and T-Bills in particular. If T-Bills failed because of financial terrorists holding our government hostage, every other securities market will go down with them. There is a reason why T-bill interest is called the “risk-free” rate. The only hedge in such a disastrous environment would probably be physical gold.