Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.
    Indeed. Having eaten beef in Europe, South America, and Asia, it tastes totally different than American beef which often has been fed all sorts of crap and given all sorts of drugs to help provide 'greater yield' compared to those other regions ... such Frankenfoods definitely play a role in the obesity problems, even if they're not necessarily processed. The same with wheat, which is engineered and grown more for 'yield' and 'cost savings' than nutritional value -- the wheat of today, especially in the USA is NOT the wheat from 200 or 1000 years ago.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    We also us JPMC as our primary bank- all of our SS and retirement income is channeled through them, and then automatically transferred to Schwab twice a month. Both JPMC and Schwab have offices one block away from our home, so dealing with either of them is very easy. I don't believe that our JPMC branch still offers deposit boxes, but they have maintained ours for many years.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    new medication will improve lives and reduce junk food consumption.

    What a strange world we live in that we have to buy expensive drugs to save us from consuming
    stuff that should rarely go into our shopping carts.
    I remember when 'Wheat Belly' was published 15 or so years ago and how the grain/junk food industry was playing dirty pool trying to discredit the author (a cardiologist) and plant seeds of doubt. Seeing how the industry was being so proactive in their nonsense, I presumed the book was probably on to something. But the book was eye-opening .... I went low-bad-carb for a year, lost a TON of weight, and haven't looked back. Since then i've learned the food industry will do ANYTHING to keep its customers hooked, and the pharma industry will do ANYTHING to address symptoms but not 'cure' the underlying causes ... both in the name of $$$$$$, of course.
    By contrast, a longtime friend is on a GLP-1. They were never a chronic junk or processed food addict, worked out regularly, and generally had a healthy lifestyle yet struggled with weight and major appetite issues for decades. She started on GLP-1s last year and (last I heard) is down 25# and says they're feeling/looking like a new person in ways "not since college." I think GLP-1s are game changers, plus I'm seeing studies about how they're showing promise for other conditions, too.....and if GLP-1s can help metabolic issues, that can have a follow-on benefit for patients who don't need as many drugs for conditons, new medical devices, replacement knees/hips, etc. So in that regard I think Giroux is spot-on in this assessment. But it's great for patients, but bad for some companies.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    I've been a happy owner of JHQAX for many years now and think of it's expected return and volatility the same as you stated, like a moderate balanced fund. But I also bought into the T.Rowe Price hedged fund, PHEFX, when it came out and have steadily increased the holding. PHEFX has actually returned more than JHQAX with what seems to be slightly more volatility. 1 year return for JHQAX=15.2%, PHEFX=22.7%. In comparison to a well known balanced fund, PRWCX=16.9% while the S&P 500 has returned ~22% in the past 1 year. FWIW.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    "Wire form UI to other brokerages is a mess"
    Please elaborate. I have not done a wire from Fido to other brokerages in a couple of years and I have a short memory for unpleasant things.
    Do not you need a Fido CMA account to use zelle?
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    Good point, @sven, regarding Capital Appreciation. It appears that Segalas got some help from other Jennison Associates colleagues in the last few years of his service. These days, three of them are running the OEF while those three, plus a fourth, run the PGIM Jennison Focused Growth ETF (PJFG) and the Harbor Long-Term Growers (WINN). WINN has $500M under management, so no trading problems. Both are very aggressive sporting large positions in the Mag 7.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
    Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
    It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    Spiros “Sig” Segalas who managed Capital Appreciation fund passed away several years ago. The fund is team managed today. Still very good but no where nearly as good as it used to be. Other Harbor OEFs are so so.
    Time have changed and BG’s investment style is clearly out of favor since the pandemic. Additionally, their higher EM exposure does not help.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Yes. 20% in a money market fund - Delaware Cash Reserves. The company is no longer existent.
    Wasn’t all happy. Especially shopping for groceries in the big stores in the northern (Detroit) suburbs. There were always several employees moving up / down the aisles marking items up by hand. No bar codes in those days. Things went up fast. The loaf of bread you paid 50 cents for became 60 cents a few weeks later and 75 cents by year’s end. On and on it went. Not only bread. Meats, staples, everything rising. Year after year. So, after paying federal income tax on your 20% “windfall” you were lucky to end up ahead. Fortunately unions were strong and protected workers with COLA wage raises. To some extent, non union workers benefited indirectly.
    This source shows annual inflation peaking around 18% in 1980 and remaining in double-digits for several years.
    I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. But maybe I wasn’t looking or listening. I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @AndyJ- Yes sir, you are correct on that. Still, 50 years of damage ain't great.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Compare those chart events with Reagan years (1980-88) and Volcker years at the Fed, 08/1979* - 08/1983** - 08/1987.
    In 1987, rumor went both ways - one was that Volcker didn't want a 3rd term, and another that Reagan wasn't going to nominate him for the 3rd term, had a search setup for possible replacement that was headed by Greenspan. The politician that Greenspan was, he recommended reappointing Volcker, but Reagan nominated Greenspan instead.
    Two months into Greenspan's term, stock market crashed on 10/19/1987 (Black Monday). It had more to do with dollar and some harsh statements that the US Treasury Secretary Baker made about Germany and the US allies.
    BTW, as reported by various sources, it was Baker who said to Volcker that the President was "ordering" him to lower rates. Reagan (who was present) and Volcker didn't say anything. Volcker left the meeting without reacting to Baker's "order".
    *Nominated by Carter
    **Nominated by Reagan
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    B-G's funds have been out of style for the past few years. It's not just with HAIGX and B-G's sleeve of VWIGX. M*'s automated analysis notes: "The parent firm's five-year risk-adjusted success ratio [is] 21%". See, M*'s quant analyses are not entirely useless. :-)
    HAIGX is a clone of B-G's BGCSX. 44 holdings overlap, all of which are in each fund's top 50 (M* portfolio tool). Same set of managers. And no management investment at BGCSX either.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "Lived through 20% interest rates in the 70s or 80s."
    Made a killing on that... bonds out of Utah (Mormons) to build a huge electric generating facility at Four Corners. Terrific income until they were called a couple of years later. It wasn't until fairly recently that I became aware that I had helped build an enormous coal-fired generating complex. Who knew?
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am somewhat amused by all of the criticism regarding BofA. I came to the same conclusion over fifty years ago. When BofA took over the bank that held our mortgage I walked into our local branch, was granted an audience with the surly unfriendly woman who had replaced the former pleasant and helpful manager, handed her a check (on a different bank) and paid off the mortgage then and there. Haven't had any traffic with BofA since.
    When I was a youngster (1940s/50s) BofA was headquartered in San Francisco. It had taken over and replaced a historic and outstanding local bank: The Bank of Italy, started by A.P. Giannini, a revered local businessman. After the earthquake of 1906 Mr. Giannini loaded all of his customer's money into horse-drawn wagons and transported it down the San Francisco peninsula to his own home, where it was safe from the fire which later consumed his bank offices in San Francisco's North Beach enclave.
    image
    From Wickipedia:
    A. P. Giannini was an American banker who founded the Bank of Italy, which eventually became Bank of America. Giannini is credited as the inventor of many modern banking practices. Most notably, Giannini was one of the first bankers to offer banking services to middle-class Americans, mainly Italian immigrants, rather than only the upper class. He also pioneered the holding company structure and established one of the first modern trans-national institutions.
    My father, who was also Italian, had nothing but contempt for the BofA, which had turned a friendly and helpful local bank into what you folks are still observing today. Boy, was he ever right.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    WCPNX. 5.6 years duration. I like what I see there.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Long term bonds (treasuries or other) are often regarded as useful primarily for placing bets on interest rate movements, i.e. speculating. Most of the time long term bonds don't offer enough extra yield over intermediate term bonds to be worth the risk as investments.
    Currently, though the yield curve is largely inverted, at least you're getting a little risk premium with longs over intermediates.
    https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
    Pushing on a string may not be the best metaphor, but the Fed pushes on the short end of the curve. That end has a lot of room to go down without long end yields necessarily dropping.

    10 year Treasuries are still under 4%, while their long term historical average is 4.25%. There's not much room for 30 years to drop in yield if they're going to stay above 10 year rates. 30 year Treasuries are now also below their historical average of 4.74%.
    We've already seen a drop in 30 year rates. Mortgages have dropped half a percent percent in the past month and are not expected to decline further this year, even with an anticipated Fed rate cut.
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-forecast/
    All of this is not to say that long term rates won't drop a lot more. Or they might not. When and how much are also open questions.
    Me, I'm sticking with intermediates. Win a little, lose a little, they offer more stability as backup for cash in the 3-7 year timeframe.
    Side note: I suspect that cap gains on Treasuries are not state income tax exempt. While I have been unsuccessful in finding writing one way or the other, there are many sources documenting the fact that cap gains on muni bonds are state taxable. ISTM the situations are analogous.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Advantage Fidelity:
    The nice thing about Schwab ATM is the fact you can take out money around the world and they will refund you the fee by the end of the month. (Confirmed; see footnote 8)
    At Fidelity "The reimbursement will be credited to the account the same day the ATM fee is debited." (See footnote 2.)
    About Fidelity's disclaimer that it may not cover the 1% network exchange fee ... No one seems to have actually been charged. That includes me - I did a test at Heathrow a few years ago - same ATM, same withdrawal amount; compared Schwab and Fidelity, no difference.
    The Finance Buff, Fidelity Debit Card Foreign Transaction Fee on ATM Withdrawals
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    LOL - Wish it were that simple! However, I have not held much cash for many years. I understand that the hypothetical, highly rumored, speculated and anticipated “Fed rate cut” would impact those who have been sitting in cash for the past year (while the S&P 500 rose 28%).
    I’m trying to get my head around where to cull a little risk without dumping any apples out of the cart. Have a substantial TOD position in PRHYX (short-term muni junk fund). I’d have expected to have spent that on a new vehicle or home infrastructure by now - but haven’t for various reasons. I’m thinking next week I may move a good portion of that into SPAXX (money market fund) as a quality upgrade to my fixed income posture. (All 3 accounts, TOD + 2 IRAs, are considered as one for allocation purposes.)
    If things get any crazier next week I might even move a bit of IRA cash into SPDN (2X inverse S&P) as a downside hedge. Prefer that to selling out of any major positions because I think they are good long term holds and not nearly as “bubbly” as the major indexes. I’d liken the froth atop them to be more like the head of foam on a stein of good beer. (Don’t dump out the beer because of the froth.)
    My fixed income funds now (aside from cash):
    - PRIHX
    - WEA
    - LSST
    - CVSIX - Arbitrage fund / Seeks to produce bond-like returns with lower volatility
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I vaguely recall Schwab saying years ago that some of its branches (largely west coast?) functioned as banks as well as brokerages. That doesn't seem to be true now - Schwab Bank seems to be a pure internet bank.
    Fidelity used to have pseudo ATMs in their branches where you could deposit checks, but not get cash. Those also vanished years ago. I guess the cost of maintaining something that did only one task, did it only marginally faster than the human being at the desk, and was limited to branch hours made no sense. Nice when it worked, though.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @BaluBalu : I've been with BMO for a few years since they bought out my former bank.
    I had to open a checking account that pays .o5 % to get my MM account to pay 2.2% .
    I just moved money over to Schwab to get a better rate!
    This week I received notice that a CD is maturing & that it would rollover at the "new" rate. I don't remember that it was roll-able , but will probably be sending that money elsewhere, unless they can come up with 5%. If my SS & pension checks weren't going there, I'd be gone.
    Yes they're friendly bankers, but I wouldn't recommend them to anyone!
    Let me add that after I opened the checking account I received 4 starter checks. Wouldn't you think if they were friendly, they would send out a box of 40 or fifty checks ?! No they would order them & then charge the account, as that is what happens with the MM account. Then I stop in at the bank & see if they'll eat the checking printing charge & they do, but why the run around?