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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Asset Classes: Real 10-Year Expected Return
    Does Ritholtz have the prediction he made ten years ago so we can compare?
    I agree with MJG and Old_Joe.
  • Best L/S Fund
    Wait a second. Their YTD performance number is flat. If 8.13% is being charged means they made that return. Something is not right. Please see below note in the prospectus

    The Adviser has contractually agreed to reduce Management Fees and to absorb the Fund’s other operating expenses (for the life of the Fund) to the extent necessary to limit annual ordinary operating expenses to an amount not exceeding 1.90% of the Fund’s average daily net assets. Management Fee reductions and expenses absorbed by the Adviser are subject to repayment by the Fund for a period of three years after such fees and expenses were incurred, provided that the repayments do not cause the ordinary operating expenses of the Fund to exceed the 1.90% limit. Ordinary operating expenses includes all Fund expenses except brokerage, taxes, borrowing costs such as interest and dividend expenses on securities sold short, Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses and extraordinary expenses. The Adviser’s right to receive repayment of any Management Fee reductions and/or expense reimbursements terminates if the Adviser ceases to serve as investment adviser to the Fund. This agreement may be terminated by either the Fund or the Adviser upon not less than 60 days prior written notice to the other party, provided, however, that (1) the Adviser may not terminate the agreement without the approval of the Board of Trustees, and (2) the agreement will terminate automatically as to the Fund if, and when, the Adviser ceases to serve as investment adviser of the Fund.

    I don't think investors are paying 8.13%
  • Grandeur Peak 3Q Commentary
    @00BY, thanks for posting the very interesting study!! The numbers may be a little surprising but not too much. When I think about the SAI's I've looked through, its not very often I see a pension plan or endowment on the list of 5% owners. It's almost always the Schwab's, Fidelity's, TD Ameritrade's, E*TRADE's and Vanguard's that own a very large portion of fund assets and in most cases they would represent households through company sponsored 401K plans, IRAs or individual accounts. I do guess, however, that Grandeur Peak's breakdown is not reflective of the same split. It could be that the 19% Institutions number are non-households according to the study. It isn't totally clear, though, whether these numbers are based on where they get their assets or whether its the number of investors regardless of the assets they invest.
    I did discover a few interesting facts based on this study though. I'm a little shocked that 53% of people who own mutual funds are not college graduates (47% are). I know that 50 or 60 years ago a college education wasn't as common as today, but it strikes me as a shocking number.
    It seems a little ironic that 47% invest in mutual funds to reduce income taxes. I wasn't actually aware that mutual funds reduced taxes. Maybe its just a misuse of the words, since they may consider the mutual funds held in a 401K plan or IRA as reducing their taxes, when in fact its the IRA or 401K that affects taxes, not the mutual fund. Otherwise, I think the only way a mutual fund lowers taxes is by having a lower return or higher expenses than if you invested in some other way, and neither of those seems like a good thing.
    I also found out my wife belongs to a different generation that I do, barely, but that explains a lot! :) I knew she was young, but I didn't realize she was that young.
  • Catching falling knives
    @Old_Skeet My earlier comment may have (unintentionally) come off as being critical and I apologize for that. What I meant to say is that I appreciate all comments made in this forum and incorporate them into my decision making process.
    One of my regrets in my investing career is that I spent too much time (and money) trying to uncover star fund managers and time the market. Moving more and more into ETF indexing, particularly in the domestic, REIT and emerging market areas. Bonds are still actively managed with many of the managers mentioned here (PIMCO, Gundlach, Fuss, Gaffney). International holdings are about 50/50 index ETFs/actively managed.
    Have a small percentage allocated to commodities...probably spent too much time listening to those that Paul Krugman of the NYT would call "inflation scolds". Have some PAUDX, but think Arnott is a better academic than investment manager. Use Target Date funds...relatively easy to pick out the better long term performers there. Have an allocation to alternatives, which I call my fun money.
    Would like to find some "defensive" mutual funds, but not convinced there is such a thing. Yacktman funds come to mind. Yes, he did do well in the 2007-2009 downturn, but does that mean he will do well in the next downturn? Has done just average in the last 5 years.
    Ten years ago I would have laughed if someone said I couldn't uncover managers who would "beat the market" and do better than average. Now, I'm not so sure.
  • Wednesday. Oct. 22. Before the Bell.
    I'm not a coffee drinker, but Starbucks is - I think - successful in large part due to the leadership of Howard Schultz, who I do think is one of the great CEOs (and I liked his books.)
    Chipotle had huge growth, but a weaker-than-expected forecast. I don't get Chipotle (and I look at a number of Yelp reviews for locations and they don't get great reviews), but the growth they're having continues to roll on - it just becomes do you want to buy it at nearly a 50 p/e.
    What they're doing in terms of introducing new concepts (something McDonalds should have done ages ago instead of resting on the fact that it's McD's) is smart. I wouldn't invest in it (I have to really care about something/have an interest to invest, among other things), but I think they're doing the right things. McDonald's would have been smart not to have sold its stake in Chipotle years ago.
    I think what's more troubling that no one really talks about is how obliterated a number of the restaurant IPOs that people hoped were the next Chipotle got. Noodles and Co probably the biggest example:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NDLS+Interactive#{"range":"max","scale":"linear"}
  • Catching falling knives
    >>>>>I think a lot of this lengthy discussion stems from Scott's "What are you buying ... selling ... pondering" threads. While I find the comments in those threads interesting, I've never seen them as meant to give actionable advice. If that's the intent, it might be a good idea for future contributors to include (1) an explanation of why they took the action, (2) the percentage of their overall holdings so invested and (3) the specific time frame (measured in weeks, months, or years) before which they expect to realize a profit. For my part, I'll refrain from mentioning any sales or purchases I've made in those threads in the future. <<<<<
    Couldn't agree more Hank!!! Some here have a seemingly unlimited bankroll and hold just about every listed stock and fund in the universe.
  • Catching falling knives
    "On this board, I look for well reasoned actionable advice."
    There's lots of advice here. Most I dare say sounds reasonable. Do I consider it "actionable"? Emphatically No. That's unless your time horizon is measured in decades. (Some of the best actionable advice in that regard pertains to buying low cost index funds.)
    Shorter term? ... Nobody really knows what will happen tomorrow or next month. Even a great house like T. Rowe Price cautions us in writing that the fund we're about to purchase may lose money. And the big fellas earning millions a year at the hedge funds don't get it right every time either.
    I admire Ol Skeet's willingness to spend so much time explaining his approach and trying to make it understandable. I'd never be able to articulate mine so clearly. As many know, Skeet's father was a long time investor and taught him much. So he's literally spent a lifetime watching markets. I'm sure many things he does are second nature to him, in the same way we learn to drive.
    I think a lot of this lengthy discussion stems from Scott's "What are you buying ... selling ... pondering" threads. While I find the comments in those threads interesting, I've never seen them as meant to give actionable advice. If that's the intent, it might be a good idea for future contributors to include (1) an explanation of why they took the action, (2) the percentage of their overall holdings so invested and (3) the specific time frame (measured in weeks, months, or years) before which they expect to realize a profit. For my part, I'll refrain from mentioning any sales or purchases I've made in those threads in the future.
  • Ned Davis: With High-Yield Play, Consider Shorter Duration Funds
    Hi all,
    In review of my income sleeve within my portfolio which consist of the following funds ... EVBAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX and TSIAX ... it appears the managers have now lowered their duration and the sleeve currently has a duration reading of 3.4 years. In addition, its yield is 3.6% and thus far it has had a total return of 4.3% ytd.
    It appears that the manages are doing their job in managing interest rate risk while at the same time providing a good income stream with a yield of about 3.6 percent along with a decent total return at 4.3% thus far this year.
    Score me, a happy camper.
    Old_Skeet
  • Midcap Stock Funds Feel Effects Of Pullback
    FYI: Midcap stock mutual funds, like their small-cap cousins, have lagged large-cap funds and the S&P 500 this year, but midcaps remain close behind small caps' stellar performance in the past 15 years.
    Look what a $10,000 investment on Sept. 30, 1999, would do in each. Investors holding the average midcap stock fund would have $36,323 as of Oct. 20 this year, according to Morningstar data. That's a bit behind small-cap funds, which would have $39,299.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1ODMzNjI=
    Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv1022.gif&docId=722910&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=722911
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112,
    Thanks for your comments.
    I am linking the details on the seasonal strategy that I have followed for a good many years.
    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/sts
    Call it a timming strategy if you like ... or call ... it a rebalance of sorts based upon the calendar. Old_Skeet
    Thanks Old_Skeet.
    So do you "sell in May and go away" according to the STS? Do you subscribe to both these newsletters and follow their advice?
    I don't recall you posting in the last several months that you "sold in May and went away"
    How have you been applying these 2 newsletters?
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112,
    Thanks for your comments.
    So far it looks as though it might come through as I anticipated as history tells us STS will work more times than not. However, there are many things that can take place for the rally to turn as you have stated above. Note though history tells me that the best time to be invested in the stock market is during the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of each year. With this, I just put in what I am expecting to get paid back out through anticipated capital gains distributions during the months of November and December. My gain, with this, will be what is made on the spiff between now and then. After that I'll be back to my starting equity allocation once the distributions have taken place plus or minus the gain and/or loss that might occur on my remaining invested principal.
    I am linking the details on the seasonal strategy that I have followed for a good many years. Again, note that it has worked for me more times than not and I felt my chances of it working now were greater, by my thinking, than it not working. There seems from what I have been recently reading and hearing that big money sold around the low of 1840 to 1820 during the recent plullback, perhaps this was due to margin calls as reported by some news outlets and now they are having to buy back in at higher levels pushing prices back upward. And, another ... I felt good corporate earnings would be coming through for the third quarter reporting and thus far they have. It has been my experience that earnings drive the markets.
    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/sts
    Call it a timming strategy if you like ... or call ... it a rebalance of sorts based upon the calendar. I am still within the confines of my asset allocation and from my thinking that makes me an investor rather than a trader as they seem to be all in or all out over short periods of time. So, call it what you like, either way, I am currently on the heavy side in my equity allocation.
    Old_Skeet
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    Hi Hank- Yeah, we've subscribed to the Smithsonian for many years, but I have to tell you that even that has been "dumbed down", confusing somebody's ideas of a "wonderful new layout" with previously solid reporting. Used to read it cover-to-cover, but now the quality varies widely between issues, and we find ourselves picking and choosing. Some issues are much better than others, but the whole thing is now somewhat shaky. We've come close to cancelling, but we're still hoping for a change for the better.
    With respect to the Chron, you're probably better off reading it via the internet- in the last two weeks we've had to call because of late or non-delivery about ten times. In other great news, we've just been informed by the WSJ that here in SF they are going to combine their delivery, which up till now has been very reliable, with that of the Chron, so now we probably won't get either one on time. How come NOTHING ever gets better, only worser??
  • Best L/S Fund
    I'm waiting for the period over the next year where this fund - which, admittedly has had stunning performance for a fund in the managed futures category - under-performs for a period (given the nature of the fund, it will happen) and everyone who got in because of its initial performance gets upset and dumps it.
    So true. Like L/S funds, managed futures funds are in a troubled space that has not done well over the past 3-years, and many of the funds I follow in this space are somewhat pricey (I follow PQTIX, ASFYX, EQCHX, HFXIX, LCSIX). For these reasons, I am following but not buying PQTIX. Maybe PIMCO has the secret sauce for the space, but maybe they don't. Time will tell.
    Kevin
    I have TFSHX. What's your opinion on it?
  • Meridian Small Cap Growth
    I just added some additional money to this fund. It's up about 9% this year, despite the hit small cap stocks have taken. I invested when it first opened, taking advantage of the legacy shares lower fees for long-term Matthews investors.
    I'm a value fund investor, but I thought I would give these guys a chance. So far, so good. MVALX has been good to me over the years.
  • M* An Aggressive Retirement Saver Portfolio
    Hi Guys,
    In selecting her aggressive retirement portfolio, Benz wisely chose 7 funds that all had positive Alphas for the past 5 years. Now comes the acid test. Will these funds retain their positive Alphas for the next 5years?
    Who knows? Historically, that has not been the case with reversion to the mean exerting its influence.
    Best Regards.
  • Best L/S Fund
    @Scott
    I'm waiting for the period over the next year where this fund - which, admittedly has had stunning performance for a fund in the managed futures category - under-performs for a period (given the nature of the fund, it will happen) and everyone who got in because of its initial performance gets upset and dumps it.
    So true. Like L/S funds, managed futures funds are in a troubled space that has not done well over the past 3-years, and many of the funds I follow in this space are somewhat pricey (I follow PQTIX, ASFYX, EQCHX, HFXIX, LCSIX). For these reasons, I am following but not buying PQTIX. Maybe PIMCO has the secret sauce for the space, but maybe they don't. Time will tell.
    Kevin
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    I've found in past years the distribution totals were fairly accurate but would shift a little in the amounts of dividends vs. short term cap gains vs. long term capital gains.
    These gains are based only of the gains and losses the fund incurred when selling a security that was in the fund.
    This distribution has nothing to do with the YTD or any other investor performance, although a fund that has lost money is likely to have more shares redeemed by shareholders. This could force the fund to sell some assets to pay the shareholders getting out. Some funds try to manage the distributions to minimize taxable income passed to the remaining shareholders, and some don't.
    Dave
  • Help with Rollover IRA at Price
    Thanks folks,
    All great suggestions that I will heed. PRWCX has been great for years. Core type fund.
    As mentioned, wifey has her rollover there and I had a traditional IRA there for about 10 years.
    Whence I get it set up, I'll share with you good people.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Behind Private Equity's Curtain
    FYI: From New York to California, Wisconsin to Texas, hundreds of thousands of teachers, firefighters, police officers and other public employees are relying on their pensions for financial security.
    Private equity firms are relying on their pensions, too. Over the last 10 years, pension funds have piled into private equity buyout funds. But in exchange for what they hope will be hefty returns, many pension funds have signed onto a kind of omerta, or code of silence, about the terms of the funds’ investments.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/business/retirement/behind-private-equitys-curtain.html?ref=business
    I hold a position in KKR: M* Snapshot Of KKR:http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/kkr/s?t=kkr