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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am exploring options to consolidate my banking and brokerage relationships.
    Have you guys dealt with BoA banking?
    I have been a client of Merrill for more than 10 years and hence I have a BoA checking (minimal activity) and BoA credit cards.
    Today, I went into the BoA branch to open a new account (my Merrill contact had set up an appointment with her banking guys). Dealing with them was like dealing with the Government office. Compared to BoA banking, all the complaints I hear about Schwab and other brokerages seem pedestrian.
    If anyone here has a self directed BMO brokerage account, please share your experience.
    (My family has a small relationship on the banking side (walking distance to my home) and the BMO branch people are always very customer focused and the manager sits in the open for people to go talk to.)
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    I'm not worried about the fund investing in SPACS at all if that is where DS finds value. I've held SPC for over 2 years in my conservative withdrawal bucket and have found it to be a low volatility, steady eddy, positive trending ETF (5% 1Y return as of 7/31). If Mr. Sherman can find value in using SPACs to enhance return in CBLDX, I'm all for it. I might, though, sell my slug of SPC and add that money to my existing CBLDX position and let David decide on the fund's positions and use of SPACs.
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    FWIW His " Pre Merger Spac " ETF SPC has been a somewhat low yielding ( 4% last year) steady eddy for over three years now. They aim to buy SPACs that have lots of cash before a merger and if there is no merger before the timeline the cash has to returned
    I would have thought most SPACS would have been merged or closed by now but guess not
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    This section is also new:
    ...will construct a portfolio for the Fund that the Adviser believes has the potential to generate a high level of current income, while maintaining a fixed income portfolio duration of 2.0 or less.
    Here is the old section:
    The Fund typically focuses on instruments that have short durations (i.e., have
    an expected duration of three years or less from the time of purchase through maturity, call, or corporate action).
    https://info.crossingbridgefunds.com/hubfs/Regulatory/CrossingBridge_Prospectus.pdf?v=1723830514184
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    Those were ultra-SY bond funds around GFC and the category then had lots of ST-HY. Schwab, Fido and others had them. This Category was killed by the GFC.
    A new category reemerged a few years later as ultra-ST with inv-grade bonds only. So, the ultra-ST bond funds of today aren't comparable to those around the GFC.
  • thinking about correlations within my non-retirement portfolio
    During 2022, the correlation between stocks and bonds approached 1.0 when the FED raised rate. Other time period, the correlation was much smaller. Having said that, one has to look at longer periods, 5 years or more to smooth out the year of 2022.
    Another parameter worth to look at is recovery period under MFO Premium. For allocation funds with flexible or tactical mandates, recovery period reveals how the funds perform through the drawdowns.
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    HOSIX is only 2+ year old. So, it has none of the baggage of HOBIX and much of M* data is NA. It's also mostly structured credit and its average credit quality of BB is lower than that for HOBIX (BBB).
    TestFol data with 12-mo rolling periods looks OK. HOSIX-12
    The boutique firm Holbrook has only 2 funds - HOBIX (8+ years old) and HOSIX (2+ years old).
    https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/holbrook-holdings-BN00000J2X/funds
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    @hank Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
    Yup. I depend on stats from Stock Rover a lot, as well as checking Morningstar. Seems to me the Stock Rover site offers more, and more conveniently. At your fingertips. Fair Value at S.R. is distinguished from 12-month Target Price. Good to keep in mind. Still, Mr. Market has been known to be unpredictable. I also like to check out the Barron's webpage to investigate specific items, ratings, P/E and P/B and P/S. Short volume, Short percent of float. (Don't like a lotta Shorts in my soup.)
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    I learned the hard way that those “fair value” ratings are worthless.
    Bought 2 very depressed small-cap stocks more or less on intuition + personal knowledge of the companies June 26. (Posted in the B/S thread.) I later checked the ratings at M*, WSJ and Barron’s. All 3 said the stocks were already above fair value when I bought them and that neither warranted higher than an a 3 out of 5 as investment prospects.
    A week or two later the Russell blasted off, carrying those 2 holdings along for the ride. I sold in only 10 days time after both had jumped about 8-10% because I trusted those 3 publications over my own instincts. Had I hung on they would have jumped at least another 10% by now. Likely even more.
    Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio?
    I would never buy an OEF (traditional mutual fund) that I didn’t consider a long-term hold (“buy and forget” to use @BaluBalu’s words).
    Luthold as a money manager has a great long term record. I believe they were primarily engaged in research / analysis for various big players (and well respected) before launching their own mutual funds. But nothing is guaranteed. The manager turnover is the main reason M* recently downgraded its rating of LCORX to silver from gold. Interestingly, LCOR retains their gold rating.
    To tread a bit further out onto the thin ice … The fund replaces DODBX in my 10-segment (equal weight) portfolio. I believe DODBX to be a better moderate risk long term hold. They’ve refined their process in recent years to reduce the potential for losses in bear markets and their fees are much more compelling. Not to argue the merits of each. Just perhaps to address BaluBalu’s question of where it might fit in a portfolio.
    Why did I get out of DODBX after a couple decades? I decided about a year ago to consolidate all holdings at Fidelity. While DODBX transferred in OK, it became awkward, to say the least, to rebalance it or increase its weighting without getting hit with a fee. Wasn’t worth the aggravation for me.
    I believe funds to an extent are captive to the economic environment of the day. No manager can prepare for every eventuality. While I loath the P-word infiltrating the investment part of the board, I think in about 84 days the economic / financial / social / political backdrop that now seems normal will transition to a much riskier more difficult environment.
    My last comment in this thread. Got a couple bucks riding on tonight’s Dodgers / Brewers game. :)
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @Hank
    I was using VBIAX as an example of a passive 60/40 because it can be bought vs. an abstract index. I have a brokerage account at Vanguard but with no holdings because I abandoned Vanguard many years back. VBIAX is available at Fidelity (for a fee, not NTF). Fidelity equivalents of VBIAX appear to be FBALX, FPURX.
    I don't do the fundamental and strategy analysis you do because I don't feel qualified to do so. I rely heavily on Sortino and R-Squared metrics and tilt towards investments with high Sortino and low R-Squared.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Balu, search "Do you need something Permanent in your portfolio?" on the main site. We've mentioned PRPFX about two dozen times over the years but it's never been on my to-do for a profile.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Continuing from my previous post,
    In looking at a go anywhere fund, does it make sense to look at its innards at any particular time?
    From a quick review, PRFPX @JD_co mentioned in the BSW thread seems to have done better over the past five years, its long term track record notwithstanding. PRPFX stock style in M* changed over the years. Someone with an intimate knowledge of these funds could probably provide a better / scientific comparison. M* does not say PRPFX is a tactical allocation fund and as such i am not sure it is a good comparison.
    Is a MFO profile for PRPFX available?
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Hi, ship!
    Yep. Steve Leuthold (1937-2023) headed off to his cabin in Maine then, as Alzheimer's took its toll, to Carlsbad, California, to be with family. We've written a bit about the changes that followed. My general sense is that the team thought Steve's approach was getting a bit ahead of the data in his latter years, which is a problem for a group of quant investors. In his absence, they recalibrated a bit but maintained the core discipline that they'd been following since the 1990s.
    For what that's worth, David
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Hi @hank
    I subscribe to a newsletter that publishes a “recommended portfolio” consisting of 10 index funds
    ..... T Rowe Price (like TRRIX) typically invest in 15-25 other funds. What do you know that these managers don’t?
    The only thing we know that the 'managers' don't, is what we want to hold in our portfolio at this time.
    The TRRIX example that was noted has 27 other funds of funds. Way too many.
    As to 10 index funds, the same would apply at this time.
    If we had an advisor present such choices; the first input from us would be the 'elimination list'.
    ---NO International equity or bonds for either developed or emerging markets. NO value funds. NO hedged. NO high yield bonds. NO mid or small cap. NO metals.
    We're a Medicare/SS/pension(s) household, and while we enjoy having decent annual returns; we also have capital preservation in mind.
    Most of us spend $1,000's each and every year for house and auto insurance, and never file a claim; and the money is gone forever.
    We treat our bond fund holdings/MMKT's as 'investment insurance' currently using BAGIX (active managed). We'll not likely outrun inflation and taxes, but maintain the capital.
    The AGG bond etf is similar in high quality to BAGIX (ER = .30).
    I've watched over the years and charted these two against bond 'index' funds. BAGIX has maintained near 1% annualized above the returns of the other two (etf and index). AGG and bond index funds run very close paths. I'm not trying to sell, but to offer the view.
    Our portfolio is 40/60.
    ---The 40 in equity is split between growth (17%) and conservative equity (23%)(healthcare).
    ---The 60 is I.G. bond fund (33%) and MMKT (67% @5% yield).
    Technically, we have 7 holdings; if one counts the MMKT.
    NOTE: We've remained fully U.S. centered with investments since 2008. We have more than enough foreign exposure inside the equities, from their foreign earnings and/or some foreign holdings.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Today's note: "the 21-day correlation between Large Growth and Large Value turned negative for just the fifth time in 33 years. Two previous signals coincided with major rotations into the Value style.""
    If two out of five instances produced a specific result, is that a large enough probability to count as a signal?
    Looking at the past five years' stock style in M* portfolio, it looks like the fund had been in large blend category in each of those years.
    It would be great if some one can compare LCORX against a (or a group of) good value fund(s) for the entire year 2022.
    Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio. I shall read the fund profile @hank posted the link to.
    I echo the last two paras in @staycalm last post.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY)
    GMO, despite having a media relations firm, has been utterly uncommunicative for years.
    In any case, I have reached out on your behalf with a question about a potential international ETF (or anything else under consideration). Steve, the MR guy, has promised to reach out to GMO. I'll share what I hear, perhaps in the form of a recording of crickets. (sigh)
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    The folks at Leuthold shared a recent email titled "We did WHAT?" which reports that they shorted the NASDAQ in July. They wrote:
    While our tactical portfolios almost exclusively hedge equities using our proprietary short-selling strategy, last month we upped the hedge by shorting the NASDAQ 100 via the QQQ ETF. One of the driving factors is that July’s broadening action was much more of a NYSE phenomenon than a NASDAQ one—the latter market still looks highly bifurcated and triggered a “maximum-negative” reading on the HLLI in early August.
    Partly in consequence, they posted top 6% returns in July (up 3.7%) and top 21% returns over the past four weeks (-0.3%). I know they're a bit tame, perhaps a bit wonky in a small Minnesota shop way, for some investors but they have top tier performance over the trailing 1-, 3- 5-, 10- and 15-year periods with relative returns ranging from top 12% (3-year) to top 31% (15 year) against their Morningstar peers. They've comfortably outperformed their Lipper peers since inception (1995) on both upside and downside measures.
    Happily, for the budget conscious, the LCR ETF seems to be outperforming LCORX by (eyeballing here) about the different in their expense ratios.
    Today's note: "the 21-day correlation between Large Growth and Large Value turned negative for just the fifth time in 33 years. Two previous signals coincided with major rotations into the Value style."
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    I also lived through 2000-2002 bear market and at that time I was single, 37-39 years old and was investing entirely with Janus...blast from the past!!
    Janus Mercury, Janus Global Technology and at the time the vaunted Janus Worldwide with Helen Young-Hayes. I was 100% equities. I admit soon after 9/11 I just couldn't take it any longer with the market's long correction and sold out of my complete positions into a Janus MM fund for a month or so before reinvesting into the markets. I toned down the risk by going 75/25 equity/fixed income. I believe the equity fund was Janus Core Equity and the bond fund was Janus Flexible Income...again, names of those funds might be off just a bit.
    As stated in my previous post, I didn't sell anything during the GFC with the difference being the experience I had living through 2000-2002 and the eventual rebound and also having a respected friend who encouraged me to stay the course during the GFC as he was doing.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Paulson! yes @ BaluBalu, that is who I was referring to earlier.
    And. @hank, no, nada, I sure wasn't advocating for all in all out etc...I was trying to point out that it is now easy to look back and say one should/could've(?) started averaging in..but at the time it wasn't easy at all...so with the knowledge of hindsight, it sure is easy to say now that should have went all in....
    My drawdown was -3.7% (truth!) during the 08' flush (hey FD1000, how do you like that?)...as I got somewhat toasted during 2001 flush, I had good muscle memory recall....and also when I went to an open house at a new condo development in San Diego....I told the nice gal sales rep that the price points were kooky insane....she asked where I was from...and said that explains it..."you don't get it"...I said no ma'am, YOU don't get it...a year from now you will be on your knees begging me to pay 40% less than these prices...I was right....and now 15 years later, would say she was also...LOL! Then I also had a Washington Mutual open up by me with higher than market CD rates...the gal there was wanting me to sign a 5-year CD...I said, nah, I'm walking you guys are making home loans to folks who couldn't afford a storage shed...I don't want anything to do with ya'll and as a matter of fact I am going to short the piss out of your stock...made a nice bundle on that trade.
    The more I read on this thread and think back 30 years+...the more I think a moderate-conservative multi-asset, balanced approach with some flexing around the edges is the way to go....sure would have more monies now and have had less stress, worries etc...