Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • International Version of PRWCX
    I'm fairly certain the difference between a 13.01% annualized return and a 11.50% one over ten years is more than 14.4% cumulatively, more like 40 percentage points if this is correct: https://investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator I think it is the difference between a 239% cumulative return and a 197% cumulative one from the base investment, although I'm tired and my math could be off.
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    “As a general comment on the whole tracking/privacy/advertising issue, we have never joined any "social" organization such as Meta (nee "Facebook") which on the face of it has absolutely no reason for existence other than to abuse user privacy for financial profit. Immense profit, at that.”
    I second that! I get my news from the few surviving professional journalistic organizations. And I don’t mean cable or the “Happy Talk” & “Weird Weather” (somewhere) that has become the network news (but does not “become” it!)
    Although I DO use FB, I'm with ya, all the way. The ID and security business can sometimes turn absurd. I wanted to use my fb account while on vacation in Canada.
    ...Some BOT (presumably) figured out that it could not really be ME, in a different country..... I created a 2nd, alternative account. Then some stinky-ass BOT discovered the same person, ostensibly, with two accounts, at the same address. I was locked out of both.
    So, I created a FB account with a totally silly name I created out of thin air. With a false hometown and address, and for email, I offered my "junk" email account, which I never look at, unless some outfit insists on being provided with an email address. (I also have a spam phone number that I saved and use, when I'm able to do so, too. It's some fake, unethical scumbags from India, claiming to be Microsoft Repair. So, I let them deal with each other.)
    News these days? Paywall in front of the major newspapers, or you must allow the ads. Nope. Just... Nope. So, it's PBS and Aljazeera for me, currently. I do grow tired of Judy Woodruff, who likes to EMOTE so very much. The questions of interviewees are most often of the softball variety. Al Jazeera covers more of the world, too.
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    “As a general comment on the whole tracking/privacy/advertising issue, we have never joined any "social" organization such as Meta (nee "Facebook") which on the face of it has absolutely no reason for existence other than to abuse user privacy for financial profit. Immense profit, at that.”
    I second that! I get my news from the few surviving professional journalistic organizations. And I don’t mean cable or the “Happy Talk” & “Weird Weather” (somewhere) that has become the network news (but does not “become” it!)
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    @Derf- I don't understand your suggestion of a connection between Apple, Amazon, and Google. While we don't use a smartphone or Kindle, we do use Apple desktops exclusively, Firefox browsers, and do purchase from Amazon very frequently.
    On those platforms we've had no problems of any kind. As a matter of principle for at least fifteen years I've done everything possible to avoid use of any service offered by Google, as it was evident to me many years ago where this whole tracking/privacy/advertising thing was headed.
    With respect to Amazon, certainly there's a great deal of search operation within Amazon itself when you're looking for various products. I have no idea if Amazon does all of that itself, or possibly uses Google or some other search provider to help power it's internal searches. In any case, I've never experienced any suggestion of a connection to me as an Amazon customer and Google.
    As a general comment on the whole tracking/privacy/advertising issue, we have never joined any "social" organization such as Meta (nee "Facebook") which on the face of it has absolutely no reason for existence other than to abuse user privacy for financial profit. Immense profit, at that.
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    Unclear question. I’ll try to answer. In a nutshell Apple (to their credit) recently made it much harder for websites & apps to plant “cookies” on your Apple device that allowed them to track all your internet usage. They than sold the personal data collected to advertisers who could thereby target you for advertising. For example, if they knew you visited this board a lot, an advertiser might target you with ads for the WSJ or other financial publication. Just a guess, but the “special” subscription rates offered to you might be higher than those offered others who didn’t often visit financial sites.
    Now the bottom line … With these user protections in place Facebook and many other internet domains stand to gather less user information and therefore have less of your personal information to sell advertisers. Facebook takes a financial hit. IMHO you gain.
    PS - I use many Apple devices and have a Kindle and buy things at Amazon. I’ve experienced no difficulty with any of these.
  • The Perfect Investor

    What are the most important attitudes and habits of successful investors? In this podcast, Paul examines this question through the lens of “hard work,” or what is often called “grit.” He references a special 6-minute TED talk by Angela Lee Duckworth, a psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvania. The video is about the importance of “grit” in your life. While the hard work and the passion of grit may make people more successful in their daily life, Paul makes the case that it may lead to worse outcomes as an investor. In fact, the grit for an investor is to remain still and let your investments take care of themselves.
    Since the grit is largely a matter of habits and attitude, Paul reads chapter 11 from Financial Fitness Forever. He discusses the importance of trust, resilience, perspective, patience and common sense, plus six productive habits that seem to favor investors over the long term.
    paulmerriman-the-perfect-investor
  • Federal Open Mouth Committee
    Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic told The Financial Times over weekend that the Fed may impose a 50 basis point rate hike in March.
    Saw that too in other sites and that could have sizable impact on the long bonds. Mid March is timeframe when it starts.
  • Federal Open Mouth Committee
    Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic told The Financial Times over weekend that the Fed may impose a 50 basis point rate hike in March. Bostic is a FOMC participant and would have been covered by the aforementioned blackout.
    (Excerpt) The Federal Reserve could opt to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points if a more aggressive approach to taming inflation is needed, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, told the Financial Times in an interview. Bostic stuck to his prediction that three quarter-point increases starting in March would be the most likely scenario, though stubbornly high consumer prices could justify a more robust rate rise …
    “Every option is on the table for every meeting,” Bostic said on Friday. “If the data say that things have evolved in a way that a 50-basis-point move is required or be appropriate, then I’m going to lean into that . . . If moving in successive meetings makes sense, I’ll be comfortable with that,” he told the newspaper.
    Story from Bloomberg
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Vanguard and FIDO were ready mid-January
    some brokerage houses invest in mighty computer resources to crunch their numbers
    Surely you're not suggesting that Vanguard mightily invests in computer resources :-)
    Chairman Tim Buckley said Vanguard was spending more than $1B on technology in 2019.
    Yet, customers continue to report sporadic technical issues on a regular basis.
    It appears that Vanguard may not be earning good returns on its technology investments!
    Here's Vanguard's technology spin presented in a recent article:
    “Vanguard has accelerated efforts and increased investments to improve our technology and deliver an even better experience for our retail clients, plan sponsors and participants, and financial advisors. We’re actively exploring and implementing new technologies, resources and capabilities to drive innovation, improve stability and resiliency, build efficiencies and lower operation costs across our firm.”
    Yeah, right...
    Link
  • More RED this morning #2
    DKNG (which I bought a week ago) +17% this morning. Who said stocks are volatile?
    Will probably close down by end of day.
    The only financial advice you can bank on 100% of the time to be totally accurate is: "markets will fluctuate, sometimes wildly, but most times rather tamely." :)
  • The Powell Put Revisited....
    Stock market weakness since the start of 2022 has made me wonder what might cause the Fed to alter its anticipated course of action for the coming months. Perhaps -- in large measure due to the cumulative effect of actions taken by the Fed and Congress since the start of 2019 -- conditions have evolved to the extent that inflation finally has the upper hand. If so, this article suggests the Fed's present course of action will continue for an extended period of time even in the presence of a continued stock market drop.
    “The policy path of least regret is, for the first time in a generation, to deal with higher inflation and inflation expectations now and worry about the consequences for growth and financial market stability later,” said Athey. “This is a world that most investors have never experienced.”
    Stocks Trading on Fumes Probably Aren’t Keeping the Fed Awake
  • How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction?
    Jason Zweig, WSJ:
    "I don't know whether we're on the cusp of a cataclysmic decline, or whether this is one of the market's normal see-saw rides.
    What I am sure of is that after two years of being cooped up at home with nothing to do but stare at market charts, a lot of my colleagues in the financial media are bored stiff.
    So reporters and editors will seize every opportunity to turn market molehills into mountains, and to extrapolate every drop into a correction or bear market.
    As the markets buck and heave over the next few days, I would advise you to keep in mind one of Benjamin Graham's most important messages from his book The Intelligent Investor:
    Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal."
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    Rising bond yields, particularly on inflation-protected Treasurys, are viewed as close indicators of borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
    Investors pay close attention to yields on TIPS because they offer an important gauge of financial conditions, indicating whether borrowing costs for businesses and consumers are rising or falling when stripping out the effects of expected inflation.
    “Often referred to as real yields, yields on TIPS have been deeply negative since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, helping to fuel outsize stock-market gains by pushing investors into riskier assets in search of better returns. Even today they remain below zero, meaning holders are guaranteed to lose money on an inflation-adjusted basis if they hold the bonds to maturity. Yet they have climbed even more this year than yields on ordinary Treasurys—a sign of higher borrowing costs for businesses, better forward-looking returns on bonds, and a return to more normal growth and inflation as the Federal Reserve starts tightening monetary policy …”

    Also (Same Article):
    “Donald Ellenberger, a senior fixed-income portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, is among those responsible for surging real yields. Starting in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, he was a major buyer of TIPS, steadily increasing them from 4% of his multisector bond portfolio in March 2020 to 7% by November of that year. Mr. Ellenberger’s concern at the time was that historic fiscal and monetary stimulus would lead to a surge in inflation—a fear that proved prescient as TIPS rallied and the consumer-price index soared… By the end of last year, though, the Fed had shifted course, promising to accelerate a wind-down of its bond-buying program and start raising interest rates … In response, Mr. Ellenberger and his team slashed their TIPS holdings from 7% to 1%.”
    (Excerpts from)
    “Tech Rout Fueled by Bond-Market Turn”
    By Sam Goldfarb
    The Wall Street Journal
    January 24, 2022
    In a separate article, the same issue of the WSJ noted that municipal bonds are also seeing outsized losses of late.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    I've had an Ally Online Savings Account since late 2013.
    This account currently offers an APR of 0.50%.
    There are no monthly maintenance fees or minimum balance requirements.
    Since opening the Ally account, I've opened several savings/checking accounts at other financial institutions to take advantage of appealing rates. These accounts were subsequently closed after prevailing rates became uncompetitive. Rate comparison shopping coupled with opening/closing accounts became tiresome so I haven't pursued this in several years. The Ally Online Savings Account is primarily used for savings and as a "hub" for electronic fund transfers to/from my other financial institutions. I'm a satisfied Ally customer since they have a good website, offer a reasonable APR (for current conditions), and I haven't encountered any EFT issues.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    The stock market is adjusting to the reality that interest rates are probably heading up for at least a while. It's too early for me to have a clear sense as to how far and for how long. As to one of the questions at the start of this thread:
    For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
    My last significant portfolio changes occurred in 2020 when high yield and utility stock sleeves were added to the portfolio (they now constitute about 40% of portfolio). The high yield sleeve purchases mostly focused on real estate, financial, and energy sector stocks that appeared to be on sale as well as on a few CEF purchases. Also, I used proceeds from the sale of ZEOIX to buy some utility stocks that appeared to be reasonably priced. That active trading year was followed by some 2021 portfolio cleanup trades as well as a little "special situations" trading (that produced mixed results). My basic goal for 2022 is to refocus on being a buy and hold investor. VIX above 35 for a while with a fair amount of panic and exhaustion would get me thinking about making some changes again. A possibility list for trades is being maintained but I would want to see what looks interesting at the time I become motivated. That type of market probably produces the Zweig momentum buy signal Junkster mentioned. But I don't know where to find that one.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    Sources?
    DepositAccounts reports:
    Ally Bank - 769 customer reviews, 3½ stars
    Discover Bank - 231 reviews; 3½ stars
    Marcus - 198 reviews; 2½ stars
    If we're talking about personal experience, I've been a customer since before Goldman Sachs renamed it Marcus Bank (Dec 2017), before Goldman Sachs acquired the former GE Capital Bank (April 2016). I got tired of chasing bank rates and settled on a bank with moderately high rates that didn't bounce all over the place.
    Maybe if you're dealing with the bank for a loan, or need help wiring money, quality service isn't there. I don't know; I just use it to ACH money back and forth. Never had an issue. If you want cash management services (checking, ATM) it's not the bank for you.
    Money starts earning interest the day you initiate an inbound transfer, so I don't care whether that ACH takes one day or three. Unlike some online banks, one can link two ways, so that pulls or pushes work from either side.
    I've used Ally Bank, and I still use it for liquid CDs (Ally gives a 0.05% bonus for CD renewals). Though they were more useful in the past to lock in rates when they were falling. Now with rising rates, not so much. Limited to six withdrawals per period.
    Discover Bank pays the same 0.50% as the other banks, though that's new. Like Ally, still limited to six withdrawals per period.
    That's according to the mouse-over for the "excessive withdrawal fee" on this page. OTOH, one of its FAQ answers reads: " We are currently not enforcing the monthly transaction limit on savings and money market accounts." So the bank doesn't allow you more than six withdrawals but it won't stop you?
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I had experience with OppenheimerFunds in 2008. It was IL 529 manager at that time. It stuffed lot of HY in the core bonds and allocation/balanced funds. This was stupidity if not fraud. That all turned ugly during the financial crisis. There was eventually a settlement with IL 529 but only some funds were restored. OppenheimerFunds was not fired immediately but was reigned in by being forced to include several non-OppenheimerFunds funds. Eventually, its contract wasn't renewed. IL 529 has bounced well under the new manager UBT and is now rated Gold by M*, only 1 of 3 such 529s.
  • GMO: Let the Wild Rumpus Begin - Superbubble
    I do not mind somebody being wrong as long as they had the courage of conviction. We already discussed in an earlier thread how he had not invested in line with his previous projections / pronouncements. I can look else where for entertainment than read / listen him. Gimmickry works best in Finance because the audience is always caught between greed and fear. Financial fraud has never evolved because it does not have to. The tricks in Finance are as old as money.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    You may be able to transfer PRWCX in kind and continue to invest in the fund. Generally even closed funds can be transferred from one institution to another. Though there are rare exceptions that are usually stated explicitly in the fund's prospectus.
    The fund is "soft closed". So you should be able to add to your account, wherever that winds up.
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/capacity-constrained-funds.html
    I was also having 40 minute waits on the phone with TRP, so while I am sorry about the experience you had, it's not surprising.
    Here's Fidelity's compensation disclosure:
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf
    I would not hesitate to recommend either Fidelity or Schwab in terms of customer service.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    Howdy folks,
    @hank you may be correct about the precious metals. I'm copying from Liberty Coin Service's Patrick Heller's FB page with YTD returns.
    Patrick Heller "Current financial markets are getting interesting. Here are how prices have changed from the close on December 31, 2021 through today, January 20, 2022:
    Platinum: +8.9%
    Palladium: +8.5%
    Silver: +5.9%
    Gold: +0.8%
    US Dollar Index: -0.2%
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.5%
    Standard & Poors 500 Index: -5.9%
    Bitcoin: -9.0%
    NASDAQ: -9.5%
    Russell 2000: -10.0%
    As you can see, the prices of platinum, palladium, and silver have outperformed gold thus far in 2022. Gold has outperformed all the other assets listed through the first 20 days of this year.
    By the way, the US Treasury 10 Year Note interest rate has jumped from 1.52% to 1.83%, an increase of 20.4%!"
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono