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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    @BaluBalu
    SCV AUERX has been on our watch list for about a year. Probably shoulda bought it back then. The ER has always been a bit of a turnoff for us but the performance, like you said, has been very good for the past 5 years.
    Considering it and a few others, including some SCG funds yogi listed in this week's Barron's summary.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-broadcom-meta-stocks-to-buy-roundtable-68451d5e?mod=djem_b_magazine_20240713
    HISGX/HASGX
    CTSAX/CTSIX
    JSJAX/JSJIX
    CWSAX/CWSGX
    HRSRX/HRSMX
    We have not reviewed any of these and have no comment on any of them yet.
    Having however very recently jettisoned SCG NEAGX to reduce Tech exposure and risk, not sure we want to venture too deep back into SCs...yet. Will be looking for one with low Tech exposure. Note that AUERX has only 7.8% in Tech.
    Also considering a broader stroke approach via equal weighted index funds RSP/VADAX, or simply doing nothing!
    Let's see what next week holds RE: what CNBC this week dubbed, the (sic) "Great Rotation"!
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (07/12/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 Topics
    01:11 Down Goes Inflation
    08:23 Here Come the Rate Cuts
    16:50 The Rotation Heard Round the World
    22:58 An All-Time High a Day
    24:50 Last 10 Years: Fundamental Gains vs. Share Price Gains
    27:25 Costco's Highest Valuation Ever
    29:45 Nike's Biggest Drawdown Since 2000
    31:29 The Most Important Chart in an Economy
    Video
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    @stillers,
    Interesting fund - AUERX. 16 years and only $61M AUM. The fund has done well over the past five years, though it had a forgettable performance before that.
    I am tempted to take a flyer on this with a 2.07% ER by selling another fund with half as much ER.
    Let us know if you buy AUERX or any other funds.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    @Old_Joe,
    I do not need any stats to know if Schwab is milking their customers more than their competitors. Personal experience is more than sufficient. Milking can be in the form of money and / or other frictions, and their brokerage sweep feature and mandatory cash holding in Robo accounts speak for itself.
    I am not one to quarrel with the weather. I had given many suggestions to Schwab to improve, including written suggestions. I have then decided to adapt and use them for what they are tolerable and use Fido for everything else.
    Incidentally, I opened both Schwab and Fido accounts the same day 20 years ago. My Fido assets were about 10 times larger than my Schwab assets before TD accounts were transferred to Schwab. Fido never offered me any freebies or asset transfer bonuses. I use all investment vehicles, except interval funds. I do not use advisory services.
    I have had my head taken out for being ahead of others in sharing negative info about brokerages and other financial institutions. It seems I offend forum members in my sharing. So, I will stop.
    On a separate note, I, as a customer, once had a very poor experience with United Health - prior to ACA. I thought they were A holes and switched to other carriers. What I failed to consider was to look into their business financials and buy UNH stock. If they can try to screw me so blatantly, may be they have some sort of moat. Given that experience, I should look into if Schwab has a moat that allows them to provide poor customer experience and then buy Schwab stock.
  • Variable Annuity(s) as sold by insurance sales folks. Real time knowledge of fees,recurring fees.
    The TIAA VAs that yogi is writing about are the CREF annuities. TIAA invented variable annuities for the predecessor of 403(b) plans back in 1952. These qualified annuities are different from the non-qualified annuities that Catch is asking about.
    Non-qualified annuities are funded with after tax dollars. From an IRS perspective they are similar to non-deductible T-IRAs. Like IRAs, they have a penalty if you take withdrawals before age 59½. One difference is that unless you annuitize, the non-deductible dollars are the last ones out, unlike non-deductible T-IRAs, where withdrawals are prorated between pre- and post-tax dollars.
    If one disregards typically expensive optional bells and whistles (enhanced death benefits, GLWBs, etc.), VAs can be used as non-deductible T-IRAs after maxing out one's IRA contributions. Unlike T-IRAs, they do not have RMDs at age 73 or so; however they do require one to withdraw money or annuitize at an age specified in the contract (usually somewhere between 85 and 90 or 95).
    VAs all carry a variety of charges. Each contract sets its own rates, just as each mutual fund sets its own fees. Morgan Stanley (see link below) does a good job of giving industry ranges. Read the paper if you care to know what these fees are for:
    Mortality and Expense Risk (M&E): 0.20% - 1.80%
    Administrative and Distribution Fees: 0.00% - 0.60%
    Annual Fee: $30 - $50, waived with high enough balance (typically $50K)
    Contingent Deferred Sales Chage (CDSC) - think "class B shares" - 0% to 9% declining
    https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/msdotcom/en/assets/pdfs/wealth-management-disclosures/understandingvariableannuities.pdf
    As you can see from these ranges, there are some VAs with low "wrapper" fees (the first three charges), and that don't charge a fee to get out (no CDSC). The Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuity mentioned by catch (0.25% wrapper fees) is one such annuity. Until 2019 Vanguard had its own VA. At the time I believe its wrapper fee was 0.30%. There are others.
    Of note, especially since yogi mentioned TIAA, is TIAA Intelligent Variable Annuity. Its fees depend on the size of the annuity, ranging from 0.50% (plus $25 if under $25K) to 0.35% (at $100K) and 0.25% (at $500K). The kicker is that after ten years, the wrapper fee drops to 0.10% regardless of balance. See prospectus.
    Schwab sells a low cost VA (Genesis Life from Protective Life) with a 0.45% wrapper fee. There are a few others (I recall Pacific Life being one); search for no-load variable annuities.
    As with 401(k)s, one also needs to consider the costs of the underlying portfolios. Like mutual funds, these come in multiple share classes. So it's not enough to simply look at the VA portfolio fund, but its share class. For example, both Fidelity and TIAA sell Pimco VIT Commodity Real Return Strategy. But Fidelity sells the Administrative class shares (see the prospectus it links to) with 1.48% ER after waivers, while TIAA sells the institutional class shares with an ER of 1.33% (see its fund prospectus).
    Last and probably least :-) are a couple of comments about M*'s coverage of VAs. When comparing star ratings (if you can find them) M* has two different sets of ratings. One is for the fund itself (could vary by share class), the other is for the fund within the VA, i.e. including the wrapper fees. Most funds will tend to get high star ratings in the low cost VAs simply because they cost about 3/4% less than in "average" VAs. All those 4 and 5 star ratings are relatively meaningless if what you're interested in is the risk-adjusted performance of the underlying funds.
    Second is that one can still eke out some VA info from M*. One has to search for a hidden "ticker" symbol of the fund of interest. That ain't easy. For example, here's the google search I did for dfa VA international value portfolio. It turned up a FT page with a ticker-like value of 0P00003CY8. In M*'s portfolio manager, create a portfolio with this as the sole holding, you'll be able to get a little info, including its YTD gain of 9.48%. And if you have premium membership, you'll be able to x-ray that portfolio to find that it is 98% foreign, with 54% in LCV.
    If you add "pdf" to the search string, you might even turn up a 2 page M* report on the portfolio, such as this one at Pacific Life. (Just check the date to make sure you found a current report.)
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
    "Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.

    ============================
    Not many words there but "a LOT to unpack" as they say!
    Agree with the "wildest days" notion. The divergent data was certainly compelling and a sight to behold.
    But "a complete reversal of all of the major secular trends"?
    C'mon man!

    After the dust settled, NASDAQ was still UP 22% YTD and the RUT was pushing 5% YTD thanks to 3+% yesterday.
    The key word there IMO is "Today." Meaning, it was ONE, count 'em, ONE freaking day!
    I made some comments on another current MFO thread yesterday about what the analysts I listened to were saying about the landmark day (?) as it was unfolding.
    Consensus takes?
    Let's wait and see. At least (sic) until the end of the week (as in ONE more day later)!
    Will investors continue to move money from LCG to Value and SCs?
    The move may last for a month or two but are SCs and Value up to the task of being the new market leaders?
    Is anyone seeing any significant follow through today? Anyone? Yes, the RUT is leading the major indexes, but only fractionally. NASDAQ sure ain't looking like a dead horse to me.
    Earnings start today - lots of wood to chop this month still!.
    In retrospect a month or two from now, I'll suggest some investors who have been/are underweight LCG, Tech, AI and/or Mag7 will regret NOT using yesterday as a BUYing opportunity. To wit, had you bought NVDA at the close yesterday, you'd already be UP 2.5%!
    One take. Could be dead wrong.
    But it's my WAG!
    YMMV.
  • Variable Annuity(s) as sold by insurance sales folks. Real time knowledge of fees,recurring fees.
    I'm aware of some charges/fees that may exist with VA's (all annuities), such as early withdrawal charges prior to 7 or 10 years. I'm also aware that there may be add on fees for other annuity options.
    I peeked around (Investopedia and other sites) and only find a nominal range of all fees.
    The main question being, is what ongoing annual fee costs should one expect when having a VA with "ACME' insurance company? How much is the sales person/insurance company going to charge (as a percentage) each and every year? Also, that the investment fund choices may have above normal ER's.
    I'm asking for two folks in their mid-40's. They both have an educational level and job positions that should allow them to continue to 'max out' their 401k and Roth contributions for as long as they choose. They are considering other tax deferred investments.
    I have knowledge of Fidelity's FPRA variable annuity for a comparison, and the aspect that this is a D.I.Y. method.
    If you're curious, these are the FIDO VA investment choices.
    Thank you for your input.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Good ol' Fairholme
    I haven't checked performance of Royce funds recently. A while back (and I held on for a while), I invested in Royce small cap value. It was lights out when Whitney George was running the show (he was the show for several Royce funds of course). But I (guess) he was an inflationistas after QE started and it hurt performance. Whitney went to Sprott. Royce small cap value suffered for a long time but it is now making a comeback. I guess it has been very tough to be in value or small caps past 10 (?) years and double whammy if you ran a small cap value fund. This thread also reminded me of Ted (RIP, he was a posting machine), Rono, ... Thank you very much to David for continuing the tradition of fund alarm (I think that was the site)
  • Good ol' Fairholme
    Third avenue value is also now silver at Morningstar. I guess Heebner closed his CGM focus fund that was up there in terms of returns and then the bottom fell out. One of these days, I will listen to Bogle, Markiel, Ellis, ... On a different topic, Doubleline total return has stunk up the joint in the past 10 years (fine since inception though); and assets keep going down $30 billions now. I am waiting for day when Gundlach explains his 10 year performance. Bill Gross may be on to something when he questions Gundlach.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    @WABAC You never know when that will happen. I hit my head a few weeks ago & just started driving last Friday.
    Good luck with the kids, Derf :-/
    The main reason I've been boiling down the IRA's.
    What a difference a few years of new experiences can make when you have a less expansive horizon before you.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    KRE +4.21%
    I did even better. First time in 3,900 years. Mr. Market will take it back tomorrow.
    BHB.
  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    @Charles
    Thank you very much for your explanation and detail.
    I would just add this as further explanation for my prior post and questions.
    Maybe to people in the industry, and maybe to avid ETF investors, of which I am neither, "Cathie was the flavor for seven years ... and then 2022 came." You would know that, and I did not.
    But to the proverbial average investor, Katie Wood was not a household name until ARKK's (and other funds of hers) had parabolic gains starting on that infamous date, March 20, 2020, the depths of the COVID sell off.
    Then in Feb 2021, the first leg of per parabolic drop started, and by June 2022, ARKK was back to its March 2020 level.
    She stayed a mainstay on the interview circuit for a while, but the average investor had moved on from her. So for me, and I trust many other average investors, she had a newsworthy shelf life of about three years at most. She's been pretty much out of sight, out of mind for me since sometime in 2022.
    But I do understand now why you posted what you did. Thanks again for the history lesson and insights.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
    "Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.
    The Losers Became Winners...
    Regional Banks $KRE: +4.2%
    US Small Caps $IWM: +3.6%
    REITs $VNQ: +2.9%
    Japanese Yen $FXY: +1.8%
    Long Duration $ZROZ: +1.4%
    Value $IWD: +1.1%
    Emerging Markets $VWO: +0.8%
    Developed International $VEA: +0.4%
    ---
    The Winners Became Losers...
    US Dollar $UUP: -0.5%
    US Large Caps $SPY: -0.9%
    Growth $IWF: -2.1%
    Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2.2%
    Apple $AAPL: -2.3%
    Amazon $AMZN: -2.4%
    Microsoft $MSFT: -2.5%
    Tech $XLK: -2.5%
    Google $GOOGL: -2.9%
    Semiconductors $SOXX: -3.3%
    Netflix $NFLX: -3.7%
    Meta $META: -4.1%
    Nvidia $NVDA: -5.6%
    Tesla $TSLA: -8.4%"
  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    @stillers. Yep. Agree that's where most of the clamor came in 2020/2021. There were lots of 100% Club funds during that time and a few 200% Club funds.
    See David's commentary: "291 funds (and uncounted ETFs) have 12-month returns in excess of 100%."
    But in the years leading up to COVID, Cathie ruled, seriously.

    Return Comparison From ARKK Inception Until COVID
    image

  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    Cathie was the flavor for seven years ... and then 2022 came.
    Huh? Seven years? Until 2022?
    You got me there.
    ARKK's heyday was all of 2020 to very early 2021.
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ARKK?qsearchterm=arkk
    (Set graph to "ALL.")
    After early 2021, she was still regularly in the news but only to try to 'splain why her funds were in disaster mode.
  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    Here's same plot but with absolute scale and since inception ... an awful lot of wealth destruction, if things end today, at least for the those late to the party. Earliest investors have still doubled their money, over 10 years.

    ARKK Flows and Return Data Since Inception (Absolute Scale)
    image

  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    Cathie was the flavor for seven years ... and then 2022 came.
    Amazing to me that returns are down 64%, but outflows only 16%. Pretty loyal fan base! Not sure Berkowitz fared as well.

    ARKK Flows and Return Data Last 3 Years
    image

  • Good ol' Fairholme
    What people are thinking: "Bruce is going to get his old magic back...".
    (I say this as a former long-term holder of FAIRX; who bailed after a couple of years of watching Bruce do a lot of weird stuff)
  • Good ol' Fairholme
    Something made me think of this today. I was on board those many years ago when it was the hottest thing going, the manager the focus of much adulation. Seem to recall I exited with a gain, but one much reduced from the top. Its fall from grace is old news. Hard to believe the following though:
    --The fund still has over $1 billion AUM.
    --Over one-third of those assets belong to the manager.
    --80+% of the fund is invested in a single security.
    --The fund charges 1% per annum for the privilege of ownership. (To a large extent the manager is paying himself.)
    --Over the past 10 and 15 years the fund's returns land in the bottom 1% of its category (according to you-know-who).
    --You-know-who accords the fund its Silver medal. (Huh?!)
    Investing is such a personal endeavor it's difficult to understand what some people are thinking.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Having recently (re)opened a Schwab account, I have a different set of observations vis-a-vis Fidelity. While my first impressions of Schwab below are largely negative, keep in mind (as I do) that using a new site is a learning experience and that I'm inclined to look first for things I know I can do at Fidelity as opposed to looking for new things.
    Changing default fund cost basis from average cost to actual cost (mutual funds):
    - Schwab requires paper form
    - Fidelity allows change online
    Power of attorney form filled in office:
    - Schwab requires me to go to third party for notarization
    - Fidelity will notarize on the spot
    New issue treasuries, expected (indicative) yields
    - Schwab does not provide - Fixed income desk suggested looking at recent trades
    - Fidelity and Vanguard give ballpark figures (actual yields not known until auction)
    Trading mutual funds, fixed income with desktop application:
    - Fidelity Active Trader Pro supports
    - Schwab ThinkOrSwim does not support these trades (per webpage, link below; I haven't downloaded and tested)
    https://www.schwab.com/trading/thinkorswim/compare-platforms
    Fixed income pricing ($1/bond):
    - Schwab has $10 min commission
    - Fidelity has $1 min commission
    Fixed income quotes
    - Schwab quotes prices including markup (it seems), so yields are "true"
    - Fidelity quoted prices are before markups - shown only on trade page - so yields appear higher, but are actually the same
    - Schwab does not show YTW figures for all bonds, effectively forcing sort on YTM
    - Fidelity facilitates sorting on YTW
    - Depth of book presentations are similar (pop up windows)
    - Fidelity opens new tab for trade, leaving bond search window intact
    - Schwab uses existing tab for trade and "back to search" button resets search instead of restoring existing search
    Mutual fund research - sites are comparable, basic stuff and docs; neither offers M* reports. Schwab used to provide M* reports years ago.
    If you're a trader in stocks, Schwab may be superior as OP stated. For my interests (largely OEFs and bonds, some ETFs), so far Schwab isn't impressing. Though that could be due to lack of familiarity.