Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maturing CDs
    Most of us know how FDIC insurance works and troubled banks are resolved but most of us have no understanding of how deposit insurance works at credit union level. Please educate us with examples of how depositors of CUs were protected (or not protected) when CUs got into trouble.
    See excerpt below from a Google Search on Credit Union "Share Certificates";
    A credit union share certificate is a type of savings account that offers a fixed interest rate for a set period of time:
    How it works
    You deposit money into a share certificate for a set term, usually between 3 months and 5 years. In exchange, you earn a higher interest rate, called a dividend, than a regular savings account. The longer the term, the higher the dividend.
    Benefits
    Share certificates are a good option if you want to earn interest on money you plan to use in the future. They can be a safer investment than stocks or mutual funds.
    Risks
    You'll incur penalties if you withdraw money before the term ends.
    Insurance
    Share certificates are federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) for up to $250,000 per depositor, per ownership category, per institution. This is similar to the coverage offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for banks.
    Comparison to certificates of deposit (CDs)
    Share certificates are similar to CDs, but are offered by credit unions instead of banks. The main difference is the name.
  • Maturing CDs
    Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and if it is not called then I am fine with that callable rate for the length of the CD.
    Regarding MMs, I am expecting all categories of MMs to fall below 4% in 2025--I will continue holding MMs but may reduce the amount I will keep in them.

    @dtconroe. a very prudent decision for someone not into risk/drawdown and who is not a trader. Regarding CLOs, what is conveniently not mentioned is like most everything else in Bondland they melted down too during the Covid meltdown. Investment grade CLOs from AAA to BBB had drawdowns from 10% to 30% while below investment grade drawdowns were 40% to 45%. As recently as 2022, while investment grade CLOs eked out a small gain (JAAA) of under 1% below investment grade lost money. The longest tenured bond fund primarily into CLOs ( an interval fund) lost money 4 years since its 2014 inception. In 2020 had a multi week drawdown of 30%. 2023 and 2024 just happened to be “the right place right time” for CLOs. I hold slightly under 50% in CLOs but I am more than cognizant of the risks. A substitute for cash they certainly aren’t.

    Thanks for your comment Junkster. These threads invite a wide array of responses, from posters with a wide array of investing preferences, and a wide array of personal financial circumstances that are the background to their financial decision making. I try to sort through the posted information, to see how much applicability it has to my personal investing criteria. This thread has led to a large variety of posters and posted information. I don't have any interest in CLOs, and I "currently" don't have any interest returning to the bond oef world of trading and momentum based decision making. I don't care for annuities and unique risks/rewards. CDs have been paying a very nice 5+% return for the last year, but that seems to be on the decline. I have never used callable CDs, but they do offer a better interest rate than noncallable CDs, for about 6 months and possibly longer. I am inclined to invest some maturing CD cash into a local Credit Union Share Certificate that pays about a half percent more than I can get at Schwab or my local bank. Different strokes for different folks, and their varied financial strategies and circumstances.
  • Maturing CDs
    Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and if it is not called then I am fine with that callable rate for the length of the CD.
    Regarding MMs, I am expecting all categories of MMs to fall below 4% in 2025--I will continue holding MMs but may reduce the amount I will keep in them.
    @dtconroe. a very prudent decision for someone not into risk/drawdown and who is not a trader. Regarding CLOs, what is conveniently not mentioned is like most everything else in Bondland they melted down too during the Covid meltdown. Investment grade CLOs from AAA to BBB had drawdowns from 10% to 30% while below investment grade drawdowns were 40% to 45%. As recently as 2022, while investment grade CLOs eked out a small gain (JAAA) of under 1% below investment grade lost money. The longest tenured bond fund primarily into CLOs ( an interval fund) lost money 4 years since its 2014 inception. In 2020 it had a multi week drawdown of 30%. As recently as 2022 this CLO fund lost 4.48%. 2023 and 2024 just happened to be “the right place right time” for CLOs. I hold slightly under 50% in CLOs but I am more than cognizant of the risks. A substitute for cash they certainly aren’t.
  • Maturing CDs
    All true, which is why one is usually better off sticking with vanilla annuities. However, page count is a somewhat misleading metric.
    Fixed annuity contracts are self-contained. Unlike mutual fund documentation, they are not broken into multiple parts: summary prospectus (outline), statutory prospectus (broad description of operation), and statement of additional information (legalize and structural info).
    Add all those mutual fund pages together, and you might be at "just" 35 pages (Bruce fund BRUFX statutory prospectus + SAI), at 135 pages (VFIAX - 10 p. summary, 57 p. statutory, 78 p. SAI), or even find a humongous 575 pages (PIMIX - 5 p. summary, 142 p. statutory, 428 p. SAI).
    Read a good bitcoin ETF prospectus lately? Those seem to run around 150 pages, with risk factors alone taking up scores of pages.
    I pulled out an old SPDA contract I had years ago. Plain vanilla. Six pages on how the annuity could be annuitized plus a two page summary up front covering how the amount invested would grow (fixed rate) year by year and how much it would be worth annually including penalty if I closed it early. That's all.
    Many if not most annuity contracts are complicated. But they don't have to be if all you're looking for is a fixed rate investment comparable to a CD. Things get at least a little more complicated if you're looking for an income stream (see, e.g. Social Security). And variable annuities? Now you're going up to potentially scores of pages for each fund offered inside the VA.
  • 30 year treasury
    For more than a year now, I took the other side, which has been one of the best risk/reward performance in bond land. Investing in lower-rated CLOs.
    CLOZ made over 20% in 1.5 years, while TLT lost over 9%.
    https://schrts.co/PcchSZaD
    Currently, CLOZ pays about 8% per year based on its last distribution * 12 months + duration is short (I can't find it).
    TLT pays about 4.8% with duration = 16.5
    Why would I take a high risk/volatility trade based on unknown rates?
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627176-cloz-bbb-bb-clo-etf-strong-10-7-percent-sec-yield-low-interest-rate-risk
    The above isn't a recommendation, just an observation. Never in life have I bought directly a Treasury or a very high-rated bond fund. Too much risk/volatility per unknown rates/duration/correlation.
  • 30 year treasury
    ”A 10 year bond with 5% coupon has a duration under seven years.” - Wow. You learn something every day here.
    BTW - I inputted “intermediate” at M* and pulled up the first fund it found. So, SNIDX wasn’t meant to be a recommendation and it may not be representative of other intermediate term bond funds.
  • 30 year treasury
    Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
    It's easy to mix up duration and maturity. A 10 year bond with 5% coupon has a duration under seven years.
    SNIDX "seeks to maintain an effective duration of three to seven years under normal market conditions." Summary Prospectus
    The difference in yields between 10 year and 30 year bonds is usually not that large. So buying 30 year bonds is tantamount to placing a bet on interest rate movements. As Yogi noted, the impact of any rate change is magnified with the 30 year bond.
    Currently (12/24/2024) the 30 year is yielding just 17 basis points more than the 10 year. Further, a bond maturing in 20 years is paying even more than the 30 year bond. So buying the lower yielding 30 year is not to get a higher yield but solely to get more exposure to interest rate changes.
    Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates - December 2024
  • 30 year treasury
    A 30-yr zero will have a duration of 30 years, 30-yr T-Bonds less due to coupon payments.
    If like to lock in some at current yield (4.76%) without reinvestment risk, look at 30-yr Treasury Zero-Coupon. It may cost about $25 for $100 par in 30 yrs.
  • 30 year treasury
    I'm aware I would need to keep a focused eye in order to avoid a buzz cut!
    For sure. You’d be safer I think laying a wager at DraftKings on something. And wouldn’t need to wait 30 years to find out if you were right or wrong. However, if the current yield looks good to you and you are willing to wait 30 years you will earn the current rate of interest and not lose a penny of principal.
    Maybe buy a magic genie first and ask it what inflation will average between now and 2055? Then at least you’d know if the current payout is worth it. As Yogi suggested, at 30 years duration you’d be whipsawed up and down as rates fluctuated. Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
    I’d agree with Derf that a 30 year bond would make a great trading vehicle for someone trying to game the bond market. But they better know what they’re doing.
  • tax-free u.s. bond market and GOP control for 2-4 years

    would be curious to hear if anyone thinks trump\MAGA\GOP can do any specific short-mid term damage to this sector.
    am aware that broad tax cuts to individuals and corporations make it relatively unappealing.
    could it be somewhat of a haven from chaos ?
    points :
    1. am unaware of any specific trump family member or crony looking to grift in this area.
    2. most of the tax-free market are state+local gov groups with control of their own financing structure, not much reliant on fed trickle-down budgeting other than when initiating a project based on matching funds.
    3. re-writing tax codes to make these groups taxable and compete with corporate bonds seems unlikely and not of interest to any faction.
  • The Most Hated Stocks in the World
    The article started with...."In 20 years of managing money I have never witnessed more dismal sentiment for international stocks, value stocks and really valuations in general."
    So the question remains do you continue to ride large caps (mainly Tech) indefinitely, or do you see a rotation back to other sectors. Large cap Tech ("Magnificent Seven") as market leaders - current trend or new normal?
    Who is still buying value?
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
    https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
    Bitcoin was designed to be a currency that people could use for trustless transactions—transactions that could be carried out without need for a financial intermediary such as a bank. But transactions in which bitcoin is used to buy or sell goods and services make up only a tiny fraction of the currency’s total trading volume, most of which is made up of people buying or selling bitcoin itself.
    ...
    [B]itcoin was designed to facilitate decentralized person-to-person transactions, but most bitcoin trading, at least in the West, now takes place on centralized exchanges. Again, in its liberatory promise, bitcoin was supposed to not just be independent of traditional financial institutions and government, but also enable alternatives to them. Yet the big engine of the price boom of the past two years has been bitcoin’s integration into the conventional investment industry (through such vehicles as exchange-traded funds, or ETFs), increased purchases by institutional investors and corporations, and now the prospect of legitimization by the government itself.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/how-bitcoin-became-boring/681141/
    image
  • The Most Hated Stocks in the World
    The writer repeats what many have said for years without more insight.
    Why high Div stocks are not a good market barometer? The high tech revolution changed it. For decades now tech companies leads the world in innovation and creating wealth. These companies pay no-lower div.
    Quote from the article "Diversification is an admission of ignorance about the future."
    Buffett said it a lot better "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing".
  • Maturing CDs
    I made a lengthy post this morning regarding callable CDs. If anyone is interested in responding to that, I would appreciate it.
    I've had a CD ladder for about 12-13 years. I am 100% against callable CDs. They just don't fit our strategy as callable CDs beg for constant maintenance due to their inherent duration uncertainties.
    I have suggested the following strategy to you a few times over the past year or so but you always seem to reject it. I'll try it one more time:
    Buy 5-yr, CP CDs at the highest rate you can get and be happy.
    Currently you can BUY 5-yr, CP, Fido, Secondary Issue CDs with Effective Yields (after discount) of just under 4.3%.
    Had you followed my suggestion over a year ago, you would now have a 4-5-yr, CP CD ladder making over 5%, you would NOT be dealing with constant maintenance of your fixed income portfolio, and you would very likely have more income over that 5-yr period than the option you chose. (You got maybe 5.5% for one year, but now you're likely to get, on average, under 4% for the next 4 years, while I'm getting over 5% for the entire, same 5-years period)
    You may not of course. You may have a little less.
    BUT, you would have saved all the time and angst that was effectively wasted on fixed income portfolio maintenance. And that time is critical to us for (1) enjoying life and (2) spending it more productively on the portion of our portfolio that really matters, our stock sleeve.
  • Maturing CDs
    DT: FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing CD investors, deciding what those particular investors will do with their maturing CDs, not directed toward investors who will never hold CDs. If you want to "convert" the rest of us CD sinners, you will do it without restraint on this thread.
    I'm not trying to convert or influence anyone. I'm stating generic comments.
    I don't know anyone that invests only in 100% safe CDs and treasuries, and over the years I discussed investments with many people. I also don't like callable CDs and now have to find a new solution.
    This is not a judgement, just an observation.
    I switched to only/mostly bond funds because I could generate more performance than allocation funds with much lower risk.
    To the questions, what would you if...? My approach has been tested in a recession, high inflation, and very quick rising rates, and it went well. Why change it?
    I want to control my portfolio at all times. At anytime I can own MM,CDs, Treasuries if I want, but they have to be the best idea I have in that moment based on market conditions. It already did. From 01/2022 to early 11/2020 I was at 99+% MM, except very short (hours-days) several trades.
    You should do what works for you. Good luck in the future.
    I just don't believe we should stay on a narrow discussion. Annuities brought up, and I believe in low-volatility bond funds that might interest some posters.
  • Maturing CDs
    msf said:
    People may not have noticed that muni MMFs have been soaring of late, especially NY. Schwab's $1M min version, SNYXX, has a 7 day yield of 3.49% (APY 3.56%), its retail version, SWYXX has a 3.34% yield (APY 3.40%), and Fidelity's $25K min version FSNXX is at 3.28% (3.33% APY). That 3.3% is worth about 4.8% APY in a CD for someone in NYC in the 22% tax bracket. And its yield is rising.
    I follow the SIFMA Municipal Swap Index Yield, which is calculated and published Wednesday afternoons. Because of the holiday, that did not occur today, but will tomorrow. The yield on muni money market funds follow this yield. Here is the past 5 weeks and as you can see, the yield is all over the place. For reasons that I do not understand, the line on the chart has been serpentine for as long as I have been watching it, which has been a few years.
    11-20 3.18
    11-27 2.86
    12-4 2.15
    12-11 2.91
    12-18 3.60
    Below are recent yields for VMSXX and SWOXX and again, they follow the weekly SIFMA Municipal Swap Index Yield. We will see what tomorrow brings.
    11-19 3.38% 3.29%
    11-20 3.41% 3.30%
    11-21 3.33% 3.22%
    11-22 3.14% 3.07%
    11-25 3.09% 3.03%
    11-26 3.03% 2.99%
    11-27 3.00% 2.97%
    11-29 2.90% 2.91%
    12-2 2.85% 2.87%
    12-3 2.79% 2.81%
    12-4 2.70% 2.72%
    12-5 2.55% 2.59%
    12-6 2.17% 2.23%
    12-9 2.07% 2.11%
    12-10 1.99% 2.07%
    12-11 1.99% 2.08%
    12-12 2.13% 2.20%
    12-13 2.58% 2.61%
    12-16 2.72% 2.74%
    12-17 2.83% 2.84%
    12-18 2.95% 2.94%
    12-19 3.05% 3.03%
    12-20 3.32% 3.25%
    12-21 3.42% 3.33%
    12-24 3.59% 3.49%
  • Maturing CDs
    I made a lengthy post this morning regarding callable CDs. If anyone is interested in responding to that, I would appreciate it.
    Hey, it takes time to compose :-) Done.
    At Schwab, major banks are offering long term callable CDs (18 month, 2 year, 3 year) of 4.4 and 4.5%, with the first callable date in July of 25. That tells me, I can get the equivalent of .3 to .4% more than a noncallable 6 month CD at Schwab. If the Bank does NOT call it in July of 25, you will continue to receive the 4.4 to 4.5% interest rate until they do call it.
    For callable CDs at Schwab, major banks are offering 4% long term rates, so the Banks appear somewhat confident that interest rates will not drop below 4% for the next few years? I don't understand Banks offering callable CDs at these rates, if CD rates were expected to continue their rapid decline of the past year, as some posters are projecting?
    One way to think of callable CDs is not as 2 year loans with a call option exercisable in 6 months but as 6 month loans (to the bank) with a put option held by the bank (on a 1.5 year loan) exercisable in 6 months. IOW, the bank is paying you about 1/4% extra interest over six months in order to have the option to "force" you to loan them money at a predetermined rate (say, 4.5%).
    The bank is betting that mid-to-long term interest rates will go up, and it is willing to pay you a sweetener on a 6 month CD in order to lock in that 4.5% rate. Banks aren't always right, though one should look carefully before betting against them.
    Regarding 10 year rates, Schwab writes:
    With the potential for fewer Fed rate cuts and a higher deficit to fund, investors could reasonably demand more yield to compensate for those risks. A return to the average of the historical range could add as much as another 50 basis points to 10-year Treasury yields, all else being equal. That would mean an estimate for 10-year yields of near 5%. Hence, we are cautious about duration because the risks for long-term yields appear skewed to the upside.
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fixed-income-outlook (Dec 4)
    Everyone expects "cash" (fed funds rate) to drop 25-50 basis points. What happens with rates for periods between 0-years and 10-years may be up for grabs. If they drop, buying a callable CD may leave you with the added "sweetener" and a reinvestment task in six months. (The CD gets called.) If these rates rise, there will be an opportunity cost (you're "stuck" at 4.5%). But that's okay if you're satisfied with the rate.
    Here's an interesting way to hedge your bets at a cost of course. You can lock in a 4.21% APY for a year where you (not the bank) control what happens - you can add money (no limit) if rates decline, or withdraw money (up to two withdrawals).
    Credit Human (an NCUA insured credit union) is offering a Liquid Share Certificate with those terms.
    Does any of this matter? Not a lot, not really. One can slice and dice the risk between lender and bank in a variety of ways and with a range of costs ("sweeteners"). But in the next year or so, it may not make a whole lot of difference. That is, the variations are endless, but the risks and rewards being moved around may turn out to be relatively small.
    (Credit Human also offers 19-23 month CDs with APY of 4.4% without call risk.)
    Personally, I'm content leaving cash in MMFs (or very short T-bills) for a couple of months to see how the markets shake out after Jan 20th.
    People may not have noticed that muni MMFs have been soaring of late, especially NY. Schwab's $1M min version, SNYXX, has a 7 day yield of 3.49% (APY 3.56%), its retail version, SWYXX has a 3.34% yield (APY 3.40%), and Fidelity's $25K min version FSNXX is at 3.28% (3.33% APY). That 3.3% is worth about 4.8% APY in a CD for someone in NYC in the 22% tax bracket. And its yield is rising.
    Play the game, add a small amount of return and more stress. Settle on a fixed rate for a few months or a couple of years, and relax more. If you're not into the hunt, the latter may be the better path.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
    One definitely needs to balance performance with opportunity costs. When I made that calculation, it was worthwhile for me to invest in MYGAs (Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities) with guaranteed annual returns of 6%, 6.35%, and 6.5% for three, seven, and five years, respectively. Unless I withdraw funds from them, the returns are also tax-deferred which allows me to plan withdrawals or let them ride to maturity as suits my situation.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
    FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing CD investors, deciding what those particular investors will do with their maturing CDs, not directed toward investors who will never hold CDs. If you want to "convert" the rest of us CD sinners, you will do it without restraint on this thread.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.