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See excerpt below from a Google Search on Credit Union "Share Certificates";Most of us know how FDIC insurance works and troubled banks are resolved but most of us have no understanding of how deposit insurance works at credit union level. Please educate us with examples of how depositors of CUs were protected (or not protected) when CUs got into trouble.
Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and if it is not called then I am fine with that callable rate for the length of the CD.
Regarding MMs, I am expecting all categories of MMs to fall below 4% in 2025--I will continue holding MMs but may reduce the amount I will keep in them.
@dtconroe. a very prudent decision for someone not into risk/drawdown and who is not a trader. Regarding CLOs, what is conveniently not mentioned is like most everything else in Bondland they melted down too during the Covid meltdown. Investment grade CLOs from AAA to BBB had drawdowns from 10% to 30% while below investment grade drawdowns were 40% to 45%. As recently as 2022, while investment grade CLOs eked out a small gain (JAAA) of under 1% below investment grade lost money. The longest tenured bond fund primarily into CLOs ( an interval fund) lost money 4 years since its 2014 inception. In 2020 had a multi week drawdown of 30%. 2023 and 2024 just happened to be “the right place right time” for CLOs. I hold slightly under 50% in CLOs but I am more than cognizant of the risks. A substitute for cash they certainly aren’t.
@dtconroe. a very prudent decision for someone not into risk/drawdown and who is not a trader. Regarding CLOs, what is conveniently not mentioned is like most everything else in Bondland they melted down too during the Covid meltdown. Investment grade CLOs from AAA to BBB had drawdowns from 10% to 30% while below investment grade drawdowns were 40% to 45%. As recently as 2022, while investment grade CLOs eked out a small gain (JAAA) of under 1% below investment grade lost money. The longest tenured bond fund primarily into CLOs ( an interval fund) lost money 4 years since its 2014 inception. In 2020 it had a multi week drawdown of 30%. As recently as 2022 this CLO fund lost 4.48%. 2023 and 2024 just happened to be “the right place right time” for CLOs. I hold slightly under 50% in CLOs but I am more than cognizant of the risks. A substitute for cash they certainly aren’t.Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and if it is not called then I am fine with that callable rate for the length of the CD.
Regarding MMs, I am expecting all categories of MMs to fall below 4% in 2025--I will continue holding MMs but may reduce the amount I will keep in them.
For sure. You’d be safer I think laying a wager at DraftKings on something. And wouldn’t need to wait 30 years to find out if you were right or wrong. However, if the current yield looks good to you and you are willing to wait 30 years you will earn the current rate of interest and not lose a penny of principal.I'm aware I would need to keep a focused eye in order to avoid a buzz cut!
I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/how-bitcoin-became-boring/681141/Bitcoin was designed to be a currency that people could use for trustless transactions—transactions that could be carried out without need for a financial intermediary such as a bank. But transactions in which bitcoin is used to buy or sell goods and services make up only a tiny fraction of the currency’s total trading volume, most of which is made up of people buying or selling bitcoin itself.
...
[B]itcoin was designed to facilitate decentralized person-to-person transactions, but most bitcoin trading, at least in the West, now takes place on centralized exchanges. Again, in its liberatory promise, bitcoin was supposed to not just be independent of traditional financial institutions and government, but also enable alternatives to them. Yet the big engine of the price boom of the past two years has been bitcoin’s integration into the conventional investment industry (through such vehicles as exchange-traded funds, or ETFs), increased purchases by institutional investors and corporations, and now the prospect of legitimization by the government itself.
I've had a CD ladder for about 12-13 years. I am 100% against callable CDs. They just don't fit our strategy as callable CDs beg for constant maintenance due to their inherent duration uncertainties.I made a lengthy post this morning regarding callable CDs. If anyone is interested in responding to that, I would appreciate it.
I'm not trying to convert or influence anyone. I'm stating generic comments.DT: FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing CD investors, deciding what those particular investors will do with their maturing CDs, not directed toward investors who will never hold CDs. If you want to "convert" the rest of us CD sinners, you will do it without restraint on this thread.
I follow the SIFMA Municipal Swap Index Yield, which is calculated and published Wednesday afternoons. Because of the holiday, that did not occur today, but will tomorrow. The yield on muni money market funds follow this yield. Here is the past 5 weeks and as you can see, the yield is all over the place. For reasons that I do not understand, the line on the chart has been serpentine for as long as I have been watching it, which has been a few years.People may not have noticed that muni MMFs have been soaring of late, especially NY. Schwab's $1M min version, SNYXX, has a 7 day yield of 3.49% (APY 3.56%), its retail version, SWYXX has a 3.34% yield (APY 3.40%), and Fidelity's $25K min version FSNXX is at 3.28% (3.33% APY). That 3.3% is worth about 4.8% APY in a CD for someone in NYC in the 22% tax bracket. And its yield is rising.
One way to think of callable CDs is not as 2 year loans with a call option exercisable in 6 months but as 6 month loans (to the bank) with a put option held by the bank (on a 1.5 year loan) exercisable in 6 months. IOW, the bank is paying you about 1/4% extra interest over six months in order to have the option to "force" you to loan them money at a predetermined rate (say, 4.5%).At Schwab, major banks are offering long term callable CDs (18 month, 2 year, 3 year) of 4.4 and 4.5%, with the first callable date in July of 25. That tells me, I can get the equivalent of .3 to .4% more than a noncallable 6 month CD at Schwab. If the Bank does NOT call it in July of 25, you will continue to receive the 4.4 to 4.5% interest rate until they do call it.
For callable CDs at Schwab, major banks are offering 4% long term rates, so the Banks appear somewhat confident that interest rates will not drop below 4% for the next few years? I don't understand Banks offering callable CDs at these rates, if CD rates were expected to continue their rapid decline of the past year, as some posters are projecting?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fixed-income-outlook (Dec 4)With the potential for fewer Fed rate cuts and a higher deficit to fund, investors could reasonably demand more yield to compensate for those risks. A return to the average of the historical range could add as much as another 50 basis points to 10-year Treasury yields, all else being equal. That would mean an estimate for 10-year yields of near 5%. Hence, we are cautious about duration because the risks for long-term yields appear skewed to the upside.
One definitely needs to balance performance with opportunity costs. When I made that calculation, it was worthwhile for me to invest in MYGAs (Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities) with guaranteed annual returns of 6%, 6.35%, and 6.5% for three, seven, and five years, respectively. Unless I withdraw funds from them, the returns are also tax-deferred which allows me to plan withdrawals or let them ride to maturity as suits my situation.The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing CD investors, deciding what those particular investors will do with their maturing CDs, not directed toward investors who will never hold CDs. If you want to "convert" the rest of us CD sinners, you will do it without restraint on this thread.The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
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