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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maturing CDs
    DT: I qualified for SNAXX in 2020 in my IRA account, when I met the $1 million investment requirements, but have to use SWVXX for my taxable holdings because I did not have enough money to qualify for SNAXX
    Easy solution. In 2020+2022 I held MM at Schwab. I purchased SNAXX in 2020 in my rollover(=trad) IRA. Then I transferred one share from TIRA to Roth IRA and from Roth one share to my taxable.
    I actually also bought at that time SUTXX+SCOXX and transferred to all accounts because when risk is very high, I like the safer options.
    =============
    The older I get and more money I have, the more conservation I get, but no CD/treasuries for me so far. I still use MM when risk is very high and I'm out of market.
    CLOs had one of the best opportunities I have seen for years. I still in them heavily. Great performance with very low volatility. I looked at PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis.
    CLOZ, one of the lower-rated CLOs, made over 20% in just 1.5 years.
    Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss why they believe the strategic case for AAA CLOs remains compelling amid Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
    (https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/do-aaa-clos-still-make-sense-in-a-declining-rate-environment/)
    Another CLOs link (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/why-clos-still-make-sense-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/)
    RPHIX should be a no-brainer.
    When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind.
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    alarm set for about 10 years
    Now just 9½ years.
    The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
    It seems to me that it did, and in a rather curious way. Despite current antipathy toward "freeloading" government workers and government in general (there's a reason why Congress' pay raise was dropped from the CR), the unfair treatment of government workers was used effectively to garner support for eliminating WEP and GPO.
    I find it interesting to compare the relative success (though it took years) in revoking these laws with the failed effort of Social Security notch babies to get more benefits for themselves. In both cases, it seemed that the loudest supporters of change were those who would directly benefit.
    One difference is the size of the groups who stood to gain. Notch babies were just those workers born between 1917 and 1921. There are many more government workers. And they are still alive and apparently kicking.
    Another difference is the matter of fairness. With WEP, most workers affected received less than their fair share of benefits. (Under WEP some high earners got more than their fair share, though less than they will receive now.) In contrast, all notch babies received more than their fair share; they just got less of a windfall than those born before 1917. That was their gripe.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/quinn/columns/030299.htm
    Here's a paper with everything you wanted to know (and more) about the flaws in WEP and GPO and how two proposals could reduce (IMHO extinguish) inequities. TL; DR (19 page pdf).
    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.html (HTML format)
    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.pdf (pdf format)
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    WEP & GPO offsets were simple and crude mechanisms that had been in effect for 41 years. Now they are gone for at least 10 years. The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
    My guess is that they may comeback in a better and more rational form when there are comprehensive fixes to Social Security - the clock is ticking with alarm set for about 10 years.
    There are arguments for and against and I have summarized them in the link below - separately from the news,
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1787/thread
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    ADD: A reported gauge monitored by the FED, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) slowed somewhat, may have helped support positive pricing on Friday for bond NAVs, via lower yields.
    ADD #2: MANY BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
    ADD #3: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
    --- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
    --- Explanation
    Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
    --- Origin
    The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
    --- Example
    In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E December 20 , 2024. Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP for most + distributions
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, with FRIDAY being the exception day. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 16 - December 20, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.37% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .05 - .07% basis change in yield for the week.
    --- AGG = -.66% / +1.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +5.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.04% / +3.66 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.45% / +1.63% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.82% / -.46% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.00% / +1.64% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.37% / +4.50% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.45% / +4.07% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.24% / -4.31% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1.66% / -7.03% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.31% / -11.54% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -2.69% / -14.46% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +3.69% / +24.74% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -5.66% / -33.51% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.72% / +1.95% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.12% / +5.31% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = -1.25% / +.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = -.59% / +1.29% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.24% / +7.84% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.53% / +7.87 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -1.40%/+3.49% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.73% /+.93% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -1.21%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -2.16% / +11.59% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -.88% / +7.96% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.37% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • YBB’s weekly Barron’s summaries
    Well …the current issue (12/23/24) doesn’t have much to offer.
    Cover Story ”Shopping Addiction” Really?
    Slim pickings inside this week.
    - The O’Brien piece on preparing your portfolio for 2025 is downright insulting:
    Rather than plotting big moves based on tea leaves, make sure your mix of stocks and bonds is still aligned with your goals. Stocks’ big run-up means you could have a higher equity allocation than you bargained for, especially if you didn’t make any tweaks after the S&P 500’s 24% gain in 2023.”
    Gosh - You’d think that would be covered somewhere in a college freshman econ class, if not a high school investment club.
    - One worthwhile story touts (undervalued / under appreciated) value stocks which are poised to outperform next year. Where have I heard that before?
    - NVIDA’s on hard times (their phrase - ”dead in the water”) being down 15% from its high. My heart goes out to those who bought two years ago.
    - And Forsyth expects one of 3 possible interest rate scenarios for 2025: Good, Bad or Ugly. Take that to the bank folks.
  • Maturing CDs
    Short term yields seem to have anticipated the Fed move. The 1 month yield dropped significantly between Dec 2 (4.75%) and Dec 12 (4.43%), but has been relatively flat since (now 4.43%).
    OTOH, the 2 and 10 year rates started their most recent rise on Dec 6 (4.10% and 4.15% respectively) and have continued to rise to and through the Fed rate increase (now yielding 4.30% and 4.52%). Perhaps anticipating higher inflation?
    Daily yield table, Dec 2024
    One approach is not to be too greedy. If one is satisfied with 4.3% for three years, one can go with that and not look back.
    Another approach is to go short term (giving up almost no yield at the moment), with the hope that longer term rates won't reverse course and drop. If that plays out and short term rates resume falling, one can switch horses (to multi-year bonds/CDs) and pick up the same (or better) rates as now.
    This requires keeping a closer eye on rates and the economy so as not to get caught flat footed if rates drop across all maturities.
    2- and 10-year treasury yields (since July)
    image
    2- and 10-year treasury yields compared with 1-month treasury yield (since July)
    image
  • Maturing CDs
    Yields fell since the rate cut this week. Most noncallable CD’s (1-2 years) are yielding 4.2% at Fidelity. Still sticking with T bills and USFR in non-IRA accounts.
  • Anarchy Begins: Republican spending bill to avert government shutdown fails in House
    Let us hope!
    but Brooks for many years has been the prizewinning chump of ultra-equivocal quasi-prog / wannabe-con handwringing nambypambies
    and just two days ago admitted an astounding essay discovering, or claiming to discover, numinosity
    Quite something
  • Anarchy Begins: Republican spending bill to avert government shutdown fails in House
    Just in case you had any doubt as to what Orangina's priorities are here....this morning he's totally down with shuting the government down "on Biden's watch" to get his way.
    Orangina has no concern for the country whatsoever.
    His loyalists (40% of the population) don't care about this. They allow themselves to be brain-washed - Biden is the sole reason for inflation issues, or so they now believe.
    Orange is going to FIX EVERYTHING!!! LOL. Yeah. Tariffs, govt shutdowns and Project 2025. Then he just blames Dems for all the world's woes in the next 4 years.
    And he avoids jail time.
  • OUCH.....OUCH, OUCH, OUCH !!! Post FED chat results for some etf's, 12-18-24
    Looks like the Trump honeymoon is over for the markets. I’m not surprised
    Me neither. Add in y/e selling, cashing in on the post-election euphoria, and perhaps a realization that the CRAZYTIMES are back in a little over a month, AND a looming GQP government shutdown, a noticeable pullback was expected (by me).
    Equitywise, in my income portfolio I'm getting more defensive, staying inside the US (other than TRP, though I may keep SOBO too) and 'overweighting' on utilities, pipelines, infrastructure, and preferreds as I position this account for pre-retirement purposes in the coming years. My growth+income ports I don't expect to do much with anytime soon -- just letting good stuff ride for the long term.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    BB: In this space, two or three funds may not provide meaningful diversification. For the most part, when XXXX hits the fan, they all go down together but I do acknowledge some historic idiosyncratic moves specific to each fund, which is not very often.
    Stock funds are the ones without meaningful diversification when markets melt.
    Bonds are the ones with better diversification.
    In major stock declines, treasuries do well.
    When rates go up, bank loans are usually better than most.
    And then you have the special bond funds that do better in certain environments and you can find these very often in most years.
  • Tax Strategy to Fund DAFs
    #1b (upstream giving) looks like a pretty big loophole for mass affluent/high net worth investors (with significant assets but under roughly half the estate tax exemption limit). This one never occurred to me.
    As a loophole, it works with appreciated assets that you plan to hold for a few more years. Gift them to your 90 year old grandparent or parent, or for that matter any elderly person you trust with money. Have them bequeath that asset back to you in their will or via a TOD account.
    Presto, in a few years the capital appreciation tax liability has vanished and you have your assets back intact. It doesn't seem all that proper to me, but it also doesn't seem to be illegal. As Schwab writes, the assets can be left to any "selected beneficiary". That means even you.
    It's not quite as efficient as the way an ETF dumps appreciated assets onto authorized participants. But it is similar in spirit - use a straw man of sorts who has a way to make the tax liability disappear.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    If you traded in an IRA how large can one go specifically in IEP without having to worry about UBIT? Was the K-1 painful?
    Since you do not need much effort to get up to speed, may be it worth a relook at IEP. It is sub $10 a share now.
    I have other MLPs so the biggest 'pain' is waiting to collect them all and upload them to my accountant ... I used to do my own taxes but decided several years ago that my time is valuable too, the laws are getting more cumbersome, and why the hell not pay for the convenience? :) And I only ever hold them in taxable accounts anyway so UBTI isn't an issue.
    I'll look at it again, just out of morbid curiosity. But I already have my income shopping list and am just waiting for things to 'go on sale' ....
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Any one interested in IEP should know now it yields 20%. Has had a few distribution cuts.
    Was in and out of it over the years. After the Hindenburg short raid last year I bailed, took the loss to offset gains elsewhere, and never looked back. Not sure I'd want to go back in after that, plus the div cuts, and general restructuring of things they've been doing.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    @catch22, the 10 years treasury rose again to 4.40% on Friday, 12/13/24. Now it is higher than the shorter T bills, 3 mo and 6 mo. Is this the beginning of the yield curve flattens ?
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    @equalizer, will you be covered through employer group health insurance plan until 65 when Medicare kicks in?
    Years ago, mine did only IF I opted for pension, not lump-sum. But plans differ on this.
    Yes, covered by employer till 65,
  • Tax Strategy to Fund DAFs
    Well, with either #1 or #2, you get the tax saving, but have $40 in your hands and still have $24 to soft-manage within the DAF.
    Remember, $64K with large unrealized gain does have higher market risk.
    Actually, a 3rd scenario (variation of #2) can be constructed so that you donate some in-kind to DAF and cash the remainder so that the net tax impact is zero. And you end up with the combo of cash in your hands plus a good chunk in DAF to soft-manage.
    Money in the DAF is out of your estate.
    There are also income limitations for DAF contributions,
    "Overall deductions for donations to donor-advised funds are generally limited to 50% of your adjusted gross income (AGI). The limit increases to 60% of AGI for cash gifts, while the limit on donating appreciated non-cash assets held more than one year is 30% of AGI. The IRS permits a carryover for five tax years, should your charitable deduction exceed AGI limits in a given tax year."
    https://www.schwabcharitable.org/non-cash-assets/publicly-traded-securities
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    ”The Psychology of Trafing Trading is a good book I read many moons ago which I recommend to people who want to understand emotional techniques to deal with trading. This is not the same as investing for which you are better off listening to munger interviews.”
    Right. Trading can be highly profitable as many here demonstrate. As @Equalizer noted, riskier holdings lend themselves to smaller commitment. So the perceived prize from any single holding is probably less than one might expect. Yet the mental work (anguish?) is very intense compared to owning a diversified fund.
    The ‘07-‘09 fiasco was relatively short in comparison to some of the major historical market slides. May have taught some of us the wrong lesson.
    I’d suggest following at least three different market commentators (pundits) with contrasting market outlooks or approaches to investing, including one bearish source. Try to give each some credence and then chart your course..
    The portfolio analyzers may help keep one (ie he, she, it, they, them) on an even knell. If it’s hard to find compelling buys, ratchet up the cash, bond, “other” or income focused part while pulling back a bit on the percentage in stocks. Personally, I reached a high of 48-50% equities 12-18 months ago. Has fallen to 35% today. My unorthodox approach is to swap-out entire portfolio segments (each representing about 17%).Hence, the considerable slug in LCORX (60+% equity) was recently moved into LPXAX which invests primally in short duration bonds and preferred stocks. A year from now, who knows? Might sell it and move back into a more aggressive holding if market valuations change. (My positioning is for a 78 year old and not a recommendation for others.)
    I do not recommend alcohol for any important thought activity like trading. But it probably works for some. I began taking small doses of NAC, a non-prescription health supplement a decade ago after reading a WSJ piece saying it may stop nail biting. And it worked after 40+ years of gnawing. Works by reducing compulsive tendencies. I don’t think it affects my investing. But possibly makes the bumps along the way easier to tolerate.
  • Tax Strategy to Fund DAFs
    Many investors are considering TLH to book losses to offset gains or to just carryover losses into future years (they never expire).
    Here is another tax strategy for capital gains in this good year 2024.
    Book gains and fund DAF with those gains (better with comparable value in-kind). You will get full tax deduction on Itemized Schedule A for 2024. There will be no net effect on taxes. Trick is to consolidate other deductions so that you itemize instead of taking standard deduction in 2024. Only 2 weeks left to implement this.
    For those who would like a quick refresher on DAFs, here is my article in a local e-paper,
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/donor-advised-funds-dafs/
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    @equalizer, will you be covered through employer group health insurance plan until 65 when Medicare kicks in?
    Years ago, mine did only IF I opted for pension, not lump-sum. But plans differ on this.