I agree but ZEOIX has a shorter duration ( 0.57 vs 1.4) so will handle rising rates much better
BTW how do you easily access the older and much better fund pages at M* ? your link works but I cant get it to load any other fund's profile

@guilhermes
ZEOIX had a good record for several years but HY have their problem when markets collapse. Losing -0.8% is a lot of money especially when you compare it to DHEIX which has over 80% in IG rating bonds. BTW, ZEOIX also lost -0.6% in Q4/2018.
I'm just giving several options. If it was me and I was looking for a "cash sub" fund I would use DHEIX and not ZEOIX. See (chart)

@davidrmoran
When I say 4.5% including inflation it means exactly that. These numbers are based on 3% inflation. In 2010 I planned my retirement date to be at the end of 2017. I postponed it by one year because private healthcare (ACA) triple in price. So, from 2010 to 2018 I gradually decrease our portfolio % in stocks and increase bonds. Since 2018, I mainly invest in bond + make several trades in riskier stuff(stocks,ETFs,CEFs) for days and weeks.
I used to own a large % in PIMIX for years from 2011-2018. This is the performance of PIMIX vs 50/50 SPY/BND (link)
The 6% is just a goal but I happened to make more in 2018-2019. According to my Schwab account, my portfolio SD for 2018-19 is 1.7. In Q4/2018 when the SP500 lost almost 20%, my portfolio was down less than 1%. In the last 2 weeks, when stocks lost 12+% my portfolio made money every day.
Let's stay on the topic of this thread Bond fund analysis.

Hi Guys,
I have always enjoyed reading Dr. Madell's newsletter as he writes good down to eath thinking. I especially enjoyed reading about his suggested 25/25/50 asset allocation portfolio that he used in this months newsletter to compute portfolio performance. This was of good interest to me since my portfolio now centers around a 20/40/40 asset allocation mix. For me my asset allocation is important, to me, because it reflects my risk tolerance, meets my production needs thus meeting my need based goals. Plus, it is a lesson in how to manage investment risk as well.
In reading his newsletter take a few notes ... say of at least three things ... that are interest and see if they don't resonate with you in your own investing endeavors. If you can not find at least three things then perhaps you should consider changing your thinking and your philosophy concerning investing.
Hopefully, he will soon write about how to determine fair value for both the stock and bond markets. I'd be interested in reading his perpsectives on this subject.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."

@catch22, very timely and great allocation. You should do well if this correction continues. We rebalanced several weeks ago as the market peaked. Will sit tight until the smoke clear. Don't know if you subscribe to WSJ. Here is a piece from Jason Zweig.
https://wsj.com/articles/the-pros-have-to-sell-stocks-now-you-dont-11582722004

Hi @Old_Joe
Last Friday noon time I was on a normal grocery shopping trip. I stopped at two very large stores; and in both cases spent about 15 minutes wandering (watching) the aisle areas where hand sanitizer and related are located. In both stores the carts in those areas contained the sanitizer, latex or similar gloves and standard face masks.
An interesting watch, as well as the conversations in the area, too.

On the "developing news" side of things, here's some excerpts from a very interesting story out of the SF Bay Area regarding "panic buying", as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle:

Supplies fly off shelves in Bay Area as coronavirus spreads
Bare shelves and frayed nerves were on full display over the weekend at Bay Area grocery stores as the coronavirus continued to spread.
Shoppers described chaotic scenes, many of which were shared on social media: stacks of rice and toilet paper snatched up within seconds, checkout lines that snaked through entire stores, and jam-packed parking lots reminiscent of Christmas Eve.
It’s the latest ripple effect of the outbreak of a still mysterious respiratory illness that in the past two months has caused more than 88,000 people around the world to fall ill. The virus that only a few weeks ago was mostly confined to China now has recorded cases in more than 60 nations.
According to figures compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the number of fatalities from the illness rose to more than 3,000 on Sunday. More than 2,800 are in China, where the outbreak originated. The first American fatality occurred Saturday in Washington state, and a second death was reported there Sunday.
With numbers climbing and no vaccine available, institutions such as the World Health Organization and the United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in recent days have warned that people should be prepared for a pandemic situation, including the possibility of having to stay confined in their homes for one or two weeks.
The results of that warning could be glimpsed in the depleted shelves and long lines in stores this weekend.
[At a local Costco] dozens of cars snaked around the block, waiting to enter the parking lot. Shoppers lugged jugs of water and emergency supplies, since there wasn’t a single shopping cart left to grab.

It will be interesting to see how or if this reaction develops nationwide, and note the stresses that it might place on the national grocery distribution channels.
Note: The San Francisco Chronicle has no paywall, and should be accessible via the above link.

>> ... make only [4%-]4.5% including inflation ... average annually to sustain our standard of living. But I still want to make 6% with the lowest volatility (SD < 3) and never lose more than 3% from any last top.

Wow.
I am sure many of us, who like you have lucked out so fully in the bullish past decades, will be following your postings and decisions w great interest.
When you say including inflation you do mean just that, right? Not above inflation. (Not being snarky; just that some writers get that backward, same as, say, writing 'impossible to underestimate' when they meant 'impossible to overestimate'.)

Rates of death 20s% over 80 years old, 14% 60 to 80 years old, less than 1% if younger than 60
More than 1/5ths trump voters maybe out by end of may,/june
Trump Biden bernie Bloomberg may be gone, high exposures to crowded areas

With respect to Central and South America, here are elected excerpts from a current article from the AP via the San Francisco Chronicle:

Officials in Ecuador on Saturday confirmed the first case of the new coronavirus in the South American nation, while Mexico reported two more cases and Brazil one more.
It was the second case in South America, following a Brazilian case reported on Wednesday. The Sao Paulo state health department reported another Brazilian case later on Saturday — a person who had recently visited Italy.
Mexico's Health Department said late Friday that a new case had been confirmed in Mexico City, adding to the first two confirmed cases announced earlier that day. One of those was also in the capital, and the other in the northwestern state of Sinaloa.
The governor of the northern border state of Coahuila said Saturday that federal health officials had confirmed a fourth case, in the city of Torreon: a 20-year-old woman who traveled to Europe, including Milan, Italy, in January and February and returned to Mexico in recent days.

If you don't proactively test for the virus then you have no idea if it's present or not. How many of those "Southern and equator" countries do you suppose have the resources for, and actually are, actively testing?

Analysis at the end, after the performance.

Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
PTIAX….3.7….1.0
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
SEMMX...1.8....0    (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
HY Munis
PHMIX…..4.6.....1
NHMAX....5.35.....1
MMHAX....4.15.…..1
OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
ORNAX….5.3……1.3
GHYAX......4.4......1
GWMEX….5.3…...1.5  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
NVHAX……2.8……0.4  (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
PINCX……3.5..…0.9
BND….......3.7…....1.1
Bank Loans/Floating rate
EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
Uncontrain/Nontrad
IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
HY +EM
HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SDCorporate
PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
Preferred
PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
OTHER
FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4  (SP500)
PCI………-5.4... -7.6  (CEF)
“CASH SUB" (most with 3 years SD under 1 or close to it)
SEMMX...1.8....0      
DHEIX….1.4….0.35
ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
DBLSX…0.75….0.1
LALDX….1.0….0.1
SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2  (ST HY)
MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
PMZIX….1.3….0.25
BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)
Observations:
Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.
Multi- mixed bag last week.  PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK
HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds.
Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down
Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY.  I use this category only when I know rates are going up.
Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT
HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.
Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.
SP500-in correction
PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week.  At times like this CEFs are exposed.
“CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD less than 1.  It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds.  SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.
===========================
Generic Views
My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.  OPTAX has done best YTD
The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,PUCZX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX.  SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized.  JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise of losing just -0.1%. PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.
“CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list)  as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link).  In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT
IISIX disappointed.  Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner.  Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.

Hi sir...imho if you have long term horizon >10yrs probably keep trucking and keep place your new monies into lifecycles etf funds or sp500/dows/qqq etf.
This is what we did before and continued after 2007 crash and we did extremely well
If short term horizon few yrs til retirement probably best to speak to fidelity or Schwab advisors./vanguard advisors and decide best actions maybe placed to high bond portfolio/cash/monies-CD high quality corporate bonds. We rebalance mama portfolio 16 months ago (she retired now high 50s%bonds and 40%stocks) ; she lost 1.5% over past 5 wks but lots Dividends from Corp bonds come in tomorrow so she maybe happy in next few days
Her few top holdings DODFX /fidelity contrafund(we stop distributing to these fund),
But continued to add to fbnd, phk, jnk, fidelity2015 lifecycle fund, poncx, lsbrx
Very conservative portfolio
For mine portfolio highest holdings are in brk.b, dows etf, vti vanguard primecap core, vgstx, spy, eem...we continued to add to these recently
2%in gold, 1% cash
We added vde energy oil etf late friday
Regards

Tis likely that you have a site or sites you may prefer, if you're curious about changing circumstances regarding COVID-19.
This news link is decent, although not fully inclusive of all changes. Note: depending upon your browser; you may have to refresh the page for the most current info (age of data shown just above first pic).
Two other sites I've been using, which are using data base graphics. You'll have to "play" with these to discover how the site functions.
John Hopkins
BNO, Netherlands Note: site updates have slowed in the past several days.
Add: The COVID-19 remains a concern for equity investments and a likely positive for investment grade bonds, in particular U.S. gov't. issues. Events and travel continue to be curtailed, be it government or private sector. These among many other reactions from global citizens will have an impact, yes? So, GDP/growth going forward will take a hit, IMHO. No fancy math required. Consumer spending in this country is a large portion of what "makes things go 'round".
A view from the past week ending is interesting. I don't know whether the "end of the month window dressing" is any longer something that active managed funds use or do. Although I suspect this attempt is no longer valid with so many other products and players in the markets, in particular, the algo driven investments. Must have been a choice of play....the large cap growth area. But, watching the U.S. equity markets on Friday had a few areas that were interesting. Mid-day on Friday found growth equity clawing its way for periods of positive direction.
The top 10 positive returns for active managed U.S. equity funds on Friday for Fidelity were all large cap growth. Hmmmm.
Bonds for the past week. Although I.G. bond prices were positive for the week, a lot of the bump arrived on Friday. I expected larger price movements for all days of the week. Also, that as U.S. equity had a bump in the last 30 minutes of Friday, bonds also found some selling from profit taking or whatever ???
Also, that China is supposedly opening some manufacturing. 'Course, who knows.
Be well,
Catch

Hi Bobpa
I must presume you have ready access to about whatever balanced fund you desire.
Over a +10 year time (the longer the better), none of your choices will vary much, or at least enough to cause concern, IMHO.
chart, from July, 2008 to date
Moderate Allocation list
Build your own: BAGIX and FDGRX , 198% average since July, 2008 chart
Comparative returns from my list in the chart, from July, 2008:
--- JBALX = 159%
--- VLAAX = 152%
--- FBALX = 143%
--- VWINX = 135%
*** BAGIX and FDGRX, build your own = 198% (note: FDGRX closed, with exceptions, but an excellent equity example in the growth fund area.
Overview: If one holds a 50-70% moderate allocation fund, active managed; there will be periods when equity takes a hit that will cause the investor to have "oh, crap" moments.
There is nothing designed into these type of funds that attempts to "out think" the markets, Standard balanced funds had "ah-ha" periods during the 2008 market melt, the 2011 downgrade of the AAA rating of U.S. debt by Moody's, a period in 2015-2016, a market thump in Feb. 2018, a big downward hit in Dec. 2018 and this past week. Given a long period, a quality fund in this area; from a firm that has a long enough track record to support a proper review, should allow an investor to pick from a top 20 or 30 list resulting in similar return outcomes over any 10 year period. A top 20 list is going to have comparisons, variations over shorter time frames due to management changes in holdings and what sector of the equity market in "hot" for awhile. A quality choice should serve anyone well in this area, with perhaps the greatest risk to the portfolio coming from the ability of the investor to stay with a plan. One may have faith in the skills of the management of a fund or build your own balanced fund. One bond fund and one equity fund or perhaps 2 of each at the most, for more of a diversified mix.
Only my view, Bobpa.
Regards,
Catch

Of course, high rated bonds were up and why EDV+TLT are up so much YTD, last month and last week.
As expected VWINX did fine because it has about 60% in high rated bonds and why VASIX with about 80% did better than VWINX.
The question is what funds have great LT risk/reward but also did well in a meltdown?
See a 3 year (chart) of IOFIX vs PRWCX,VLAAX,VWINX,VASIX. Then look at YTD (chart). This is what I call a great fund but not fair when stocks lost so much :-)

Worst: Two weeks ago, HACAX was up 13% YTD. Now it's down 2% YTD. So it's still beating S&P 500 YTD. I've held it around 20 years. The shares come with a seatbelt and owner's manual.
Best: DODIX.

These are the funds which generated the highest returns for me during this volatile week.
Bond Funds 1 WK YTD
Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) 0.35% 2.49%
Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond (VUSFX) 0.25% 0.65%
Equity Funds 1 WK YTD
Vanguard Intl Growth (VWILX) -8.27% -5.21%
MFS Instl Intl Equity (MIEIX) -8.44% -8.44%

US treasury and high quality investment grade bonds have done the best. Junk and emerging market (USD hedged or local currency) bonds had declined.

When rates decline high rated bonds do great.
As a mainly bondholder like me who wants to make more money in bonds, I'm looking for more flexible funds that do better in most markets.
NHMAX (HY Muni) has over 70% below investment grade bonds but they still managed to make 1% last week.
While most Multi lost money last week IOFIX made just 0.07 but PTIAX made 1% and VCFAX,SEMMX just lost -0.1%
When rates will go up treasuries will lose a lot more.
PUCZX+PIMIX disappointed last week. I use PIMIX as a second-tier fund since early 2018 and now added PUCZX to the same list. I can still use both for trading. PUCZX is rated at the top 5-9% for 1-3 years at M* but 49 for YTD. PIMIX is rated at YTD-63 one year-69 3 yr-23

Re: 1955 Found this
Crossing Wall Street

@Puddnhead Eisenhower had a heart attack on 9/24/55. (I was a military brat living near Washington D.C. at that time and vaguely remember that happening.) On Monday 9/26/55 the market dropped 6.5%. My assumption is it dropped far enough further during the next several days to achieve that 10%+ distinction.