Except the last part of the transcript,

Now, for shorter term, more call it tactically-oriented investors , volatility can actually breed opportunities, including the ability to use periodic rebalancing, to take advantage of market swings, frankly, in both directions. In the midst of all this volatility, there has also been a clear leadership trend, other than the obvious, maybe, the energy sector, and that leadership trend is high quality. I believe the days of the so-called low quality, high risk trade are mostly in the rear view mirror. Now ,for longer term, more strategically-oriented investors, we do believe it’s not a time to take on a high amount of risk but apply the long-term disciplines of not only rebalancing, but diversification.

March 16th is when the Fed meets to raise the rate by 0.25%. Let's see how the market reacts.

Golden Dragon China ETF PGJ is focused on the US-listed Chinese companies that is being affected by several issues:
1. Potential US delisting. The SEC has now started to list companies that face high delisting risks. This issue has been simmering for a while but is getting hot again.
2. Russia-Ukraine war has sensitized investors to risks in Chinese stocks if China-Taiwan issue flares up, or Russia relies/leans on China to escape some Western sanctions.
3. Covid-19 is spreading again in China and some cities have reimposed partial restrictions. The old Chinese policy of zero-tolerance for Covid-19 is also not working.
These issue have been mentioned within several threads, but this thread is started to collect related information in one place. There are several China funds, but PGJ may uniquely capture multiple China risks in one fund. It peaked in mid-February 2021 when many US speculative stocks also peaked.
PGJ at ETF.db https://etfdb.com/etf/PGJ/#etf-ticker-profile
PGJ at Stockcharts (2-yr, reset if defaults to 1-yr; bottom panels show $VXEEM (that is EM "VIX"), $SPX) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52602404535
News1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tech-rout-deepens-amid-020459036.html
News2 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/asia-markets-russia-ukraine-war-covid-omicron-wave-in-china-currencies-oil.html

Thanks @Sven. All is well other than being perpetually mired in 15-30 degree temperatures with treacherous ice & snow still covering the landscape of northern Michigan. I’m of the view we who post regularly are an inquisitive and independent thinking bunch. ISTM, however, there are many “lurkers” who rarely if ever post and who are therefore more interested in seeking answers. You can get a rough idea by the number of “views” that appear next to each thread. So I try to be cognizant of a larger community, to be as accurate and circumspect as I can be, and to not mislead anyone.
Haven’t found a good way to link full Barron’s or WSJ. articles. Always best to get the info right from the source of course.. However, by Googling a few key words from a posted quotation, it is sometimes possible to pull up the entire article online with enough perseverance. What I have done in the past is clip passages on my Fire device from Kindle based WSJ / Barron’s subscriptions; than email them to myself; than do another cut and paste from my computer to the board. Actually a time consuming process involving two different devices.
Thanks for the link. Saunders is excellent. Remember her from the old Rukeyser show. Unlike me, she hasn’t aged much. I haven’t yet seen anything bad that Schwab puts out. Will view the linked video.
Regards
PS - @Sven said: “Also MFO helped me to pick few great funds that I wouldn’t know about.”
Yes. About half of my funds were first mentioned on either Fund Alarm or MFO over the couple decades I’ve participated in those forums. And a select handful I own were first mentioned at MFO within the last year. Very grateful.

Perhaps take some solace here ...
There are 811 bond funds, excluding Specialty Income, that have never returned less than zero in any 3-year rolling period since launch. Several of these go back to circa 1980.
Among them: DODIX, PRCIX, FGOVX, VFIIX.

Barron’s ran the numbers for the items the government CPI omits
That 7.9% inflation figure that everyone is touting is comprehensive.
Excluding food and energy, the Y/Y figure is 6.4%.
I gave the link for the BLS data in an earlier post: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
Food is rising at exactly the same rate, 7.9%, as the overall inflation rate. Sure, the meats, poultry, fish and eggs subcategory is rising faster than that, but nearly all other food subcategories are rising at a slower rate. If Barron's is suggesting that the other food items are not "necessary items", it sounds like it is rigging its numbers.

Thanks @Sven
Forsyth’s more concerned with trying to draw wry and interesting parallels between today and 1974 than in building a substantive case. He notes early on that just as President Gerald Ford was becoming concerned enough to hold a high level conference on how to fight inflation in 1974 the economy was sliding into recession. But it took several more months for that to be confirmed. By inference, I think, he thinks the heightened efforts to control inflation now (mainly by hiking interest rates) will have the same effect that similar efforts to control inflation did in 1974. It is a sketchy case. He’s not into deep analysis.
He cites newsletter writer Stephanie Pomboy, who seems to me to be a perpetual bear. Pomboy maintains that high oil prices along with rising interest rates are a precursor to recession based on past cycles. He cites the JP Morgan data re the “probabilities” of recession based on how stocks, investment grade bonds and junk are trading. He calculates workers have lost 2.6% of buying power after wages / inflation are figured in. He cites declining consumer confidence sentiment and much higher inflation expectations as measured by U of M polling data. And he cites the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of an anemic 0.5% annual growth rate which he calls “just above stall speed.” Several of the preceding are bearish indicators. There’s more. But I can’t summarize the entire article here.
I would never invest based on Forsyth’s column (or any single mfo post). I realize a lot of people come here looking for answers on how to invest or for reassurance they’re on the right path. Nothing gleaned from the Forsyth column would satisfy that quest for answers.

Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
Verizon shows DSL speeds of around 3Mb in Cape Cod. I've managed to watch television on 1Mb DSL, so in theory you should have enough speed. But I agree, it's not something to use unless there are no alternatives. Xfinity/Comcast seems to have 300Mb (lowest speed) for $29.99 first year, $59.99 2nd year. Plus taxes that's likely the $65 you're hearing about.
For that money, I'm getting a "free" landline with Verizon FiOS (not an option available to you) as well as internet.
Consumer Reports just put up a page (for subscribers) describing various streaming services, including what they cost, and what they lack:
https://www.consumerreports.org/streaming-video/guide-to-streaming-video-services-a4517732799/
Excerpts of that piece can be found at the link below. It includes the writeups of DirecTV Stream, Fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling, and YouTube TV. It omits other services covered in the full CR piece including Acorn, Amazon Prime, AMC+, AppleTV+, BritBox, CNN+, Criterion, Discovery+, Disney+, etc.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/shopping/video-streaming-services-that-let-you-cut-cable-tv/ar-AAV05N6?ocid=msedgntp
FWIW, I use Sling Blue. $35, streams to up to three devices simultaneously. As opposed to Orange, has more news, less sports, no Disney. It doesn't include CBS or ABC, but in my market it includes the local NBC and Fox affiliates. For the rest, if you're near local broadcast stations, it integrates with AirTV2, a device that will pick up local channels and stream it through your intranet to the Sling app. $49 promo. Once positioned for optimal reception, one doesn't have to worry about getting those rabbit ears near the TV to work well. Doesn't help if you can't pick up local channels, though.
To tie this back to Dish, Sling is owned by Dish. And since DISH is in the S&P 500, there's a good chance that if you own a broad-based index fund, you own a piece of the company.

…
Barron’s ran the numbers for the items the government CPI omits:
“Excluding food and energy from the CPI seems like exactly the wrong thing to do right now. This week, this column is doing the opposite, stripping out everything but necessary items. Call it the Barron's Basics CPI, comprising year-over-year changes in foods like meat, eggs, bread, milk, and produce, in addition to shelter, gas, and utilities. The average change in those items climbed 16% in February from a year earlier—and that's before about a quarter of the world's wheat exports and a 10th of the world's oil exports effectively went off-line.”
“The Economy - Inflation is Worse than it Looks“ Barron’s - March 14, 2022

"Electric vehicles can be charged at power draws comparable to various household appliances. Most electric vehicles charging at home on a 240-volt level 2 charger will draw about 7,200 watts or less. For comparison, a typical electric furnace draws about 10,000 watts and a water heater uses 4,500 watts."
Energy.gov
As Puddnhead mentioned though charging up semi-tractors is a whole different game.

Between marcom babble, poorly informed writers, and sometimes well intentioned attempts at "simplification", some of what's written about annuities winds up as confusing and contradictory as it is enlightening.
Basic annuities (ignoring bells and whistles), while not as simple as bank accounts, are not as complex as they may seem. There is what annuitization means, and then a few parameters to think about.
Annuitization is where you give an insurance company a lump sum and in exchange it promises to pay you a stream of checks. When you choose to annuitize, when the checks start after that, and how long those checks keep coming - those are some of the basic parameters.
One often (not always) buys an annuity with a lump sum. That is called a "single premium" annuity.
Buying an annuity with a lump sum and waiting to annuitize is to buy a single premium deferred annuity (SPDA). See Investopedia:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/single-premium-deferred-annuity.asp
Until you annuitize (give the money to the insurer in exchange for that promised income stream), an annuity is like a nondeductible IRA. Tax sheltered, growing in value. This is called the "accumulation phase".
If you wait before annuitizing, i.e. if there is an accumulation phase, the annuity is said to be deferred. Otherwise the annuity is immediate.
One you annuitize (exchange the money in the annuity for a promised income stream), you can start getting checks immediately, or you may postpone the income stream. That's deferred income.
Annuitization may be deferrred and income (post-annuitization) may be deferred. People are so used to the idea that when one annuitizes one starts getting checks at once that they tend to conflate the two types of deferral.
Regarding Partnership for Long Term Care policies: one can find official state sites (each state runs its own program), but I do not believe there is any official national site. The AALTCI site looks solid. Recognize though that this is a website of an insurance trade group with a mandate of promoting all types of long term care coverage.

The national trade association for professionals dedicated to serving the long-term care planning needs of individuals, businesses and organizations.... Request a free, no-obligation cost comparison from an Association member today.

Your state doesn't have an official Partnership site because yours is one of the few states that hasn't legislated to implement Partnership plans. The most recent bill (not passed) was proposed by the 2019-2020 legislature, not the current one.
Sample official state sites include New York (I'm disappointed to read that no new policies are currently being written), Kansas, and South Dakota.

I found JPM logic for recession too simplistic. Its strategist NP said that the average decline of SP500 in recessions has been 26%. Recently, SP500 was off 13% from peak, so the chance of recession is 100*13/26 or 50%. So, its formula for the chance of recession is 100X/26, where X = %drop of SP500 from recent peak, and no other considerations, economic or geopolitical. For bonds, similar formula were applied to spreads. I thought JPM had better brains than that.

“We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.”
I’ve had Starlink for about 18 months and it’s terrific internet at $99 monthly plus a one-time $500 for the equipment. From there you can subscribe to any number of internet TV packages as low as $40 - and on up to the moon. Also some free content.
BTW - Before getting Starlink I relied for internet on 4G from Visible (owned by Verizon) which had dropped their data caps. By running the 4G streaming feed first into a MacBook (than to a TV) I actually managed to stream movies off of 4G. Less than ideal, but did work reasonably well with the buffering. (Would not work for live TV)
Just a thought …..

Thanks to @ Devesh Shah, YTD return on short-term inflation protection security such as VTIP and STIP are up 1.4%. Think they will do ok in rising rate environment.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2022/02/thoughts-on-inflation-protection/#more-16373
I moved most of my bonds to short duration bonds, bank loans, and stable value funds since last fall. Portion of it went to FSRRX and commodity funds. At least some asset class that have negative correlation to stocks and bonds.

+1.

COM’s lower MaxDD is very compelling comparing to BCOM index and other commodity funds/ETFs. The actively managed aspect and rule-based weighing of 12 sectors are quite attractive in this otherwise very volatile asset class. The references within the SA discussed further on the rule-based decision.
In addition to COM, @lynnbolin2021 also recommended DBC and FSRRX (26% commodity) as lower risk candidates for commodity exposure. All of these commodity funds have done much better than most stocks and bonds thus far.

We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
The recently jacked up prices $30 a month just because they could. We have the basic package for $ 120 ( Little sports, no CNN) to essentially watch local broadcast TV NBC CBS etc, because the nearest station is 80 mile away in Boston.
I am going to try Sling again for news but in the past when we recorded NBC news they dropped episodes. Rumor is internet only at Comcast costs $65, so we would have $60 to spend on other stuff and still come out ahead.
Who says America has a competitive market?

COM recommended by @lynnbolin2021 is an interesting idea. I am partial to actively managed funds here, and two of my choices SPCAX and GRHAX have better 1 year records. However, a quick analysis shows COM did have much less MAX DD 3/2020.
It has been around since 2017 although an OEM using the same strategy DXCIX died on the vine, for unclear reasons. There is still a reference on the website
While it claims it follows an index, the index is revamped monthly and it looks like the mangers have the ability to make daily changes to the portfolio. It seems to be a bit of a black box to me

There seem to be two takes on Pootin. 1) he is a genius who aims to restore Mother Russia and just miscalculated how hard Ukraine would fight, having assumed his heavy weapons etc could take them out before his conscript army fell apart. He assumed, so far correctly, the West would not use direct military action to stop him
To support this view, is news that his spy chiefs are under house arrest, reportedly for not reporting possibility of Ukraine resistance.
The hope here is sanctions will be so hard that he will take the rational out and back down.
2) Pootin is insane, a mad man whose only goal is this restoration and domination of Europe and he will resort to any tactic ( including nukes) if he is thwarted or backed into a corner.
Either way, Ukraine is in deep trouble unless NATO and the USA intervene with missile defenses protecting Western Ukraine, fighters and maybe even troops.
While predicting what Pootin would do in this situation is above my pay grade, I think we make a big mistake telling him what we "will not do", and relying on third parties to deliver the aid, or telling the Ukrainians to come pick it up.
By accepting his threat that foreign convoys in an independent country are legitimate targets, we have acquiesced to his game plan, without standing up to him.
The Ukraine is a free country where the USA and NATO have ever right to fly (heavily armed if necessary) supply convoys in, if requested by the government. Without this direct aid, Ukraine might as well surrender as the outcome will be the same.
We beat Stalin during the Berlin Airlift using our right to resupply our allies. What is the difference?

Could be true, and I hope it is that this is a "catastrophic error" on Putin's part that will lead to his downfall, but could also be a grave misunderstanding of Russian culture and how entrenched totalitarian regimes and their leaders can be. Stalin if I recall stuck around for quite a while:
https://vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion
https://nytimes.com/2022/03/13/world/europe/russia-exiles-putin-ukraine-war.html

PK tw today, slightly upbeat:
Thinking about the macroeconomics of the Putin shock. In the '70s oil price shocks were associated with severe recessions. But did they *cause* those recessions? A classic study including some people you may have heard of said no 1/:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNvNsXoX0AcHSeP?format=png&name=small
The price of oil in 2022 dollars. The '70s spikes were followed by big recessions. But the 2010-11 spike wasn't, nor were the '85 collapse and 2015 collapses followed by booms 2/:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNvOjo3XEAEYS8t?format=png&name=900x900
The difference was monetary policy: the Fed squeezed hard after '73 and '79, but didn't overreact to later fluctuations 3/:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNvO1djXoAYA8_w?format=png&name=900x900
This time, unfortunately, we're coming into this with inflation already elevated. But longer-term inflation expectations still seem anchored 4/:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNvPrDrXsAUq6Hg?format=jpg&name=medium
I favor gradual rate hikes, because the US economy does look somewhat overheated. But the Fed should resist demands that it slam hard on the brakes. We do not have to have a Putin recession 5/
plus 2 comments:
Another difference is the renewable option: today we have a few more choices then the '70s, not sure we'll use them, but some might.
... a good point. Not only do we have renewables, but they are generally a lot cheaper to implement than even the pre-invasion oil/gas prices.