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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Wall Street Week (Bloomberg), 2021 year in review, 48 minute video
    +1
    From what I could tell, this week’s is a rerun of last week’s show. I always watch it. Quality of these shows ranges from “just fair“ to “very good” on a week-to-week basis. I’d probably score the linked show about a “4” on a scale of 1-5. Some very good observation re valuations, interest rates, inflation in the latter half. Thanks @Catch23
    Larry Summers might be hard to swallow for some. I’ve grown to appreciate his frequently featured commentaries over time. :)
  • Wall Street Week (Bloomberg), 2021 year in review, 48 minute video
    Hopefully, some areas of interest for you. A few ads are in place, with the ad SKIP icon available.
    Remain curious,
    Catch

    Wall Street Week, recorded Dec. 24, 2021
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    Love the Roth for that reason - No RMD! Yogi says, “And they give ya real money… ” (not cheapened by taxes).
    Maybe remotely related … I’ve had decent luck with some tax-deferred money I withdrew 2 & 3 years ago and put in PRIHX. It scores poorly on M*, as I think they’re comparing it to longer dated muni funds. So far, volatility seems more in keeping with a short term or ultra-short bond fund. But, of course that could change. A gain of nearly 4.8% in 2021 on such a liquid, stable (and largely tax exempt) asset wasn’t hard to take.*
    *Footnote : The fund invests in below investment grade (junk) bonds and is subject to market risk!
    @Tarwheel - I hear ya. Third year of mask mandates about to begin. Makes air travel, concerts, plays, museums, etc. less than enticing - especially, I think, for us older folks. Don’t even think about overseas travel!
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    @BaluBalu,
    TANDX, ~10%
    ARTTX, ~5%
    FMSDX, ~5%
    PVCMX, ~5%
    I'm uber conservative...recognizing I have taken on "risk" by being way conservative past several years...still working, I didn't like being idle as I was "semi-retired" for ~ 18months...so live below my means.
    Do recognize I've been ok with this during the past several years but past year have taken it on the chin with "silent losses"...due to severe inflation which appears to be getting worse as we head into new year (grocery store, heating bill, conversations with supply chain/vendor mgr's...many taking double digit increases at the beginning on 2022)
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    From Ben Levisohn in this week’s Barron’s:
    “Worse still, despite (ARKK’s) fantastic gains since it was launched in 2014—it has returned more than 340%—its investors have been terrible market timers. They poured billions into the fund during 2020 and the beginning of 2021, driving its flow-weighted price to about $109, according to StoneX strategist Vincent Deluard, or nearly 13% above Thursday's close of $96.70.”
    “Up & Down Wall Street” / Barron’s - January 3, 2022
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    @rforno
    +1
    “ Investing should not be dogma; informed adaptability and agility are often good qualities to have.”
    As in all things, my friend!
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through December 2021, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
  • Inflation
    FWIW, the investment manager, IndexIQ appears to have thrown in the towel with respect to index construction.
    This fund currently tracks the IQ Real Return Index, developed by IndexIQ LLC. This index targeted a positive real return. The index is "based on the premise that capital market returns tend to be forward looking and anticipate economic developments including inflation expectations."
    Summary Prospectus
    However, as of Feb 28, the fund will track a different index, constructed by Bloomberg.
    the Fund will begin seeking investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield (before the Fund’s fees and expenses) of the Bloomberg IQ Multi-Asset Inflation Index (the “New Index”). ... Bloomberg Index Services Limited serves as the index provider for the New Index.
    The New Index seeks to provide investors with a hedge against the inflation rate by providing diversified exposure to assets that have historically exhibited positive sensitivity to the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1415995/000110465921150893/tm2135117-10_497.htm
    That sounds like a different, less ambitious objective (inflation hedge vs. positive real return) and a different approach (less psychic, more traditional). It also suggests the risk of high turnover early this year.
  • Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time?
    M* makes it easy to look up recent performance of the top 25 holdings. Or in the case of LLPFX, all 17 equity holdings. One can go to the M* legacy holdings page for a fund, get links for each of the top 25 holdings, click on those links and from thence the link for each security's immediately trailing returns.
    Legacy M* holdings page for LLPFX
    Figuring on around a half minute per holding, that's around a quarter hour. Still tedious, but manageable. Of course one would have to do this immediately following the period of interest since the easily available data are immediately trailing one week (and one month, etc.) returns.
    FWIW, looking at LLPFX, after August (i.e. recently) I don't see an 8% jump in a week. In a month, perhaps.
    The fund declined for most of Sept, hitting its nadir on Sept 21, then climbing 3% and giving most of it back by Sept 30th. From that point, the fund generally ascended, reaching an 8% increase on Nov 4th and topping out with a 10% gain in Nov 5th. From there the fund gave everything plus a little more back by Dec 1.
    From this new low point, the fund never climbed 8%. It did rise 7% by Dec 27th, where it effectively plateaued. So I took a quick look for holdings that climbed sharply over the month of December.
    MGM up 13%, H (Hyatt) up 22%, FFH (Fairfax Financial) up 10%, CNHI (CNH Industrial) up 19%, FDX (FedEx) up 13%.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    The estimable Professor Snowball wrote about ARKK in this month's 'Briefly Noted' commentary.
    "Despite a multitude of warnings, here at MFO, at Morningstar, and elsewhere, investors absolutely poured money into the ARKK Innovation ETF in December 2020 and January 2021. The warnings were pretty straightforward: (1) you can’t buy last year’s returns, so don’t let those sway your decisions, (2) ARK was wildly understaffed and inundated (net $20 billion in 2020) with dumb money, and (3) manager Cathy Woods has a consistent long-term boom-and-crash track record, with the boom having just occurred."
    "Good news for investors committing their money on December 1st: you’re only down 13% since then. Less good news for folks who made ARKK one of their New Years 2020 resolutions: you’re down 24%. Folks who gave shares as a Valentine’s Day present? They’re underwater by 39%."
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    TANDX has a transaction fee at the 4 brokerages I checked, so I would probably buy and hold the fund as well.
    TANDX portfolio manager's name is John CAREW. Hmmmmm.....
    I'm adding to WBALX in 2022, come what may.
    Fascinated by PVCMX, which I had toyed with - is it really still over 80% in cash? A super safety small cap play, great if you expect a massive "PE Compression" event ahead. You do pay 1.3% for their market timing selectivity.
  • It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future
    "On Oct. 15, 1929, the pre-eminent economist in the U.S., Irving Fisher of Yale University, captured headlines by declaring stocks had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.' That day, the Dow closed at 347.24. Less than two weeks later, the Crash of 1929 began. The Dow finally hit bedrock on July 8, 1932, at 41.22."
    "On Jan. 7, 1981, the popular technical analyst Joe Granville told his newsletter subscribers to 'sell everything.' The Dow, then about 1000, tumbled 3.9% in two days on then-record trading volume. In November 1985 he called for the Dow, then around 1400, to sink to "600 or lower" within six months. Instead the index shot above 1800."
    "In 2010, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a newsletter publisher and data service in Gainesville, Ga., called for the Dow (then around 10000) to fall below 1000 within six years. Six years later, the index was at roughly 18000."
    "This week, the book 'Dow 36,000' by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett turned out to be prophetic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average should hit that mark 'very quickly,' 'immediately,' even 'today,' the book had proclaimed. The book was published Oct. 1, 1999, when the Dow closed at 10273. More than 22 years later, the index very briefly crossed the mark at 9:42 a.m. on Monday, in a moment barely noticed by investors."
    Link
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    I enter 2022 as per below. I plan to increase positions in SFHYX, ARBIX, TRAIX, NTSX and start a position in SVARX
    Alts - 59%
    US Stocks - 18%
    US Bonds - 11%
    Intl Stocks - 5%
    Intl Bonds - 2%
    Cash - 5%
    Positions I hold in decreasing order of position size are
    PSLDX
    TRLGX
    JHEQX
    TRAIX
    I- bonds
    NTSX
    70/30 Domestic/Intl Blend Fund in 529 Account
    Guaranteed Tuition Fund
    BRUFX
    GISYX
    ARBIX
    SFHYX
    COMB
    MAFIX
    NICHX
    MFAIX
    APFDX
    VITSX
    BLNDX
  • the January MFO is live
    And it's not our last.
    I'm not a very good judge of what's interesting or useful, but one piece does try to draw lessons from the simple fact that Morningstar's mutual funds are not very good. Another walks through the best of the two-year-old funds, with a retrospective that suggests that our taste in funds isn't awful. We highlighted 10 two-year-olds in January 2019: 40% have been liquidated despite generally decent performance but another 40% are four- or five-star funds.
    Another looks at the Grandeur Peak launch, drawing on some of your comments to conclude that everybody might benefit from one GP fund but very few people need two.
    Hope you find something good there.
    Take care and be safe!
    David
  • Small-caps at all?
    Looking for some guidance here. As previously mentioned, I hold MSSMX and WAMCX and they have underperformed in 2021: 5.78 and 5.46. I noted @gk3105gklm comment about how he traded out of them as they are “ex champs”. Wondering what prompted that and when?
    Running MFO premium for CSMCX FCPGX MSSGX WAMCX and NEAGX and it’s clear that MFO also dropped my two funds to a 1 and 2 rating in 1 year performance. Side Note: Wouldn’t it be great to have MFO alert you when a fund in your watch list or port dropped in overall rating? Valueline did that. Would it be in time or advantageous?
    The rating drop was deserved based on this years performance. Sure. These two funds have highest risk in 1 and 3 year as well. 10 yr performance, MFO still doesn’t like MSSGX in terms of overall rating. It’s rated a 2 for 10 yr. I don’t recall that when I first evaluated. 20 year it’s a 5. FWIW: M* ratings based on past performance remain unchanged 5*.
    NEAGX is rated 5 for all periods. Wondering why this fund didn’t make my screening process. I’m still reviewing this.
    While I’m deciding whether to stay or make a change with these two funds, I’m equally as interested in learning how to better evaluate an exit or change. Not a momentum trader. “Consistent Underperformance” is somewhat subjective, no? Is that 1 year or 2 years if there’s been no change to mgmt or underlying fund strategy change. It could be what @BenWP said… just some bad choices in high flying small caps. What makes me confident that they will correct?
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    “Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now.
    We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.

    Although the 5 year average annual return (as of 12/31/20) for ARKK was 45.40%,
    it seems improbable that the fund will compound annually at ~40% over the next 5 years.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    ...ya...so in the past couple weeks I rec'd back about a 1/4 of my investment in IQDAX, Infinity Q fund...hopefully within the next 2 years after the lawyers and their firms get paid I get another 1/4 back...if I do, I'll consider myself lucky.
    Done learnt an expensive financial investing lesson as my hard lesson was monitized. Alledged fraud by the fund mgr who was "adjusting" the NAVs as he felt was appropriate. Alledgedly.
    I still think at the end of two years our, I will have taken less of a hair cut that this dumpster fire of a fund, ARKK etc. Someone commented several months ago, ya, at least Wood isn't a crook and if you lose money with her you lose it legit. True that but net, net, fraud, inexperience, marketing charlatan...your checking acccount and spending power doesn't know.
    If rates do go up, and personally I think Powell might try and then all kinds of volatility will happen, her funds will really get smacked...who sung the song..."you, ain't seen nothing yet"....BTO? Bachman Turner Overdrive...baby. baby....ya ain't seen nothin'yet....
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    Entering 2022 portfolio positioned as:
    TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund)
    ARTTX (Artisan Focus Fund)
    FMSDX (Fidelity Multi Asset Income Fund)
    PVCMX (Palm Valley Capital Fund)
    5 YR CDs laddered (3.25-3.55%)
    MMmkt (FDIC insured)
    IBonds - max amount
    Do like Tandem, you can look up archives at tandemadvisors.com, ~30% in cash, invests in companies that can grow, their Large Cap portfolio which is run similar to TANDX..."seeks to produce superior risk-adjusted returns, while minimizing volatility over a complete market cycle. Tandem’s investment philosophy requires that portfolio companies consistently grow both earnings and dividends. LCC differs from Tandem’s other strategies in that dividends must be paid to be included in LCC. Tandem believes dividend growth justified by earnings growth should allow stocks to perform well over time regardless of economic or market conditions. A proprietary semi-quantitative investment methodology is utilized to produce returns that experience less volatility than, and correlation to, the broader market."
    TANDX's lower volatility keeps me from janking in and out of the fund, regardless of what noise is in the markets that day.
    Like ARTTX as there is a strong thought of mine that there is NO WAY that Powell is going to raise rates...so I hold this fund...keep in mind during this recent Santa Claus rally, $126B was pumped in by Powell...ya really think he is concerned about inflation...jawboning or clown show? Dunno. This fund has proactive risk managment and invests in profitable companies with strong forecasted earnings growth.
    PVCMX holds a lot of cash but has shown during a "flush/drawdown" they know what to do and will act.
    Here's to a great, healthy, properous and joyful new year to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/cathie-wood-says-ark-soul-searching-as-once-stellar-funds-lag?sref=3zYETA5s
    The $17.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF has tumbled more than 20% this year, with several of its top holdings like electric-vehicle giant Tesla Inc. and video-streaming platform Roku Inc. down from their peaks. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index climbed about 24%.
    “I’ve never been in a market that is up -- has appreciated -- and our strategies are down,” Wood said in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg Television. “That has never happened before.”
    Wood says her funds are sticking to their plans even after the rough stretch, and that their models forecast big returns in the next half decade.
    “Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now. We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
    “When we go through a period like this, of course we are going through soul-searching, saying ‘are we missing something?’” she said, adding that in response, Ark has doubled down on its research and modeling.
    What does the good book say--pride cometh before...
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    +1 hank One of my former major holdings MERFX tried to outperform TMSRX on the downside...and failed , losing 0.19 ! I may have to use the Three Stooges to cover for MERFX - ADANX (which flatlined) ARBFX and BALPX. VARAX has a sales charge at Fidelity, naturally, so that's out ! I have some chronic pain issues or otherwise I would maintain a thread on event-driven funds.