Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • VANGUARD
    @Crash I feel your pain on this but allow me to offer a slightly different viewpoint. I use a password manager that is solid. One master password is all I have to remember. It keeps 100's of other passwords for me (I have more than 500) and they are all generated by the manager. I only have to remember one. HOWEVER... all of my banking and brokerages - I use 2 Factor authentication. So, if I log in to a bank or brokerage... I WANT a text verifying that it's me. This gives me the best of both worlds. I have the password manager to login to most of the sites that I use that require a login but my financial ones... I'm protected by the 2 factor authentication. Edit: And I use BRAVE as a browser. It's an ad blocker built in etc. So I know what you are trying to accomplish there.
  • VANGUARD
    Realizing this was posted a couple of months ago. @bee brings up some good points. However, I would almost always choose a direct transfer roll over to an IRA (and it could stay with Fidelity) over transferring to a new employer 401k or new/existing Fidelity 401k. An IRA offers you so much flexibility in fund choices that it almost always far outweighs most other considerations. This is especially true with Fidelity which has a lot of choices vs. other brokerages. The forbes link "12 reasons not to" contains so many reasons that are typically not applicable and also a fair amount of hyperbole. Given your needs and plans, a roll over to an IRA seems like a smart choice IMHO. I agree with @MSF on the choices comment.
  • Digital Assets
    Marketwatch story on the volatility of Bitcoin. The story was interesting (especially the table comparing bitcoin to gold and stocks etc). However, the first comment to the article by Larry Horowitz was also interesting and repeats what @bee said above about Fidelity creating a digital asset platform.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-sees-bear-market-skid-living-up-to-its-reputation-for-seismic-price-swings-11610391398?mod=home-page
    I confess - I don't own any bitcoin... but it doesnt stop me from being curious. I mean Michael Saylor of Microstrategies took $500M of cash from his companies balance sheet and invested it in Bitcoin because with inflation... it was costing him too much money by leaving it in the bank.
  • My basic screen. What's yours?
    I hope I'm posting this question in the right discussion. Here goes...
    Using Quick Search criteria:
    Category – Large-Cap Growth
    MFO Rating – 4-5 Above Average
    Display Period – 10 years
    I picked 3 random funds in the top APR
    FBGRX = 4 MFO Risk, 4 MFO Rating, 4.8 Ulcer, 3.91 Martin, -17.2 MAXDD, ER .79
    RYOCX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFO Rating, 4.1 Ulcer, 4.54 Martin, -17.4 MAXDD, ER 1.38
    LCGFX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFOR Rating, 4.0 Ulcer, 4.24 Martin, -17.6 MAXDD, ER .65
    All 3 of these funds apr is between 17.9 and 19.4. The criteria I listed above is very close to one another except perhaps for the ER in RYOCX. So, how would you go about using MFO to pick the best 1 of the 3. What other criteria is absolutely critical to you within MFO Premium to select the best fund in the category?
    Notice that I chose Large Cap Growth on purpose. I’m just trying to understand how I will use MFO premium and what criteria you all use from it. @Sven just pointed out that the Asset Correlation is important as I'm trying to refine my portfolio to be balanced and diversified. Asset correlation is contained in premium per sven.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @JonGaltIII True. I think 2021 will be even juicier. Looking out into the future, whenever things start to get back to "normal," I'd say the best way to reduce stimulus is gradually, over a pretty long period of time. ... Grantham sounds VERY smart to me, but for years, he has sounded dour and negative, as if a Big, Bad Thing is going to happen--- maybe soon or maybe later on.
    ..... Which is to say: we are "condemned" to live in the world of our own making. And what's new or noteworthy about THAT, eh?
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @Sven thanks for a great explanation. Makes complete sense. It's interesting because for the Buy and Hold investor that invests in let's say just Index Funds or the S&P 500 with a 10 year or more horizon... they can lose sleep too. If they jump off the roller coaster, they lock in their loss as you say. So, basically what you are saying and others at MFO ... the goal is to invest in funds with more consistent returns over longer periods of time? A lower drawdown number would certainly be part of that volatility equation.
    That is my ultimate goal anyway: Find funds that consistently beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time with the less volatility, same or a tad more. This is a difficult task. Of course, by choosing "longer periods of time"... I miss out on the Grandeur Peak Global's that may be terrific over the short term (and it looks like they are) but I just need a bit more history. Does this make sense?
    @Crash I think you are absolutely right re: juicing the economy. So, if you follow that logic - don't you think 2021 will be even juicier? I can't see Yellen and team providing less stimulus and monkeying with rates too much. Grantham BTW says "“This bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios,” in his book.
  • Emerald Small Cap Value Fund change in liquidation date
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421000510/fp0061082_497.htm
    497 1 fp0061082_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Emerald Small Cap Value Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 11, 2021
    to the Fund’s
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated August 31, 2020, as supplemented
    As previously disclosed, on December 8, 2020, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, a series of the Trust, determined to close and liquidate the Fund on or about January 11, 2021. The date for such liquidation is now expected to be on or about January 29, 2021 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    It is interesting to observe balanced funds during this phase in the business cycle. Within the M* 50-70% equity category the risk level an investor assumes can vary widely. It tips the hand of the fund's perception of risk vs reward. M* produces data showing 2016-2020 Historical Equity trends. Some Balanced funds have assumed more equity exposure at stock market highs after a decade + long bull market. These funds sit at 66% up to 70%+ equities. Others funds have reduced equities from 2016-2020 protecting investors from a possible downturn (less than 60% equity). Totally opposite viewpoints of the same market. Extreme examples of two within 50-70 are BRUFX and BALFX. This wide descrepancy is obviously going to produce much different CAGR, SD and MDraw going forward. To each his own.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @JonGaltIII,
    Drawdown has considerable impact on future returns. Let me try to explain this with some calculation.
    Let say you lost 10% in fund A in 2020. An amount of $100 investment is reduced to $90.
    100 X (1-0.1) = 90
    In order to regain the $10 lost, you must gain 11% in 2021 (not merely 10%).
    100 = (1+X)*90 (original 2020 value) and solve for X. X is the percentage gain required for 2021.
    X = 0.11 or 11%
    Therefore the deeper the "hole" or drawdown is, the larger % gain is required and often longer duration to fully recover the loss. Case in point, S&P 500 index lost 40+% in 2008, and it took 53 months to fully recover and many investors can't handle the pain or patience to wait it out. Many cut their loss and sell near the bottom which is the worst outcome as the investors now lock-in the loss permanently. Therefore the magnitude of drawdown has a significant psychological effect that often lead to panic selling. The key here is minimize the drawdown while balancing a reasonable return. Thus a well balanced portfolio with the right asset allocation will likely to have a much smaller drawdown in a down market. This would allow the investors to sleep well.
    There are many very useful tools in MFO Premium site that allow one to compare fund candidates with respective to their drawdown %, recovery period, and annual return for various market cycles. And I am barely scratching the surface of Premium capabilities.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this very productive tread. Yes, 2020 was a rough one as many of us survived while earned a few bucks. 2021 will be different again. Stay safe.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    @davidmoran: You had company when you did some selling in the spring. I, too, predicted that the pandemic would cripple the economy and the markets. Had I done nothing, my assets would have weathered the storm. I sold a mid-cap value fund in my retirement account that subsequently recovered beautifully. Now value is all the rage.
    FWIIW, I also predicted (to no one except the other person who inhabits my head) that DT's election in 2016 would cause markets to tumble. Moral: retirees have too much time to worry and they make mistakes.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Year-end portfolio tinkering.
    Me thinks perhaps the market forces the Fed unleashed in March 2020 will continue to play out in 2021 as vaccines get distributed. With that in mind, a couple of "exotic" funds were added to the fund portfolio.
    Bond Pot: Added SVARX. Sold PFOAX. Pot includes PTIAX, PONAX, RCTIX, SVARX, IOFIX. IOFIX will probably be eliminated as it continues to recover in 2021 (replace with GIBLX or ?).
    Mixed I Pot: Added GBLMX. Sold HBLAX. Pot includes VWINX, GBLMX, DHHIX, PFANX, TRECX.
    I've got some PONAX but expenses keep rising and the fund seems to be struggling since the management changes. I have LBNDX on my radard to replace my PONAX. That said, both LBNDX anda GIBLX (better longer term) have really high turnover rates.
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    Sven said: "Overall the 60/40 allocation provides the best balance on return versus risk. However this is my personal opinion but every investors need to evaluate their own risk tolerance with respect to the return."
    Thanks for your analysis, Sven.
    As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I am in the same boat as another poster who once said on another forum : "I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution."
    It's in that spirit that I recently started looking at options-based strategies, particularly at a time of very elevated equity valuations, a raging pandemic, high unemployment and very high public debt levels.
    Hence, the question for me became: How do I stay invested in the equity market but mitigate risk? Traditionally one would de-risk once portfolio with investment grade fixed income instruments, but today, with very low and seemingly rising interest rates, that is no longer quite as risk-free a strategy as in the past.
    As you rightly said, " [...] every investors need to evaluate their own risk tolerance with respect to the return". At this stage of my life, where a good night's sleep is a high priority, an options based fund like JHQAX or DRSK for a portion of my portfolio may fit my personal risk/reward parameters better than a balanced fund. Due to high debt levels, inflation may be around the corner and in an increasing interest rate environment, the fixed income part of a conventional balanced fund may be a drag on its total return in 2021 and beyond.
    Good luck, and thanks, again,
    Fred
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    ... can understand where you are coming from. If I panicked in March 2020, I would have missed out on a huge finish to 2020. I know we can't time the market ...
    I did not panic, I trust, and was not trying to time, in the usual sense. By May 11 all of our equity fund holdings were back to breakeven or abovewater (except for FRIFX, not a huge portion). I projected that this plague was going to be much worse and longer-lived than most were saying, which has turned out to be the case. (I'd lost to covid at end March my oldest college friend, of 55y nonstop acquaintance, healthy etc. --- a jarring, sudden-enough death.) I believed the economic impact was going to be much worse than predicted, including crippled consumer spending. Turned out to be only partly the case; certainly the latter did not occur. All this thinking of mine was informed by extensive reading and some crude numbercrunching. I thought if we could avoid a >20% monthslong / yearslong drop in this early stage of our retirement we would be better off. So as with so much in life I regret it only in hindsight.
    I can however guarantee that right after I get back in the really big broad market drops will occur, without fail.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    Ok... I somehow can't take my eyes off the drawdown on those sectors. So, given that, what is the takeaway? Because from various articles, energy and financials and small and mid caps along with emerging markets are supposed to be the 2021 winners. Is that because the drawdowns were so large in 2020? Still learning about drawdowns and why they are so important.
    I'm not a professional, but I can understand your question. It seems to me that current (magnificent!) Market returns are due to the fact that stocks and bonds are utterly disconnected from "fundamentals." Governments everywhere have been busy "juicing" their economies due to the pandemic. Prior to the Covid thing, there was the "stimulus" to grease the gears again, following the Real Estate bubble and Crash back in 2008-09. I don't think all of that stimulus had ever been removed, since then. So, paraphrasing from something I read here a while ago: "The Markets are on a Methamphetamine bender." And when "ordinary," established big names do very well, they normally drag the small-caps and EM along with them. This is when those other sectors outperform.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    Ok... I somehow can't take my eyes off the drawdown on those sectors. So, given that, what is the takeaway? Because from various articles, energy and financials and small and mid caps along with emerging markets are supposed to be the 2021 winners. Is that because the drawdowns were so large in 2020? Still learning about drawdowns and why they are so important.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    None, none, none.
    This perplexing scenario to witness I have discussed in the briefest of ways w the august LBraham and JWaggoner, meaning exchanging a few rueful wtf words, and they list the usual suspects, chiefly fomo w tina (per the ongoing likely course of interest rates, mentioned above, plus new and ongoing disaster relief payments).
    Plus a certain amount of rich-millennial behaviors (robinhood etc.).
    But these ain't insights, really, nor is saying that this time some of it 'really is different' (permanent shift in p/e).
    Also, these handful of factors many people have been pointing out for a long time.
    I have been out of equities 100% since May 11, when nobody saw a 30% rise still ahead, of course.
    Now. A real and significant dip takes us back to only say 28k Dow, a defined bear market back to only ~25k. It was not long ago at all that more than one big investment house were saying Well, okay, when we slump into the 26k area or whatever, it will be time to buy aggressively.
    Anyway, greed stamina, and fundamentals, being what they are, that ain't happening. There has been a lasting shift upward, and no 2000 or 2009 ahead. CWood at Ark and others like her have started to write about the chronic underestimation of technology.
    So ... upon dips I intend (he said) to put lots into VONV (p/e ~27) and CAPE and then sit tight (he said) for a few years. At ages 72 and 74 soon, we have enough years of cash for us to manage, looks like.
    All very vexing, and if I had stayed the course in May we could be sending out so many more donations!
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Warning: Investors need to understand their individual circumstances and their volatility and risk tolerances.....
    FWIW....Most of the time I just observe. Market timing is left to others. (2019 to 2020 were exceptions to this observer mind set while a new secondary investment portfolio was being established.)
    These are just a few somewhat random thoughts and opinions as 2021 begins from a generalist investor who typically acts with multi-year investment time frames:
    ***Its important to acknowledge the stock market is very expensive by historical measures -- particularly on the growth side. The articles linked above make that clear.
    But...
    ***The Fed is now part of the investment landscape in ways it was not in the past. That hit home to me in early 2019 when the Fed abandoned its rate tightening efforts ( Powell Put ).
    ***The Fed further clarified the breadth of the Powell Put by acting very aggressively last winter when the markets were in turmoil. It has also suggested it will intervene aggressively if market turmoil erupts again in the near term.
    ***Having Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary will probably increase coordination between the Fed and Treasury.
    ***Having the Democrats in charge probably means additional fiscal stimulus will occur this year.
    ***The pandemic will probably have a significant ongoing disruptive economic impact for much/most of this year. The probable shape of the post-pandemic investment landscape may not come into focus until late this year or next year.
    My investment portfolio thinking:
    The combination of near zero interest rates, the Feds aggressive stance, and substantial fiscal stimulus helped me to decide to leave my allocation to stocks somewhat elevated by my standards when the annual review was completed in December (strong stock market performance and a shift of about 5% of the portfolio from ZEOIX to utility stocks in August had bumped it up during 2020). But, a nod to uncertainty resulted in the purchase of GBLMX, CRAAX, and SVARX as well as some trimming of growth stock holdings during the transition from 2020 to 2021.
    Now I am just watching while keeping my eye on VIX out of curiosity. My crystal ball is still quite unclear about how long the Fed/fiscal stimulus part of the equation will succeed in keeping the bulls mostly in charge of the stock market. Maybe for multiple years if the Fed and fiscal policy makers navigate well??? But, maybe Grantham will prove to have been correct and the profitably investable top occurred last summer!!!
    Other portfolio notes:
    ***There is adequate cash in reserve (SPAXX, JPST, and RPHYX) and enough investments in bond funds to enable an investment portfolio reallocation into stocks if a significant (20%+) market decline occurs.
    ***I am a 70 year old retiree. The dividends, distributions, and any capital gains received during the year are invested separately in the "Cash Pot" for release to a non-investment account at the end of the year. So, the set-aside beginning this month is for probable release at the end of 2021. But, there are adequate reserves outside the investment accounts to ride out an investment apocalypse event if that occurs during the year.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    @JonGaltill, our own contributor to the monthly commentary, Lynn Bolin provided many insightful articles on preparing for retirement. Here is one from January 2021.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2021/01/as-i-age/
    Charles also writes for Seeking Alpha, another good resource to inform yourself in prepare for another black swan events. If you did well during March 2020's drawdown, you are on the right track on your asset allocation.
    @davfor and davidmoran,
    Any insights on this bullishness?
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    While JHQAX perked an interest in MFO discussion, it is important to assess how JHQAX performed in 2020 relative to its peers with respect to their returns and risk. As @fred495 noted that the fund uses an options strategy for the past seven years. The fund is categorized as “Alternative long/short” fund in MFO Premium.
    I compared this fund to Vanguard S&P 500 index (VFIAX) as the proxy for S&P500 index without the option strategy for 2020. The option strategy enabled lower drawdown in March, -5.1% versus -19.5%, respectively, and having a shorter recovery period, 3 months versus 4 months, respectively.
    However, this lower volatility is accomplished at the expense of the annual return as the market recovered in July; the S&P 500 index out-performed JHQAX, 18.4% versus 13.8% by year end. Question I ask myself is this an apple-to-apple comparison?
    I also took this analysis further to over the 7 year period since the inception of JHQAX (2014). I also include Vanguard Balanced index fund, VBIAX to see if 40% total bond allocation would work better or not than the option strategy.
    Here is the result in Portfolio Visualizer,
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
    1. JHQAX has the lowest drawdown ratio and comparable Sortino ratio to VBIAX.
    2. JHQAX trails the annal returns of VFIAX and VBIAX for 1,3,5 and 7 years period.
    3. The negative asset correlation of bond performed better than the option strategy over this 7 year period.
    4. Overall the 60/40 allocation provides the best balance on return versus risk. However this is my personal opinion but every investors need to evaluate their own risk tolerance with respect to the return.