@FD1000 If so, prove it using primary sources. Here's another article making the same claim regarding the price return:
https://thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-1929-causes-effects-and-facts-3305891
If you have direct access to daily Dow Jones price data from the market peak in 1929 to its nadir and recovery, please show it to us.

@FD1000 That "Large Cap Blend" category data is also wrong for that period of history because it can not include survivor bias of all the funds that went out of business that far back and there were many. Of the ones that did survive__ MFS Massachusetts Investors Fund (MITTX) 1924.
Putnam Investors Fund (PINVX) 1925.
Pioneer Fund (PIODX) 1928.
Century Shares Fund (CENSX) 1928.--I suspect they must have had bonds in their portfolio for that. Dividends I'm sure helped but who would have the mental fortitude amd/or financial wherewithal to reinvest in the market when it falls like that? In other words, the data you're providing shows large-cap blend funds falling about 55% when the market fell 89%. That cannot be correct for a pure stock portfolio even if you factor in dividends, which I believe peaked at 14% during the Depression.

The above has nothing to do with your post "The price of blue chip stocks declined, but there was more pain in small-cap and speculative stocks, many of which declared bankruptcy and were delisted from the market. It was not until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow reached its previous peak of 381.17."
These numbers for the DOW were way off. I'm not surprised the 24/7 media is all about making headlines for you to read and how they get paid.
Almost every day you hear the DOW is up/down triple-digit because 0.8% isn't selling news.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000168386320003065/f3426d1.htm
97 1 f3426d1.htm 497
Janus Investment Fund
Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund
Supplement dated April 14, 2020
to Currently Effective Prospectuses
Effective immediately, the prospectuses for Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund (the “Fund”) are amended as follows:
1.Under “Management” in the Fund Summary section of the Fund’s prospectuses, the following paragraph replaces the corresponding paragraph in its entirety:
Portfolio Managers: Theodore M. Thome, CFA, is Portfolio Manager of the equity portion of the Fund, which he has managed or co-managed since July 2010. John Kerschner, CFA, is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018. John Lloyd is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018. Seth Meyer, CFA, is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018.
2.Under “Investment Personnel” in the Management of the Funds section of the Fund’s prospectuses, the following information replaces the corresponding information in its entirety:
Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund
Equity Investments
Theodore M. Thome, CFA, is Co-Portfolio Manager of Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund, which he has co-managed since July 2010. He joined Perkins in September 2002 as a research analyst covering the healthcare industry. Mr. Thome holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Life Science from the United States Military Academy at West Point and a Master of Business Administration with concentrations in finance and accounting from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Mr. Thome holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Effective immediately, all references to Alec Perkins are deleted from the Fund’s prospectuses.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1657267/000089418920002691/millerhowardfundstrust497e.htm
497 1 millerhowardfundstrust497e.htm 497E
Miller/Howard Income-Equity Fund
Class Ticker Symbol
Class I MHIEX
Adviser Share Class MHIDX
(A series of Miller/Howard Funds Trust)
Supplement dated April 14, 2020 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and
Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated February 28, 2020
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Based upon a recommendation by MHI Funds, LLC (the “Adviser”), the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Miller/Howard Funds Trust (the “Trust”) has approved a plan of liquidation for the Miller/Howard Income-Equity Fund (the “Fund”) as a series of the Trust, pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated on or around June 15, 2020 (the “Liquidation” or the “Liquidation Date”). The Adviser has determined that the Fund has limited prospects for meaningful growth. As a result, the Adviser and the Board believe that the Liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of shareholders.
In anticipation of the Liquidation, effective as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (“close of business”) on April 14, 2020, the Fund will be closed to new investments. In addition, effective April 15, 2020, the Adviser may begin an orderly transition of the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund may cease investing its assets in accordance with its investment objective and policies.
Shareholders may voluntarily redeem shares of the Fund, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus, before the Liquidation Date. Shareholders remaining in the Fund just prior to the Liquidation Date may bear increased transaction fees in connection with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings. If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction by the close of business on June 15, 2020, your shares will be automatically redeemed on the Liquidation Date. Shareholders will receive a liquidating distribution in an amount equal to the net asset value of their Fund shares, less any required withholding. For shareholders that hold their shares in a taxable account, the redemption of Fund shares will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., a sale that may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Your net cash proceeds from the Fund, less any required withholding, will be sent to the address of record.
If you hold your shares in an individual retirement account (an “IRA”), you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA in order to maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent at 1-845-684-5730 prior to June 15, 2020 of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you. Checks will be issued to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date.
Please contact the Fund at 1-845-684-5730 if you have any questions.
This supplement should be retained with your Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI for future reference.

From the author:
"The stock market has declined by 25% or more on 11 occasions since 1871. The median recovery time from this point has been 1.8 years.
Investors who shifted to cash after the 1929 crash faced a 34-year wait to break even, compared with 15 years for those who remained invested and less than 7 years for those who drip-fed additional small amounts in.
A “dash for cash” in 2001 and 2008 would still have left investors out of pocket today"
I would add that one needs to be aware of their own investment time horizon.
https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/downturns-this-deep-can-take-a-long-time-to-recover-from-financially-and-mentally/

Hi @MikeM,
I'm thinking there are ways a retired investor, like myself, can manage their portfolio through troubling times and still over time come out ahead. No doubt, you have been exploring ideas and thoughts as to how you might better govern. I'm by no means throwing cold water on your idea. I encourage you if you feel this is a better way for you to govern then back test your idea. This might not be as hard as you think. You know where you stand with current positions and your portfolio's performance. Now, all you have to do is figure out how your portfolio would have performed if it was configured based upon the sell stop orders on the proposed selected etf's incorporated within the portfolio.
For me, I'm still with my multi fund sleeve management system and using my operating base asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity which in order to play the anticipated rebound from the recent downdraft I have moved to a temporary allocation of 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity with a rebalance threshold set at +(or -) 2% from the neutral weightings. Thus far, I'm performing pretty much like a conservative asset allocation fund. As I write, I am now down less than 10% from my 52 week high and my portfolio is generating a good income stream. I plan to let my overweight equity allocation (now at 48%) run until my barometer scores the S&P 500 Index as overbought.
A fund that many like on the board, but I do not own, is VWINX. It is down ytd -3.84% with a five year average retrun of +5.24% with a yield of 3.1%. For me, come June when CFTAX makes it's mid year distribution ... I'm going to increase my position in it as I have a CD maturing towards the end of May. CTFAX ytd is up 6.55% with a five year return of 5.71%. It generates its distributions from both its bond positions along with capital gain distributions coming mostly from moving in and out of stock positions. You might wish to study this fund because it uses a similar strategy as to what you have described; but with a little different twist.
Best of luck to you. I'm sure you will come up with something tailored to fit your style of investing.
Skeet

For readers and STB65. The gross expense charge is 2.02% but part of he fee has been waived and the current net fee is 1.25%.

@FD100, but what the idea is is to stay invested in a diversified balanced portfolio through the good years and exit automatically when a black swan event unexpectedly pushes you into some place you don't want to be, 20-25% loss. I don't think many retirees want to take more than a 10-15% loss on retirement money in an unexpected occurrence. With minimizing the loss you may not have any long term affect on your life style.
I agree though that if done, it should be a % of the total. But maybe a substantial %.

@Old_Skeet That article factors deflation into the equation, which I also feel is cheating in certain respects, too. The assumption is well everything is cheaper, therefore it only took X for the market, which is also cheaper, to recover. But If you had a 100k portfolios that fell to 50k but so did the CPI so everything was 50% cheaper, this article would have it that you broke even. While a valuable exercise in the abstract, I want to know how long it took to recover without this inflation/deflation legerdemain.

According to this NYT article that I have linked below it took only 4.5 years for the stock market to recover from the 1928 stock market crash. It goes on to say that the average investor recovered by mid 1932.
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html

Interesting slide from JP Morgan on the present valuations of US equities:
https://screencast.com/t/9j06Z89K5D

Acutely painful to watch.
https://twitter.com/alphaarchitect/status/1249705104795750400?s=20
or
https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/04/13/compound-your-knowledge-ep-28-bond-etf-discussion-with-jon-seed/

Hi @bee and @sma3
Bee, I recall you've long been aware of the possibilities of using EDV or related. Thank you for the link.
I place the below again from a March 20 post.
A few views from bondland:
DAY(March 20) / WEEK / YTD
--- MINT = -1% / -3.6% / -4.1% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
--- SHY = +.27% /+.24% / +2.5% (1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +1.2% /+.7% /+5.2% (3-7 yr notes)
--- IEF = +2.6% /+1.5% /+8.4% (7-10 yr notes)
--- TLT = +7.5% / +3.6% /+18.1% (20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +7.15% / -.23% / +19.8% (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
--- ZROZ = +8.93% /+2.27% /+22.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
***Other:
--- HYG = -2.24% / -12.9 / -20% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = +1.6% / -13.25% / -16.2% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- LTPZ = +12.3% /+4.3% / +3.5% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
I had also previously noted that EDV, TLT and ZROZ can be very hot potatoes to manage and require a close watch and what may adjust their directions.
***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****
Henry David Thoreau
I personally adjust this, for investments, to; it matters to me where I look, as I want to "see" actions of other areas where I may never invest; but need to know the actions.
Take care,
Catch

While the 70's stock market did not drop as much as the Great Depression market, it did creep to an end with Business Week proclaiming the death of equities, before bottoming out at a PE ratio of 6.68 later that year. If you had invested near the peak in 1961 you would have had to wait until 1991 to see that peak again.
If you invested in December 1894 you would have died before seeing that peak again.
We don't hear much talk of capitulation. Everyone is looking to buy the dip.
As of the last close, the PE sits at 20.59. Today, M* is claiming that the tech sector is "decently undervalued." The PE for the NASDAQ 100, perhaps not the best proxy, is roughly 22.09.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings keeps coming to mind. Especially the first and last stanzas.
AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
[ellipses]
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
Seems to me that the Fed is now dead set on making sure no one dies for their sins of leverage in the market place.
A less sanguinary description might be found in the last stage of Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.

@FD1000 That "Large Cap Blend" category data is also wrong for that period of history because it can not include survivor bias of all the funds that went out of business that far back and there were many. Of the ones that did survive__ MFS Massachusetts Investors Fund (MITTX) 1924.
Putnam Investors Fund (PINVX) 1925.
Pioneer Fund (PIODX) 1928.
Century Shares Fund (CENSX) 1928.--I suspect they must have had bonds in their portfolio for that. Dividends I'm sure helped but who would have the mental fortitude amd/or financial wherewithal to reinvest in the market when it falls like that? In other words, the data you're providing shows large-cap blend funds falling about 55% when the market fell 89%. That cannot be correct for a pure stock portfolio even if you factor in dividends, which I believe peaked at 14% during the Depression.

@LewisBraham, I know that VWELX is not the SP500 and why I posted and included in the chart LC blend which is close to the SP500. I don't know many funds with history all the way to 1929 and M* chart includes dist.
One thing I'm sure we will not experience 1929 again because the Fed learned an important lesson but it's great to mention it as a selling point and why the media mentioned the Spanish FLU too.

A read I came across:
Fed's Kashkari paints gloomy view of coronavirus economic recovery
feds-kashkari-paints-gloomy-view-of-coronavirus-economic-recovery?

The usual, doom and gloom sell better and why you see a lot more headlines like that. Simple example: the DOW declined 200 points or triple digits, why not say 0.8%? because it's not catchy.
"It was not until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow reached its previous peak of 381.17."...that is another claim far from the truth. You must include distributions. See a (chart) of VWELX + LC blend since 1929

I am assuming by the tenor of the replies here most people believe the author of the initial article in Foreign Policy is wrong. Otherwise, why would one be in stocks at all? If this author is right regarding unemployment, GDP growth, etc., this will be worse than the Great Depression. Here's what Investopedia has stat wise regarding the Depression:https://investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp

Before this crash, which ruined both corporate and individual wealth, the stock market peaked on Sept. 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 381.17. The ultimate bottom was reached on July 8, 1932, where the Dow stood at 41.22. From peak to trough, this was a loss of 89.19%.
The price of blue chip stocks declined, but there was more pain in small-cap and speculative stocks, many of which declared bankruptcy and were delisted from the market. It was not until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow reached its previous peak of 381.17.

As I've said in previous posts, every day is different, but unemployment, GDP, earnings from the previous two, etc, have driven stocks in the past. If this author is right, then there really is no point in owning stocks at all. Declines like the Depression are unlike anything most investors have experienced in their lifetimes, and taking 25 years to recover exceeds most people's investment time horizons. It is far worse than what happened in the 1970s as referenced in other posts. So, I am hoping he's wrong. And I think there is evidence he could be.

I remember Cinnamon very well from years ago. His fund looked good when the market crashed and then it looks pretty bad. How long can a high % in cash works?
The following is from the last report. As expected PVCMX had over 92% in cash on 1/1/2020 and probably in 2019 too.
The Palm Valley Capital Fund gained 0.79% for the quarter ending March 31, 2020, while the S&P Small Cap 600 and the Morningstar Small Cap Indexes lost 32.65% and 31.61%, respectively. The Fund began the quarter with 92.4% of its assets held in cash and equivalents and ended the period with 52.0% cash.
I will pass on this fund..."fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me."