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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Recommends Investors Increase Non-U.S. Holdings To 40%
    According to a recent (year end) broker provided portfolio analysis Old_Skeet has a domestic/foreign asset allocation ratio of about 75% domestic and 25% foreign. The broker recommended foreign exposure for my risk tolerance ranges form a low of 15% to a high of 30%. With this, I fall a little above the middle of what they recommend. In review of my year end Morningstar Xray analysis reflects much the same domestic/foreign allocation. I am happy with my current level of foreign exposure so I plan to make no changes.
  • Vanguard Recommends Investors Increase Non-U.S. Holdings To 40%
    This is not John Bogle's Vanguard:
    "I say you don't need to have non-U.S., but if you do, limit it to 20%. A lot of portfolios now have 25%, 35%, 45% in non-U.S. securities, and I think that's just too much."
    Morningstar, Oct 16, 2018, Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks
    https://www.morningstar.com/videos/885739/why-jack-bogle-doesnt-own-nonus-stocks.html
    FWIW, I disagree with Bogle and maintain a healthy exposure to foreign markets.
  • IRS Will Pay Refunds During Government Shutdown, Official Says
    "The last three weeks have exposed the lack of empathy of a billionaire President who shrugs off the struggles of federal workers who work paycheck to paycheck. Trump is clearly more concerned about a pet political project than his constitutional role of providing governance to all Americans. The House and Senate this week voted overwhelmingly to provide back pay to about 800,000 federal workers who are going without paychecks because of the partial government shutdown. But seven lawmakers — all House Republicans — opposed the measure. Those "no" votes came from Reps. Justin Amash (Mich.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Glen Grothman (Wis.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Chip Roy (Texas) and Ted Yoho (Fla.). Another GOP Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said a government shutdown would not truly impact employees and scoffed at the idea that a federal worker would need their next paycheck to make ends meet. The GOP and Trump have lost touch with everyday people! Nearly 80 percent of American workers (78 percent) say they're living paycheck to paycheck." - Alt National Park Service
    And this:
    The government shutdown spotlights a bigger issue: 78% of US workers live paycheck to paycheck.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/shutdown-highlights-that-4-in-5-us-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html
    They should all move.
  • The Best Stock Funds For Risky Markets
    FYI: This could be the year of the worrywarts. The recent ugliness in the market suggests that investors are becoming more sensitive to the risks building in the economy—including rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and political turmoil.
    Fund managers who invest with an eye toward risk could look better than they have in years. Their funds have not necessarily sparkled during the nine-year bull market, when investors rushed headlong into riskier parts of the market and distinguishing between stocks didn’t pay off much—one reason passive funds have done so well.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-best-stock-funds-for-risky-markets-51547156975?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine
  • Vanguard Recommends Investors Increase Non-U.S. Holdings To 40%
    FYI: Investors should put about 40% of their portfolios in non-U.S. stocks and bonds to diversify their holdings, according to top executives at Vanguard Group, the fund giant that manages $4.9 trillion.
    Global stock markets are likely to outperform the U.S., which the firm expects to return roughly 4% to 6% annually over the coming decade, CEO Tim Buckley and chief investment officer Greg Davis said Thursday during a webcast.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Vanguard+recommends+investors+increase+non-U.S.+holdings+to+40%&tbm=nws&source=univ&tbo=u&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiboPHco-jfAhUB4IMKHVdmDnQQt8YBKAF6BAgAEAo&biw=1200&bih=552
  • IRS Will Pay Refunds During Government Shutdown, Official Says
    What are you so worried about? Here's a real life example: one person with a big utility bill that's going unpaid due to the shutdown, and the utility company is just letting it slide.
    $5M water bill, at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington, DC.
    https://wamu.org/story/19/01/08/the-feds-didnt-pay-their-5-million-water-bill-can-d-c-shut-off-water-to-the-white-house/
  • Perritt Low Priced Stock Fund to be reorganized
    Updated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1286087/000089706919000021/cmw34.htm
    497 1 cmw34.htm
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    1933 Act File No. 333-114371
    1940 Act File No. 811-21556
    Perritt Funds, Inc.
    Perritt MicroCap Opportunities Fund (PRCGX)
    Perritt Low Priced Stock Fund (PLOWX)
    January 11, 2019
    Supplement dated January 11, 2019 to the
    Statutory Prospectus dated February 28, 2018, as Supplemented
    Fund Reorganization
    We are pleased to announce that on January 4, 2019, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Perritt Funds, Inc. (the "Company") approved: (1) a plan of reorganization pursuant to which the Perritt Low Priced Stock Fund (the "Low Priced Stock Fund") will be reorganized into the Perritt MicroCap Opportunities Fund (the "MicroCap Opportunities Fund") (each, a "Fund," and together, the "Funds"); and (2) the subsequent liquidation and dissolution of the Low Priced Stock Fund, effective on or about February 22, 2019. The reorganization, which is expected to be tax free to the shareholders of the Low Priced Stock Fund and is subject to customary closing conditions, will be effected by transferring of all of the assets and liabilities of the Low Priced Stock Fund to the MicroCap Opportunities Fund in exchange for shares of the MicroCap Opportunities Fund, with the shares being distributed pro rata by the Low Priced Stock Fund to its shareholders. The Low Priced Stock Fund will then be liquidated and dissolved. The reorganization is expected to occur on or about February 22, 2019. In accordance with applicable regulatory requirements, shareholder approval is not required for the reorganization, and shareholders are not being asked to approve the reorganization.
    The Low Priced Stock Fund's portfolio manager will continue to manage the Low Priced Stock Fund in the ordinary course.
    Existing shareholders may redeem or exchange shares of the Low Priced Stock Fund in the ordinary course until the close of business on February 22, 2019. The Low Priced Stock Fund will be closed to new purchases, whether into current accounts or new accounts, as of the close of business on Thursday, February 14, 2019.
    The Funds have filed an information statement and prospectus as part of a Registration Statement on Form N-14 with the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with the reorganization. The information statement and prospectus will be sent to shareholders of the Low Priced Stock Fund. Shareholders are urged to read the definitive information statement and prospectus because it will contain important information about the reorganization, including the Board's reasons for approving the reorganization. The information statement and prospectus may be obtained free of charge from the SEC's website at www.sec.gov or by calling 1-800-332-3133 (toll free).
    ***
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Hey, bondland; what ya do'in ???
    @davidrmoran, just curious as to what you are thinking. Why an ultra short bond fund when you can get about 50% higher yield with a 1 year CD, with less risk?
  • Hey, bondland; what ya do'in ???
    Bought Fbnd recently for mama portfolio.. She is getting ready retire can't take big risks...
    I bought Verizon bond few days ago yield 7.5 Ytm7. 5%. many funds etf hold this bond.... 852060at9 cusip although junk rating... Watch it very closely
  • Hey, bondland; what ya do'in ???
    U.S. equity category returns range from +3.7 through +7.4% based on Jan. 10 data.
    Just some data here. One may choose their own overview of where money is traveling and why.
    >>>This chart contains the "golden cross" indicator. I'm not concerned about the names, only the LINES. So who is buying, eh???
    IEF ETF (7-10 year T-notes) 6 month chart
    >>>This chart would fall into the "death cross" mode, if this was price based. Keep in mind when viewing, this graphic represents YIELD. The 50 day continues to fall below the 100 and 200 day yield averages.
    U.S. 10 year yield, 3 month view
    Folks are buy'in U.S. corporate bonds, too.
    LQD, 6 month chart
    And now back to higher volume with Pink Floyd playing in the background.
    Hey, have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    Zweig ( working with Ned Davis ) was an early pioneer of quantitative analysis. Yet, most analysis since the 1980's has been weak as the main thrust and profit center of finance has been the acquisition of assets under management with associated fees garnered ( ie incentive towards quant analysis with an eye towards generating alpha is way down on the agenda ).
    An important premise to keep in mind is to hold equity based assets for longest optimal periods. Once in a great while, a switch to duration assets for a short period may occur ( 20% of the time) . https://tinyurl.com/yadh6tsq
    Returns after larg(est) quarterly market losses ( of which 4th quarter 2018 was one), accompanied by a cross of the S&P 500 above its long period moving average ( pending ), has had a stellar track record with above average returns produced over future 1, 2, and 5 year cum returns periods: https://imgur.com/a/Eoj26AS
    Zwieg signal may or may not have accompanied these post quarterly loss events.
    Thanks for the data you presented. I have always been a fan of Ned Davis too. And remember Lowry? As I posted on the other forum I wish I had never even brought up this topic. It somehow degenerated into a discussion on indicators. For Zweig’ latest signals to prove valid and get a 10% return in the next six months would require an S@P in the 2784 to 2842 range. I doubt few here, including me, expect that scenario to unfold. I am rooting for Zweig though if only to validate his observations on the power of out of the ordinary momentum.
  • Josh Brown: Stock Markets And The Rule Of Law
    FYI: How many multiple points on the S&P 500 are at risk if the populace gets to a place where they no longer believe we are a country of laws – laws that apply to everyone, including the politicians who happen to be in control at a given a moment?
    I don’t know the answer, but I guarantee you it’s not zero. It’s a number for sure.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/01/11/stock-markets-and-the-rule-of-law-2/
  • M*: The 30-Year Outlook for U.S. Stocks
    FYI: Tuesday's column discussed the primary investment lesson over the past 30 years: Own equities. Own as much as possible for as long as possible. To a first approximation, it was never wrong to buy stocks, and never right to sell them.
    Today's installment addresses the more difficult task of looking forward. It's one thing to appreciate how successful equities have been. It's quite another to determine whether their marvelous results will continue.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/907507/the-30year-outlook-for-us-stocks.html
  • The Best Stock-Fund Managers Of 2018
    FYI: Most mutual-fund managers were more than happy to bid farewell to 2018.
    With the S&P 500 index wrapping up the year with the worst December since 1931, and a 6.2% loss for the full year, the average manager overseeing a diversified U.S.-stock fund saw a total return of minus 7.73% in 2018, according to Thomson Reuters Lipper. Nor were international stock funds any refuge: On average, they fell 15.52% for the year.
    But amid all that gloom, a handful of managers emerged as big winners, posting double-digit gains for the year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-stock-fund-managers-of-2018-11546830721?mod=article_inline
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    Zweig ( working with Ned Davis ) was an early pioneer of quantitative analysis. Yet, most analysis since the 1980's has been weak as the main thrust and profit center of finance has been the acquisition of assets under management with associated fees garnered ( ie incentive towards quant analysis with an eye towards generating alpha is way down on the agenda ).
    An important premise to keep in mind is to hold equity based assets for longest optimal periods. Once in a great while, a switch to duration assets for a short period may occur ( 20% of the time) . https://tinyurl.com/yadh6tsq
    Returns after larg(est) quarterly market losses ( of which 4th quarter 2018 was one), accompanied by a cross of the S&P 500 above its long period moving average ( pending ), has had a stellar track record with above average returns produced over future 1, 2, and 5 year cum returns periods: https://imgur.com/a/Eoj26AS
    Zwieg signal may or may not have accompanied these post quarterly loss events.
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    Charts? You really don’t know my background. I have written extensively about my distaste for charts. I spun my wheels seemingly forever until I decided to throw away the charts and that turned my trading completely around. To originally build my nest egg I daytradev stock index futures and not once looked at a chart. This would be a discussion for another time? You sure have some strong opinions about trading. I thought your background and career was IT.
    We agree on the indicator gurus and another area I have written about extensively. Back in the day I knew most all of them and they all shared one thing in common. None of them were successful traders - not one. They simply pandered ultra expensive and worthless trading systems, etc. The stories I could tell about some of the Pretenders in that field.
    You can edit real easily here. You can see a small wheel right top of your post. Click on thst and you see dee “edit”
    By the way as you can read below where I am mentioned, my favorite trading book of all time was the one by Nicolas Darvas. Zweig’s is a distance third or fourth.
    http://ezinearticles.com/?Was-Nicolas-Darvas-One-of-the-Greatest-Traders-Ever?&id=4316551
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    As I pointed in my first post I like to include links to prove my points and why I included a chart. Please include charts to support yours.
    I'm not going to buy his book because I can find his ideas on the web + I'm looking for indicators that work in the next day-one week. Over the years I read of several indicators/"gurus" and proved they were all wrong or can be off by months and years. (link)https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/379703/3896435.aspx#3896435
    It looks pretty reasonable that a market that went down over 10% will be up close to that in the next several months.
    Since I can't change things that I posted I will not post here very much because I may make a mistake and/or want to change my narrative.
    You are welcome to post on M*, any comment is welcome and we can discuss anything, I don't understand your comment "This board does not allow lively discussions because of the manner in which it is monitored." I do that all the time.
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    Hi Junkster, this is a continuation of our discussion.
    My last post had a link to NYSE up/down volume. I don't know how to save charts on this site but here it is
    If you don't mind supply links to support Zweig claims, just like I did..
    Junkster: In fairness to Zweig his signal was based on two 9 to 1 days within 3 months. He noted in his book the failure of singular 9 to 1 days. More importantly it is also based on NYSE advance/decline volume and not the S@P - a huge and significant difference. This latest signal meets the criteria so we shall see if it has any accuracy. The point is BOTH of his momentum indicators came into play at the same time- a rarity. If this fails I would put much less emphasis on his indicators.
    Edit. To quote myself on indicators. “ They should never be used as precise, absolute, black and white trading signals. Indicators are best used as clues or hints to future price action. Thus interpreting indicators is more art than a science........ What counts in trading is what the market is saying, not the indicators”
    FD1000: There's is a small difference in principle between NYSE to SP500.
    We had it twice or more in 2009, 2010, 2011 and didn't have it 2012-2019. This means that if you waited for the signal of 2 days within 3 months it never came.
    Basically, the facts still stand, you get 1 and more every time the SP500 goes down over 10%...chart...and it's reasonable. After a 10% correction, you will get days of huge up/down volume.
    So, a rule of thumb might be, every time the SP500 goes down more than 10% rebalance...or...even simpler, every time your stocks to bond is 5% off sync --> rebalance.
    For my trades I look for indicators that tell me on a specific day when to buy and MACD is pretty accurate.
  • Pension Partners 2018 summary
    Here’s a detailed study of 2018. https://pensionpartners.com/2018-the-year-in-charts/
    II. Bear Markets and Recessions
    Does a 20% decline in stocks mean a recession is coming? That’s the question everyone seems to be asking today.
    Looking back at history, the answer is far from clear. This is now the 21st Bear Market since 1929. Of the previous 20, only 11 were associated with a recession (55% of the time).”
    “Only 3 country ETFs finished positive: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and New Zealand. How many strategists had Qatar on their list of top picks for 2018?”
    “XI. Happy New Year
    In 2019, I predict one thing and one thing only: you will see many more surprises. That is the nature of markets.”