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Thanks for the data you presented. I have always been a fan of Ned Davis too. And remember Lowry? As I posted on the other forum I wish I had never even brought up this topic. It somehow degenerated into a discussion on indicators. For Zweig’ latest signals to prove valid and get a 10% return in the next six months would require an S@P in the 2784 to 2842 range. I doubt few here, including me, expect that scenario to unfold. I am rooting for Zweig though if only to validate his observations on the power of out of the ordinary momentum.Zweig ( working with Ned Davis ) was an early pioneer of quantitative analysis. Yet, most analysis since the 1980's has been weak as the main thrust and profit center of finance has been the acquisition of assets under management with associated fees garnered ( ie incentive towards quant analysis with an eye towards generating alpha is way down on the agenda ).
An important premise to keep in mind is to hold equity based assets for longest optimal periods. Once in a great while, a switch to duration assets for a short period may occur ( 20% of the time) . https://tinyurl.com/yadh6tsq
Returns after larg(est) quarterly market losses ( of which 4th quarter 2018 was one), accompanied by a cross of the S&P 500 above its long period moving average ( pending ), has had a stellar track record with above average returns produced over future 1, 2, and 5 year cum returns periods: https://imgur.com/a/Eoj26AS
Zwieg signal may or may not have accompanied these post quarterly loss events.
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