Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
This past week, the weekly short volume average increased, a little, from 59% to 60% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) declined from a reading of 62 to 54. This is good as the stock Index's valuation gained ground during week moving from a reading of 2305 to 2541 for a gain of 10.2% but has a decline of 25% from it's 52 week high. With this, the Index remains in bear market territory.
From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.68% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.29% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm investing more for income generation more so than capital appreciation being retired. And, I feel my equity income funds presently offer me greater total return going forward, more so, than most of my bond funds.
I also feel that the stock market is oversold; but, not so much for bonds. It seems bonds are just now starting to look more attractive due to the sell off some have received this past week due to liquidity factors. According to my advisor, with whom I speak with weekly, the good stuff is still getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. For some asset classes, that are thinly traded, there seems to have been a liquidity crunch which has created downward price pressure. This for some investors could mean opportunity. And, now that I have a near full asset allocation in equities I have now begun to shop on the income side of my portfolio. Some funds that are on the income side of my portfolio that I'm seeing value in along with opportunity are FLAAX ... FRINX ... and, JGIAX.
My three best performing funds this week were all found in the growth area of my portfolio. They were LPEFX +16.51% ... PGUAX +14.04% ... and, AOFAX +12.87%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a good week ... and, I hope all goes well for you.
I am, Old_Skeet
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions Regarding Boeing, it's quite possible that the company is just using the virus as a cover for eliminating its dividend. Sure, it put on a brave face in January (
"Boeing CEO says it will keep paying its dividend despite Max crisis").
But it did that by choosing to stop 737 production (thus "saving" cash), rather than cutting its dividend and using the cash to keep its supply chain in place. Now with the virus Boeing has the perfect excuse for doing what it should have done in the first place, suspend its dividend.
It had exhausted its credit lines. "
According to AFP banking sources, the aircraft manufacturer drew on the full $14 billion credit line it only just secured from banks last month". It had negative shareholder equity (-$8.6B) at the
end of 2019. It couldn't have sustained the facade much longer, virus or not.
From The New Republic, December 23, 2019,
Boeing Axes CEO as Company Hits New Heights of Self-Denialhttps://newrepublic.com/article/156092/boeing-axes-ceo-company-hits-new-heights-self-denial
Literally everyone The New Republic has approached on the vexing question of why Boeing keeps coughing up dividends throughout this fiasco has said the same thing, using almost the exact same words: Boeing has been extremely effective at pacifying Wall Street. Throughout this nightmarish year, Boeing’s stock has remained rock steady and may yet end the year with a modest gain. “Investors”—“people” even—“rely” on those dividends. If Boeing slashes or suspends its dividend, it will send “shock waves” throughout Wall Street.
From the NYTimes, December 16, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-737-max.html
At the very moment Boeing announced it was ceasing production of its most important product, the company took steps to meet Wall Street’s expectations. As it announced the shutdown on Monday, it sent a simultaneous news release announcing a regular quarterly dividend for shareholders.
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions "In this article I discuss dividend cuts or suspensions resulting from the coronavirus and oil price wars. Currently I count 49 total companies that have cut the dividend since the end of February to March 27,2020. Please see the list at the bottom of the article. Most of the companies are in the travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurant, REITs, or energy sectors. The two most prominent dividend cuts to date are Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Boeing (BA)."
by Dividend PowerIn a related vein there is also this found snippet which I can neither confirm or deny from the latest issue of Barrons:
"Pg 3
5: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't It was a quick unique black swan. The last one, 2008-9, was slower. The hard part, the next one can be years from now and you would invest based on the last fiasco. Many would buy US bond index or treasuries just to see an average annual return of 2-2.5% in the next several years.
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For
5 years as of 3-27-2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Isn't this bond crash just a misallocation of capital? In reality, those who bought into bond funds that crashed hard took on bad debt, the conduit being the fund itself.
FD, several weeks ago, I commented on the investing principle of Taleb's or Bodie's black swan investing approach...85-90% of funds invested in the safest investment possible, the balance invested aggressively...I think that style has worked well and will continue to work well going forward. To the point you made then and for certain, one would have made greater gains over the past decade but then again the best gains can be made by compounding wealth, limiting drawdowns.
Not sure that I would touch Muni bonds here...recognizing there are many different types of muni bonds, I can't see folks buying new cars going forward, don't see how muni's can raise property taxes, folks will just stop paying them, local shops are going to be slow to ramp back up if at all, can only write so many parking tickets...and is counting on the gov't to fund/backstop an investment really investing or is it smart to do so, meaning having the wind at your back, kind of like front running the POMO (published permanent open market operations) in prior QE programs?
Good luck and good health to all,
Baseball Fan