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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Royce boldly goes ... well, nowhere, really.
    Royce & Associates has just announced a bold rebranding strategy. It "better describes the breadth of the firm's business and the importance it places on the spirit of partnership with which the company has always conducted itself ... it better represent[s] to all of our constituents who we are now as a firm ... it better represent[s] the range of our strategies." With a boldness surely inspired by their be-bowtied, soon-to-be-octagenarian founder, Royce and Associates has become ...
    Royce Investment Partners!
    Ta da!
    Uhhh ... R.I.P.? Was that an inspired choice for a firm who's seen assets decline 17% in the past 12 months and 75% in the decade?
    Here's the 12 year correlation between their flagship Pennsylvania Mutual (PENNX) fund and the 11 next-oldest funds in their lineup:
    0.99%
    0.95
    0.98
    0.96
    0.99
    0.98
    0.96
    0.96
    0.94
    0.95
    0.95
    And that's after liquidating much of the sea of clones they launched after Legg Mason bought them.
    I got a heads up about the change from a reader, Brett Schneider, who concludes, "The joke writes itself. RIP."
    David
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    The legacy pages of M* still let you do that.
    Here's the link for the performance page of VFIAX. In Enter Tickers box of the Compare section, you can enter the tickers of the funds or ETFs that you want to compare. While the graph only goes back ten years, the table of returns ("Trailing Total Returns") has exactly the columns you asked for: annualized returns over 1,3,5,10, and 15 years.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VFIAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    Is there a site that you can compare 5 funds or etfs 1,3,5, 10, and going out to 15 years annualized returns?
  • Mutual Fund Outperforms Using 51-Year-Old Investment Strategy

    LEXCX would be good if it had a lower ER. Sorry, for an essentially unmanaged fund, the ER should be like .15 or less.
  • Mutual Fund Outperforms Using 51-Year-Old Investment Strategy
    Here is a performance chart comparison (see link below) of FDYZX which include other funds that were around in 1968...such as LEXCX, VWINX, VWELX.
    LEXCX would have been a better all stock fund choice. I find that a mutual fund needs a consistent higher upside capture (I'll call this alpha) in order to overcome its periodic downside. LEXCX achieved this "two steps forward...one step back" over the long term much more so that FDYZX has.
    VWINX and VWELX even achieve a better performance ride most of time and with a lot less volatility compared to FDYZX.
    Chart Comparison
  • Mutual Fund Outperforms Using 51-Year-Old Investment Strategy
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/best-mutual-funds-stick-works-franklin-dynatech-fund/
    Mutual Fund Outperforms Using 51-Year-Old Investment Strategy
    PAUL KATZEFF 09:43 AM ET 12/16/2019
    What makes a portfolio one of the best mutual funds? How about sticking with an investment strategy that wins long-term?
    Anyone has this fund
    Franklin DynaTech Fund (FKDNX)?
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    MikeM,
    So, is China nothing....but just like 15 years ago? Would you say cars from 15 years ago are the same today? Move on, bro. You're behind. If it's not all that, then why is our government so worried?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    ...I am looking to Asia/China. It's where the future is...
    Hmm, very reminiscent of what I heard 15+ years ago on this board. And my reply then, not in our life time.
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    Hi Simon,
    Yes, I have looked at JAGTX. It's a good fund. You will do well in it. I am looking to Asia/China. It's where the future is, in my belief. Stimulus.......G5, richer middle class. It is ⅓ Asia where I want to be. So I say look where the fund is....not the returns. It's small millions....not billions. High turnover again. What I want is mad money. High risk.....it's not a keeper. Since I'm dealing with Fido, no loads. As far as going higher, yes, I'm with you. We will go to 0 interest rates and QE before this bull ends .....JMO. Buy now or cry later. Right now, debt does not matter. 'Til it does, cheaper for longer 'till it ends.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • The 2009 Effect
    My wife and I opened Roth IRAs at the end of 1998, at Fidelity. At that time. we only invested in mutual funds. We figured on a long time frame so I wasn't worried about volatility. I told her "here are the two best Fidelity funds -- Select Electronics and Select Home Finance. Which do you want."
    She said "I want the very best one."
    So we put her $2000 in FSELX. (2K was the max annual Roth IRA contribution back then.) Two years later we put another $4000 in FSELX.
    Now it's worth $30,330. Fidelity calculates the total gain at 405%.
    That's certainly been helped by 60% this year.
    Meanwhile, I put my $2000 in Home Finance, which went in the tank in 2008.
    So that's been dumped.
    But I did buy a bunch of FSELX in my Fidelity 403b a few years ago (now my Rollover IRA).
    It tilts our portfolio to "aggressive", for sure. We balance it with some dividend-paying stocks and S&P 500 funds and ETFs.
    I feel more lucky than smart about it all.
    David
  • The 2009 Effect
    edited after consulting the legacy M* graph interface ---
    good patience --- $10k held since midsummer '79 has grown to $589k, woohoo
    (triple that for FCNTX)
  • Why You Shouldn’t Believe Those G.D.P. Numbers
    It's not just that less money is flowing to the working class. It's also that so much work isn't valued at all. Literally. Unpaid work, whether housework, or home care for the elderly, or charitable labor is not only not rewarded, it is not even counted towards GDP.
    It never has been. Written in 1920:
    if a man hires a house and furniture belonging to somebody else, the services he obtains from them enter into the national dividend, as we are here provisionally defining it, but, if he receives the house and furniture as a gift and continues to occupy it, they do so no longer. Again, if a farmer sells the produce of his farm and buys the food he needs for his family in the market, a considerable amount of produce enters into the national dividend which would cease to enter into it if, instead of buying things in the market, he held back part of his own meat and vegetables and consumed them on the farm. Again, the philanthropic work done by unpaid organiser, Church workers and Sunday school teachers, the scientific work of disinterested experimenters, and the political work of many among the leisured classes, which at present do not enter or, when there is a nominal payment, enter at much less than their real worth, into the national dividend, would enter into it if those people undertook to pay salaries to one another. Thus, for example, the Act providing for the payment of members of Parliament increased the national dividend by services valued at some £250,000. Yet again, the services rendered by women enter into the dividend when they are rendered in exchange for wages, whether in the factory or in the home, but do not enter into it when they are rendered by mothers and wives gratuitously to their own families. Thus, if a man marries his housekeeper or his cook, the national dividend is diminished. These things are paradoxes. It is a paradox also that, when Poor Law or Factory Regulations divert women workers from factory work or paid home-work to unpaid home-work, in attendance on their children, preparation of the family meals, repair of the family clothes, thoughtful expenditure of housekeeping money, and so on, the national dividend, on our definition, suffers a loss against which there is to be set no compensating gain. It is a paradox, lastly, that the frequent desecration of natural beauty through the hunt for coal or gold, or through the more blatant forms of commercial advertisement, must, on our definition, leave the national dividend intact, though, if it had been practicable, as it is in some exceptional circumstances, to make a charge for viewing scenery, it would not have done so
    Arthur Cecil Pigou, The Economics of Welfare (4th ed.) (London: Macmillan, 1932).
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/1410#Pigou_0316_113
  • Why You Shouldn’t Believe Those G.D.P. Numbers
    A NY Times opinion piece by David Leonhardt
    "Americans are dissatisfied, and have been for years, largely because the economy as most people experience it has not been booming. G.D.P. — or gross domestic product, the economy’s total output — keeps on rising, but it no longer tracks the well-being of most Americans. Instead, an outsize share of economic growth flows to the wealthy. And yet G.D.P. is treated as a totemic measure of the country’s prosperity."
    "A team of Commerce Department economists has been working on a new version of G.D.P., one that will show how much of the economy’s bounty is flowing to different income groups. The headline number would still exist, but the new data, known as “distributional accounts,” would make clear who was and wasn’t benefiting. The department expects to publish a prototype statistic next year."
    ARTICLE
  • Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
    Yeah - a confusing article. It says “Posted by SDD Contributor December 15, 2019” above the article. Than, within the article, it reverts to the original March (first publication) date. Stuff happens. I’d give John a pass on that one.
    Well now ... Higher rates have been prophesied for at least 6 or 7 years now. I suspect the reasons it hasn’t happened are complicated and might even blow over into politics - Heaven forbid.
    Rates fell (unexpectedly) for much of this year, but have reversed fairly sharply (upward) the past 6 weeks or so. The 10-year Treasury’s above 1.8%. Not sure what the 2-year’s at. But I’d guess money market funds will be soon creeping towards 2%.*
    While rates have risen, there’s a lot of speculation the Dollar is going to weaken against other currencies. Trump has said recently he wants it to, and gold seems to be indicating that’s in the works as well. Central banks are loading up on gold. Rumors abound that the Fed is soon going to start purchasing longer dated bonds to try to hold rates down and spur growth (around year’s end.)
    EM? In a wreaking dollar situation EM currencies would be attractive. If my time horizon was a bit longer I’d be holding some. As far as EM equities - that’s anybody’s guess. there’s a lot more parts in motion to consider.
    * FYI - Here’s some current rates as posted on Bloomberg around noon 12/16:
    2 YR Treasury. 1.64%
    5 YR Treasury. 1.72%
    10 YR - 1.89%
    30 YR - 2.31
    Vanguard’s Prime mm fund was yielding around 1.7% as of Friday.
  • Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
    @MikeM ...hi sir maybe in 9 months feds may raise rate again, dows may reach 29k
    when we find out 4q 2018 was indeed a large correct ion/ small recession stock pulled back -15%
    n focus - Economics
    How Q4 ranks among the worst 20 quarters of the past half century
    -gobal stocks have suffered their worst quarter since 2011. We look at how it compared with the 20 worst quarters over the last 48 years and the potential silver lining for investors today._
    https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/how-q4-ranks-among-the-worst-20-quarters-of-the-past-half-century/
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    If you open and read this, there is an image of the guy that wrote this blog and he looks like he may have been about 15 years old when REITS crashed in 2007-2009, so I don't think he understands the pain REIT investors felt at that time. I don't know how he can make this summary statement below. If I look at the Vanguard ETF for REITS, VNQ, it lost 70%+ peak to trough during the great recession. Would that be considered a bond alternative with less risk for retirees?
    REITs are a viable alternative to retirees and other income investors who desire greater income without having to take significantly more risk.
    The above and other posts by MikeM are what I have been saying for years. If I want higher income I use funds like Multisector funds such as IOFIX and PIMIX. If you are looking for high income + a good total return, look no further than PCI,PDI and other Pimco CEFs.
    My opinion is that PCI will have a better performance than stocks in the next 5 years and if you are a trader you can avoid the big losses too by using weekly MACD as a good indicator. See PCI (chart) and use it to buy PCI when weekly MACD is positive and sell when it's negative
  • Pass the donuts
    Yes, OEFs are different. And also rather confusing. When purchased through a brokerage they tend to settle one day after trade (not T+2, and not same day). But when purchased directly from a fund company, they seem to settle "immediately" (end of day).
    Then there are the oddball funds that take more than a day to settle at brokerages. And some other funds that may have same day settlement at a brokerage, but only if you sell them early in the day. (I'm currently dumping a MMF at Merrill that settles same day if I place the order before 1:45PM.)
    What seems to be the case is that regardless of when the settlement date is for an OEF, the ex-date is generally the first trading day after the record date.
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    So is it time to trade self-storage reits for storage-of-self reits?
    @Anna - There is such a company: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/company-will-freeze-your-dead-body-200-000-n562551 (a link allows you to get around the ad-block blocking.)
    the practice of preserving a body with antifreeze shortly after death ... - Strikes me as not a novel idea. I’ve known guys who routinely do that ahead of time.
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    Great find @Mark,
    As folks in these (REIT) funds know, self-storage is often an important component (normally around 10-20% of holdings). The article you linked notes fierce competition, oversupply and cooling of demand in the self-storage market.
    “In addition to our report on the homebuilding sector, we also published Self-Storage REITs: Storage Wars Wage On. Once a perennial top-performer in the REIT sector, developers and new operators have flocked to the sector in recent years, adding new supply at a furious rate, weakening fundamentals. 2019 was shaping up to be a strong year for the sputtering self-storage REIT sector, but 3Q19 earnings were a setback on the road to recovery. Competition remains fierce in an oversupplied market. Symptomatic of the ongoing storage wars, marketing spending jumped nearly 60% from last year for these REITs, pressuring same-store NOI growth to essentially zero.”
    Got me to wondering if there’s some linkage (albeit a bit stretched) between this and the boomers now being 70+ and possibly ridding themselves of various RV vehicles? Personally, I rid myself of a boat recently after 40+ years of boat ownership and no longer rent a self storage unit for it. I’d imagine other types of RV owners also used these convenient storage options.
    Here’s an article documenting a slowdown in RV sales:
    The RV industry is slowing down after 10 years of growth https://www.curbed.com/2019/6/17/18682121/rv-campers-industry-economy-economic-impact-jobs-2018
    The oldest post WW II boomers are now nearing 75. That generation (to which I and many here belong) has had profound impacts on virtually every economic sector over most of the last century including: education, auto and home sales, RV sales, stock and bond markets, brokerages, health care, insurance. The list goes on ...
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    Good Day @MikeM. Yes I think we are saying pretty much the same thing now that you explained your thoughts. The attached article lends a more in-depth discussion.
    Good News Becomes Bad News For REITs
    FWIW I'm not buying more REIT's at this time but I am on the lookout for bargains. Timing and patience as they say.