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Memories fade. Sometimes we remember what we want to remember.
My own memory says that PIMCO funds were generally expensive, though I believe that there was a period of time when they actually got cheap. I think at one time Bill Gross said something about making fees more reasonable. But that's my fuzzy memory, and it's harder to find records of such pronouncements than it is to dig up old filings:
PIMIX current expenses (July 31, 2019 summary prospectus):
Management Fees: 0.50%
12b-1 Fees: N/A
Other Expenses: 0.55% (all of which is interest expense, per footnote)
Fee Waiver: N/A
Total ER: 1.05%
PIMIX expenses 10 years ago (July 31, 2009 prospectus):
Management Fees: 0.45%
12b-1 Fees: N/A
Other Expenses: 0.61% ("reflect interest expense", per footnote)
Expense Reduction (0.05%)
Total ER: 1.01%
An old line about war says that amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics. A similar line about the economy would be that amateurs talk about stocks, but professionals study the bond market. And lately the bond market is telling a tale of profound pessimism.
Why does the bond market reflect economic expectations? If investors expect a boom, they also expect the Fed to try to rein in the boom by raising short-term interest rates (which it more or less directly controls), to head off potential inflation. The prospect of higher short-term rates then leads to higher long-term rates, because nobody wants to lock money in at a low yield if returns are going up. Conversely, if investors expect a slump, they expect the Fed to cut rates, and pile into long-term bonds to lock in returns while they can.
So the slump in long-term yields since last fall, from a peak of 3.2 percent to just 1.63 percent this morning, says that investors have grown drastically less sanguine about the economy. Long-term rates are now notably lower than short-term rates — and this kind of “yield curve inversion” has in the past consistently been the precursor to recession.
Bond investors could, of course, be wrong — there are some people out there claiming that we’re in a bond bubble. And so far the real economy, as measured by G.D.P., job growth, and all that, is still chugging along. But as I said, there’s clearly a wave of pessimism sweeping the market. What’s it about?
One answer is that last fall many investors were looking at a couple of quarters of high growth, and thinking that this might be the start of an extended boom. Serious economists warned that this growth was a temporary lift — a “sugar high” — driven by the shift from fiscal austerity to what-me-worry deficit finance. But at least some people bought into the Trumpist line that tax cuts were going to produce an enduring rise in the growth rate.
Since then, however, it has become clear that the tax-cut boost was indeed a one-time thing. In particular, there has been no sign of the promised surge in business investment.
At the same time, Trump’s trade war may be starting to take a toll. In particular, the uncertainty may be deterring business spending. Whether new tariffs would hurt or help your business, it now makes sense to hold off on plans to expand, until you see what he actually does.
Finally, economic troubles in the rest of the world — several major European economies are quite possibly in recession — are filtering back to the U.S.
Now, most economists aren’t predicting a recession here, for good reason. The truth is that nobody is very good at calling turning points in the economy, and calling a recession before it’s really obvious in the data is much more likely to get you declared a Chicken Little than hailed as a prophet. (Believe me, I know all about it.) But the bond market, which doesn’t worry about such things, is looking remarkably grim.
I leave the possible political implications as an exercise for all of you.
When will Us bankrupt or default on their bonds
I worry about my nephews nieces children living in a poor economic system in 20+yrs
I wonder what potus congress doing about fed deficits beside kicking can down road after 2020
Think it will be very difficult to pass laws /convince US citizens /tax workers (voters small business owners) >40s% in taxations and rich folks ~ 70% to pay (for all free Healthcare and green deals and 1k monthly each millennials)
I would vote for yang if he gives me one k monthly and a free Corvette
As rono would say - time buy more (physical) gold?!? -
Here's a chart comparing PIMIX's performance over the past two years with that of the average mult-sector bond, VMBSX (mortgage backed index fund), a couple more mortgage-backed bond funds, and VBLTX (IG bond index fund). It excludes August 2019, when as @mcmarasco points out, PIMIX had anomalous performance.@MFO Members: As a holder of Pimco Income Fund I admit the expensive is high, but what concerns me is the size of the fund $103.3 Billion. I beliece it's size has hurt performance over the last couple of years despite Dan Ivascyn's claim that it hasn't
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