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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • No help from Treasury bond/note stuff today, they may have my 2018 equity magic money, but....
    I haven't heard anybody anywhere in the past few years recommend buying investment grade debt (I guess @Ted holds some corporates). Interesting, since folks chased treasury yields all the way down to 1% or some foolish figure. Now that they’re over 2.8%, nary a word. It was a rough week for a lot of bonds. That’s what happens when rates spike higher. Everybody sees inflation. But you won’t have much (IMO) If the central banks jack up the short end and push us into recession. Pay your money. Take your chances.
    Are high grade bonds with durations in the 5-year range still “dumb dumb”? Or might they fill a need for some seniors unnerved by turmoil in the equity and junk bond arena? (I’m biased having added a few GNMAs recently more for protection than with any thought of making money).
    BTW - Sad that every thread if left to its own course seems to lead to bitter wrangling (not that I haven’t sometimes unwittingly contributed). A sign of the times I think - plus @Lewis’s Sputnik-bots may be monitoring websites for mention of certain names. Dunno. It’s gotten so bad some in Congress are considering building a wall (there) to wall-off warring Dem and Rep staffers. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-intel-committee-gop-plan-to-wall-themselves-off-from-democrats-devin-nunes-adam-schiff/
  • Emerging Markets
    I am a young "oldster" who is content with 8% of my total portfolio in EM. (EM holdings total about 35% of my international stocks.) You might take a look at MEASX if you are comfortable with owning funds that don't closely track indexes. Its close to 100% EM.
  • Emerging Markets
    @willmat72, you may have much less EM in your portfolio than the 15% you stated. None of the 3 funds you listed are full-in EM funds like an index EM fund would be. There is a lot of developed, bonds and cash in that 3-some total.
    For example, it looks like the TRP fund has about 6% of it's assets in EM equities. SFGIX about 51% and MIOPX about 27%. If you hold all those funds at about the same weight of that 15% you are calling EM funds in the total portfolio, that's only about 28% EM equities in those 3 funds.
    15% (what you call EM funds in your portfolio) x 28% (actual EM equities in your 3 funds) comes out to about 4% EM equities in your total portfolio.
    I may not have explained it well, but you may only have about 4% EM equities in your total portfolio (if I did the math right). I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Appears you are closer to the conservative % Ted points out.
    Edit: do a M* instant xray of all your funds to find out for sure if you think you need to be exact.
  • Emerging Markets
    Hi @willmat72,
    Now in retirement, I consider myself a low moderate risk taker. I use to be a more aggressive investor and carry a higher allocation to stocks (60% to 70%) now 40% to 55%. My emerging market holdings account for about 25% of my foreign equity holdings. For me, the emerging market allocation (overall portfolio) for an aggressive investor would be 10% to 15% ... a moderate investor would range from 5% to 10% and a conserative investor would be from 0% to 5%. With this, I fall in the moderate range.
    Old_Skeet
  • Emerging Markets
    @willmatt72: FYI: Scroll and read, "Plotting a Course for Emerging Markets"
    Regards,
    Ted
    A=15%
    M=10%
    C=5%
  • An Income Solution: (PMAIX)
    FYI: The team at the Amundi Pioneer Multi-Asset Income fund looks for income opportunities in some unexpected places. Many small moves can lead to big gains.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/An-Income-Solution.Hy9vD6aag2UG.html
    M* Snapshot PAMIX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pmaix/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PAMIX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/pmaix
    PAMIX Is Unranked In The (30-50% E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-30-to-50-equity/pioneer-multi-asset-income-fund/pmaix
  • Emerging Markets
    I've seen quite a few recommendations to buy emerging markets based on this latest correction. Currently, I devote about 15% of my international holdings to emerging markets, with the bulk from SFGIX, MIOPX and PRGTX. I would consider myself a fairly conservative investor with a 10+ horizon for investing. What do you consider a sufficient allocation to emerging markets in an aggressive, moderate and conservative portfolio?
  • Barry Ritholtz: People Get Creative When Explaining The Market Correction
    I've been watching some of the talking heads on CNBC and Fox Business and it is quite humorous to hear them explain what is going on. They will say we are near the bottom and then the market drops another 1,000 points and they say we could drop another 5-10 % LOL...I won't name any names but a few of them remind me of my last car salesman - sharp dressers, quick talkers, hand gestures everywhere. When you look at their eyes on TV, you get the feeling that they don't quite believe everything they say. Some of the shows remind me of infomercials. Maybe I'm psychoanalyzing too much. Just my instinct.
  • Hasenstab Doubles Down On Bets Treasuries Doomed By Rising Rates
    Totally under impressed. $37.9B AUM *.093 (ER) = Management fee = ($352,470,000).
    Who's making money on this bond fund? Not the small investor.
    Just a few comparisons to TPINX vs VTBIX, DODIX, PONDX, and PTIAX.
    5 year Chart:
    image
    Performance:
    image
  • Bond Funds
    What are your suggestions for short-term bond funds and high-quality intermediate bond funds?
    As always, age, risk tolerance, sources of income, needs and other factors need to be taken into consideration. I’ll assume poster in near or in retirement. Umm ... I’ve probably got bonds coming out of my ears when considering all the balanced, hybrid and multi-income funds like RPSIX I own.
    Right now I’m looking for safe shelter from a possible avalanche in equities. Not a prediction. Just a concern. So, contrary to all the advice out there from people smarter than me, I’ve been adding to PRGMX (ginnie mae) in dabs and dribbles - including today. While I fully expect to lose some $$ on this position going forward, I consider it one form of insurance against a recession and / or rout in the equity side. What I’m buying here is high grade govt. backed debt from a top money manager (albeit at inflated prices). And were equities to tumble and bonds rise, I’d exit that position rapidly. Not exactly “short term”. Effective duration in the 4-5 year range. More like intermediate I guess.
    I generally don’t like to post trades. But am trying to address the question as fully as I can.
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    Jan. 31 through 06 Feb, '18.
    SFGIX -3.38%
    PRIJX -3.76% (I do not own this guy.)
    Did SFGIX do its job of reducing losses in a downward-stretch?
    ...And from a different planet, my domestic small caps in VSCIX were down by -4.45% in the same period.

    Although SFGIX is listed as a Diversified Emerging Markets fund, it holds about 55% in emerging markets with the rest categorized as developed markets. IMHO, it's not a true emerging markets fund with little more than half exposure. PRIJX, however, holds about 72% in emerging markets with the rest in developed markets. This could explain in part the reason for the greater downswing for PRIJX. To me, SFGIX is sort of a back end way of dipping into emerging markets without REALLY getting full exposure to it. I own the fund myself, just to clarify.

    I think this is splitting hairs a bit.
    Country Diversification Top 5
    VEIVX
    China 32.6%
    Taiwan 14.4%
    India 11.8%
    South Africa 7.9%
    Brazil 7.7%
    SFGIX
    China/Hong Kong 19%
    South Korea 18%
    Taiwan 11%
    India 10%
    Brazil 10%
    Is South Korea an emerging market?
    Is Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, also a "Diversified Emerging Markets Fund", a true emerging markets fund?
    Mona
    Not splitting hairs at all; just looking at the facts as shown on *M. The MSCI EM benchmark is 70 EM and 30 DM. Currently, Foster is below that benchmark at 55 EM, hence the possible reason for lower volatility. I believe @BobC mentioned this very issue in July.
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    If we stick to @Crash's original question and not try and give our reasons for why or how it's different than other EM funds (it of course is - it's suppose to be), there is no splitting hairs.
    I believe SFGIX gives good risk adjusted return. That's Foster's mandate. How the management team achieves that has been well described by Foster (see the MFO profile below). So back to crash's question,
    Did SFGIX do its job of reducing losses in a downward-stretch?
    Heck yeah - so far.
    David writes some great fund profiles. The description he wrote in 2013 and updated in 2015 on SFGIX tells exactly how this fund gives great risk adjusted return. And it seems to work as evidence from the last week of market turmoil.
    For an older guy like myself heading into retirement who is some what risk adverse, it is a perfect way to "back-end" EM exposure.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/?s=sfgix
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    Jan. 31 through 06 Feb, '18.
    SFGIX -3.38%
    PRIJX -3.76% (I do not own this guy.)
    Did SFGIX do its job of reducing losses in a downward-stretch?
    ...And from a different planet, my domestic small caps in VSCIX were down by -4.45% in the same period.

    Although SFGIX is listed as a Diversified Emerging Markets fund, it holds about 55% in emerging markets with the rest categorized as developed markets. IMHO, it's not a true emerging markets fund with little more than half exposure. PRIJX, however, holds about 72% in emerging markets with the rest in developed markets. This could explain in part the reason for the greater downswing for PRIJX. To me, SFGIX is sort of a back end way of dipping into emerging markets without REALLY getting full exposure to it. I own the fund myself, just to clarify.
    I think this is splitting hairs a bit.
    Country Diversification Top 5
    VEIVX
    China 32.6%
    Taiwan 14.4%
    India 11.8%
    South Africa 7.9%
    Brazil 7.7%
    SFGIX
    China/Hong Kong 19%
    South Korea 18%
    Taiwan 11%
    India 10%
    Brazil 10%
    Is South Korea an emerging market?
    Is Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, also a "Diversified Emerging Markets Fund", a true emerging markets fund?
    Mona
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    Jan. 31 through 06 Feb, '18.
    SFGIX -3.38%
    PRIJX -3.76% (I do not own this guy.)
    Did SFGIX do its job of reducing losses in a downward-stretch?
    ...And from a different planet, my domestic small caps in VSCIX were down by -4.45% in the same period.
    Although SFGIX is listed as a Diversified Emerging Markets fund, it holds about 55% in emerging markets with the rest categorized as developed markets. IMHO, it's not a true emerging markets fund with little more than half exposure. PRIJX, however, holds about 72% in emerging markets with the rest in developed markets. This could explain in part the reason for the greater downswing for PRIJX. To me, SFGIX is sort of a back end way of dipping into emerging markets without REALLY getting full exposure to it. I own the fund myself, just to clarify.
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    I see SFGIX has dropped 4.76% from 1/31 to 2/7. I see PRIJX dropped 5.74% in the same time range. SFGIX dropped 17% less than PRIJX. You decide.
    I'll edit and throw in another comparison. Schwab's emerging market ETF, SCHE, has dropped 6.9% from 1/31 to 2/7. SFGIX has dropped 31% less than that index ETF.
  • Comparison snapshot during current crazy market period: SFGIX vs. PRIJX
    Jan. 31 through 06 Feb, '18.
    SFGIX -3.38%
    PRIJX -3.76% (I do not own this guy.)
    Did SFGIX do its job of reducing losses in a downward-stretch?
    ...And from a different planet, my domestic small caps in VSCIX were down by -4.45% in the same period.