Thanks @Observant1 for the post. I thought the point on the VIX noteworthy.
-
Opening lines from Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary tonight:
”The tractor beam was at work towing stocks higher once again, with the Nasdaq up almost 0.5% and the S&P about half of that. There was no news to impact trading, and it continues to be the case that the passive bid and mechanical flows just keep grinding the market upward.”
From ”Mechanical Flows” - The Daily Rap for Friday July 25, 2025
(Subscription Required)

Social media speculators have recently turned several stocks into meme stocks.
These so-called "DORK" stocks are: Krispy Kreme (D), OpenDoor (O), Rocket Cos. (R) and Kohl’s (K).
Meme crazes occur during periods when investors exhibit great market enthusiasm.
The VIX fell below 15 on Thursday—its lowest in five months.
This is a dramatic decrease from early April when it topped 60.
"What comes next? Goldman’s research says exuberant times can get more extreme for a while.
Over a 35-year horizon, sharp rises in speculative trading have preceded above-average three-,
six- and 12-month returns for the S&P 500, after which the market has faltered."
"The return of meme stocks might fit that timeline again,
but it’s a warning to edge closer to the exits before the music stops."
https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-sukhthd-duklntldl-r/

The quality of official U.S. economic data concerns 89 of 100 top policy experts according to a Reuters poll.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), an agency which compiles inflation and labor market data,
has experienced firings, resignations, and early retirements like many other government departments.
It has been estimated that BLS headcount has decreased by at least 15%.
"'I can't help but worry some deadlines are going to be missed and undetected biases or other errors
are going to start creeping into some of these reports just because of the reduction in staff,' Erica Groshen,
BLS commissioner from 2013-2017, told Reuters."

"'Major statistical agency ... budgets are not adequate to support ongoing production of the wide range
of high-quality statistics they have traditionally released,' said Karen Dynan, professor at Harvard University
and former U.S. assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy."
"Policymakers are not prioritizing the issue enough to ensure the U.S. maintains its status
as having the best statistical system in the world."
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-economic-data-quality-worry-authorities-not-acting-urgently-enough-experts-2025-07-25/

cantillion effect ensures some fool will point to odd items where price has dipped. the latest from MAGA seems to be trump was joking about lowering the absolute level of prices, and outsiders didnt get it.

497 1 wavelength497.htm 497
July 23, 2025
ULTIMUS MANAGERS TRUST
WAVELENGTH FUND
(WAVLX)
Supplement to the Summary Prospectus and Prospectus,
each dated September 28, 2024
This supplement updates certain information in the Summary Prospectus and Prospectus of the Wavelength Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Ultimus Managers Trust, to revise information contained therein as described below. For more information, or to obtain a copy of the Summary Prospectus or Prospectus, free of charge, please contact the Fund at 1-866-896-9292.
Effective July 31, 2025, the Fund will change its distribution frequency from quarterly to monthly.
The following disclosure replaces in its entirety the first sentence in the second paragraph in the section entitled “DIVIDENDS, DISTRIBUTIONS AND TAXES” on page 34 of the Prospectus:
The Fund expects to distribute substantially all of its net income to shareholders on a monthly basis and its net realized capital gains to shareholders at least annually.
Effective July 31, 2025, the Fund will reduce the minimum initial investment from $10,000 for regular accounts to $2,500 for regular accounts.
The following disclosure replaces in its entirety the first two sentences in the section entitled “PURCHASE AND SALE OF FUND SHARES” on page 8 of the Summary Prospectus:
PURCHASE AND SALE OF FUND SHARES
Minimum Initial Investment
The minimum investment is $2,500 for regular accounts.
The following disclosure replaces in its entirety the second paragraph in the section entitled “HOW TO BUY SHARES – Minimum Initial Investment” on page 26 of the Prospectus:
Minimum Initial Investment
The minimum initial investment for regular accounts is $2,500. This minimum investment requirement may be waived or reduced for any reason at the discretion of the Fund.
If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-866-896-9292.
Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Referencehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000158064225004429/wavelength497.htm

I don’t trust most fiduciaries. Just because someone holds that title doesn’t guarantee they’ll act in your best interest—or that their advice is good. Yes, it’s better than working with someone who isn’t obligated to prioritize you, but it’s far from a safety net. Some fiduciaries still charge high fees, push unnecessary products, or underperform.
This is what I feel about financial advisors. See (link).

I always remind people. that while its better than nothing, keep in mind that all lawyers technically have a fiduciary responsbility to you as well.
but the catch 22 in that link is correct. most people have 0 idea how well their financial advisor is doing.

PE firms struggle to list holdings or find external buyers.
Some PE firms have resorted to selling assets from funds they manage to newer funds they also manage.
These so-called continuation funds accounted for 19% of all sales in the first half of 2025—
60% higher than a year ago.
"Private equity groups sit on more than $3tn in unsold deals and are nearing four consecutive years
in which they have returned only about half the cash investors traditionally expect."
“'We’re in our third or fourth year of low distributions, the exit environments are challenging
and the IPO market is dormant,' said Todd Miller, Jefferies global co-head of secondary advisory.”
Article may be paywalled
https://www.ft.com/content/88a4e3e3-cefb-48d8-ab81-75cf85039b83
Note: I don't have an FT subscription but was able to read this article.
Input "Private equity firms flip assets to themselves in record numbers" (without quotes) into DuckDuckGo.
The corresponding ft.com article should be presented near the top of the results.
Click on the article and accept cookies.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/23/25
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (36.8%, below average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (29.2%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (34.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +2.8% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (178+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+17 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 76.77% (overbought). US-Japan trade deal was very different from others. US automakers are complaining. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2109/thread

On the conservative side, starting a position in BALT as I read "The Nasdaq-100 just tallied its 60th straight finish above its 20-day moving average — its longest streak since February 1999."
Also starting a position in WAIVX this week, removing MVGAX.

In seeking to provide a significant measure of downside protection on a quarterly basis, the options-based strategy underpinning BALT will likely offer investors an upside cap that is substantially lower than equity Buffer ETFs™ that operate over an annual outcome period.
There are other protected ETF that are yearly, but when started they offered up to 10
Percent per year, but most recent had 6.5 percent yearly cap.

HOBIX lost 2.70% in four trading days last August when one of its largest holdings blew up. Not exactly my cup of tea.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62613/repost-5-star-bond-fund-hobix-loses-over-2-70-in-four-trading-days-this-week/p1
Also as a short term momentum trader if bonds were my only things this year I wouldn’t be impressed with HOBIX three month returns vs the bank loans 2.54% vs 3.82%.
FD. Your way is not the only way. Nor is mine. You are an ultra conservative bond trader. Me not so much.

I can also see that HOBIX was down about 3.5% in March-April, so what's your point?

Please look again.
It was down about 0.5%.

I can also see that HOBIX was down about 3.5% in March-April, so what's your point?

I hardly ever invested in BL and definitely not for over 6 months.
I never used them as a "sub" for MM either.
My goals since retiring in 2018 is to never lose more than 3% from any last top; I did under 1%. Since 2024, it's just 1%. This means I sell any bond fund that loses over 0.5-08% which means more trades.
So while I invested a huge % in 2023-4 in CLO first time ever, in 2025 it's mostly in international bonds. In the last couple of weeks, I've only been 60+% international bonds.
BL is a subset of HY with lower SD because the duration is much lower. But, BL can go down pretty quickly 2-3%. I want to own bond funds that give me longer time to get out in time.
On the other hand, a good trader disregards the past and looks for current opportunities.
Suppose I wanted to own a fund in the last 3 months and my options were EIFAX(BL) vs RSIIX. I will select RSIIX every time based on these funds history, even if EIFAX would do more, see the chart (https://schrts.co/BWtwQURA)
Another example:
Suppose I wanted to use a very stable fund. I prefer HOBIX YTD performance over BL. I refuse to invest in volatile funds (PIMIX) even if I can make more. If PIMIX makes 9% and HOBIX makes 7% in 2025, I would always select HOBIX.
BTW, PIMIX was the first bond fund I bought and mostly held for 7-8 years (2010-2018). It was one of the easiest hold and one of the best risk/reward funds, but the magic has long gone.
See YTD chart of HOBIX,PIMIX, and EIFAX(BL) funds. https://schrts.co/NIbsQtrh
You can see how EIFAX was down 2.5% in March-April and PIMIX was down several times 1.5-2.5% in 2025.
Disclaimer: I currently don't own any of the funds above.

Sometimes you post stuff you wish you hadn’t posted. Bank loans were a transitional trade in lieu of cash. Since April it hasn’t been the time to be conservative. I still like bank loans in lieu of cash but long gone there having made last week my fourth and hopefully last tranche in the emerging market equity fund I mentioned I was in back in April. Sure has beaten the Yugo trading of bond funds. At my age this may be my last hurrah trading equity funds. I mean it has been like 25 years since I was an equity fund centric trader. The smart ones here are those who saw the promise in emerging markets before the herd and have stayed put, @Sven comes to mind. So does @Mona.

Maybe AI likes Krispy Kreme … ? (article by Billy Duberstein)
Time to get back to reading Lewis Carroll’s ”Alice in Wonderland”. Makes more sense than today’s markets.

NOBODY cares about your money as much as you do....including AI.

I dunno, private equity sure seems interested. :)

Re DODBX
Morningstar is showing:
47.01% U.S. equities / long only
17.26 Non-U.S. equities after factoring in a 0.15% short position
32.35% Fixed income
2.44% Cash
1% (+/-) Not classified
M*’s listed PE on the equities is 14.36 which is in the same ballpark as OAKBX and LCORX which I referenced earlier. I was aware 2-3 years ago of a larger short position. Helped them in ‘22. Looks like they might have pulled back.

I doubt that I hold these long, if they deteriorate, they will be gone ASAP. Their only purpose is to do better than my ultrashort fund. The BL beats on the 1-mo and the 3-mo, but seems to be slipping on the 5-day. I'm thinking that I missed their run.

I suppose it might all come down to how people think about things that happened in the past creating patterns that can be discerned into the future.
Or, people better educated than I am can look at the correlation of fund types to each other. Do bank loans have a higher correlation to the sort of equity that would suffer if there was a major correction to the 500?
Seems like there are a lot of smoke signals, but I don't know who is tending the fire.

I doubt that I hold these long, if they deteriorate, they will be gone ASAP. Their only purpose is to do better than my ultrashort fund. The BL beats on the 1-mo and the 3-mo, but seems to be slipping on the 5-day. I'm thinking that I missed their run.

I just had a talk with a friend about diversification etc... He was talking about 60/40 US/INTL and I was talking about just US. So I went and did some back testing using VTSAX (total stock) and VTIAX (total intl) Since 2010, US/INTL only beat US 4 years including this year so far. $10K in US/INTL = ~$44k, $10K in US = ~$64k. I think I'll stick with just US.

I haven't had an INTL component in my portfolio for a decade. And have not regretted it. The reason I am curious now about international is the massive 1st half 2025 out performance. I also wonder if, as some expect, U.S. stocks hit a rough patch in 2nd half, will INTL continue to outpace. I took a small portfolio position (1%) in an international large cap index fund. I am watching closely. The thesis being that U.S. stocks are overvalued and facing some uncertainty/headwinds. But, INTL is undervalued and may benefit from a sort of decoupling effect.