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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Did you go to school in 2020 ?!
    I attended “investment school” only sporadically between 21 and my mid-40s. Getting burned by the bear market in gold post-1980 taught me a lot as I watched the coins I’d bought at the heights of the euphoria steadily loose value while bullion fell more than 50% over a decade or longer. That’s a lesson I’ve never forgotten.
    With a fee-based “advisor” managing my workplace plan from around 1971 until the mid-90s I was largely “in the dark“ - as an underlying principal of that profession is to keep clients uneducated about investments and, hence, dependent on them. That said, at least he had me in what was a pretty good fund in those days, TEMWX.
    My serious schooling began in the mid 90s after reading in the WSJ how 403B investors, seemingly locked-in at one fiduciary, could easily and legally transfer assets in any amount from that custodian to virtually anyone they wanted to due to an existing legislation loophole. The loophole was in later years plugged, but gave me the opportunity during my final 5-10 years of working and contributing to transfer funds periodically out of Franklin Templeton to other houses and, at the same time, “cut the cord” between myself and the fee-based advisor. Also, around than our workplace plan broadened to allow fee-exempt contributions to T Rowe Price.
    Now that I had control over those investments, reading and learning became somewhat of a passion. I found I enjoyed the process. I won’t recount all the newspapers, magazines, books I read back than, as they’re pretty much standard mill and others here have I’m sure also so self indulged. One source stands out. I’d begun reading The Street.com in the late 90s. Bill Fleckenstein published a column on that site and was screaming loudly that something bad was about to happen. So in the late 90 I moved most of my 403B holdings into cash and bonds. The warnings were correct and the tech sector lost something like 75% of its value over the next few years. Broader markets followed suit - to a lesser degree. Likely, it was a case of listening to the right voice at the right time. I’ve learned, however, in subsequent years to take all “expert“ advice with a large grain of salt. If you can’t confirm their bias with your own independent analysis, stand clear of unsolicited financial advice.
    On any given day one’s acquired learning may not seem all that momentous or remarkable. But when you put it all together and reflect over whatever your learning period has been it’s remarkable how much each of us has learned. This board is often a source of that learning. Frequently it works indirectly, however, as something discussed here provokes me to dig deeper into a subject on my own.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    FD said: "In the last 3 months...PRWCX 8%...VLAIX-VLAAX only 4.6-7%..."
    That's all well and good, FD, but why do you keep bringing up PRWCX when it is closed to new investors and, therefore, not an option for those members who prefer to invest in a balanced fund.
    Can you suggest another fund in the 50-70% allocation category that has as excellent a risk/reward profile as VLAIX/VLAAX?
    For example, the fund's M* total return percentile rank in its category is as follows:
    YTD = 14
    3 year = 1
    5 year = 3
    10 year = 3
    Fred
  • Did you go to school in 2020 ?!
    [1] Back when I was still daytrading futures during grad school
    Bad idea. Seldom this type of behavior ends well financially or academically.
  • Did you go to school in 2020 ?!

    I 'went to school' market-wise in 2007-08 during the GFC[1] which means that I did little to anything dramatic during the market gyrations of 2020 ....and little if any of that was on impulse or emotion. If anything, I would sell one thing to immediately buy something else on big swoons. I learned a ton about the markets back then -- and also myself, truth be told.
    [1] Back when I was still daytrading futures during grad school
  • Did you go to school in 2020 ?!
    Thanks Derf - Found it:
    “Assuming the S&P doesn’t erase its year-to-date gain — which it certainly could — 2020 is on track to become another powerful data point in the market history books, which are riddled with examples of price moves in conflict with earnings and valuations.”
    Yep - Doesn’t make sense to me either. I don’t predict markets, school others or or control what happens. Just going along for the ride. But really? You could have made more money just today alone invested in a S&P index fund than if you’d bought a 1, 2, or maybe even 3 year CD and sat patiently waiting for it to mature all the while. Really doesn’t make a lot of sense if you believe that fundamentally values are relative.
  • Did you go to school in 2020 ?!
    Here’s what come up at Yahoo: “Hmmm... the page you're looking for isn't here. Try searching” above.
    From the title, it sounds like somebody’s trying to draw some broad conclusions from the year about to end. Maybe they’re going to suggest that “buying the dip“ is a proven strategy? I dunno. On top of 2019, which was a pretty decent year, 2020 is shaping up to be “too good to be true.” I mean how many eggs can the golden goose deliver when cash yields 0 and bonds 2 or 3%?
    I’m “frozen in the lights“ so to speak. Not doing anything - except have reduced the speculative positions I opened in March & April. Those specs amount to “gambling“ with my nominal cash reserves when I think there’s a special compelling opportunity. Such was the case in March & April. Admittedly, it was a gamble back than because the news on Covid was nasty,
    @Derf - If you have a better link, I’d look forward to reading about whatever it is we’re supposed have learned this year. :)
  • Seeking Yield With Safety

    MWTRX is a good fund but GIBLX has a better record for 1-3-5 years.
    Both are not funds I use since I'm mainly a bond investor in the last several years and their past performance (6% average for 3 years) will not happen in the future.
    I'm also not impressed by LT record, DODGX had a great record years ago but now it trails the "stupid" index SPY for 10 years already
    BTW, I used to be at 80-90% equities until several years prior to retirement where I change gradually to more bonds.

    Can you please explain your comment? Are you saying that you won't buy a fund with good performance because it can't keep up? Not sure how you can be confident that a newer fund will outperform established winners. I have substantial positions in both MWTRX and GIBLX, a very big fan of the latter.

    For the average Joe investor: KISS investing
    1) I believe in using up to 5 (maybe 7) funds
    2) The core portion should be about 70% and use very cheap indexes, the rest may be in managed funds that have something special.
    3) Hardly trade which means looking at your portfolio 1-2 times annually and make small adjustments of 1-2 funds.
    With that in mind:
    1) Core: I would use SPY/VTI for most of my stocks. BIV as my generic bond fund.
    Explore: PRWCX, VWIAX, PIMIX.
    2) Let's check MWTRX and GIBLX in the last 5 years. I don't see MWTRX as anything more/special beyond BIV but GIBLX is different enough which is why I may use it in my explore portion. See 5 year
    chart.
    1) I'm a flexible investor with specific goals. Making over 6% annually using mainly bond funds, be positive every year, SD < 3, never lose 3% from any last top.
    2) I mainly hold very concentrated portfolio of 2-3 funds. I may own a fund, weeks or years. I held PIMIX for 6-7 years, PHMIX for 3 years, IOFIX easily over 50% in the last 3 years.
    3) Even if I own a fund for years, I may sell it for days to several weeks when market conditions are extreme which is one of my goals. This is not your usual trader as someone who buys 10 stocks and keep changing them.
    Well, BIV and MWTRX will get you to the same place over time...but MWTRX has an SD of 3.53 (Sharpe 1.29) versus 5.19/.89 for BIV (still a big fan of BIV when I don't want to get locked into a mutual fund). I must say FD you are quite impressive in your trading skill, no doubt about that but I do question whether you might also get to the same place just holding quality bond funds like these two and say PIMIX. You say you've had very large positions in IOFAX and I recall you jumping out before it cratered, but had you guessed wrong you would have lost significant life savings in a matter of days. I could not live with that possibility...so I'd rather make my 5% to 6% by combining PIMIX with MWTRX, which is what PV say I would have made on average since 2008.
  • Parnassus Endeavor Fund management changes
    From a recent Barron's article (paywalled):
    "Jerome Dodson, the founder of Parnassus Investments and a titan of sustainable investing, is stepping back at the firm he founded."
    "Dodson, who is 77, is leaving the Parnassus Endeavor Fund (ticker: PARWX) and the funds’ board of trustees effective Dec. 31, the investment management company said on Nov. 10. While he will no longer be managing money for the firm, Dodson will remain chairman of the board. He owns more than 60% of Parnassus Investments."
  • Palm Valley Capital (PVCMX) is live at Schwab
    It's also available at TD Ameritrade. Have they added a 12b-1 fee of 25 basis points annually?
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    FD1000: It maybe the only way in,( to acquire the fund).
    Different strokes for different folks, Derf
  • Defensive Flex. Portfolio vs. Low Vol Funds
    You are welcome, @Rickrmf
    Low volatility funds are going to be mostly equities which are invested in consumer staples and other necessities. The average drawdown of low volatility funds that I track was -19% for the past 18 months. The more defensive funds are typically mixed asset or use options to reduce volatility. The average drawdown of the flexible portfolio funds was -10%. Absolute return funds has a drawdown of -8%.
    The risk adjusted return (Martin Ratio) for low volatility, flexible portfolio, and absolute return funds that I track was 0%, 7%, and 5% respectively although performance can vary widely.
    Multi-Strategy Funds had a maximum drawdown of -6%, and Martin Ratio of 3.
    There are many types of multi-asset funds that have lower risk, and higher risk adjusted returns than low volatility funds. I used to own several low volatility funds, but mostly look for multi-asset funds now because of the higher-sleep-well-at-night-factor.
    My articles are based on risk and risk adjusted return among other considerations. Low volatility funds have higher risk that what I am looking for.
    Lynn
  • Rotation from growth to value
    This gentleman opines:
    "The "great rotation" doesn't have to be all that great. In other words, when investors do see a rotation, it may not necessarily mean that all large-cap growth or the "Big 5," i.e. FAAMG, need to be sold.
    It could simply mean that large-cap growth and Tech and many of the names seeing multiple expansion with the COVID-19 lockdown spend a year consolidating the gains of the last 4-5 years, as the underperforming styles and sector laggards like Financials and Energy play a little catch-up."
    Style-Box Strategy Update: The Great Rotation Begins
  • Rotation from growth to value
    Here is one prognosticator's thinking about the durability of the recent value bump.
    Notably, the rotation to "value" is likely premature as these companies specifically require a more robust economy to generate revenue and earnings growth. The current environment is not conducive to that. Expect a reversal of the trade soon, and money rotates back towards "pandemic" related companies.
    image
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4389100-market-breaks-out-on-vaccine-hopes-cases-surge
    But, at least for a short time FMIJX and some other funds with a value tilt have shown some some signs of life!
  • Investing during the next 4 years-plan and not Forecast
    With Biden on fire (expectations), daggers from the left and daggers from the right, conservative Supreme court on the head and Trump breathing fire on his neck - interesting time - how you plan to re-position your investment?
    My plan -> set automatic investment to PHSKX Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth A & VLAAX Value Line Asset Allocation Investor with target allocation to 10%, will sell DSEEX & PARMX to fund.
  • Rotation from growth to value
    2 points:
    1) The average Joe investor needs to own just the SPY which is a blend index. This index will adjust according to the market anyway. No need to worry or make a decision what to do.
    2) The big high tech companies are so dominated they have to participate in any meaningful long term performance.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    FD said: "With that in mind:
    1) Core: I would use SPY/VTI for most of my stocks. BIV as my generic bond fund.
    Explore: PRWCX, VWIAX, PIMIX."
    Since PRWCX in your above "Explore" category is closed to new investors, and has been for many years, shouldn't you replace it with another comparable fund for those of us who are not current shareholders? May I suggest you look at VLAAX/VLAIX, for example, a balanced fund that has very similar risk/reward attributes. Of course, any other suggestions are welcome, too.
    Fred
  • Seeking Yield With Safety

    MWTRX is a good fund but GIBLX has a better record for 1-3-5 years.
    Both are not funds I use since I'm mainly a bond investor in the last several years and their past performance (6% average for 3 years) will not happen in the future.
    I'm also not impressed by LT record, DODGX had a great record years ago but now it trails the "stupid" index SPY for 10 years already
    BTW, I used to be at 80-90% equities until several years prior to retirement where I change gradually to more bonds.

    Can you please explain your comment? Are you saying that you won't buy a fund with good performance because it can't keep up? Not sure how you can be confident that a newer fund will outperform established winners. I have substantial positions in both MWTRX and GIBLX, a very big fan of the latter.
    For the average Joe investor: KISS investing
    1) I believe in using up to 5 (maybe 7) funds
    2) The core portion should be about 70% and use very cheap indexes, the rest may be in managed funds that have something special.
    3) Hardly trade which means looking at your portfolio 1-2 times annually and make small adjustments of 1-2 funds.
    With that in mind:
    1) Core: I would use SPY/VTI for most of my stocks. BIV as my generic bond fund.
    Explore: PRWCX, VWIAX, PIMIX.
    2) Let's check MWTRX and GIBLX in the last 5 years. I don't see MWTRX as anything more/special beyond BIV but GIBLX is different enough which is why I may use it in my explore portion. See 5 year chart.
    My style isn't recommended to anybody.
    1) I'm a flexible investor with specific goals. Making over 6% annually using mainly bond funds, be positive every year, SD < 3, never lose 3% from any last top.
    2) I mainly hold very concentrated portfolio of 2-3 funds. I may own a fund, weeks or years. I held PIMIX for 6-7 years, PHMIX for 3 years, IOFIX easily over 50% in the last 3 years.
    3) Even if I own a fund for years, I may sell it for days to several weeks when market conditions are extreme which is one of my goals. This is not your usual trader as someone who buys 10 stocks and keep changing them.
  • Palm Valley Capital (PVCMX) is live at Schwab
    Looks like Mr. Cinnamond's fund was also added recently at E*Trade (NTF, only $100 min).