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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Where to Go for Income in a Low-Yield World
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/971583/where-to-go-for-income-in-a-low-yield-world
    /Where to Go for Income in a Low-Yield World
    If you're on the hunt for yield, be sure to mind the downside.
    Have you heard about the “war on savers”? Well, brace yourself, savers: This war may well get worse before it gets better./
    Couple ideas re- for incomes
    HY bonds
    Div stocks
    Good quality bonds
    Cash
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    @Crash Is CM's dividend safe? 7+% is an impressive yield.
    I check with "Simply Wall Street" as well as Morningstar, when it comes to single-stocks.
    "SWS" shows CM at an even deeper discount, -48.5% below NAV. They are showing the div as just a bit lower, at 6.82%. (But see below!) "Highly volatile" over the last 3 months, but EVERYTHING has been volatile, lately....The graph shows CM to be less volatile than the industry average, though it's a bit more volatile than the GENERAL market.
    ...Valuation is shown at greater than -50% discount. (NYSE dollars, not Toronto.) 4 out of 6 "analyst checks" are green, 2 are red. Those two are the PEG ration and the P/B.
    "Fair Value" is pegged at $122.64. Price today is $52.22.
    Analyst future growth forecast: not good, so you'd be buying it for the dividend. It's not NEGATIVE, just not much growth is forecasted. "Earnings" are rated as "quality." So I guess that means earnings at CM are not made up of non-recurring items that are exceptions to the rule.
    Financial health: 6 out of 6 green check-marks. Long-term assets are much bigger than liabilities. On the specific spot showing the dividend, it is shown as 8.23%. (It goes ex-dividend on 25th March.)
    "Yield vs. the Market:" 8.2 right now and in three years it is forecast to be 8.4.
    The dividend is judged to be "stable" and "growing." Right now, 50% of earnings are paid out to shareholders, and 49% predicted in three years.
    I hope all of this is useful. :)
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    O’Lordy - Please keep oil at $31 one more day. Got some $$ I’d like to deploy!
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    As for bargains: at the risk of sounding like a broken record: Canadian BANKS. RY CM BMO TD BNS NTIOF. Down YTD between -27% and -42%. CM's div. yield is 7.08% tonight. (Morningstar.)

    I met a Canadian financial advisor on a train trip back in the winter of 2017. He said it was pretty easy work. Just told his customers to buy Canadian banks.
  • MCSMX...Up 10% YTD - Matthews China Small Cap Fund
    Trade War. Tariffs. Corona Virus. Up 35% in 2019.
    Tells you how much Harvard Graduates working on Wall St know.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys ... Old_Skeet's stock market barometer reading remains "pegged" on the high side with a reading of 180 indicating that the markets are extremely oversold based upon the metrics of the barometer. I'm thinking that many investors are having to sell the good stuff to meet margin calls and this has lead to the extreme selling that we are now seeing. For today, the S&P 500 Index declined to a reading of 2481 from yesterday's closing of 2741 which equates to a 9.5% loss for the day; and, a decline of 26.7% from it's 52 week closing high of 3386 just weeks ago. This now puts the 500 Index into bear market territory. I'm also thinking that the momentum remains to the downside until the weaker investors get flushed. Friday may shape up to be a throw back rally as throwback rallies generally follows an extreme down day.
    So, what did Old_Skeet do today? He bought (again) in my equity income sleeve as I currently favor equity income over fixed income. In doing my portfolio's tabulation for today my asset allocation bubbles at 18% cash, 42% income and 40% equity. With this, I have now bought equities at the 8%, 13% 19% and 27% decline marks for the 500 Index.
    My next planned buy will be somewhere off the Index's 52 week high somewhere between -25% (2540) to -30% (2370) and most likely in my equity income sleeve. However, I might hold off my equity buying until next week until how I see the US10YrT closes for week and the Index bubbles.. Seems, thus far for this week, the big down days have been on Monday and Thursday. Perhaps, this will hold true for next week.
    Take care ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    Yes - the ship is tossing and floundering around looking for a port (reminiscent of “The Flying Dutchman” I was planning on seeing in May). I agree with @Catch22’s overall observation. Only a nut like me would try to predict. But here we go:
    - Short rates have turned up since bottoming under 0.5% on the 10 year earlier. Finished at 0.8% today. The current conventional wisdom that U.S. rates will drop to 0 and than keep falling may be wrong. They may now be rising. Might relate to @Mark’s mortgage issue, as mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10 year treasury.
    - Gold’s been hammered. Yet a lot of smart people have been high on it - Ray Dalio, Bill Fleckenstein, Mark Mobius among them. I’ve always thought gold was a manipulated market and this might be the “shakeout” of weaker hands in advance of another rise. Just a guess based on the easy money that’s flooded global markets for years.
    - Equities. I’m amazed when people pour money into a fund that’s up 20, 30, 40% in a year’s time. Somehow that makes sense to them. But after a similar drop in value folks run away. Maybe that works for them. Wouldn’t for me.
    Sorry - Diverging here. So I think (over the next year) it’s down for rate-sensitive bonds, up for the precious metals and sideways for global equities. The virus is nasty. Lot of unknowns. On the other hand - we haven’t been invaded by the Russians (physically), Trump hasn’t lobbed a Nuke at some little country (yet) and a spaceship from another planet hasn’t landed in Manhattan. (It just always looks that way.)
    I’m beginning to rotate slowly out of RPGAX and back into DODBX. Risk reward factor is starting to favor the latter - especially if rates eventually rise, which they’ve long expected and positioned the fund for.
    Best wishes. Stay well.
  • Which great mutual fund that's closed, will be opening because of money outflows?
    Copy of GP email that I received yesterday:
    March 11, 2020
    Dear Fellow Shareholders,
    In light of the COVID-19 outbreak and resultant market turbulence, we are reaching out to share our current plan of action. While we cannot predict the outcome of the current volatility, we do know that market corrections have historically rewarded long-term investors who are able to maintain a steady hand. We recognize the current pain being experienced by market participants, but we strongly believe that our thoughtful, active approach in the face of volatility is what sets us apart. Our research team is using this time to increase communication with our companies, conduct other forms of due diligence and modeling of our companies, comb through our watch lists, and do additional screenings of our investment universe. We are using this environment as an opportunity to meaningfully upgrade the quality of Grandeur Peak portfolios.
    We have been impressed with the confidence that our fellow shareholders have had in us, as demonstrated by very limited redemptions. We share your confidence and have recently invested more of the firm’s balance sheet into the funds. As you may have seen in a press release earlier this week, due to the sell-off, we announced the upcoming launch of the US Stalwarts Fund on March 19. A few of our funds will be moving from hard to soft close, allowing investors the opportunity to buy in this period of market weakness (clients in those specific funds will receive separate communication detailing the changes). Please check www.grandeurpeakglobal.com for the most current fund status.
    Finally, we are taking the health of our team and business very seriously. As a firm, we have suspended all business travel and are converting scheduled meetings with companies and clients to calls or video conferences. We have asked that any employee who has traveled to a Level 2, 3, or 4 country in the last 14 days to self-quarantine. We are also insisting that any employee who has a fever, flu or cold symptoms, or if any family member has symptoms, that the employee stay at home for the duration of the illness and 24 hours after.
    Every one of our employees is set up to work remotely, and we are very used to doing so. We have a thorough business continuity plan that is continuously evaluated and regularly tested. As a lengthier test, all Grandeur Peak employees will be working from home on March 16 and 17. These days, and those leading up to them, are an opportunity for our team to gain 100% confidence in our ability to work off-site for an extended period of time if necessary.
    Thank you for being an investor in the Grandeur Peak Funds. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to our team.
    Best Regards,
    Mark Siddoway, CFA, CAIA, MBA
    Todd Matheny, CAIA
    Amy Johnson, MBA, CFP®
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    @catch22- @davidmoran just posted a link to a current NYT article. Seems that you're not the only one wondering what's happening. Here's an excerpt:
    Wednesday was an unsettling day on global financial markets, and not just because the stock market fell sharply enough to bring a decade-plus bull market to an end.
    Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet.
    Bond prices and stock prices were moving together, not in opposite directions as they usually do. On a day when major economic disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic appeared to become likelier — which might be expected to make typical market safe havens more popular — many of them fell instead. That included bonds of all sorts and gold.
    And there were reports from trading desks that many assets that are normally liquid — easy to buy and sell — were freezing up, with securities not trading widely. This was true of the bonds issued by municipalities and major corporations but, more curiously, also of Treasury bonds, normally the bedrock of the global financial system.
    People, it is fair to say, are worried about bond market liquidity.
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    As of this morning, the Shiller CAPE was 24.46 and falling.
    Good news: that's probably a five-year low.
    Bad news: that 50 year average looks to be 15-20.
    So "the market" isn't classically cheap.
    Sensible grown-ups, El-Erian most recently, are anticipating a 30% drop in the market. That's good news in a way, since we're already down by the low- to mid-20s.
    Bought some cabarnet sauvignon (aged in bourbon barrels, good reviews, $10) at Aldi's yesterday, which represents my big purchases this week. Other than that, I continue to doggedly add my monthly pittance to RiverPark, Grandeur Peak, Seafarer and T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income. Don't see a lot of reason to change, though I know that my allocation is underweight US stocks so I'll need to buy some more BIAWX sooner than later.
    For what that's worth,
    David
  • MCSMX...Up 10% YTD - Matthews China Small Cap Fund
    Ms Hsiao interview on Wealth Track (Dec 2018):

  • MCSMX...Up 10% YTD - Matthews China Small Cap Fund
    In fairness, this fund has under performed MAPIX for most of its existence (2011).
    Here's that chart:
    https://screencast.com/t/5rmnxOrz2
    The fund has two new managers (less than 3 years). Here's the more promising three year chart.
    https://screencast.com/t/5vP4hqnn
    Maybe a combination of these two funds would be a thought.
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    What do you see that is truly cheap on an absolute basis? I bought a little bit of BEN a few days ago at $19.95 because I thought it looked cheap.....well it just got cheaper.
    I think BUD looks cheap today with a 4% yield and at 12 times consensus earnings. It's 60% off of its high. People have been drinking beer for thousands of years -- don't think they'll be stopping soon.
    Anybody see anything (quality) that looks truly cheap on an absolute basis?
  • Morningstar: the most resilient international stock funds
    Using @David_Snowball time frame (2/19 - today) I don't see how M* missed MCSMX:
    Chart comparison to oversea list with MCSMX added:
    https://screencast.com/t/nU2dzaPP
  • MCSMX...Up 10% YTD - Matthews China Small Cap Fund
    All others China region funds are negative (-2% to -12%). Interesting that the China Region funds in general have not been as beat down as US equity funds on a YTD comparison.
    Matthews China Small Cap - MCSMX up 10%
    Any thoughts on its out performance?
    Its upside capture is 137 while its downside capture is 50
    Only $140M in assets
    ER 1.5%
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD1000
    After whatever happened to yield rising Mon and Tues; yields in gov't issues are moving down today (9am); except I expect corp. bonds to lose price again today in continuing down trend.......too much corp. debt and nasty forward company profits.