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What's Cheap, peeps?

edited March 12 in Fund Discussions
What do you see that is truly cheap on an absolute basis? I bought a little bit of BEN a few days ago at $19.95 because I thought it looked cheap.....well it just got cheaper.

I think BUD looks cheap today with a 4% yield and at 12 times consensus earnings. It's 60% off of its high. People have been drinking beer for thousands of years -- don't think they'll be stopping soon.

Anybody see anything (quality) that looks truly cheap on an absolute basis?

Comments

  • Sorry but no . Every purchase I made this week (I was smart enough to not buy last week )was wrong) instead consider my strategy
    Probably too late to sell though I could be wrong. I don't think you should buy because stocks are "cheap". WAit for some news on the health front. THat will be the light at the end of the tunnel. If you buy merely because stocks are down 20+ % the light at the end of the tunnel could be a locomotive.

  • BDCs, emerging markets, small-cap value, some closed-end funds.
  • I can get 3.5% tax-free and risk free by paying on my mortgage. Maybe that is the way to go. I mean, such a deal is not available elsewhere.
  • That's a good deal, but it is not exactly tax or risk free. Tax-wise you are losing some of the deduction you get when you pay mortgage interest unless you have a large mortgage and are above that cap on the deduction. Risk wise, you are locking up liquid assets in your house and that can have opportunity costs and risks.
  • Good points, although mortgage interest is now part of the itemized deductions subsumed under the standard deduction, which is what I take.

    The opportunity cost is definitely true though, and when one considers that there is some level of inflation and also that one can get some small interest on the money (for me in FNSXX) you can definitely make the argument for hanging on to the money.
  • As of this morning, the Shiller CAPE was 24.46 and falling.

    Good news: that's probably a five-year low.
    Bad news: that 50 year average looks to be 15-20.

    So "the market" isn't classically cheap.

    Sensible grown-ups, El-Erian most recently, are anticipating a 30% drop in the market. That's good news in a way, since we're already down by the low- to mid-20s.

    Bought some cabarnet sauvignon (aged in bourbon barrels, good reviews, $10) at Aldi's yesterday, which represents my big purchases this week. Other than that, I continue to doggedly add my monthly pittance to RiverPark, Grandeur Peak, Seafarer and T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income. Don't see a lot of reason to change, though I know that my allocation is underweight US stocks so I'll need to buy some more BIAWX sooner than later.

    For what that's worth,

    David
  • edited March 12
    About a 25% discount on U.S. large caps compared to only a couple months ago. Take that tongue-in-cheek. Stocks may still fall through the floorboards. But 25% off’s nothing to sneer at it either.

    Looking at DJ around 22,000 at the moment compared to 29,000 earlier in year.
  • I'll start sniffing around when things start getting back to "average" PE ratios. Some of mine are still in the 20's --- though probably not after today.
  • We're already at the target (2500 on the S&P) that I set for my dry powder at the start of this mess, but I'm afraid to pull the trigger. I probably will start to scale in soon-ish. Though I can't see any short-term triggers for a meltup, and I can see plenty of reasons for us to keep falling, so I'm not in any hurry.

    On my likely buy list: VDIGX and GPGCX. I might also add a little to my small stake in TDVFX. Super volatile fund, should bounce back if the market does, but sure, right now I wish I'd never bought it.

    Was considering PCI or PDI but yikes, I wish I understood better what was in Dan Ivascyn's magic sauce so I could grasp the risks, but I don't, so I'll probably steer clear.
  • edited March 12
    Hope will stabilize soon
    massive PANICS all over US/world

    Adding vti vde slowly...maybe catching falling knives
  • On the EM side of things, I bought a little BABA Alibaba stock yesterday. I've done well with it in the past and was waiting for it to reach my limit order to get back in, though I know it can still go lower. China's version of Amazon.
  • Stock Market is going to zero.
  • From David Snowball: "...so I'll need to buy some more BIAWX sooner than later." Same, here.
  • @VintageFreak please share your strategy, then? Thanks.
  • As for bargains: at the risk of sounding like a broken record: Canadian BANKS. RY CM BMO TD BNS NTIOF. Down YTD between -27% and -42%. CM's div. yield is 7.08% tonight. (Morningstar.)
  • @Crash Is CM's dividend safe? 7+% is an impressive yield.
  • Crash said:

    As for bargains: at the risk of sounding like a broken record: Canadian BANKS. RY CM BMO TD BNS NTIOF. Down YTD between -27% and -42%. CM's div. yield is 7.08% tonight. (Morningstar.)


    I met a Canadian financial advisor on a train trip back in the winter of 2017. He said it was pretty easy work. Just told his customers to buy Canadian banks.




  • edited March 12
    O’Lordy - Please keep oil at $31 one more day. Got some $$ I’d like to deploy!
  • edited March 12
    carew388 said:

    @Crash Is CM's dividend safe? 7+% is an impressive yield.

    I check with "Simply Wall Street" as well as Morningstar, when it comes to single-stocks.

    "SWS" shows CM at an even deeper discount, -48.5% below NAV. They are showing the div as just a bit lower, at 6.82%. (But see below!) "Highly volatile" over the last 3 months, but EVERYTHING has been volatile, lately....The graph shows CM to be less volatile than the industry average, though it's a bit more volatile than the GENERAL market.

    ...Valuation is shown at greater than -50% discount. (NYSE dollars, not Toronto.) 4 out of 6 "analyst checks" are green, 2 are red. Those two are the PEG ration and the P/B.
    "Fair Value" is pegged at $122.64. Price today is $52.22.

    Analyst future growth forecast: not good, so you'd be buying it for the dividend. It's not NEGATIVE, just not much growth is forecasted. "Earnings" are rated as "quality." So I guess that means earnings at CM are not made up of non-recurring items that are exceptions to the rule.

    Financial health: 6 out of 6 green check-marks. Long-term assets are much bigger than liabilities. On the specific spot showing the dividend, it is shown as 8.23%. (It goes ex-dividend on 25th March.)

    "Yield vs. the Market:" 8.2 right now and in three years it is forecast to be 8.4.
    The dividend is judged to be "stable" and "growing." Right now, 50% of earnings are paid out to shareholders, and 49% predicted in three years.

    I hope all of this is useful. :)
  • @Crash - Do nothing till it gets to zero. Then I will tell you. I can't think that far out:-P
  • Shiller p/e is still higher than at anytime except the last 5-6y, the ~decade following the mid-'90s, and fall 1929
  • Ample opportunities abound when the market drops 1,000 points per days. Still think the bottom has not been reached. When layoff news starts US there will be further decline. This time a quick V-shape recovery is highly unlikely.
  • @Sven- I agree. However, if presidential control should change in the fall, it might help with an upswing. (He said hopefully.)
  • @davidmoran- Yes, the P/E is worrisome. It's going to take one hell of a downdraft to bring that back into historical line.
  • @crash Yes it was useful. Thanks for the research and information !
  • Don't know if that Schiller p/e really applies in the age of zero interest rates. Even in a recession, at some point people want the hope of some kind of return, no? But I too think the bottom will end up somewhere below the levels of last week... This really feels like 2008 to me, with all these jumps up and down, and with a clear possibility (avoided in 2008, hopefully now too) of a truly catastrophic scenario.
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