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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    With the S&P 500 Index is approaching what I feel is good support (3,100 to 3,000) range I did a little equity buying (around the edges) today in a couple of my good dividend paying equity mutual funds that have yields of better than 3%. In comparison, the US10YrT closed today with a yield of 1.33%. I'm now leaning more towards the good equity dividend payers over fixed income while equities are "on sale." I have the S&P 500 Index currently off its 52 week high by about 8% as I write.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    My comment was in regards to currently available information. We know the current mortality rate of the corona virus (2%), and that of the flu (.1%).
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    We do not know yet that COVID-19 is 20x mortality of usual flu. This is a new virus
    to the medical community. Wait and we will find out. The mortality is dependent on adequate medical care. We have the capacity to treat the secondary bacterial pneumonia.( that is the killer). I have the confidence in our medical community. It is not a time for panic.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    As mentioned above the regular annual flu incidence in this country so far is millions and the death rate about 16000. Yet there is no panic.
    My opinion ....the death rate is so much higher in China is because the emergency hospital set ups that they use. Influenza be it COVID-19 , or our usual flu ordinarily is a disease of variable severity. Some people carry the virus with no symptoms or a mild cough. But when it becomes severe which is the minority it kills by progressing into a viral pneumonia and may be complicated by a bacterial pneumonia. The latter is the killer if not properly treated with antibiotics intravenously. When you look at the massive quickly set up China hospital situation some patients may not have the IV antibiotics given to them in a timely fashion. In the US and probably Europe most hospital admissions with flu or COVID-19 are started on IV's immediately and given antibiotics as soon as there is a threat of bacterial infection. Hope this explanation helps to understand that most likely this will not have he same mortality as in China.
  • Muni Yield Curve. Bond yields fall as prices ris
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=8b5WXouwOZK6sgXgkb6gCg&q=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&oq=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3...3162.3162..4327...0.0..0.106.106.0j1......0....2j1.......0.x4yqGNzH18k
    Incognito search for article title
    Rush to Invest in Municipal Debt Pushes Yields to Record Lows - WSJ
    The new wave of demand Monday pushed bond yields to once-unheard-of levels. Yields on high-grade tax-exempt 30-year municipal bonds fell to 1.627% Monday, 46% lower than in February of last year, according to financial analytics company ICE Data
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Tweety Amin just announced a COVID-19 news conference at 6PM. 6PM? Really? I question the timing b/c they're likely trying to mitigate the likely continued market drop when nobody believes what he says. The Asian open should be interesting this evening.
    ... just have this running in the background as you watch/listen to him....

  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    Curious what is holding up best through the 1st couple days of this pullback. I had 2 funds that were positive both days. Both high yield muni funds. My gold ETF after an initial big jump at the start of Monday's trading is now slightly negative. What has been in positive territory for you in this very short view?
    My 2 only positive funds so far over the past 2 days:
    NHMAX +.6%
    NVHAX +.3%
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    I honestly hope this virus runs its course shortly and dies away on it's own.
    Well, now we're at this point; where the general public, who hasn't been paying attention are going to have reports shown more frequently on their tv's. The below two, are the pronouncements that go past the algo trading or whatever else one chooses to determine "profit taking".
    I continue to watch data reports regarding COVID-19, and this in itself is troublesome. And as has been discussed previous, supply chain issues in many market areas; and also to the point of further restrictions in travel, via whatever means. Visa/MC have reduced profit estimates from just 1 month ago, as usage will be down. And what about the Walmarts and $ stores; among all of their product lines. A simple example is that 85% of all toys/games related are imported from China.
    Sanofi and Gilead have noted, among other researchers; that any type of successful vaccine is generally anticipated to have about a 12 month time frame
    I'm not going to drag this further.
    WHO press conference, 'Now is the time to prepare', Feb. 24
    CDC warns of 'severe disruptions', Feb. 25
    There is no mercy in the equity market place at this time, as; even our healthcare and med. tech. is getting the big head slap, which are our only equity exposure at this time.
    Lastly, if you have an alternative view of this post; please comment. I'm only writing about what I interpret to be the current circumstance. Other viewpoints are needed.
    Seriously.....take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Investors prospered by staying the course
    The default investment in many 401K plans is a target-date fund. Target-date funds are less volatile than equity funds and thus easier to hold for many investors. Also, 401k plan participants frequently utilize dollar-cost averaging when purchasing fund shares and thus avoid timing the market.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    @MikeM For awhile means what 10-15-20 % drop ? I missed my chance back in 2018 4/th quarter drop.
    Derf
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    I think the equity market has quite a ways to correct still, so won't touch that for a while. But I will say the muni bond funds I bought in the past month or so were my bright spot today, along with IAU of course (thank you @FD1000 for the NHMAX and NVHAX suggestions).
    Were high yield munis a one day reprieve from the market volatility or truly a safe haven going forward? I don't know. NHMAX up .43% today, NVHAX up .19%.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    But why would they start a province wide quarantine of 11 million people if there was not the danger that hundreds of thousands would die? 80000 people died of the flu in the US in 2018 and we didnt blink.
    Where there is smoke there is fire
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    The one idea I can't get out of my head is the following:
    If COVID 19 is so benign and causes far fewer deaths than the flu, why is China quarantining 300 million people?
    The only reason they would do that, is that they had data that the mortality rate is far far higher when they started the quarantine, ie in late January.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    @MikeM and @MikeW
    Note: GLD and IAU are twins relative to performance.
    The below chart is pre-2008 market melt (May, 2006) to date.
    Comparative chart for GLD, IAU, GDX (gold miners) and SPY (for equity reference)
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Scroll down 1/2 of the page for the graphic.
    Market reactions during virus emergencies
  • Daily Financial News Aggregator
    For those looking for daily Financial News Articles in one place:
    streetsleuth.com/#tab1
    Here's a good one from today's links that relates to Mutual Funds/ETFs:
    https://etftrends.com/smart-beta-channel/how-to-invest-for-the-5g-revolution/
    Topic (Cell Tower REITS) led me to this:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4280713-cell-tower-reits-for-5g-4-beats-3
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    A lot of it depends on your time horizon. My wife and I will remain fully invested in US growth funds and don't anticipate making any changes due to COVID-19. We don't have any emerging market or overseas funds because the US is the premier global economy and we expect it to remain so for years to come.
    However, if the virus starts to seriously disrupt the global supply chain then some of our tech and large-cap funds could definitely be impacted in the short term. But over a 15-20 year time frame I'm not concerned.
    Another factor to consider is that the Chinese communist state has almost certainly deliberately misrepresented the number of infections and deaths. The real number may be 10, 100, or even 1000 times higher than they claim. China's chronic dishonesty may well prove to be the real virus.
    Still, I would strongly advise against making any knee-jerk changes to a portfolio which, like us, you might have taken years to craft.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    First post. Hello all. I think this disease will effect mkts a lot. I have most everything at TRowe inc. my Roth and 403b. Have been in PRHSX and PRGTX along with PRNEX when prices drop for energy or the fund fall into the low 30s at least. Few weeks ago I move most everything to PREMX and PRULX just keeping some shares of the others to keep them open. I got bit a few times when funds closed....
    I have been stalking you all here for a few weeks and know many of you just sit tight and rebalance but I do feel that moving things to bond funds like I have when I have made good gains and the market seems to be about to burst works for me. Of course if GTX drops down to the $14-$15 range I will shift again perhaps. I know I have missed some gains the last 10 years but am still above 8% and some years more still. I am in my mid 40s and need to build not just maintain. Wife's things are with Janus because it sounds like her mom's name (you should see her pick the final 4 LOL) Thanks for adding me, I have been looking for a place like this. Split my board time here and on WUS.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Hi sir..thx for Commentary
    We are staying the course..no changes made
    Will buy more equities if continued downtrend
    Maybe Beginning small limted crash that everyone talks about since 2012 __ !? 20+% downturn before election