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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stock-Picking Pros Beat The Indexers
    @MJG: "I am a long term investor so I hesitate to address issues associated with the influence of "hot money". I just don't play in that arena and have not thought much about it."
    Thanks for your response. It's helpful but may not (as you suggest) answer my fundamental question of how much long-term investors like you are injured by other less disciplined investors who flood funds (including those using passive index based strategies) with money when valuations are high and than stampede out after large market declines. Whether in actively managed or passively managed funds, this herd instinct would appear to work against all of us because the fund is forced to some extent to buy high and sell low. Perhaps I have this wrong. Wonder if there's been any studies attempting to quantify this negative influence, especially regarding actively managed funds.
    Here's a different but related issue with funds: Like you, I am largely buy and hold. But I've been known to speculate on beaten-up (highly focused) funds over very short time frames (measured in months rather than years) and than sell after a nice bounce (may not always work). The fund industry calls this "skimming" and works hard to prevent it. However - if I make a fast 25%-35% profit on a short term speculative venture, I assume that money had to come from somewhere. I further assume it's the "stay-put" long-term investors who picked up the tab. ??
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Don't put all your eggs in one basket !
    Derf
    Been doing just that since 1985. I never was much for conventional wisdom.
    Edit: The above is incorrect. Been doing that since 1966. Just it took me till 1985 to figure out how to turn it into a consistent market beating strategy.
  • Stock-Picking Pros Beat The Indexers
    I've read in more than one place (don't have references at the moment) that managed funds do NOT perform better than indexes/ETFs before, during, or after bear markets.
    But regarding this, I take a long-term view (5-10 years) on everything. A one or two-year record doesn't mean much.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Speaking of the US $$$..
    Jeffery Gundlach in Tue's Webcast did not "pound the table" predicting a higher US $$$$ but stated it would not surprise him to see 120 in the next two years...Also,"don't over analyse" and "keep your seatbelts fastened" Earlier he said he was not interested in becoming US Treasurer.in effect saying " I want to remain brutally honest and politicians are seldom if ever that. ." Closed End Fund Webcast Nov 8th https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1085775
    BUSINESS NEWS | Thu Nov 17, 2016 | 10:56pm EST By Hideyuki Sano | TOKYO Reuters
    Rising U.S. yields help dollar to 13-1/2 year high
    ..rising U.S. bond yields carried the dollar to a more than 13-1/2 year high against a
    basket of major currencies, fueled by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will lead to higher interest rates.
    The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies rose above its "double top" touched in March and December of 2015. The index now stands at its highest level since April 2003. "Double top" is a technical analysis term describing a currency (or other liquid asset) rising to a high, falling, and then rising again to the same level. Breaking the double top is often seen as a bullish sign by technical analysts.
    A rising dollar is particularly a problem for some emerging economies that could see capital outflows if investors shift more funds to the United States.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN13D040?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
    image
    http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-currency.png?s=dxy&v=201611180455r&d1=20110101&d2=20161231image
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
  • Stock-Picking Pros Beat The Indexers
    Here is a more accessible version:
    http://mobile.usablenet.com/mt/www.barrons.com/articles/4-managers-who-consistently-beat-the-market-1452318197
    I thought Ahlsten was responsible for Dodson's latterday success, but am out of that family.
  • Stock-Picking Pros Beat The Indexers
    Hi Guys,
    Nothing could be more misleading than the title of this referenced article. The article does acknowledge that there are smart active fund managers among many who are not so smart, but time and fees work against the small cohort of successful active fund managers.
    Here is a Link that summarizes just how small that cohort of smart active fund managers is:
    https://www.justetf.com/uk/news/passive-investing/the-proof-that-active-managers-cannot-beat-the-market.html
    The odds are not attractive. This article clearly demonstrates the high percentage of actively managed funds that fail to beat appropriate benchmarks. I was surprised by the dismal records registered by funds outside the US marketplace. I wrongly believed that foreign operated actively managed mutual funds were superior in their limited market sphere. The data seems to demonstrate otherwise.
    Although forecasting which funds will be winners in the future is a hazardous challenge, some actively managed funds have terrific past performance records. So history can serve as an imperfect guide on the basis that positive momentum might persist. Recently I have added a mix of Index products to my portfolio, but I still own a few actively managed funds that have delivered acceptable performance.
    Market beating funds are out there. They are few in number so they may be difficult to find. The long term performance records do identify some of these attractive products. Here is a Link to a short list published by Barron's:
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/4-managers-who-consistently-beat-the-market-1452318197
    Although the list is very short, it is supplemented with some near misses that are also identified. Hope is eternal. Enjoy and profit.
    Best Wishes.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    All of the above illustrates the dilemma of finding a way to wring income out of a sector ( Bonds) that is so overbought. Look what has happened to Munis in the last two weeks.. an entire year's income gone.
    I had a large position in FFHRX in May 2015 after which it lost 9% in the next nine months, souring me on BL funds for a while
    Kiplinger's Income Newsletter portfolio ( widely diversified with MLPs, Taxable and Muni Bond Funds, Dividend stocks) has had an income return of about 16 % since 1/1/2014 (about 6% a year) but the principal has declined 5% in that time so a retiree would see their nest egg shrink (and it was far worse in March before the current rebound in energy!)
    A quick M* chart from May 2015 to March 2016 of some of the above funds shows losses of up to 8% ( RSIVX ), and of course those funds with the higher yields lost the most. PONDX somehow sailed right thru, but the leverage is a huge concern.
    No one has mentioned ZEOIX which held up nicely but still pays 2.4% . Maybe better to accept a lower income stream (if you can) than to see your money melt away as rates rise.
    There is no such thing as a free lunch
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    @Joe - As noted in the Investopedia page cited by @AndyJ, these bank loan notes have fairly high recovery rates, because they are collateralized and because they are senior to other debt. That doesn't affect the risk of default, but it does mean that you can expect to lose less than "ordinary" junk when they do default. So it is reasonable to count on getting back a good chunk of principal (not interest).
    You can find retail share classes of these funds in Schwab OneSource: LABAX is there, BASIX is offered, and LALDX is open as well.
    Remember, BobC is a professional. Don't try his share classes at home. :-)
    Thanks for the leverage note on PONDX. Its a good fund, well managed. But I remember having taken a look at it and noticing something. I'd forgotten what that something was. Here's a M* thread on the fund's risks (w/contributions by Sam Lee).
  • Down But Not Out: Vanguard Says Trump Rules Cull Won’t Hurt ETFs
    "Trump adviser ... Scaramucci has compared the fiduciary rule [for IRAs, 401Ks] to the infamous Dred Scott decision, a 1857 Supreme Court ruling that denied black Americans citizenship."
    Would that be because the SEC rule would hold financial advisors slaves to the truth? I'm really having trouble parsing this comment.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    FWIW, I ran a M* screen on taxable bond funds with duration greater than 4, and found 525 distinct funds (one share class per fund). Of these, over 40% (212) had three month returns greater than -2.0%. That's not to say that one would want to own many of these 212 funds, just that they're not hard to find if one looks at the whole universe of funds.
    Reiterating what I wrote above, what matters is not what's in the rear view mirror, but what one expects going forward. If further changes in rates are moderate (albeit volatile), then one can get modest positive returns going forward without taking on additional credit risk.
    One of those risks is linked with interest risk, because if rates do rise quickly that can be detrimental to businesses and thus trigger defaults. On the other hand rates can rise is response to an improving economy. In that case, risk of defaults goes down.
    Why take on duration risk? Because the higher yield (especially now that rates have risen) can mitigate some of that risk. Following the suggestion of using short duration funds, I ran a second screen for funds yielding over 4% (TTM) having duration under 1.5%. Just 38 funds showed up, of which over half (20) were bank loan funds.
    Five were junk bonds. Most of the rest were "nontraditional", meaning almost anything. There was also one multisector bond - RSIVX. I'm sure several people here can comment on that option.
    Personally, my feeling is that in uncertain times don't just do something, stand there. Especially if you have built a well diversified portfolio.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Just a comment that we track about 85 fixed-income funds and ETFs. Of that, only 20 are positive for the last three months. And only 8 are up more than 1%. My observation is that investors should be in relatively short durations, since with few exceptions any fund with a duration greater than 4-5 is down 2-10% during the last three months. As fears of significantly higher inflation and rates ease, the picture should become clearer, but why take on duration when you can get a 4-5% yield with a duration of less than 1.5? Like others, I am skeptical of the flight to floating rates and am fearful this play could become problematic. We still like OSTIX, LASYX, BSIIX, LLDYX, and PONDX.
  • TEST: etf ticker symbol versus std. 5 letter fund ticker, lost highlight and thus linkablility
    Here is a screen capture of your first entry which shows IEF neither blue nor underlined. PIMIX is blue, underlined and I can select it for research.
    image
  • TEST: etf ticker symbol versus std. 5 letter fund ticker, lost highlight and thus linkablility
    Hi @chip
    The below, with missing highlight for etf's, started/changed around Nov. 10. At least with this laptop.
    Anyone else find the same status?
    Thank you and Regards,
    Catch
    IEF
    PIMIX
  • A Tale Of Two Investors
    Hi Guys,
    There are many "tale of two investors". Ted has referenced one of them. Ted, it's a superior post. I loved it.
    I find yet another tale of two investors more educational. Here is the Link to it:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-solin/a-tale-of-two-investors_b_5206530.html
    I am much more like Mary in the story; I suspect many MFOers are like Paul. That's what makes for a marketplace.
    Here is yet another Link to yet another tale of two investors:
    http://fortune.com/contentfrom/2015/5/13/tale-of-two-investors/ntv_a/T7wBAJ7oCAfxgFA/
    This reference features a rather strong advocacy for supplemental Monte Carlo analyses to backstop the investment decision. So do I. Monte Carlo techniques were developed during WW II while searching for the atomic bomb secrets. Monte Carlo helped at that time and can help once again. It was developed to explore likelihoods under uncertainties. That defines the marketplace, so Monte Carlo is a natural winner here.
    If nothing else, I am constant in my postings.
    Best Regards.
  • Era Of Low Interest Rates Hammers Millions Of Pensions Around World
    @Ted. Thank you for the link.
    My biggest take away from some of the words related to some of the pension funds is that; let us (pension fund managers) blame the sad state of affairs of gains since the market melt 9 years ago on low yields. The pension funds are going to run out of money and/or be forced to reduce future benefits or BOTH. Hell yes, they are and will. Guess that underfunding doesn't help much either, eh?
    From the article:
    Government-bond yields have risen since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, though few investors expect a prolonged climb. Regardless, the ultralow bond yields of recent years have already hindered the most straightforward way for retirement funds to recover—through investment gains.
    >>> So, no investment gains from price appreciation that many bond types have had over the past nine years??? Ya, right! If these managers have not made money from bonds in past years, they need to find new work. Losses in other investment areas have likely offset bond price gains.
    From the article:
    Pension officials and government leaders are left with vexing choices. As investors, they have to stash away more than they did before or pile into riskier bets in hedge funds, private equity or commodities. Countries, states and cities must decide whether to reduce benefits for existing workers, cut back public services or raise taxes to pay for the bulging obligations.
    >>>Prior discussions and links here at MFO have indicated performance problems with many large pension funds. Perhaps that should have invested in something like VWINX and/or a simple 50/50 equity/bond mix with 4 holdings.
    Educated, smart folks; who are not the sharpest tools in the investment world shed! Perhaps hire a few more hedge fund managers.......oh, wait; these managers are being fired by numerous funds!
    10 year annualized returns sampler on the simple side of investment life:
    --- IEF = 5.5%
    --- TLT = 6.7%
    --- LQD = 5.5%
    --- TIP = 4.1% (even the lowly regarded TIP is far above this percentage using simple moving averages for buys and sells)
    --- VTI = 7.1%
    --- SPY = 6.8%
    --- IWM = 6.7%
    --- QQQ = 11.4%
    --- VWINX = 6.7%
    Pick any 4 of the above and one still finds an average of about 6.2% annualized over 10 years. Yes, I know; not much diworsifiers in the above choices. Build your own pension fund and post here, eh?
    Problems with the future of many pension funds and survival are real. Problems with this also result from the skill set of much of the management(s).
    Other than these, all is well with the world.
    ...etf ticker highlight test IEF QQQ
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Ben Carlson: The Bright Side Of Rising Interest Rates
    "If you have a time horizon of 5 years or longer, you should actually hope for a rising rate environment. You’ll be better off for it in the end."
    I think that would depend a lot on what kinds of bonds you own right now. If you own bonds with a relatively short maturities, rising rates could provide an opportunity to reinvest for greater investment income. If your bonds have very long term maturities, rising rates could mean (a) waiting a very long time to reinvest at higher interest rates, and/or (b) having to sell the long term bonds at a loss in order to reinvest at higher interest rates.
    Nick de Peyster
    http://undervaluedstocks.info/
  • BILTX DL Infrastructure
    According to the fact sheet, 1/3 is project financing, which is more or less the taxable equivalent of what I was describing with muni revenue bonds. That is indeed different from corporate financing.
    In contrast, structured products are basically debt issued by a corporation with a synthesized risk/reward profile. A simple example is a principal protected (aka equity-linked) note. ETNs are another example of structured products. They can get much more complex.
    The point is, there is an issuer (usually a corporation) and these are obligations of that issuer. These are forms of corporate debt. FWIW, that's also the way M* counts them (it says 2/3 of the portfolio is corporate debt).
    Some of the target allocations and similar information described in the Core-Solution doc don't appear in the prospectus. So I'm not sure they represent much more than a hope. In contrast, the target credit range of BB-BBB is somewhat represented in the prospectus, that states that the fund intends to invest over half its assets in investment grade investments.
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    That after what occurred in Treasuries yesterday. The rout in Treasuries since their most recent bottom (BREXIT) would qualify as a major rout in so short of a time.
    Foretold here and posted on this site. I'm watching high yield bonds for an entry point. This move has nothing to do with the reality of the the USA/world economy. This move may go on until after the state of the union speech.
    The emerging markets action is probably more a factor of a stronger US$, which is due to the increase in treasury yields. If anything, the higher US$, if it continues, will slow the US economy due to lower exports. Then the pressure should be for lower rates!
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2016/10/22/the-scariest-chart-for-bond-yields/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#69616508ed70
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    Reminder
    Gundlach to host his first post election webcast Tue November 15th
    DoubleLine Asset Allocation - Core Fixed Income & Flexible Income Live Webcast
    hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, November 15, 2016 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET / 3:15 pm CT
    Register here:
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085785