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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AdvisorShares Plans Vice ETF: (ACT)

    It'll be interesting to see how its composition will compare to VICEX with its 1.45 ER.
  • AdvisorShares Plans Vice ETF: (ACT)
    FYI: A filing from AdvisorShares outlines the firm’s plans to launch an actively managed ETF that will target companies involved in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage or marijuana industries. The AdvisorShares VICE ETF (ACT) is slated to list on the NYSE Arca and come with an expense ratio of 0.75%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/advisorshares-plans-vice-etf
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    As far as the CD - ZEOIX comparison, ZEOIX has averaged about 3% return over the last 5 years, 2.8% over the last 3. You can now get a CD through Goldman Sachs Bank at 2.4%. Personally, if you are working outside a brokerage, I would ladder 5 year CDs as opposed to owning ZEOIX, but to each their own.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Weekly Win For U.S. Stocks In Jeopardy As Russia Probe Moves Closer To Trump
    FYI: U.S. stocks were setting up for a slight pullback Friday, putting weekly gains for the S&P and Dow average in jeopardy, as traders assessed the latest developments in an ongoing investigation into Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election last year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    U.S.: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-win-for-us-stocks-in-jeopardy-as-russia-probe-moves-closer-to-trump-2017-11-17/print
    U.S.: (IBD)
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/the-new-growth-stocks-are-wal-mart-cisco-gm-sp-500-futures/
    U.S.: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/us-stock-futures-earnings-data-tax-on-the-agenda.html
    Asia-Europe-U.S.: (Bloomberg)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/stocks-in-asia-to-climb-in-end-to-tumultuous-week-markets-wrap
    Europe: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-stumble-on-company-news-broker-downgrades-2017-11-17/print
    Europe: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-stocks-claw-back-losses-but-set-for-second-weekly-fall-idUSKBN1DH02Y
    Europe: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/european-markets-earnings-data-draghi-speech.html
    Asia: MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-rallies-looks-to-notch-10th-straight-weekly-gain-2017-11-16/print
    Asia: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-rises-to-1-week-high-but-breaks-9-week-winning-streak-idUSL3N1NN2CP
    Asia: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/asia-markets-global-equities-tax-reform-oil-prices-in--focus.html
    Current Futures: Mixed
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    I see pluses and minuses for the fund. I looked at it a couple years ago in my IRA and decided it wasn't worth the cost, high exp. ratio and TF at Schwab. If you are using it as a "superior mattress fund" outside a brokerage, wouldn't buying a 5 year CD be even more comfy thean that mattress fund? CD's make about the same yearly return and (IM<HO) CD's have no place to go but up. HY bonds, even very short term, you can't guarantee the same. In fact down is more likely.
    You won't get very good CD or money market rates at a brokerage, so if that's the case ZEOIX may be a good option. But if you are talking money that has more options, money that you want to stash in a safe place, I wouldn't go there. I'd start looking at CD's.
  • Baird LargeCap Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282693/000089418917006085/baird-lrgcap_497e.htm
    497 1 baird-lrgcap_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    Rule 497(e)
    1940 Act File No. 811-09997
    1933 Act Registration No. 333-40128
    BAIRD FUNDS, INC.
    Supplement to Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
    and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
    As Previously Supplemented September 29, 2017
    Baird LargeCap Fund
    (Investor Class: BHGSX)
    (Institutional Class: BHGIX)
    The Board of Directors of Baird Funds, Inc. (the “Company”), based upon the recommendation of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), the investment adviser to the Baird LargeCap Fund (the “Fund”), has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board has concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company effective as of the close of business on or about December 28, 2017 (the “liquidation date”). As previously announced, Baird and L2 Asset Management, LLC (“L2”), the Fund’s subadviser, have mutually agreed to terminate the Sub-Advisory Agreement between Baird and L2 and the Fund was closed to new purchases and incoming exchanges effective after market close on October 4, 2017 (except purchases made by existing accounts of current shareholders of the Fund and purchases made through the automatic reinvestment of Fund distributions).
    The Board has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Although the Fund is closed to most new purchases, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund as provided in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    The Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and cash equivalents in order to prepare for the orderly liquidation of the Fund. As a result, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment objective, policies and strategies. All remaining assets held by the Fund will be liquidated as of the close of business no later than December 22, 2017. Baird will bear all expenses of the liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s customary fees and operating expenses.
    Pursuant to the Plan, shareholders who have not exchanged or redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the liquidation date will have their shares redeemed in cash and will receive one or more payments representing the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the liquidation date, subject to any required withholdings. Shareholders (other than tax-qualified plans or tax-exempt accounts) will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes on the redemption of their Fund shares in the liquidation. In addition, the Fund and its shareholders will bear the transaction costs and tax consequences associated with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings prior to the liquidation date. The Fund expects to make a distribution of net capital gains and net investment income, if any, on December 26, 2017, with a final distribution of the proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund to be made promptly following the liquidation date. Shareholders should consult their tax adviser for further information about federal, state and local tax consequences relative to their specific situation.
    Important Information for Retirement Plan Investors
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of redeeming Fund shares. If you hold your Fund shares through a tax-deferred retirement account, you should consult with your tax adviser or account custodian to determine how you may reinvest your redemption proceeds on a tax-deferred basis. If you will receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA that is terminating as a result of the liquidation of the Fund, you must either roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year, if applicable, or request the distribution be made directly to another IRA or eligible retirement plan. Please note you can make only one tax-free rollover of a distribution you receive from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 12-month period, regardless of the number of IRAs you own. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you must roll the distribution into an eligible retirement plan within 60 days in order to avoid disqualification of the plan and inclusion of the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectus for future reference.
    The date of this Prospectus Supplement is November 16, 2017.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    The "technicalities" concern owning just one fund. By hypothesis, one would have to divest of other investments prior to going on that "three hour tour". So an investor would be stuck with lots of cash (as well as holding that fund) if the fund were presently (hard-) closed.
    The possibility that the selected fund might close in the future while one is on that island is of no import, because even hard closed funds allow reinvestment of dividends. Thus a purported advantage of passive investments (that they don't close) isn't real.
    With that in mind, would you reconsider your newly stated preference for passive investments? Also, what does "equity instrument" mean? Does it include ETNs, individual securities, perhaps even perps, or just mutual funds?
    I agree with the "global equity" aspect, and stated so previously. I didn't suggest a fund because (with a cursory look) I didn't see one that particularly excited me. The usual suspects all seem to be showing signs of bloat, and few others stand out (to me).
    FLPSX has been suggested - it's virtually a global fund anyway (50/40 US/foreign). But it is also huge (Tillinghast manages other funds as well in a similar style) and has management risk (Tillinghast is 59, and Fidelity started adding comanagers six years ago). I'd also prefer something with more EM exposure. DODWX is better with EM exposure, but is lacking in small (or even midcap) exposure.
  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Crashes
    FYI: It looks like all of the negative talk from some high profile investors in recent days has made its way into the heads of individual investors, causing them to turn increasingly bearish on equities. According to this week’s sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment crashed from 45.1% down to 29.35%. That’s the largest one-week decline since April 2013! With bullish sentiment now sporting a 20-handle, it’s also safe to say that the streak of sub 50% readings that has been in place for 150 straight weeks now won’t be broken anytime soon.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bullish-sentiment-crashes-2/
  • M*: Dodge & Cox: Built To Last
    FYI: (The Linkster has always been a fan of this San Francisco treat.) (Speaking of funds to hold 10-15 years, how about DODGX and DODFX.)
    Dodge & Cox sets a high bar for the asset-management industry. Its many investor-friendly attributes continue to earn the firm a Positive Parent Pillar rating.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=836682
  • “Hindenburg” with a “Titanic,”
    On Tuesday November 14, the number of NYSE stocks setting new 52-week lows surged above the number of stocks setting new highs, with both figures representing more than 3% of total issues traded. This “leadership reversal” joins the deterioration in our own measures of market internals last week, as well as ongoing dispersion in market breadth and participation. As noted in the chart below, this couples a “Hindenburg” with a “Titanic,” and is actually the first time since July 2007 that we’ve seen this particular combination of internal deterioration.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs171114/
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    @slick,
    Maybe you know this, but you can actually buy TF funds at Fidelity by setting up an automatic investment (this usually has to be at least the day after you enter the trade, and can’t be a “sell a fund and use the proceeds to buy another” type transaction), once you own said fund. This drops transaction fees of “automatic investments” to $5.
    Set the auto investment to occur monthly, as an example, and once the buy executes, you cancel the auto investment and you have just added to VWINX for $5 :)
    Let me know if this doesn’t make sense, please.
  • Buy - Sell - and - Ponder November 2017
    Added to Target (TGT) on the 10% beatdown today. I guess Black Friday is coming earlier and earlier.
    @Mark, I see holiday shopping forecasts are down which caused the Target drop. Pretty big 1 day drop.
    I have a different approach to consumers buying habits. I've been watching FDX for a little while hoping it's price comes down some. My thought and what I've read is this is a play on internet shopping, pretty much riding the Amazon trend without investing in the high valuations Amazon has now. FedEx also dropped today (2.5%) with the holiday shopping forecast but not as much as TGT. FDX has to drop another 9% for my limit order to kick in.
  • Three Frost Funds liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542817001052/frost-497.txt
    TYPE>497
    1
    frost-497.txt
    THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
    FROST CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND
    FROST MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND
    FROST AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION FUND (THE "FUNDS")
    SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 15, 2017 TO THE
    INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS,
    EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6,
    2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017 AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND
    THE STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS
    SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6, 2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017
    AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "SAI")
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED
    IN THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
    PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
    Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Funds, has approved
    a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of each Fund's assets and
    the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund's shareholders. In
    connection therewith, the Funds are closed to new investments. The Funds are
    expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about December 22, 2017 (the
    "Liquidation Date").
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
    the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of each
    Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
    prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will distribute to each such
    shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
    distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
    the Funds as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Funds, the Adviser may manage each
    Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by
    holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result,
    during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner
    consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund
    from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amounts will include any accrued income and
    capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will
    generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor
    concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on
    the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund.
    However, the net asset value of each Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect
    costs of liquidating the Fund.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FIA-SK-045-0100
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    Regarding VGWIX, VGWAX, etc., my global allocation fund of choice is SGENX, available load-waived at Schwab. If bonds are needed, may be supplement with PONDX. I have owned SGENX for a very long time. My other long-term holds (>10 years, some >15 years) are OAKBX, FPACX, MACSX.
  • Ben Carlson: Caution Alone Is Not An Investment Strategy
    Hi all,
    It is for sure some will have greater success at positioning than others. I have found it best for me to allocate even within the growth area of my portfolio where no sleeve is less than 20% nor greater than 30%. In this way, I don't put too much, or to less, into a sleeve. Thus far it has worked well. Last year my small/mid cap sleeve lead. This year it trails with the other three sleeves (large mid cap, global growth and specialty/theme) being the producers. And, even the small/mid cap sleeve has produced year-to-date (at just short of 7%); but, just not as much as the others.
    We each have our style of investing. For me, I am for the most part an asset allocator who plays around the edges and moves some money from time-to-time based upon my read into what I perceive will be the faster moving currents within the market.
    But, to do this I have to continue to be a good student following the markets as they are forever changing. And, that is why I maintain both a domestic and global market compass as well as my market barometer that follows and scores certain aspects the S&P 500 Index and scales it into a barometer reading.
    Many years ago I enjoyed some weekend visits to the dog track betting the dogs. One of my strategies was to bet three dogs to win, place or show as it produced more winning proceeds for me over betting one dog to win. So, I modified this betting strategy and incorporated it into my investment portfolio.
    For me, it has worked well. Both, at the track and within my portfolio.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Terrific Twos: the top-performing two-year-old funds
    We thought we’d start continue up with the 130 U.S. equity funds which have passed their second anniversary but have not yet reached their third, which is when conventional trackers such as Morningstar and Lipper pick them up. As Charles has repeatedly demonstrated, the screener at MFO Premium allows you to answer odd and interesting questions. When markets are rising, everybody’s question is the same: who’s making the most?
    There are two ways to answer that. One way is to look at total returns. As of Halloween (our data is current as of the end of last month), the clear winner is the $8 million Zevenbergen Genea (ZVGIX) fund, a focused fund with an emphasis on tech. (What’s a “genea”? Old Greek word related to “genealogy,” it sometimes signals “a generation,” which aligns with the fund’s emphasis on have a long-term view.)
    Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
    Multi-Cap Growth
    23.6% annualized return since inception through October 2017
    ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Health Care ETF SPXV
    Large-Cap Core
    18.1%
    Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
    Specialty Diversified Equity
    17.9%
    ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Energy ETF SPXE
    Large-Cap Core
    17.8%
    Alambic Small Cap Value Plus Fund ALAMX
    Small-Cap Value
    17.8%
    Sometimes a fund is good not because the fund is good, but because its investment style or focus is hot. For example, a hot energy market makes even bad energy fund managers look like geniuses. You’ll notice that two of the six top performers are distinguished for what they did not invest in: “ex Health Care” and “ex Energy” tells you that these funds are winning just because the excluded sectors are, for now, losing.
    To control for that, we can look for funds that are distinctive better than their peers. Seven funds are beating their peers by more than 5% per year so far, with 50% of those being passive.
    Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
    Specialty Diversified Equity
    17.9% APR since inception
    13% annual lead over their (in this case, irrelevant) peer group
    Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
    Multi-Cap Growth
    23.6% APR
    10.7% annual lead of their peers
    ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF SMDV
    Small-Cap Core
    15.5% APR
    7.2% lead
    HCM Dividend Sector Plus Fund HCMZX
    Equity Income
    14.9% APR
    7% lead
    ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF REGL
    Mid-Cap Core
    13% APR
    6.1% lead
    VictoryShares US Small Cap High Div Volatility Wtd Index ETF CSB
    Small-Cap Growth
    13.8% APR
    5.8% lead
    Invesco PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility Portfolio XRLV
    Multi-Cap Core
    13.4% APR
    5.2% lead
    Only two of the six funds with the highest total returns are also substantially leading their peers. Half of the peer beaters consciously factor dividends, which sometimes signals the quality of a firm’s management, into their strategies.
    Bottom line: it’s not important to know that a fund is winning. It’s important to know why a fund is winning. That’s hard to suss out, but relative performance and some idea of portfolio biases gives you a place to start.
    Off to Dallas for a professional conference. Pray for me!
    David
  • TCAPX new TRP fund. Plan is to pay divs. monthly... Not open yet. I just called TRP...
    @Crash
    Here is a response from TRP that was recently posted to the M* forum site:
    "This being Nov 7, I checked on the status of this fund with TRP today. I was informed that the inception date has been postponed to "the middle of next year". Vague explanation, no additional information available. :-( "
    See:
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/377522/3871721.aspx#PageIndex=2
    I had planned to put some available $'s into TCAPX instead of adding to my existing investment in VWINX.....but may rethink that plan....
  • Favorite Fund Exposure for Europe?
    BCSVX is new, but it is strong out of the gate. 65% developed and developing Europe. The current portfolio has sizable dollops of large caps and mid caps, despite its stated small cap orientation. I am surprised that Brown Capital has done as well as it has with this fund because its other international offering is run-of-the-mill. From what I could glean from their website, no new manager(s) were hired to run this fund. I own some.
  • Mark Hulbert: When You Realize How Much Luck Goes Into Investing, You Might Change Your Methods
    Most market crashes have a trigger and in a lot of cases that's unexpected. The economy both in the US and globally is doing reasonably well and appears to be picking up. Even the skeptics accept that a recession isn't very likely at the moment. I would tend to view what's been happening so far in November as consolidation rather than worry but that's just my humble opinion.
    @MJG, I think it reinforces your point but if someone gets 5 out of the 8 forecasts you mentioned correct they're brilliant. A lot more of the guys who are able to get 5 right are lucky but in the same vein they look, and probably claim they're really smart.