I have no bitcoin/crypto experience at all except for knowing that it has been incredibly volatile and speculative throughout its history. Yet I'm intrigued by the following article about upcoming momentum fueled by government support for bitcoin as an asset class. The only investment vehicles I'm aware of for bitcoin are the etf's GBTC and IBIT as well as other etf's listed in the article below. Trump seems to want to make the USA the bitcoin capital of the world. If he keeps his word (a big if) then might bitcoin become an asset class and therefore even more investable? Elon Musk holds a large amount of bitcoin.
I welcome thoughts and opinions about bitcoin. Thanks in advance for any and all comments!
Goldman Sachs Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings To $710 Million
BENZINGA
Nov-15-2024 10:11 a.m. ET
Goldman Sachs (GS) has dramatically increased its exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs, according to its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.
What Happened: The Wall Street powerhouse disclosed $710 million invested across multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the quarter ending September 30. A 13F filing is a quarterly report required by the SEC for institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets.
Major Holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust
The filing highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust , with 12.7 million shares valued at $461 million.
This marks an 83% increase from its August holdings of 6.9 million shares, then valued at $281 million, and solidifies Goldman's position as the second-largest holder of IBIT, trailing only Millennium Management, which leads with $844 million in holdings.
Diversifying Bitcoin ETF Investments
Goldman also boosted its positions in other prominent Bitcoin ETFs. Notable increases include:
Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF : 1.7 million shares worth $95.5 million, a 13% rise.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC): 1.4 million shares valued at $71.8 million, a 116% increase.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) : 650,961 shares worth $22.5 million, marking a 156% rise.
The bank also reported smaller stakes in Bitcoin ETFs offered by Invesco Galaxy, WisdomTree and ARK 21Shares.
Institutional Confidence In A Booming Market
Goldman's expanded investments coincide with record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recently surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in net assets, an impressive milestone considering IBIT's launch occurred just this January.
The rising momentum aligns with broader market optimism for a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged support for crypto mining and a national Bitcoin reserve.
Goldman's aggressive moves into Bitcoin ETFs underscore the shifting landscape for digital assets, signaling increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset class.

I believe Trump watches stock market pretty carefully (one can never be sure, Trump has no fixed core, he has no issues flipping 5 times on a position in 5 minutes) and uses that as a measuring stick for success.
Imo 60% China tariff is a bluff to get China to the bargaining table. Trump has used these kind of outrageous bluffs throughout his career. If indeed he goes with it AND stock market tanks, there will be a quick reversal of policy or some middle ground compromise.
All speculation of course, forget his inner circle, not even Trump himself knows what his position will be in in the next 5 mins. So I pay no attention to whatever his "inner circle" is stating. Lighthizer is a tool as is everybody else around him.

So, do I need an etf made up of US Enterprises that construct and maintain pipelines, reserve storage tanks, and other things that provide capicity to accomodate the flow problems associated with oversupplies or will the rest of the world save their supplies for tomorrow and just use our cheap supplies until they are gone? I guess I should, after more than 40 years, just sell my little bit of Chevron before gasoline falls to 25 cents again. ( As a teen I could take my mom's car, go places other than I said, and refill the tank for a quarter a gallon before going home.)

We took profit on our US equity and bond % since the election concluded. Lost confidence in both.
The likelihood of soft landing scenario is fading as sticky inflation and employment number. FED is in no hurry to cut rate in December and there is likely fewer cuts in 2025. DT policy will add to federal deficit and higher inflation. There is no free lunch when the imported cheap goods are facing 60% higher tariff.

@stayCalm. Thanks for your thoughts.
Those data centers aren't going to run on petroleum products pumped out of the ground. If Trump wants to drill baby drill, he's pushing string. We're already the largest oil producer in the world; gas is cheap, Israeli attacks on Iran barely move the needle, and refineries are being converted to bio-fuels, or being closed. Energy independence is here.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/05/02/us-energy-independence-soars-to-highest-levels-in-over-70-years/
https://www.newsweek.com/us-energy-independence-first-time-40-years-1878729
As for the rest of your thoughts, that's why I started small positions in PAVE, GRID, and AIRR in the taxable. I think they're going to have a hard time killing the IRA, well, except maybe for sticking it to Elon when they cancel the tax incentive for EV's.

Other considerations: lack of liquidity implies a premium to return. However the underlying investments seem to be liquid, so it's an artificial restriction. Redemption offer via tender in August (only one this year) was limited to 5% of NAV. Also, to the extent the debt is in foreign currency that will be a +/- element in returns. That's been a tailwind recently.
I like what they do, it's different and interesting and they've had good results. But definitely some hurdles to get over.

Not knowing what "ATP" was, I found this information from Fidelity. It may be useful for others also-

Active Trader Pro is a dynamic trading platform that provides you with customizable tools to help you trade, track the market, see the latest financial news, monitor your portfolio, and more. You can customize your Active Trader Pro experience to adapt to a layout that works best for you.
Active Trader Pro is automatically available to customers who trade 36 times or more in a rolling 12-month period. If you don't meet this criteria but would like to request access, please call Active Trader Services at 800-564-0211.

@stayCalm,
Let us know if you buy and what you learn.
Pl check whether redemptions are entirely at the discretion of the board of directors. At least with interval funds, you may be able to get out 5% every quarter. A Tender fund may be more restrictive.
Does not matter how reputable the fund company is, IMO the question to ask is, if there is no pre-determined path to getting one's money out, is one just happy getting high dividends (guessing based on what the invests in) with no visibility into share pricing or liquidity?
My initial reaction is I have less than 5% probability of buying and so not spending time to research. It has a God like chart! and is appealing but I can not pursue everything appealing.

@BaluBalu ….it stabilized a bit this afternoon. It spiked up to be my third largest individual holding yesterday, but I’ll continue to watch and wait. Some folks with deep pockets close to Trump have a boatload…Ackman specifically.

I had updated my previous post but then saw your post. So, I am posting my update here.
Near the close, I bought back 50% of what I sold. Bought back at a higher price than I sold at. Talk about FOMO!
Unlike you, I did not buy much because I did not see anyone in this forum buying- lack of confirmation! Now that you mention, I do remember many of Trump friends buying months before the election. Interestingly, a lot of Trump faithful in this forum are very conservatively positioned on the risk spectrum. I guess people who are making money are making it quietly while the rest are caught up in election related noise.

Since when have mutual funds in their prospectuses felt a need to caution investors that domestic political events might result in loss of money?
”Some political leaders around the world (including in the U.S. and certain European nations) have been and may be elected on protectionist platforms, raising questions about the future of global free trade. Global trade disruption, significant introductions of trade barriers and bilateral trade frictions, together with any future downturns in the global economy resulting therefrom, could adversely affect the financial performance of the Fund and its investments.”
Principal Risks of Investing in the Fund / Geopolitical Risk
@bee / The concern noted would seem to be right down your pipe. Obviously Cohen & Steers felt a need to caution investors that politics might indeef “interfere with your investing.”
(Duly warned, I went ahead and initiated an investment in this fund today.)
@Baseball_Fan - You have in the past invested with John Hussman. Has he had any comments lately re the election outcome and how it may affect the investment landscape? Just curious if you happen to know. I don’t know if you still read Bill Fleckenstein. I continue to, despite being miles apart politically. I do learn a lot about investing from him. I mention this, because some of your wild assertions like ”you have yellen issuing multiplies of standard deviation of short term tbills to keep bond volatility and rates suppressed to allegedly get her gal elected” appear to be right out of Bill’s playbook.
(Generally, we capitalize the first letter of a proper noun. So your “yellen” is an unusual departure from standard English - whether intentional or by oversight.)

AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/13/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (49.8%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (21.8%, low); bearish became the middle sentiment (28.3%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +21.5% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (142+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (57+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil & gold down sharply, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 56.80% (positive). CPI +2.6%, core +3.3%; PPI at 8:30am ET today. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1733/thread

Buffett has been increasing cash for 2 years already.
The stock Berkshire Hathaway performance is similar to the SP500 which is unique to B.
Most investors who invested a high % in cash lagged the SP500 by a lot.
What can I learn from him? not much...wait, I based my system on B rules but tweaked it to my goals and temperament, and it worked pretty well.
I'm invested at 99+%. I can sell or buy anytime everything, Buffet can't. That's what happens when you have so muchhhhhhhhhhh money, you lose flexibility.
I have an idea for B, buy the SP500 and stop worrying about valuations.

In the IRA: Flipped FDVV for DGRW. I think I have enough Fidelity stock-picking mojo between FMILX and FDSVX. DGRW has under-performed recently but is roughly equal over the last 3 and 5 year periods with lower volatility.
Flipped XMHQ for BIAVX. XMHQ has been too much fun for the IRA. I continue to hold XMHQ in the taxable. Here is the strategy for BIAVX:

The Fund seeks to invest in companies at discounts to their business value, which the managers consider to be the present value of sustainable free cash flow. To identify these investment opportunities, the portfolio managers employ a disciplined, bottom-up investment process highlighted by rigorous, internally generated fundamental research. Accordingly, the portfolio managers only make investments when the managers believe that there is a sufficient discount to business value to mitigate the loss of capital in the event of adverse circumstances.

Sold FBALX. Duration was too long, and it's too volatile for me. I have enough Fidelity stock picking to suit me. PRWCX is the one allocation fund to rule them all in my portfolio.
Bought FFRHX. Over the last five years it has done a lot better than all those steady Eddy intermediate core funds we're supposed to own.
Sold GLIFX. Nice fund, but since I'm trying to consolidate it seems like an easy one to do without. Proceeds will be divided between FSUTX and IYK.
In the taxable: I put down markers in FIW, AIRR, PAVE, and GRID. There was a lot less overlap between the last three than I expected.
I have plenty of dry powder in the taxable for future buying opportunities.

From today's NYT:
"Check your wallet. Count your coins. Look at your checking account. If the cash adds up to less than $325 billion, then you have less than Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had at the end of September. A lot of the latest increase in cash and equivalents (mostly Treasury bills, actually) came from selling shares in Apple, which is still the company’s biggest stock holding. Buffett said this year that it made sense to sell and pay capital gains taxes now because the tax rate is likely to rise. He’s also not seeing any great ways to spend cash on stocks, including those of Berkshire itself. A warning for the rest of us, perhaps."

I like simple since I started trading in 2000.
Concentrated portfolio in top categories, disregarding all the noise("experts" advice, election, valuation, economic indicators)
Never alternative categories (gold, commodities, CEF,long-short,others).
Stocks:since 2010, US LC tilting growth.
Bonds: funds that do well regardless of rates for about 1.5-2 years already with low SD. CBLDX,RSIIX for longer hold. ICMUX and CLOZ more of a trade based on markets+trends.
See CLOZ chart for 1.5 years (https://schrts.co/hsMDDiQm).
I know I have been saying it for months because the trend is still the same, why mess up with a good trend?

BB,
The timing just felt helpless, so to speak, meaning things rocketing up for no good or even good reason, really. One might think my orange-menace hatred would modulate.
I will be back buying JQUA and TCAF at some point, I am sure. Combined they make it unnecessary to add QLTY, it appears.
I am done selling for now. The remaining bond funds are all significantly underwater. I am increasingly risk-averse at 77, sure --- we have enough to make it the next decade and more, even in Massachusetts --- but with grandchildren, I hear the greed call sometimes, and we also want to leave moneys to their parents as feasible. (I also have this newly rich friend who asked me for advice, so I have been rethinking many things; mentioned a few posts back.)
So I am now probably 85% in ~4.5% mm funds at the moment plus the several bond funds underwater for years now. Maybe more than 85%. (The bond funds represent a dumbass decision, although I did lots of study at the time, read smarties here and elsewhere, felt that interest factors were already baked in, blah blah.)
One droll thing that happened, not that you asked, is that 3-4 individual stocks, bought on rando tips here and from plutocrat friends (and again I researched, and so they dove soon after I bought them, natch), just went significantly above breakeven the last month; and therefore I sold them too. :)
FMSDX turned out not to do quite what I had expected ('a good idea until not', as the quip goes), and so I was waiting for it to get significantly above breakeven, and it did, and out it went. I woulda done better w oldies FBALX and FPURX. Or even as well, sometimes better, in AOR and AOA.

Interesting watching the recent reversal in investment grade credit and precious metals.
The 10 year Treasury yield continues to rise. Now above 4.44% after another rough day. (Bond markets were closed yesterday.) That’s a sharp rise from the 3.62% notched on September 15 - just about the time the Fed began cutting rates.
Gold has lost $200 in the past week or two. Now $2600 off a high of over $2800 reached October 29. Miners have been hit much harder proportionally.
A fund (CEF) I’ve owned before but don’t now GGN is down 5.5% today. Most interesting as it seems generally to not react sharply to gold prices - being more income focused. Any ideas what hit that one today? The commodities stocks have also been hammered in recent trading sessions. Probably has affected this CEF as well. Could just be a normal commodities market correction. Could also be a warning of coming recession.

Remember the now-classic warning from Eisenhower (elected 1952) about the Military Industrial Complex?
Yes. It made the evening news that day. Remember it well. All the networks carried it. (Tuesday January 17, 1961). And we discussed it in our 8th grade Civics course the following day.
@Crash. War will always be a good investment. Look for SpaxeX to go public sometime in the next few years. Investors will rush to buy. It is deeply involved in military applications although most details are kept secret. A military outpost (perhaps an invincible “doomsday” command center) on the dark side of the moon sometimes in the next 10 years is not beyond the realm of possibilities. With the advent of remote drone warfare the location of a command center can be thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of miles distant. Fortunes will be made. (Poor Ike had no idea.)
I checked. It takes only 1.2 seconds for a radio wave to travel from moon to earth.

Question: Would knowing in 1950 what future politicians would do have affected the way you chose to invest for the long term?
Remember the now-classic warning from Eisenhower (elected 1952) about the Military Industrial Complex? If someone had no compunctions about it, investing in defense/military equipment stocks would have reaped you a fortune--- provided you sold Boeing before the current corporate meltdown. Eh?