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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Where To Invest Now?
    My two international equity funds have been my best performers, by far, in 2025.
    The YTD returns for my small blend and large blend funds are 16.44% and 15.04% respectively.
    I don't know if international equity funds will continue to outperform U.S. equity funds.
    It's important to note that the U.S. outperformed international for a very long time (until recently)
    and performance between these two asset classes tends to revert to the mean.
  • TBLD TIBIX/TIBAX
    TBLD has an expense ratio of 1.59% and it is not leveraged. Not acceptable.
  • When government controls the means of production...
    is referred to as "Socialism". A textbook example to follow:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/trump-golden-share-us-steel-nippon-merger.html
    -U.S. Steel’s amended charter gives Trump sweeping powers over major business decisions while he is in office.
    -The “golden share” will then be held by the Treasury and Commerce Departments after Trump’s term is over, according to a SEC filing.
    -Trump will have veto power over some production and wage decisions.
  • Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25
    Making me work for it, eh? lol

    "US Jobless claims declined to 236,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021."
    "Elsewhere, the US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May while imports were little changed, and first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% compared to the second reading of -0.2%."
    For comparison, 1st Q 2024 GDP was tepid at 1.6%. That minus .5% makes last years number look awesome in retrospect. Has anyone told Donald?
    I wouldn't doubt a bigger number for 2nd Q 2025, simply because the threat of tariffs likely pulled forward a lot of spending.
    Something about the statement that 1Q imports "were little changed", baffles me. How can that be, when the story has been early import "hoarding" in the face of coming tariffs? Did order cancellations offset "upfronting" efforts?
  • Where To Invest Now?
    Morningstar's chief multi-asset strategist Dominic Pappalardo and chief investment officer Philip Straehl
    discuss current market opportunities.
    As always, these prognostications must be taken with a grain of salt.
    "In equity markets, Pappalardo and Straehl see value in international stocks, small caps,
    global consumer discretionary stocks, and healthcare names.
    In the fixed-income markets, they recommend a large overweight position in US Treasuries
    and a slight overweight position in emerging markets."

    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/consumer-stocks-stand-out-among-opportunities-second-half-2025
  • Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25
    Michael McKee was all over it on Bloomberg in the middle of the night....
  • Leavitt: July 9 trade deadline "not critical"
    This is so revealing. It stinks of unrealistic expectations, lack of confidence in assumed leverage, and abject fear over adverse market reactions. Anyone with a strong negotiating position and a solid plan doesn't keep moving the goalposts. Nor would they underestimate their adversaries.
    A real plan would be that you begin negotiations with a realistic timeframe and a threat of tariffs to potentially arise. That hangs over the negotiations providing uncertainty for your adversary and a sense of urgency, as well. I.e. - Six months and we impose 25% tariffs, unless we have a deal. Then you don't tank your own stock market and end up backing down repeatedly. The tariff threat needs to be something that you can live with, should things not work out. Certainly not 145% tariffs on your biggest trade partner, who has actual leverage. And then you back down, lending the accurate impression that you do not have the confidence you are fronting.
    And never don't bite off more than you can chew by targeting everyone all at once. We will either get seriously unimpressive results, or this will still be going on for another year. If, while FAFO, our own economic indicators start to erode, our leverage will diminish accordingly.
    Faced with minimum of 10% tariffs on all imported goods, and reciprocal tariffs on exports, and threats not to dare raise prices, how long before corporate American goes with the standard playbook - layoffs?
  • Magnificent Seven
    Three top large-growth managers discuss the Magnificent Seven
    at the 2025 Morningstar Investment Conference.
    Side Note: In prior years, M* vigorously promoted its annual Investment Conference.
    There didn't seem to be much promotion this year but I may not be part of their target audience.
    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/3-top-fund-managers-whats-next-magnificent-7
  • Best States For Taxes On Retirement Income
    Glad nearly all my retirement savings are in taxable accounts, so that 15% LTCG would be a better deal for me in Virginia and should save about 3% vs if I was tapping an IRA. Cool.....
  • RBC Funds liquidates several funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1272950/000119312525147968/d104688d497.htm
    (formerly Babson and Tamarack funds)
    RBC Enterprise Fund
    RBC Small Cap Core Fund
    RBC Microcap Value Fund
    RBC Small Cap Value Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1272950/000119312525147960/d28043d497.htm
    RBC Global Equity Leaders Fund
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Somewhat related - I wasn’t happy with the headlights on the last car. Did some research and learned that it had reflector headlights, whereas more expensive cars have projector headlights known to be brighter. New car has projector lights. Better.
    More and more idiots on the highways tailgating and pulling out into traffic. This has to increase accident rates and cost of auto insurance for everyone. In addition to struggling to make payments on their big rolling houses these folks are likely paying enormous insurance costs related to moving violations or accidents.
    Michigan expressways are now posted 75 MPH. Many are driving 85 +. I don't mind as long as they’re sober and know what they’re doing. Small mistakes are amplified at those speeds.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Many products these days are unrepairable or hard to repair. Some cheap TVs are all sealed and you cannot even open it to check or fix anything.
    This is slowly getting to cars too.
    I have read that in many car models, to replace the headlights, they have to disassemble the entire front portion and then put it back. So, that's what adds to the time and labor.
    I had a car once that had a difficult access for battery and required special tools to replace it.
    Even DIY oil changes in some cars are tricky.
    To be fair "the entire front end" is mainly a plastic facade (bumper cover) that can be removed in about 15 minutes if you know where the fasteners are located.
    And even if you could open that cheap TV, there would be nothing inside you could fix. Just a couple circuit boards, with very minute components baked on. Though I did help a neighbor replace a soldered-in-place fuse on a cheap TV, that got taken out in a lightning event a few years ago.
    Most people do not want to hear it, but things like TVs are basically obsolete in about 6-8 years nowadays. I had a 10 year old TV that failed (again lightning). I was not sad to see it go, all the smart functions were basically useless. The world had moved on from the hardware embedded inside, years ago.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    YBB said "I have read that in many car models, to replace the headlights, they have to disassemble the entire front portion and then put it back. So, that's what adds to the time and labor."
    I can vouch for that. Had to replace a passenger side headlamp bulb in a 2009 Silverado.
    It took over an hour and a half, many cuss words, and a few shredded knuckles. FWIW I replaced the driver side bulb in 10-15 min just 6 mo earlier.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Part cost contributed to higher insurance this year. Our 12-month premium increased 7%.
    Many auto parks came from overseas, Higher cost today due to tariffs, easily 10+%, and they were passed to the customers. My auto mechanic confirmed that. Labor rate at show stay flattening. Only materials produced domestically are oils (especially synthetics), and some hydraulic fluids.
    EVs accidents that damage the battery cells located on the floor may get the vehicle totaled. Many insurance companies do not want to replace the entire battery. OEM Tesla battery cost $20-25K.
    “Bait-and-switch” is common among insurance companies. We have hand the same scenario as @yogibb above.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The cost to fix damaged cars has increased by 28% since 2021.
    Seemingly minor damage to vehicles

    Tell me about it. I recently was in a fender bender (my fault, first time in over two decades and I wasn't at fault for that earlier one). 2MPH. Front fender dented, minor scratch to side mirror and some scratches along side of car (more dust than scratches). Cost to repair? Almost $7K.
    Fortunately I never dropped my collision insurance. And after 5 years without accidents, I supposedly have accident forgiveness. I'll see what my premium is in six months.
    The shop did a magnificent job, and they were really helpful. (And I feel sorry for the workers who did the repairs in near 100 degree heat.) Still, numbers like this show why insurance costs are so high.
    (This happened one block from home. Statistics show that 75% of accidents occur within 25 miles of home, 52% within five miles. I've made the grade, I'm another statistic.)
    https://hutzlerlaw.com/what-percentage-of-car-accidents-happen-close-to-home/
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/25/25
    Stunningly unbelievable considering NASDAQ 100 is at historical highs, junk bonds at historical highs, S@P around 0.85% from historical highs and all within the context of one of the steepest and quickest rise off any prior low. Please no good news, let the uncertainty continue to reign, and don’t let the walls of worry crumble.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/25/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/25/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (40.3%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (24.7%, below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (35.1%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -5.2% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (174+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+13 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.81% (positive). Israel-Iran ceasefire after intervention by the US "Daddy". NATO's new target for "defense & security" is 5% of GDP by 2035. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2058/thread
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    "According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total cost to own and operate an automobile averaged a frightening $12,296 in 2024, roughly 30% higher than a decade ago. Driving the numbers are new-vehicle prices, now averaging $48,883, according to Cox Automotive’s latest data. With middle-income buyers priced out of new cars, demand for used cars has strengthened, now averaging around $25,500."
    "Among the major stressors: car insurance. Lexis-Nexis Risk Solutions’ annual report found average insurance costs rose 10% in 2024, after soaring 15% in 2023. Full-coverage policies now average $2,680 annually, up 12% from June 2024, says Bankrate."
    The cost to fix damaged cars has increased by 28% since 2021.
    Seemingly minor damage to vehicles equipped with Advanced Driver-Assist Systems (ADAS)
    can be extremely expensive to repair. Vehicles sometimes need to be "totaled."
    New cars include more plastics which degrade under daily heat extremes.
    Wet timing belts erode over time—this can contaminate/kill the engine.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/high-costs-have-ended-america-s-love-affair-with-cars/ar-AA1H7OBD
  • FOMC Statement
    For me a salad is a complete meal - topped with seafood, grilled chicken or occasionally cheese. So it’s a really big platter. Sometimes stores mark lettuce down substantially (more than 50%) when it nears its expiration date. I like deals like that. Hasn’t killed me yet. I’ll confess I picked up a 3-pack of fresh Romaine today that was on sale for only $3.00. Great bargain. So prices vary.
    Just wondering if the apprehension of / fear tactics toward migrants is affecting the labor supply in the ag produce industry and leading to higher prices?
    ”Maybe we can put all of the indebted students to work picking blackberries, spinach, and romaine.” - Don’t say that too loudly or someone might seize upon the idea.