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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PONAX FUND IN 401K ADVICE
    Hello Carefree. My opinion is "why have a bond fund when you are 55 years old", unless you are planning to retire in a couple of years. I was 100% equity until 2 years before retiring at 67. Having said that my 401k had PIMIX ("I" shares), which I used for the last 1-1/2 years before retiring. I also owned BHYAX (BHYSX at Schwab, load waived) in my TIRA account as one of my first bond OEFs. Both are good funds IMHO.
    Some will not buy PONAX/PIMIX due to the high ER. High ERs don't bother me in bond OEFs (or equity OEFs as well) as long as the returns justify them. One thng about PONAX/PIMIX is that Pimco keeps the income the same each month. Most bond OEFs do not.
  • PONAX FUND IN 401K ADVICE
    PONAX pays 0.55% in expenses to use leverage. (This figure is the difference between the prospectus stated ER of 1.45% and Morningstar's "adjusted" ER of 0.90% that backs out some leveraging expenses.)
    A reason to use leverage is to borrow money for less than you can make with it. Still, it costs something to borrow that money. That cost is included in the 1.45% figure.
    According to M*, these leveraging costs are incurred by "6% of all U.S. mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, as of the end of July [2018]. Most of the affected are alternative strategies that use shorting as a regular part of their process, but some bond funds that use certain instruments are also affected, as are a handful of equity funds."
    So this use of leverage is not a common strategy of funds in general and bond funds in particular.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/876536/a-fee-methodology-update-makes-some-funds-fees-appear-to-swell
    In that column, M* claims that ignoring these leveraging costs provides a more apples-to-apples comparison. If you subscribe to that line of reasoning, you should look at the 0.90% figure. If you feel that the cost of boosting returns (one hopes) by leveraging is nevertheless a real cost of the fund, you should look at the 1.45% figure.
    That column analogizes these leveraging costs to trading costs. Trading costs aren't counted in any fund's ER. Personally I view the exclusion of trading costs as deficiency in the reporting of what funds spend, not as a positive feature.
    The word M* uses is "philosophically". That pretty much sums it up. It's however you want to view these costs.
  • PONAX FUND IN 401K ADVICE
    My 401k provider offers PONAX -Pimco Income A- in the plan, but the expense is 1.45. Thoughts avoid because of the expense is so high or buy it? The only other bond fund is BHYAX BlackRock High Yield. I’m 55 years old and I appreciate your thoughts.
  • *
    From my own perspective I've hugely enjoyed reading and digesting this thread. I've learned a great deal and have researched almost every fund mentioned. Thanks to every contributor and dtconroe in particular for starting the discussion and for his exceptionally well informed comments.
    My personal circumstances are such that when it comes to bond funds (both mutual and ETFs) all I am looking for is a greater overall return than an online savings account. Let's say anything above 1.8% APY. Preservation of principal is absolutely paramount because I may need to withdraw money on very short notice for my wife's medical expenses due to a back injury. (We both have high deductible plans.) Therefore, I have money in ultrashort duration/ultrashort maturity funds like TRBUX, SEMRX, DLSNX, MINT, and just this week I have opened a position in JPST. All of these I consider cash alternatives with little to no risk to principal. These are in taxable accounts separate from our retirement plans.
    The wife and I work for the same employer and we are both around 80% stocks/20% bonds in each of our 401K plans - with 20 and 12 years to go until full retirement respectively. That allocation will of course change as retirement nears. The single bond fund we use (out of a grand choice of only two) is WAPSX. Both of our Roth IRAs are 100% in equity mutual funds because we are very bullish for the coming decade and are prepared to weather the inevitable volatility.
    As so many have rightly said - everyone's circumstances are different.
  • Don't Be Fooled By Bond Markets' Risk-On Rally In December As Caution Lies Ahead For 2020
    The usual suspect. These articles are published for investors to read with minimal ideas.
    Let's take an example of just one sentence "We've had a nice reversal in Q4 where it's risk back on again," said Peter Palfrey, vice president and co-manager of $7.5 billion Loomis Sayles Core Plus Bond (NERNX). "For the first nine months of the year, it was just a world of worry."
    Let's see the reality. In the first 9 months of 2019, the SP500 made 20+%, BND (US bond index) made 8.6%...mmm...I didn't have any worries. It looked to me it was excellent.
  • *
    "fundly">@dtconroe.
    I have thoroughly, again thoroughly, enjoyed your post and was able to evaluate some of your named funds to add to those I currently keep in my portfolio. Each post I believe has value to someone and some repetition is no problem at all, as in the end,the next post usually has some newly added value or information. Do not be offended by any ones opinion about your methodology, as it is only an opinion. The only true arbiter of this forum is Dr. Snowball and his minions. If it has to do with investing keep it coming!! Dr. Snowball only rarely gets involved and typically only with character assault issues.
    I am retired also, and keep a 30% equity, 50% bond 20% cash portfolio and use a barbel type philosophy with the portfolio, with aggressive funds balanced by conservative ones both OEF's and etf's. One of my favorite HY Muni funds is VWALX. On my Wells Fargo platform this Admiral fund has a minimum purchase of $0. Yup. $0 instead of the 50K at Vanguard.This could be available similarly at certain other brokerages. If not VWAHX is available with a $3000 minimum and an ER of .17% This is a HY classified Muni fund but in actuality is mostly investment grade with an average BBB bond portfolio and with great metrics for what it is. Highly rated by M*.
    I liked what I saw with DHEIX and at Vanguard it is available with only a $2500 minimum. Even with the $20 purchase fee, with a reasonably sized purchase it is far cheaper to keep for a year than DHEAX which is ntf. I made the purchase in my Vanguard account.
    I do not post but rarely ,so keep up the good work and welcome to the board.
    fundly
    fundly, very encouraging post. Thanks for letting us know what you are doing and the reasons. Sounds like you have a good handle on what you are doing and could be very helpful in sharing your knowledge and experience with other posters. I look forward to other posts from you in the future. One of the things I personally get from posts like yours, is what is available through other brokerages that I am not familiar with. I envy you being able to get DHEIX so inexpensively at Vanguard.
  • *
    +1. ... And in our case, my wife always just trusts my choices. Like a great many people, she's happy deliberately NOT learning about the various ins-and-outs-and-angles of investing. It's intimidating, maybe overwhelming to her/them. I always found the sterile, raw algebra in school to be worthless and a waste of time. With investing, I began reading printed magazines like Kiplinger's, and watching Lew Rukheiser and his round-table on Friday nights on PBS. I soon picked up on the professional lingo. It was a real discovery and revelation when it dawned upon me that anything having to do with Ethics has been stripped out of the nomenclature. ;)
  • *
    @dtconroe.
    I have thoroughly, again thoroughly, enjoyed your post and was able to evaluate some of your named funds to add to those I currently keep in my portfolio. Each post I believe has value to someone and some repetition is no problem at all, as in the end,the next post usually has some newly added value or information. Do not be offended by any ones opinion about your methodology, as it is only an opinion. The only true arbiter of this forum is Dr. Snowball and his minions. If it has to do with investing keep it coming!! Dr. Snowball only rarely gets involved and typically only with character assault issues.
    I am retired also, and keep a 30% equity, 50% bond 20% cash portfolio and use a barbel type philosophy with the portfolio, with aggressive funds balanced by conservative ones both OEF's and etf's. One of my favorite HY Muni funds is VWALX. On my Wells Fargo platform this Admiral fund has a minimum purchase of $0. Yup. $0 instead of the 50K at Vanguard.This could be available similarly at certain other brokerages. If not VWAHX is available with a $3000 minimum and an ER of .17% This is a HY classified Muni fund but in actuality is mostly investment grade with an average BBB bond portfolio and with great metrics for what it is. Highly rated by M*.
    I liked what I saw with DHEIX and at Vanguard it is available with only a $2500 minimum. Even with the $20 purchase fee, with a reasonably sized purchase it is far cheaper to keep for a year than DHEAX which is ntf. I made the purchase in my Vanguard account.
    I do not post but rarely ,so keep up the good work and welcome to the board.
    fundly
  • RSFYX Victory Floating Rate (Y) Rated 5* by M* *****
    You can edit a post you make by clicking on the icon in the upper right corner of the post. That brings up a bubble where you can click "edit".
    The history of the fund's day-to-day management is one of continuity. Kevin Booth was an original manager of the fund (first with Guardian Investor Services, then with Guardian's subsidiary Park Ave) and continues as a co-manager for Park Ave. Victory acquired the management firm RS Investment Management and retained Park Ave as the sub-adviser.
    Technically, Guardian was the sub-adviser through April 30, 2015. Then it switched to Park Avenue Institutional Advisers, which according to the 2015 prospectus was "organized in 2015 [as a] wholly-owned subsidiary of GIS [Guardian Investor Services]."
    The SEC filing announcing Victory's acquisition of RS Investment Management Company (not Guardian) said that it would keep the subadvisory contracts in place except for a few funds. RSFYX kept its sub-adviser.
    The fund's best performance has come since it joined the Victory family. So it's not a matter of the fund "still" earning a 5 star rating, but rather that it's now at the top of its game. It has a 5 star rating for its past 3 and 5 years, but "only" 4 stars over its past ten years, i.e. its lifetime.
    For completeness, according to the current prospectus, "Victory Capital Management Inc "is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (“VCH”), a publicly traded Delaware corporation." It is not a subsidiary of Guardian.
    USAA Investment Management Company was recently acquired by Schwab, and AFAIK never had anything to do with RSFYX.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/51485/charles-schwab-corporation-to-acquire-assets-of-usaa-s-investment-management-company
  • Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020
    Looking at that graph, I must wonder who amongst us here would have the patience to sit on our stocks (or funds) for 30 years patiently waiting for them to regain their 1989 high? Before someone jumps on me, I’d better acknowledge that the graph doesn’t represent return after dividends were paid out over that period, so investors might well be net positive. Thanks to the 2 “OF”s that together posted the NIkkei 225 chart.
    BTW - I remember well that period. Everybody was trying to figure out why Japan seemed to be so far ahead of the U.S. financially. Delegations were sent to Japan by U.S. businesses and schools to try to get at the answer. Quoth one after returning: “I don’t get it.”
  • Investment Thoughts January 2020
    Mark "Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance"
    FD I'm a huge fan of Mutual funds. Buying stocks can be rewarding or spinning your wheels. Over the years my stock funds had better risk/reward than the market and my bond funds beat the indexes by a lot.
    Buffett recommends most people including his wife to use the SP500 index. FXAIX expense is extremely low at 0.015% and if you really want cheaper than that go for FZROX with zero expense.
    If you like single stocks then go for it. If I had to select single stocks I would definitely go for the biggest high tech companies. Over 4 decades they lead the stock market.
    ===================================
    Mark: "Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above."
    FD: I'm definitely not in Taleb camp of a black swan. Many investors that believed in a black swan stayed out of the markets since 2008 while stocks+bonds had one of the best periods in the last 10 years.
    As a conservative investor, I never used CD and t-bills and very unlikely I will use them in the future since I can find better mutual funds like PIMIX,IOFIX and HY munis ORNAX,NHMAX,OPTAX which made me so much more. Just a year ago so many posters were falling all over themselves when they found MM and CD that paid 2.5% while my bond mutual funds made me easily over 10%.
    Finally, I wish you good luck with your endeavor.
  • Want to Beat Boring CDs? Munis Can Be a Conservative Way to Increase Yield
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-want-to-beat-boring-cds-munis-can-be-one-way.html
    Want to Beat Boring CDs? Munis Can Be a Conservative Way to Increase Yield
    Municipal bonds come with some risks that bank CDs don't, but there are ways to minimize them while still getting a better return. Plus, the interest you earn is tax free, and who doesn't love that?
  • The Popularity Of (And Problem With) Municipal Bonds
    https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794648421/the-popularity-of-and-problem-with-municipal-bonds
    Short programs to listen to
    The Popularity Of (And Problem With) Municipal Bonds
    Municipal bonds, or "munis," are having a moment. With interest rates at near-historic lows, investors are thirsty for yield. They're also keen to maximize any tax advantages that might be available to them, following recent changes to the tax code. Munis fit the bill in both cases, as riskier issuers come to market, with lower-rated and higher-yielding bond
  • *
    "Crash">I continue to read this thread with interest. My household situation is such that I can manage fine (along with wifey,) together here with extended family, though my portfolio is surely much smaller than many or most who participate here. Therefore, I have streamlined and consolidated my portfolio prior to our moving out here. Conservative bond-OEFs? Well, I actually can't afford to be too conservative. I'm happy with my TRP bond funds, along with PTIAX, which has been mentioned by several people already. My goal is to generate BETTER than plain-vanilla monthly dividends, without going overboard re: risk. I have become accustomed to what I would characterize as moderate risk; and of course, with regard to BOND funds, volatility is much less pronounced than with stocks. I have my eye on the sister-fund to PTIAX, which is the Perf. Trust Muni bond fund. I might end-up buying into that one. Wife's 403b will be directly rolled-over from VEIRX into VLAAX...And she's starting her new job here very soon. I hope there's a 401k or 403b which is not a pile of dooky. It's some sort of Nursing Home. And she tells me that employees have their medical insurance paid for by the company (?) Holy pennies from heaven, Batman! Can that be true?
    Crash, that is interesting and sounds like you have established some strong conviction for what you are interested in. What is "conservative" for one investor, could be "risky" for another investor--it is all in understanding your own risk tolerance. My wife has a relatively small amount in her Traditional IRA account, and about 50% of our joint taxable account comes from her inheritance from her deceased parents. Her desires is to be much less risky than funds I put into a relatively broad conservative category. She would prefer CDs and short term bond funds as her investments of choice. Over time, I have shown her visually on performance charts how her desired short term bond funds look like compared to slightly more risky bond categories such as nontraditional bond funds. Now in her Traditional IRA account, she is comfortable with MWCIX and IISIX for an account of about $100K. In our joint taxable account, we own several of the lower risk bond oefs that she is comfortable with (funds like DHEAX), but about half of the joint taxable account consist of funds that fit my risk level (funds like SEMMX and PUTIX). You just have to develop your portfolio to fit you needs and investment style, and believe in the criteria you used to select them.
  • *
    I continue to read this thread with interest. My household situation is such that I can manage fine (along with wifey,) together here with extended family, though my portfolio is surely much smaller than many or most who participate here. Therefore, I have streamlined and consolidated my portfolio prior to our moving out here. Conservative bond-OEFs? Well, I actually can't afford to be too conservative. I'm happy with my TRP bond funds, along with PTIAX, which has been mentioned by several people already. My goal is to generate BETTER than plain-vanilla monthly dividends, without going overboard re: risk. I have become accustomed to what I would characterize as moderate risk; and of course, with regard to BOND funds, volatility is much less pronounced than with stocks. I have my eye on the sister-fund to PTIAX, which is the Perf. Trust Muni bond fund. I might end-up buying into that one. Wife's 403b will be directly rolled-over from VEIRX into VLAAX...And she's starting her new job here very soon. I hope there's a 401k or 403b which is not a pile of dooky. It's some sort of Nursing Home. And she tells me that employees have their medical insurance paid for by the company (?) Holy pennies from heaven, Batman! Can that be true?
  • J.P.Morgan Guide to the Markets Q1 2020
    I spent a lot of time on Page 63.
    Paints an interesting picture.
    -The negative volatility of stocks is very similar to bonds over a 5 year rolling average...negative 2% vs negative 1%...interesting.
    - An all bond portfolio performs equally well compared to a 50/50% (stock/bond) portfolio over a rolling 10 year average...very interesting
    - Over long rolling periods (20 years) stocks are 3 times more profitable and less risky than bonds. Or another way of looking at it, it would require only 33% funding in stocks to equal 100% funding in bonds to reach the same financial goal. Also, an all stock portfolio has a greater chance of earning a significantly higher "low end" long term return (6% vs 1%) vs an all bond portfolio over a 20 year rolling period.
    Thought on Retirement strategies:
    -Fund Long term (rolling 20 year needs) using a 100% stock portfolio, expect 8X on the initial investment.
    -Fund short term (1-5 year) retirement needs with 100% bonds
    -Fund mid term (rolling 5 years, rolling 10 years, rolling 15 years) retirement needs with a 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds. Might look like VWINX (40/60).
    Page 62
    At age 65, a husband and wife have a 90% that one will live to 80 years old and a 49% chance one will live to 90. Plan for 35 years of retirement withdrawals.
    Fund age 65 - 70 withdrawal needs with an all bond portfolio. The likelihood that you will pull money from this portfolio at a loss is lower compared to the 100% equity portfolio and the 50/50 portfolio over this 5 year rolling period. The bond portfolio has a potential maximum loss of (-8%) verses (-15%) for the 50/50 portfolio and (-39%) for the all equity portfolio. Plan for these kinds of negative outcomes (sequence of return risks).
    Funds for age 70 - 75 withdrawal needs (5-10 years away) might best be constructed as a balanced 50/50 portfolio. Weigh the risk / reward to ST/low duration bonds or cash like substitutes to the Total Bond Index to the Total Stock Index.
    Fund age 75- 80 (10-15 years away) as well as Age 80-85 (15-20 years away) with:
    -100% equities which would add more downside risk (only -1%), as well as higher possible positive returns (19%)
    - 100% bonds portfolio or 50/50 portfolio provide almost identical returns variances with the 50/50 portfolio having slightly better downside risk. Neither of these two portfolios lost principal. Funding for worse case outcomes plan for the withdrawal amount to at least equal the investment amount.
    Fund ages 85-100 withdrawal needs with an all equity portfolio. Determine each years Inflation adjusted withdrawals. Worse case scenario for an all stock portfolio over 20 years is a positive 6%. Fund for the kind of outcome. Fund this portfolio at 33% of the withdrawal need...for example if you will need $10K (in today's dollars) and (inflation adjusted @ 2% for 15 years), your total need would be about $350K for these 15 years of withdrawals, so one would need to fund 33% of $350K or $117K in today's dollars. $117K hopefully grow to at least $350K in 20 years in a buy and hold all equity portfolio.
  • *
    "Gary1952">What is too conservative? I have a basic AA of 50/50. But the 50% bond OEFs have 50% (25% overall) in low duration/lower yielding "safer" type funds. The other 50% (25% overall) is in higher yielding multi/non-traditional funds. I own no "ballast" funds such as core/core plus OEFs. Is this too conservative or not conservative enough? My goal is to target 3-4% yearly income from divs, CDs and growth.
    My market correlation for 10 years is .35%. The max draw down is -.42% for the bond OEFs.
    I know it is my judgment but I am curious what others think.
    Gary, In a more specific response to your post, you and I use very similar kinds of funds, although I break my funds down into funds for my taxable account, and funds for my tax exempt (IRA) account. In my taxable account if use more of the "safer" bond oefs, but with a wide variation if diversity. So, for example, DHEAX is the short term bond fund I use, but I consider it more risky than DBLSX and less risky than FIJEX. There is an argument that you could use just one of these short term bond funds, or you could use more than one of these funds for more diversification. I use 4 very different nontraditional bond oefs in my taxable account because they are all "conservative" for me, but they don't always perform the same in a given set of market conditions. PUTIX is my most risky nontraditional bond oef, MWCIX is my least risky nontraditional bond oef. I also own a municipal bond oef which is a HY MUNI (AAHMX) and this is one of the least risky HY Munis you can own. I used it to replace BTMIX, which is a very good short term investment grade muni bond oef, but I felt I was ready to move up in risk. I have considered NVHAX, but it is more risky than AAHMX, and NHHAX has some history of significant peak to trough losses and a larger "worst 3 month performance period" than AAHMX. I am still considering adding NVHAX to my portfolio in 2020, but if I do, I will probably make it much smaller position than AAHMX. In the past I have used MMHAX as longer duration and more risky bond oef, but I am not inclined to use it right now because I am not comfortable with its risk level. I am very clear that many investors will use much more risky bond oefs in their taxable account because there are a lot of pundits thinking they will sail through 2020 in the same way they sailed through 2019--that may fit their conservative criteria, but not mine.
    When it comes to my IRA account, I use several multisector bond oefs that are more risky than what I will use in my taxable account. I rank order multisector bond oefs in roughly the following low to higher risk: ANGIX, VCFAX, PIMIX, PTIAX, JMUTX, JMSIX, PUCZX, IOFIX. All investors can make an argument for these funds being "conservative" based on the criteria they use. For me, I have chosen to only use VCFAX and PIMIX, but I don't dismiss the rationale from others to use some of these other funds. For me, I would not touch IOFIX with a 10 foot pole, but there are many others who believe this is the next great multisector bond oef.
    At any rate, it appears to me that you are using relatively conservative bond oefs, but you could very easily change your criteria for other bond oefs to fit your investing roles you have defined for each fund.
  • Investment Thoughts January 2020
    First time poster, greetings to all, posting some investment thoughts via stream of consciousness, all feedback welcome
    I'm heavily invested in Dominion Energy Reliability Notes, paying 2.7% / $50k+ investments, you are lower on the capital structure here, full access to your funds at any time, no FDIC but backed by the financial strength of the company. Does anyone have any experience investing in these Notes or have additional input?
    Following closely the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors...does anyone on that thread really trust/know what their funds are invested in? Even conservative funds with asset backed holdings rated highly by the rating agencies you have to wonder don't you? Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes. Driving up Sheridan Road in the affluent North Shore burbs of CHI seems every fifth McMansion is up for sale...and same homes been for sale seems like over two years...escape from taxes and/or many of those folks living in those expensive homes know we are in an epic asset bubble?
    Heavily invested in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Berkshire - B (BRK/B), consider them a sort of "defacto", well managed, mutual funds without the fees. Follow Akre and Ackman via GuruFocus new holdings, have invested in Agilent (A) and Descartes Systems Group (DSGX). Heavily invested in Medtronic (MDT) and Teleflex (TFX), we're all getting older and looking for the repeal of the ridiculous Medical Device Tax (taxes profits not revenue, huh, who thought that was a good idea, companies thus cut jobs or sent solid paying jobs overseas).
    Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance, "skimming off the top" with their management fees. ETFs are not for me, do like their low cost but too linked to herd behavior, what goes up must come down, no? I'm amazed by how many folks who invest in their 401Ks etc just follow what they are told by the "plan representatives" and have no idea how the markets work or what they are invested in.
    Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above.
    Comments?
    Good investing to all,
    B