* "Gary1952">What is too conservative? I have a basic AA of 50/50. But the 50% bond OEFs have 50% (25% overall) in low duration/lower yielding "safer" type funds. The other 50% (25% overall) is in higher yielding multi/non-traditional funds. I own no "ballast" funds such as core/core plus OEFs. Is this too conservative or not conservative enough? My goal is to target 3-4% yearly income from divs, CDs and growth.
My market correlation for 10 years is .35%. The max draw down is -.42% for the bond OEFs.
I know it is my judgment but I am curious what others think.
Gary, In a more specific response to your post, you and I use very similar kinds of funds, although I break my funds down into funds for my taxable account, and funds for my tax exempt (IRA) account. In my taxable account if use more of the "safer" bond oefs, but with a wide variation if diversity. So, for example, DHEAX is the short term bond fund I use, but I consider it more risky than DBLSX and less risky than FIJEX. There is an argument that you could use just one of these short term bond funds, or you could use more than one of these funds for more diversification. I use 4 very different nontraditional bond oefs in my taxable account because they are all "conservative" for me, but they don't always perform the same in a given set of market conditions. PUTIX is my most risky nontraditional bond oef, MWCIX is my least risky nontraditional bond oef. I also own a municipal bond oef which is a HY MUNI (AAHMX) and this is one of the least risky HY Munis you can own. I used it to replace BTMIX, which is a very good short term investment grade muni bond oef, but I felt I was ready to move up in risk. I have considered NVHAX, but it is more risky than AAHMX, and NHHAX has some history of significant peak to trough losses and a larger "worst 3 month performance period" than AAHMX. I am still considering adding NVHAX to my portfolio in 2020, but if I do, I will probably make it much smaller position than AAHMX. In the past I have used MMHAX as longer duration and more risky bond oef, but I am not inclined to use it right now because I am not comfortable with its risk level. I am very clear that many investors will use much more risky bond oefs in their taxable account because there are a lot of pundits thinking they will sail through 2020 in the same way they sailed through 2019--that may fit their conservative criteria, but not mine.
When it comes to my IRA account, I use several multisector bond oefs that are more risky than what I will use in my taxable account. I rank order multisector bond oefs in roughly the following low to higher risk: ANGIX, VCFAX, PIMIX, PTIAX, JMUTX, JMSIX, PUCZX, IOFIX. All investors can make an argument for these funds being "conservative" based on the criteria they use. For me, I have chosen to only use VCFAX and PIMIX, but I don't dismiss the rationale from others to use some of these other funds. For me, I would not touch IOFIX with a 10 foot pole, but there are many others who believe this is the next great multisector bond oef.
At any rate, it appears to me that you are using relatively conservative bond oefs, but you could very easily change your criteria for other bond oefs to fit your investing roles you have defined for each fund.
Investment Thoughts January 2020 First time poster, greetings to all, posting some investment thoughts via stream of consciousness, all feedback welcome
I'm heavily invested in Dominion Energy Reliability Notes, paying 2.7% / $50k+ investments, you are lower on the capital structure here, full access to your funds at any time, no FDIC but backed by the financial strength of the company. Does anyone have any experience investing in these Notes or have additional input?
Following closely the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors...does anyone on that thread really trust/know what their funds are invested in? Even conservative funds with asset backed holdings rated highly by the rating agencies you have to wonder don't you? Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes. Driving up Sheridan Road in the affluent North Shore burbs of CHI seems every fifth McMansion is up for sale...and same homes been for sale seems like over two years...escape from taxes and/or many of those folks living in those expensive homes know we are in an epic asset bubble?
Heavily invested in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Berkshire - B (BRK/B), consider them a sort of "defacto", well managed, mutual funds without the fees. Follow Akre and Ackman via GuruFocus new holdings, have invested in Agilent (A) and Descartes Systems Group (DSGX). Heavily invested in Medtronic (MDT) and Teleflex (TFX), we're all getting older and looking for the repeal of the ridiculous Medical Device Tax (taxes profits not revenue, huh, who thought that was a good idea, companies thus cut jobs or sent solid paying jobs overseas).
Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance, "skimming off the top" with their management fees. ETFs are not for me, do like their low cost but too linked to herd behavior, what goes up must come down, no? I'm amazed by how many folks who invest in their 401Ks etc just follow what they are told by the "plan representatives" and have no idea how the markets work or what they are invested in.
Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above.
Comments?
Good investing to all,
B