I love

Yesterday a slew of junk bond funds closed at all time highs on a total return basis. The proxy index for junk bonds closed at 1343.59 vs its May 1 all time high of 1344.07. Prior to that May 1 top, junk bonds had been making all times highs on a seemingly daily basis since mid February. Unless there is some reversal in today’s trading (anything is possible) the junk bond index will also close at all time highs.. How can this be? If you read the commentary below you will read that the macro and micro economic data continues to deteriorate.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-big-wall-street-bear-warns-his-bleak-scenario-for-2019-is-taking-shape-2019-06-10

New highs in the S@P today. So now what? Place your bets. The bears would argue many of the other indexes are still below their highs of January 2018 and this is a bull trap. I believe Jeff Gundlach is in that camp who continues to postulate “this is a bear market. The bulls would argue we are breaking out of a triple top in the S@P and it will be a swift move upwards from here. They would also argue there is a lot of bearish sentiment and underinvested investors out there for a market making news highs. In the meantime, today will be yet another new all time high in the junk bond market.

No, not international at all, but LV; buys and sells monthly within the SP500 according to rules involving valuations.
Do a search here, several have analyzed it thoroughly, and its own writeups are clear enough, at least on the surface. Buy the cheaper DSEEX if you can put in >$100k.
I myself own it; it's now my sole equity holding, and almost 3/4 of our total.
The 'need' is that it steadily outperforms.

Ditto my recent comments about M* being enthralled with certain value shops. I have no problem with them endorsing Vanguard Global Equity, but Oakmark Global and Causeway Global Value rank in the bottom 15% of similar funds for the five-year period. Somehow Russ Kinnel finds a way to crown Oakmark's managers as star stock pickers despite their mediocre records. Why do I subscribe any more?

Cintas (CTAS, $191.55) is perhaps best-known for providing corporate uniforms, but the company also offers maintenance supplies, tile, and carpet cleaning services and even compliance training. As such, it’s seen by some investors as a bet on jobs growth.
There may be something to that. Shares have more than tripled over the past five years vs. a gain of just 51% for the S&P 500. In January, the economy notched its 100th consecutive month of employment gains. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims stand at levels last seen in 1969.
Regardless of how the labor market is doing, Cintas is a stalwart as a dividend payer. The company has raised its payout every year since going public in 1983. Most recently, in October, Cintas raised its annual dividend by 26.5% to $2.05 a share.

FYI: Dividend stocks, which have performed well this year, may get another boost if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
With lower rates, income-seeking investors could use dividend stocks more than ever, and growth investors may also be interested because declining low interest rates prop up prices of higher-yielding stocks.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dividend-stocks-hot-this-year-may-get-even-hotter-thanks-to-the-federal-reserve-2019-06-19/print

FYI: Insurer Sun Life Financial has created an independent business, bringing together its affiliated asset management firms and the investment capabilities of its general account under a new brand called SLC Management.
This launch caps off six years of work. In 2012, Sun Life started building an asset management business to offer outside clients the strategies it uses for its own portfolio, such as commercial mortgages, liability-driven investing, and real estate.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fx5y3rzwtmp2/Here-Comes-a-New-160-Billion-Asset-Manager

Averages are just that, averages. Some prices go up more than average, some less.
I believe the two fastest growing costs are health care and education. While health care tends to hit older people disproportionately hard, education costs tend to bypass seniors. In San Francisco, while the cash fare for a MUNI ride is about to go up from $1.35 to $1.50 for seniors, the Clipper card fare will remain the same $1.25 that it was in 2017.
https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2018/08/fiscal_year_2019_and_2020_fare_table_2018_0802.pdf
Not to mention that the value of that fare was recently (Sept. 2018) increased. A single fare now gets you a transfer good for two hours instead of 90 minutes. This allows "customers the ability to complete round-trips for shorter errands, such as medical appointments, shopping or dining". As someone who still games these systems (and keeps a Clipper card on hand for trips to the Bay Area), I appreciate that.
https://www.sfmta.com/blog/fare-time-limits-increase-two-hours-and-new-cheaper-all-day-passes-way
Consumers tend to notice the prices that jump while downplaying the prices that remain relatively stable. Similar to investors feeling worse about their investments going down by 10% than they feel good about their investments going up by 10%.

Excerpt: “Originally, the CPI was determined by comparing the price of a fixed basket of goods and services spanning two different periods. In this case, the CPI was a cost of goods index (COGI). However, over time, the U.S. Congress embraced the view that the CPI should reflect changes in the cost to maintain a constant standard of living. Consequently, the CPI has evolved into a cost of living index (COLI). ... Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions. According to the BLS, the changes removed biases that caused the CPI to overstate the inflation rate. The new methodology takes into account changes in the quality of goods and substitution. Substitution, the change in purchases by consumers in response to price changes, changes the relative weighting of the goods in the basket. The overall result tends to be a lower CPI. However, critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a COGI to a COLI as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI.”. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
A few take aways:
- The methodology for computing CPI has undergone several changes over the years So, it’s not the same yardstick today as it was 30, 40 or 50 years ago. Looking at long term historical CPI numbers as some type of norm is tantamount to comparing apples to oranges (or at least mixing them together)..
- These changes were to an extent politically inspired.
- CPI purports to take into account the increased value of the products consumers purchase. So, if you choose to drive a stick shift car with an AM radio and roll-down windows and without power steering, seat-belts or side view mirrors, than the price of new cars has increased by only 2-3% annually. (Good luck finding one.) You could also hue to that government figure by switching to B&W TV and sticking an antenna on your roof instead of enjoying cable. And if you could still find one in a box somewhere, buying a “new” Vic-20 home computer or maybe an Apple II E would allow you to fully appreciate that 2.9% inflation rate. Finally, (at great risk of being redundant), if you can find a physician willing to provide only the level of health care (including prescription medications) you would have received 50 years ago, than your health care costs may have increased by that 2-3% number.
- It would be nearly impossible to measure the change in the value of some products. Take air travel for instance. How in jiggers do you calculate the real cost difference when the airlines keep tacking on fees for things like checking a bag, using the overhead storage compartment or selecting a window seat? But if you could, you’d still have to figure out how to account for the diminished value stemming from the discontinuance of meals on flights (once standard), non-refundable tickets and smaller more uncomfortable seats.
- CPI doesn’t consider the increasing need for medical care as the population ages. So CPI for those of us 70+ may be a bit different (I suspect somewhat higher) than for a much younger individual.
I don’t know whether those numbers Catch quoted included the effect of compounding. But suspect not. When running a 3% inflation rate through a compounding calculator I get a 15.93% cost increase over 5 years. Inflation looks a bit more onerous when viewed over longer periods.

--- Inflation rate
A common measure of inflation in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). From 1925 through 2018 the CPI has a long-term average of 2.9% annually. Over the last 40 years highest CPI recorded was 13.5% in 1980. For 2018, the last full year available, the CPI was 2.2% annually as reported by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.
--- Rate of return
This is the annually compounded rate of return you expect from your investments before taxes. The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31st 2018, had an annual compounded rate of return of 12.1%, including reinvestment of dividends. From January 1, 1970 to December 31st 2018, the average annual compounded rate of return for the S&P 500®, including reinvestment of dividends, was approximately 10.2% (source: www.standardandpoors.com). Since 1970, the highest 12-month return was 61% (June 1982 through June 1983). The lowest 12-month return was -43% (March 2008 to March 2009).
Hi @hank
I don't underestimate or have a blind eye to inflation. B.O.L. CPI is a bit twisted with what is used for calculations.
I don't allow the data in the above 2 displays to cause me to think that things won't change.
Hell, I/we still keep a paper ledger for all expenses by category; a habit I've had since 1970.
As I've stated here numerous times........this time is different. And so it remains, seeking a financial path since the market melt.
Too tired to think or write more tonight.
Good night.
Catch

Anyone who believes that overall inflation is running anywhere close to 3% is living in a dream world. Hell, a round-trip senior MUNI fare just went from $2.70 to $3.00 (over 10% increase) and that's just one random number. Everything in the SF Bay Area is going up steeply and regularly, and has been for a few years now.

Just a heads-up, and it may not last, but for some reason DLEUX has finally, recently surged to the head of its class.
It is valuation-rules-based with monthly churn, I believe.
Its past performance has been meh, and I have kvetched about same, but now over its life, meaning since the end of 2016), it outperforms, so far as I checked, all of the top European mfunds and etfs except for Fido's and TRP's.

Why do you think inflation is or will remain at 2.9%?
A jar of fruit (one of my favorites) that had been selling for $1.00 at WalMart jumped 17 cents overnight last week. That doesn’t sound like much. But it’s a 17% overnight increase. I’m amazed how most people seem to underestimate the real increases in cost of living.
Don’t believe the govt. figures. They have a vested interest in making inflation appear as low as possible (SS adjustments being one example).

The hope that CD's would continue to rise so that you could build a nice ladder is quickly becoming a pipe dream. The best rates at Schwab right now are the 3-6 month CDs at 2.3?. To get anything better you have to go out 10 years!. The MM is down to around 2.2%. Oh well. Tough on retirees.

From the prospectus' cited page:

To provide annuity income, on the Annuity Date, all Accumulation Units in the Investment Option will be redeemed and the money will be transferred to our general account. All money used to support annuity income payments will be held in our general account thereafter.

You get an income guarantee only if you elect to take annuity income (or you're forced to, by age). When you get that guarantee, no more VIP Balanced Fund. It is redeemed, traded in for the guaranteed income stream.
This may help:
Think Advisor, Understanding Deferred Variable Annuities’ Two Phases
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2017/08/14/understanding-deferred-variable-annuities-two-phas/?slreturn=20190518131749
The only guarantee that the Fidelity annuity provides is in the second phase, the distribution (annuitization) phase as described above. There are ways some annuities provide inflation protection while guaranteeing lifetime income. But the Fidelity annuity simply doesn't do this.
In its accumulation phase you get a form of inflation protection by being able to invest in the market. In its distribution phase, you get a cash flow guaranteed for life, but one with no protection against inflation. To get that guarantee for life, you have to give up your VIP Balanced.

FYI: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System was one of the first public-pension systems to tie its investments to social activism. Now it is having second thoughts.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-dilemma-save-the-world-or-make-money-11560684601

@msf
You noted: "The Fidelity annuity does provide an income guarantee, but like many annuities, that guarantee locks in a fixed monthly payment amount. No more VIP Balanced Fund. The options offered by the Fidelity annuity are extremely limited: only single life with 10 years certain and joint life with 10 years certain. No annual increases, no adjustments for inflation. ( See p. 17 (pdf p. 23) of its prospectus.)"
The prospectus you linked for April, 2019 includes VIP Balanced, as well as the other choices.
Perhaps, I should have provided a more direct path for the type of annuity I would use (below).
I'm not writing about what one may name as "traditional" types of annuities as you noted above.
The Fido page I intended for use for annuity money is HERE:
I'm sure I've only confused those reading here. As it should be, one must read and understand the documents.
Away I must be...
Catch

The article discusses guaranteed income streams upon annuitization, or in the case of deferred annuities with GLWB riders, drawing down according to a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal rate.
Those guarantees are the whole point. If a portion of your income is certain (e.g. Social Security), then you can plan the remainder of your portfolio around that. Absent the guarantee, an annuity is nothing but a tax shelter - a higher priced, non-deductible T-IRA.
People lament the demise of the pension (guaranteed income stream for life), yet consistently decline to make the rational choice to annuitize. Without appreciating the value of any guarantee (apparently unless it comes from the government or an employer), it is difficult to evaluate the relative merits of different types of guarantees.
The Fidelity annuity does provide an income guarantee, but like many annuities, that guarantee locks in a fixed monthly payment amount. No more VIP Balanced Fund. The options offered by the Fidelity annuity are extremely limited: only single life with 10 years certain and joint life with 10 years certain. No annual increases, no adjustments for inflation. ( See p. 17 (pdf p. 23) of its prospectus.)
So its guarantee doesn't provide inflation protection (the subject of Tomlinson's article). If you want to gamble that inflation will stay moderately low, then, as Pfau observed, fixed annuities without adjustments such as Fidelity's can pay off better. And the guarantee does provide longevity protection so long as the payments doesn't get eroded too much by inflation.
These days, if you want some potential upside from the market while still having a guaranteed floor on your income stream and a guarantee for life, you look into living benefit guarantees, such as the GLWB rider discussed in the article. Fidelity's annuity doesn't provide this option, but Vanguard's does, as do Schwab's two VAs. You can do a 1035 exchange into them when you're ready to start drawing cash out.

He must be smoking something when today's 10 years Treasuries is yielding 2.5%. It is highly unlikely to reach 4% higher in two years. Especially now that Trump is urging Chairman Powell to cut rates. Today the Fed will decide the rates going forward - most likely they will hold the rate unchanged since the inflation is well below the 2% threshold.

“The results of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest fund manager survey (FMS) are "the most bearish" since the financial crisis.During the month of June, the average fund manager flipped from overweight global equities to underweight. Specifically, a net 21% of fund managers were underweight, the lowest level since March 2009. That measure represents a 32-percentage point drop month over month, the second biggest one-month drop since the survey’s inception.”
“ ‘FMS investors have not been this bearish since the Global Financial Crisis, with pessimism driven by trade war and recession concerns,” writes Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. “The tactical ‘pain trade’ is higher yields and higher stocks, particularly if the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday.’ “
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fund-managers-most-bearish-since-crisis-112100919.html

Hi sir congrats... Are you planning to buy individual bonds like hertz car rental like before... 2.3% Ytm is a great vehicle if you do not want any risks
Ford, 6.625% 1oct2028, USD (US345370BY59, 345370BY5)