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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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    One issue I am evaluating is how much, and what kind, of bond oefs, I want to hold in my taxable account. I have held BTMIX for all of 2019, and it had a good year, but it averages below 3% total return over its history. I have generally wanted funds in my taxable account, with an average total return history of over 3%. Both BTMIX and DBLSX can have TR years of over 3%, but they usually revert back to their "safe" but lower TR. I have held NVHAX periodically in the past, but it is more volatile and risky than BTMIX. I have a few shares of SEMMX in my taxable account, and it has a history of averaging close to 5% over it history. SEMMX is not tax efficient, so if I increased it in my taxable account, I would restrict the portfolio percentage in a smaller amount. Another fund I do not hold, but interests me, is ZEOIX. In my taxable account, I prefer to hold several different kind of bond oefs, for some diversification benefits. Holding a Muni fund, a nontraditional bond fund, a short term bond fund, and a short duration HY bond fund, would be a nice, but low risk diversification mix. Any thoughts on the benefits of holding a diverse array of bond oefs in your taxable account?
  • The best year financial markets have ever had?
    Nice post @davfor - I was thinking of doing the same the evening before your post went up just based on how my balanced funds, along with few I don’t own, have done this year. But your colorful and complete graph tells the whole story.
    Aside from small amounts in some specialty funds, my equity exposure is thru balanced type funds: PRWCX +24.5%. The other two, RPGAX and DODBX are up close to 20%. My benchmark, 40/60 TRRIX, is a real surprise. Up nearly 16%. I’ll refrain from posting personal performance data, other than to restate as said previously, that most years I tend to track TRRIX quite closely. Those who are into tech and equity-centric funds have done better. But I won’t look a gift-horse in the mouth either.
    Last year was a downer for most of us. As far as 2020? Might as well throw darts blindfolded. Who really knows? What is a bit uncommon, I think, is that bonds have held up reasonably well in this still very low rate environment. Nat. resources also seem to be coming around at long last. I guess I agree with Stanley Druckenmiller that equities are in some sort of bubble, but that this could last for years or even decades more - so he stays invested. Good Druckenmiller interview on Bloomberg last week. Tried to link the clip but couldn’t make it work.
    :) @Mark has just posted the Druckenmiller article & video below. The cool thing about Stanley is that his dead-pan delivery would easily qualify him for a slot on late-night comedy TV should he decide some day to get out of the investment business.
    Thanks @Mark
  • The best year financial markets have ever had?
    I don’t make predictions about the markets or pay attention to those made by others. The returns in 2019 have surprised me, but I’m always surprised by particularly good years. I disagree with the characterization of 2019 as the best year ever, but certainly hasn’t been the best for my portfolio. For example, returns in 2009 were much better for me. I’ve been investing for more than 30 years and there have been many years during that period with comparable or better returns.
  • *
    Hi dtconroe
    I find your posts informative and helpful on another site. I am 63 recently retired and not collecting social security or any pension. I have moved to a very conservative portfolio with the definite emphasis on principal preservation also. I will probably take a small pension and my social security at 65 or 66. I am at approx 21% Cash,cds...,20% balanced funds(vwiax,fbalx,vbiax...), 20% equities (fskax,vcsax,vimax...),20% bond funds mostly with pimco (pttrx,pigix,pmzix...)12% Pimix, 7% short term (vfsux). I am willing to forego larger gains and am content with the lower yields and less principal risk. I am mostly in taxable accounts and not tax efficient . I don't feel very knowledgeable when I read posts by others and have and will continue to plod along. I have done pretty well by just being in the market, knowing I have not maximized returns. I am looking to invest some from the cash account and was looking at IISIX also. I know it has been talked about on the other site I follow that you post on also . I am trying to get where a market downturn won't effect anything I do. Worse case scenario I will just put more in vwiax or vwiux.
  • Invesco is Closing 42 ETFs in January 2020
    Looks like INVESCO produces a lot of junk. Wonder how much of a haircut the investors in these funds is going to get. That's the story I am interested in. Bet it doesn't make print!!!
    Haircut? I’d rather doubt that. Reason for the closings is duplication of offerings with Oppenheimer, with whom they’ve recently merged. In addition, they’re being squeezed by larger better players in the market, and so looking to cut costs.
    A lot of junk? Some have suggested that. I really don’t know. I’ve long clung to a few A shares at Oppenheimer I purchased directly for an IRA at a much less experienced age (around 1995). There were things to like and things to dislike at Oppenheimer. But I always found something to invest in there that provoked my interest. In particular, there were some niche funds (like a gold fund) that TRP has yet to offer.
    I’m staggered by how much larger the selection is at Invesco. Who needs 50-100 new funds to digest at my age? There is a lot of duplication with Oppenheimer - a reason for the shuttering of many funds. At a glance they have a similarity high fee structure to what Oppenheimer had. I’ve been under the impression they are London based, but a quick check tonight revealed that they are headquartered in Atlanta GA. Part of my invested assets will be coming out of there in 2020 (wherever they are).
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    ”I took a sneak peak (TMSRX) at Marketwatch ... Looking at 4/th Qter. 2018 shows app. 7% drop.”
    I’m not sure what the above is a reference to. If @Derf means TMSRX lost 7% from its inception 2/23/18 to year’s end, that sounds about right. ‘18 was nasty for most everything. And right out of the gate a fund’s liable to do anything. But if he means the fund fell 7% in the 4th quarter, I’ve checked with M* and found that it fell only 3.34% during Quarter 4, 2018. It’s hard to get reliable performance data on such a new fund. So I plotted its course from 10/1/18 until 12/31/18 using M*’s on-site tool. A $10,000 investment in TMSRX on 10/1 was worth slightly less than $9700 at year’s end. I was able to obtain more easily the Quarter 4 performance data (from Zack’s) for OAKBX, a balanced fund I owned up until the end of 2018. During Quarter 4, 2018, OAKBX fell 9.25%.
    I don’t think this makes the case either way as to whether someone should own the fund. Just wanted to make sure Derf and I were looking at the same figures and time-frame for TMSRX. Glad some folks found @bee’s thread interesting or helpful.
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    There seems to be little rhyme or reason as to which funds within a family are sold NTF at a given brokerage.
    Fidelity displays Advisor class shares for a couple of TRP funds on its retail site. Still, they're only accessible through Fidelity® Wealth Services, and carry a TF: PRITX / PAITX, PRTAX / PATAX.
    The difference between the classes is a 12b-1 fee created to pay for the platform or advisor. A few fund other families do something like this with N (retail) and I (institutional) shares. TCW goes so far as to make both classes available with the same minimum purchase, so you choose whether to pay a transaction fee for the same fund. See, e.g. TGFNX / TGCFX.
    Consider a fund like JECAX. NTF at Schwab and TDAmeritrade, but sold with a load at Fidelity, even though Fidelity waives the load on A shares for most of JP Morgan funds.
    Way back in the dark ages, when it was hard to find a free checking account, I was able to purchase a T. Rowe Price Advisor class fund NTF at Citicorp Investment Services. I figured that the extra 12b-1 fee amounted to just a few dollars and it was a cheap way to qualify for free checking. I've long since moved the position to T. Rowe Price, where they did a tax-free conversion to Investor class shares.
  • What are your favorite closed T Rowe Price funds?
    By far PRWCX which ranks for performance at M* for 1-3-5-10-15 years at 1-3% top funds.
    Instead of POAGX you can own QQQ which made more money + better risk attributes. See (link).
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    Hi Hank,
    Wow! Did not look at returns.....and, you're right. Saying that, here's what I see:
    PGTAX - 5G all across Asia......now, more to come next year. China stimulating.....helping tech. The want to be No. 1.
    FSDAX - have owned it for years. Added many times. It's worked out well. See no difference now. New U.S. military budget out.....no surprise it increased. But bought this last time because of Boeing.
    FEMKX - Central banks across the world are all cutting. If I remember, there were 60 rate cuts this year. So next year, they should really kick in as it takes 6 to 9 months to show up.
    SO, those are my reasons for what they're worth. Also, did you see WealthTrack this weekend? Ed Hyman was on. He said a lot of good things that I agree with.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. SVEN + 1
  • The best year financial markets have ever had?
    Did not expect a stellar return this yr, so many pundits from ... expect flat line and depressions discussions, stocking loosing 25%+ beginning 2019 and economy crashes down early 2019.
    That why it's good have a plan and stay diversed and shut out all noises
  • Gold stocks remain cheap
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313638-gold-stocks-remain-cheap
    Gold stocks remain cheap
    Summary
    Gold stocks remain very undervalued relative to gold. They’ve spent most of this bull languishing under stock-panic extremes, which means they still have vast room to mean revert higher.
    Such low gold-stock prices compared to prevailing gold levels virtually guarantee the miners will enjoy seriously-outsized gains during future gold uplegs. They can way-outperform gold for years before normalizing.
    But that longer-term super-bullish fundamental outlook doesn’t negate the need for periodic corrections to rebalance sentiment. The recent one is likely still underway today, as key gold-stock indicators haven't bottomed.
    Maybe time to dip a little into gold and pm...
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    @Derf - I wasn’t trying to hype TMSRX. It came up as part of a larger discussion about investing late in the retirement years. I took the time to address your question about the 16% cash position and tried to share a few thoughts on a fund that’s barely one-year old.
    I’d be very surprised if anyone else who posts here owns it. I own a great many funds that are not currently popular. I have to answer only to myself. So, you invest your way and I’ll invest mine.
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    I took a sneak peak (TMSRX) at Marketwatch & to my surprise 32% in TRPUSBF. Looking at 4/th Qter. 2018 shows app. 7% drop. I guess it boils down to downside protection vs upside gain. Is anyone into this fund for say 10% or more of retirement income funding. I did take note it appeared to give out some donuts , but as of now the dividend is unknown to me. Derf
    P.S. donuts $.27 & a wavier in effect for ER.
  • Invesco is Closing 42 ETFs in January 2020
    Oops - That #@*# Barrons link worked a couple days ago. Wish publishers would stop teasing us.
    Here’s a better link with the list of closings. As far as I know, these will be liquidated unless investors exchange into other funds first.https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/invesco-shuttering-42-etfs-1b-assets?nopaging=1
    And here’s the Invesco Press Release: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/invesco-announces-changes-to-its-us-etf-and-mutual-fund-product-lines-300974616.html
  • The best year financial markets have ever had?
    Transport yourself back to this date in 2018. Would you have predicted these results for 2019? (I know the year has exceeded my modest expectations for the markets.)
    For all the angst about trade wars, geopolitics and a sputtering and overly indebted global economy, 2019 might just be the best year investors have ever had.
    image
    “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
    https://reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-2019-graphic/the-best-year-financial-markets-have-ever-had-idUSKBN1YO266
  • 7 Best Small-Cap Funds to Buy and Hold
    >>NAESX is investor class with a minimum of $3000 but it is closed.
    And yet this is the share class that appears in the US News article. Makes one wonder if this is yet another column that was just phoned in.
    >> So VSCPX with ER 0.03, VSCIX with ER 0.04, or a bargain VSMAX with ER 0.05 are the open choices if you are interested in the Vanguard index mutual fund in that space.
    There's also the ETF share class VB, with the same ER (0.05%) as the Admiral class, though with a bid/ask spread on trading and a minute SEC fee on sale.
    ---
    Generally when I consider an index fund (which I do on occasion), the first thing I look at is the choice of index. Only then do I look at the particular fund offerings, under the assumption that there's going to be some fund company offering a tracking fund for the index with good management and low fees.
    In the small cap space, I would be inclined to avoid R2K funds, simply because R2K is the most susceptible index to front running. The S&P 600 is a somewhat actively managed index (selected by committee, not algorithm), and operates with the restriction that it includes only profitable companies.
    Here's a column comparing attributes of those two indexes:
    https://tradingsim.com/blog/sp600-index/
    The Vanguard fund you're looking at follows a CRSP index. A distinguishing feature of this index is that it doesn't reach as far down into smaller cap stocks as the others, with an average market cap over $4B as opposed to less than $2B for the two others.
    There are a variety of other indexes in the space as well. BSMAX tracks the Rusell 2500, which is the R2K plus 500 mid caps. Its average market cap is similar to VSMAX's. SFSNX follows the Russell RAFI US Small Co. Index (see RAFI indexes/Rob Arnott). $3B market cap.
  • 7 Best Small-Cap Funds to Buy and Hold
    Wife had VSCIX in 403b. We liked it until it swooned with the others, end of 2018. Switched into VEIRX. Happy, very happy, once again.