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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fund Managers Bet on China’s Consumers
    China may be an odd choice for investors seeking shelter from a Sino-U.S. trade war. Yet, money managers in Asia are pouring funds into Chinese stocks as the long-term promise of a growing middle class trumps more immediate fears about tariffs.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-markets-recession-analysis/seeking-shelter-from-trade-war-fund-managers-bet-on-chinas-consumers-idUSKCN1TE0FN
  • PARWX THOUGHTS?
    To avoid random noise, or more likely selective time frames, the government requires funds advertising performance to use standardized periods ending on calendar quarters. 17 CFR 230.482(d)(3)(ii).
    So I took a look at the link Ted provided, and clicked on the "quarterly" tab. It seems that PARWX, as of the most recently completed quarter, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 3, 5, and 10 years.
    The fact that these numbers have shifted in the past two months is reflective of little more than the fund's poor performance over the past handful of weeks. To put it another way, this change isn't so much about long term performance as it is about "what have you done for me lately?"
    Over the past three months (through June 13), the fund has underperformed by 7%. In the first quarter of 2019 it outperformed by 4¾%. In the fourth quarter of 2018, it underperformed by 3⅔%. Sure it's volatile. To paraphrase Mark Twain, if you don't like the performance, wait a few months.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Stocks Slip as Middle East Tensions Boost Haven Assets
    FYI: Global stocks dipped on Friday as rising tensions in the Middle East added to concerns over global growth and trade, driving investors to haven assets.
    In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% in opening trade. That followed a downbeat session in Asia, with indexes in China, Korea and Hong Kong all lower, though Japan’s Nikkei managed a 0.4% climb.
    Late Thursday, the U.S. said Iran was behind an attack that day on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman that sent oil prices soaring. That added to an already tense situation in the crucial shipping channel after an attack on four other tankers last month.
    Investors Friday were buying government bonds, gold and the Japanese yen, all assets generally considered havens when risks are growing.
    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, which falls as the price rises, slipped to 2.059% on Friday from 2.096% on Thursday. Yields on Germany’s equivalent government bond fell deeper into negative territory and were last at -0.260%.
    Gold prices hit a 14-month high amid the rising tensions. Spot gold was last up 1% at $1,356.70 a troy ounce. The yen also rose 0.1% against both the euro and U.S. dollar.
    European stocks most exposed to oil prices and global trade were registering the biggest drops on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600’s technology subindex was down 1.1% while its autos & parts subindex was 0.6% lower.
    In Asia, the Shanghai Composite was down 1%, while the Shenzhen index was 1.8% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.7% amid protests in the city against an unpopular extradition bill. Data later in the day showed China’s industrial output slowed, adding to fears the country’s economic growth was faltering.
    U.S. retail sales data due later Friday will be closely watched by investors as they look for clues on the nation’s largely consumer-driven economic growth, analysts said.
    The release is also the last major U.S. economic report before a meeting of the Fed’s policy-making committee next week.
    Regards,
    Ted
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-open-lower-friday-as-broadcoms-weak-outlook-reminds-wall-street-of-us-china-trade-battle-2019-06-14/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-slip-as-middle-east-tensions-boost-haven-assets-11560499874
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/asia-stocks-head-for-mixed-start-yields-retreat-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/bond-yields-slip-stocks-suffer-on-cooling-china-data-idUSKCN1TF03P
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-broadcom-warning-apple-stock-market-rally-amd-stock/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/stock-market-middle-east-tensions-weigh-china-data-in-focus.html
    U.K.
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/heavyweight-financials-exporter-stocks-drag-ftse-100-lower-idUKKCN1TF0OK
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/chipmakers-drive-european-shares-lower-after-broadcom-shock-idUSKCN1TF0OD
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-mixed-as-global-tensions-rise-on-apparent-oil-tanker-attacks-2019-06-13/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/us-treasury-yields-continue-to-slide-as-middle-east-tensions-escalate.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/forex-market-federal-reserve-meeting-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/oil-market-middle-east-tanker-attacks-us-iran-tensions-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/gold-market-fed-rate-cut-expectations-middle-east-tensions-in-focus.html
    Cuirrent Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • PARWX THOUGHTS?
    hmgodwin: For your information I've linked the performance of PARWX, check it out.
    Regards,
    Ted
    YTD-5yrs. No
    10yrs. Yes
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PARWX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • PARWX THOUGHTS?
    I would sell but not based on the 10 year performance, which it did in fact beat the S&P 500. Not sure what Ted was looking at. Personally I like BIAWX for my LG exposure.
  • PARWX THOUGHTS?
    @Carefree: Has had difficulty beating it's benchmark the S&P 500 Index over the last ten years, I'd sell.
    Regards,
    Ted
    In what ways has it had difficulty beating the S&P 500? It seems to have beaten it cleanly over the past 3, 5, and 10 year time frames.
  • Merrill Edge not very mutual fund friendly
    A not so brief followup. I sent Merrill a set of questions given all the processing in my accounts. It took a week, but I did get a response which was more a reiteration of what happened than an explanation. Whatever. Here are some excerpts:
    (Merrill online counts TTTXX MMF as cash available to trade online even though they don't automatically redeem the fund; what happens if you actually place a trade w/o selling the fund):
    For fund held in TTTXX, this amount may still show as available to invest ... online due to this fund being considered a cash equivalent. However, if you place a trade using the funds held in TTTXX, it would be necessary to deposit funds into the account or liquidate shares of TTTXX to make funds available before the trade settlement date.
    But what happens if I don't place an order to sell TTTXX? Not answered. No explanation as to why this MMF shows up as cash while others don't.
    (BPTXX MMF divs reinvested in fund even after I closed the position:)
    if there were pending dividends set to be paid, the dividend received would be paid based on your previous reinvestment options selected for that fund
    It goes on to say that I could change my reinvestment options to prevent this from happening. At other brokerages, when I close out a position, the trailing divs go to cash (if position liquidated) or follow shares (if transferred in kind).
    (Reinvesting dividends in MMFs and bank sweep accounts:)
    money market mutual funds will typically reinvest fractional amounts while bank deposits or money funds like TTTXX or the ML Direct Deposit Program are only able to reinvest in whole dollar amounts.
    OMG. "Money market mutual funds" get all their divs reinvested, but "money funds" like the money market fund TTTXX only reinvest whole dollar amounts?
    ML Direct Depost Program (MLDPP) is the BofA sweep account for taxable Merrill accounts. Apparently bank accounts like the MLDPP credit only whole dollars of interest. What real bank refuses to credit pennies of interest back to your account? Is BofA a real bank?
    The response goes on to say that for IRAs, the equivalent sweep program is called "Bank of America NA RASP". The problem is that in my IRA, my one penny of interest was credited to the bank account. So what is different between the two BofA sweep accounts? Is this RASP program not like MLDPP?
    (Wrong cost basis as described in previous post:)
    when transferring securities from another firm, this information is updated based on the information provided by the other firm.
    Blame the other guy. Who do you think got the cost basis wrong, Merrill or Schwab (the other firm)?
    (Roth conversion form was submitted 5/29; still not processed):
    due to high volume of requests it has not yet been reviewed.
    I submitted a substantially identical form on 12/18/2018 and it was processed in two days. Who knew that the run up to Flag Day was a busier season than end of year for Roth conversions?
    Almost needless to say, once I get the cost basis corrected (if I can) and receive my bonus for transferring in the taxable account, I'll be transferring it out. I expect to convert my full T-IRA account at Merrill to a Roth where I will let it sit. I plan on no activity, no other accounts remaining.
  • Here’s why advisors may urge retirees to load up on equities
    Thanks @msf for your (typically) well reasoned and precisely detailed analysis. I’d preface my comments by saying things always look rosier late in a decade-long bull market cycle in equities. I’m confident that if this bull lasts another 3 or 4 years the than prevailing “expert” advice will be to pile 100% into aggressive equity funds because fixed income is tantamount to rubbish.
    - Easy to overlook is investor risk tolerance. No matter what one’s rationale may be for “loading up” on equities, there’s nothing like a 40-50% drubbing over a couple miserable years to bring us to our knees and shock us back to our Puritan sensibilities. In too many cases those equities piled into during sunnier days get unloaded by investors at discounted prices late in the bear cycle.
    - Also overlooked by the article’s underlying assumption is that although investors might well possess a pension, SS, or annuity assets that would allow some level of subsistence, their portfolio of equities, bonds, etc. is not without some immediate purpose. In many cases (speaking from personal experience) those assets are withdrawn regularly for major expenses like travel, new vehicles and upgrades / maintenance on their principal dwelling. It’s also an emergency fund for unexpected medical costs and provides needed “insurance” against having the carpet pulled out from underneath by a reduction in SS or pension benefits (though the assumption is these benefits will remain intact).
    - Further, the invested portfolio provides needed growth to compensate for inflation - arguably better than those (somewhat fixed) pension, annuity, SS benefits can. Point being: Treat those invested assets with the same care & due diligence you would if you had none of those added “insurance” products.
    The article seems related to an argument advanced by John Bogle around 2013 when he said investors should treat SS as a “bond” in their allocation decisions. It was part of a wider ranging interview, so I’m posting only one commentary from a secondary source. (But the actual full interview is linked within the commentary). I’m also posting a lengthy mfo discussion from around the same time in which a number of members from various tiers shared their (somewhat divergent) thoughts on the question.
    Bogle’s position: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-save-for-retirement-vanguard-john-bogle-2017-1
    MFO discussion (September 2013) : https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/7814/count-social-security-as-part-of-portfolio
  • Here’s why advisors may urge retirees to load up on equities
    I generally agree with this article (about counting annuities as part of the "safe" portion of your portfolio allocation). It does gloss over a couple of points that merit further thought.
    One is how to reduce to present value, i.e. how does one calculate the present value of an income stream in order to know how much one has in "safe" investments? It suggests using the commercial rate for an immediate annuity today that would be comparable to one's pension (if one is lucky enough to have one).
    This approach could also be applied to an annuity that one annuitied some time in the past. One might have paid $100K for an immediate annuity in 2014, while that same annuity might cost only $70K today. In part because one has fewer years of life left, but also in part because interest rates have risen slightly. In that sense, an income stream is very much like a bond portfolio - its day to day mark to market value fluctuates.
    Notice also that the value of social security isn't discounted to present value. That's because it is inflation adjusted. The value of $20K/year in 2020 is the same as the value of $20K/year in 2030. No need to discount. In the article, it appears that the writer assumed a 22 year life expectancy; $20K x 22 years = $440K shown for Client B.
    The other point to think about is why own bonds at all, if your guaranteed income stream (pension, annuities) is large enough to cover essential expenses. The article suggests that the reason is to let people sleep at night ("risk tolerance").
    This consideration is real but emotional (since by hypothesis the risk is minimal). If people have trouble addressing this, they will also likely continue ignoring the present value of their income stream for asset allocation. Because all one sees on one's monthly brokerage statements are the assets in the portfolio.
    Of course any form of insurance (social security, pensions, annuities) has a cost (overhead). This cost can be reclaimed via the flexibility to be more aggressive with the rest of one's portfolio. Similarly, keeping a cash reserve (see thread on how much cash to keep in retirement) allows one to be more aggressive with the remaining assets.
  • ANGL Provides Best Exposure To Junk Bonds In The ETF Universe
    I use FALN, not that small at 91mm, and save a bit on fees.
  • ANGL Provides Best Exposure To Junk Bonds In The ETF Universe
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269847-angl-provides-best-exposure-junk-bonds-etf-universe
    ANGL Provides Best Exposure To Junk Bonds In The ETF Universe
    Jun. 12, 2019 10:01 AM ETVanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL)5 Comments3 Likes
    Summary
    ANGL invest in bonds that were investment grade when issued but no longer are based on the BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Fallen Angel High Yield Index.
    There are at least four other ETFs mirroring this strategy for "fallen angel," but others are new and very small in size.
    ANGL has out performed the other major junk bond ETFs and until the past year, the top investment-grade corporate bond fund; I consider it a buy.
    Anyone has ANGL?!
  • Here’s why advisors may urge retirees to load up on equities
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/heres-why-advisors-may-urge-retirees-to-load-up-on-equities.html
    Here’s why advisors may urge retirees to load up on equities
    Key Points
    With guaranteed income — pension, Social Security or income annuities — your client might have enough safety to step up his stock allocation in retirement, said Michael Finke, professor of wealth management at The American College.
    Consider guaranteed income sources as being similar as bonds, Finke said. That means you can increase your stock allocation elsewhere.
  • This S&P 500 Sector Is Having Its Best Month In About 4 Years, Trouncing Tech Stocks: (XLB)
    S&P sectors....okay.
    Guess its how one identifies a sector.
    Materials sector, XLB is 14.8% YTD. XLK, IT sector is +23.8 or so, YTD.
    Tech. broad based is doing fine.
    FTEC, Fidelity Tech. is +24.2% YTD.
    Don't believe June really matters all that much, eh?; in the grand scheme.
  • Bespoke: US Dividend Yields Significantly Lower Than Rest Of World
    Not saying these are the best global dividend payers; but, it is what I own in my global equity and global hybrid sleeves found in the growth & income area of my portfolio. In my global equity sleeve I own DWGAX which has a dividend yield of 2.04%, CWGIX which has a dividend yield of 2.16%, DEQAX which has a dividend yield of 2.36% and EADIX which has a dividend yield of 3.67%. In my global hybrid sleeve I own CAIBX whcih as a dividend yield of 3.15%, TEQIX which has a dividend yield of 3.71% and TIBAX which has a dividend yield of 4.35%. All these funds pay quarterly except TEQIX which pays annually and EADIX which pays monthly.
    My three highest dividend paying funds within my portfolio are PCLAX with a dividend yield of 17.23%, PMAIX with a dividend yield of 5.77% and FKINX with a dividend yield of 5.33%. PCLAX pays quarterly while PMAIX and FKINX pays monthly.
    My portfolio contains four areas of investment which includes a cash area, an income area, a growth & income area and a growth area and overall has a dividend yield of better than 3.2%. When I include capital gain distributions it tops out at better than a 5% distribution yield. My current asset allocation is 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. This portfolio generates more than enough income to meet my needs plus I have some residual left over for new investment opportunities. Going forward, should I not be able to make enough interest in my cash area to offset inflation then I'll reduce cash by 5% and raise my income area by 5%.
    My investment focus since I retired five years ago has been to invest for income generation over growth of principal. However, since I retired I have also been able to grow my principal.
  • Chou Opportunity and Chou Income Funds to liquidate
    Update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1486174/000143510919000266/chou497.htm
    497 1 chou497.htm
    CHOU AMERICA MUTUAL FUNDS
    Supplement dated June 12, 2019 to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
    On June 5, 2019, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Chou America Mutual Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Chou Opportunity Fund and the Chou Income Fund (the “Funds”) will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Funds will be distributed to shareholders.
    Each Fund will seek to complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on July 31, 2019 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholders will be permitted to redeem from the Funds prior to the Liquidation Date, according to the ordinary procedures for redemptions from the Funds described in this Prospectus. Francis Chou, the Portfolio Manager to the Funds and Chief Executive Officer of the Adviser, owns and controls a company that owns shares of each Fund (the “Chou Affiliated Shareholder”). Mr. Chou intends for this company to remain invested in each Fund in an amount that would enable each Fund to have sufficient cash to satisfy any redemptions by the other shareholders.
    The Adviser anticipates that there may be certain portfolio holdings that will not be sold for cash prior to the Liquidation Date, such as the 1.75 Term Lien Loans of Exco Resources, Inc. (“Exco”) owned by each of the Funds. As further background, Exco is involved in an insolvency proceeding and, those loans have been deemed to constitute illiquid investments.
    In order to mitigate concentration and liquidity risk, the Board has approved for the Chou Affiliated Shareholder to receive an in-kind distribution (i.e. redemption-in-kind) of the 1.75 Term Lien Loans of Exco in exchange for shares of the Funds owned by the Chou Affiliated Shareholder. In connection with this approval the Chou Affiliated Shareholder agreed to remain invested in each Fund in an amount that would enable each Fund to have sufficient cash to satisfy any redemptions by the other shareholders. Following receipt of the 1.75 Term Lien Loans of Exco, the Chou Affiliated Shareholder will own those investments and will accordingly have exposure to appreciation and depreciation in the value of those investments.
    * * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    (877) 682-6352.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Wasatch Global Select & Wasatch International Select Funds in registration
    I agree with @Crash; I have let Grandeur Peak go and used some of the dough in WAGOX. As it stands now, from my quick review of their international and global funds, there's only one (Emerging Markets Select) that seems to invest in anything but small and micro caps. Maybe the two new offerings will also venture into larger cap holdings. The high ERs kept me away, but my reluctance may have been penny foolish. My final sale of GP funds was GPGOX, which I bought almost at inception. As others here have pointed out, GP lost its momentum a couple of years ago. WAGOX caught GPGOX in late 2017 and hasn't looked back since.
  • This S&P 500 Sector Is Having Its Best Month In About 4 Years, Trouncing Tech Stocks: (XLB)
    FYI: Quick — what’s the best performing sector in the S&P 500 so far in June? No, it isn’t the highflying information technology sector — that’s second best.
    The materials sector is by far having the best month of any of the 11 sectors in S&P 500 groups, up 9.5% in the June to date, according to FactSet data, as of Wednesday afternoon trade (see charted attached).
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-sp-500-sector-is-having-its-best-month-in-about-4-years-trouncing-tech-stocks-2019-06-12/print
    M* Snapshot XLB:
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/XLB/quote.html