@Gary - the original post by Ted linked this article:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-media-is-lying-to-you-about-trumps-china-tariffs-2019-05-14/print

@STB65
Well thought out post on May 16 - I thank you!
@Mark
Your May 16 post is referenced to who and what post? thank you.

Suspect goverment regulations part of MassMutual problem
"Oppenheimer eventually swelled to some $230 billion in assets. In spite of that success, MassMutual put the firm on the sale block, reasoning that OppenheimerFunds would need a bigger investment than the insurer was willing to make to effectively compete in an industry facing long-term headwinds."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1ff53twv05b0n/Why-MassMutual-Chose-to-Sell-Oppenheimer-Funds

A $63 billion behemoth, the VNQ fund from Vanguard is one of the most popular ways to invest in real estate via a brokerage account or retirement plan. The portfolio spans all manner of companies that own properties, ranging from health care facilities to hotels to malls. There are about 200 component stocks that make up this real estate ETF. That's a very diversified list and at a relatively cheap fee structure at just 0.12% annually in expenses. You'll only pay about $12 per year on every $10,000 invested.

The average 401(k) employee contribution in the first quarter of the year reached a record $2,370, a 15% increase from a year earlier. The average match was $1,780, a 6% increase from one year earlier.

@Derf @hank
If one plucked down "x" dollars, buy and hold on Oct. 30, 2007; the below percentages are total return for the period through May 16, 2019.
Same chart layout as last post, but with a start date of Oct. 30, 2007; which is very close to multiple equity market tops before the big melt of Sept., 2008.
Total returns for this period, buy and hold.
--- QQQ = 278%
--- FSPHX = 276%
--- FDGRX = 228%
--- VPMCX = 198%
--- FCNTX = 168%
--- SPY = 138%
Another observation. Same funds chart, but from Oct. 30, 2007 to Jan. 2013.
Imagine an investor deciding to invest $100,00 on Oct. 30, 2007, and vowed to be brave and bold enough to ride the equity markets through 2020, when some of the money would aid in retirement.
They sweat a bit as they find their portfolio value dip going into the end of 2007. But, about half way into 2008, things are looking better. Then early September tests their braveness, to be further tested into the end of the year and the spring of 2009. Going into the end of March, 2009, the worst appears to be past. The equity markets move along and slightly upward through the rest of 2009, 2010 and then the middle of 2011 finds another portfolio whack as the credit rating of the U.S. is downgraded. Eventually, a bit more positive travel for the remainder of 2011 and 2012.
However, take a peek at the returns after a little more than 5 years.
I suspect these are the types of experiences that find folks leaving equity investing and not returning.
Five years can be a very long time to watch one's money travel such a path.
Chart here
Have a good remainder,
Catch

FYI: Tariff headlines have taken a front seat in the past couple of weeks leading stocks to see their worst declines of the year. Not surprisingly, sentiment has begun to reflect price action. One week after coming in at its highest level since October (around the time the S&P 500 hit its previous all-time high), bullish sentiment has fallen off of a cliff this week to 29.82% versus 43.12% last week. From a historical perspective, this is not at any kind of extreme, but it did bring optimism to its lowest level of 2019 and by a pretty wide margin at that. Additionally, this was the largest drop in bullish sentiment since December 13th of last year when it fell 17.04% in a week
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/back-to-bearish
AAII Website Investor Sentiment Survey:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey

Re: Buying down - I’ve done this before. It’s always a big gamble. Worked to an extent in the ‘07-‘09 slide. The biggest mistake was to start averaging back out of the riskier stuff on the way up as early as I did. But, overall, it worked this time around. I did this again during the energy rout 3 or 4 years back. Stomach wrenching to keep buying into that bottomless pit as oil fell from over $100 to $26. Did OK in the end. But not worth the agony.
Would I do it (buy down) again? No. Does it work every time? No. Full stock market recovery from the ‘29-‘33 debacle took many years (plus a world war). Japan’s market still isn’t back to where it was in the late 90s. Buying down shouldn’t be confused with rebalancing. As long as there’s a methodology behind it (ie twice yearly) rebalancing is a good idea. Does tend to make you sell high and buy low.
This post was edited for brevity.

@hank
Chart per Derf's statement of: " I be interested in knowing what the % of rise from just before The market started to TANK !!"
To the dentist, but will do another chart later.
AND YES, October 2007 was the general high prior to the melt.
Our personal portfolios combined obtained their highest dollar value on Halloween of 2007. October 31.

Yes, I think that @Derf's point is a good one. If the idea is to consider market behavior over a longish period of time ("Average 401k soared 466% over past 10 yrs") why would you deliberately start from a cyclical low?

@Catch, Why did you start in August 2008? The market peaked 10 months earlier in October 2007 with the S&P near 1600. https://bullmarkets.co/u-s-stock-market-history-for-2007/
I think @Derf was wondering how 401K balances might have fared from that point to today - rather than the skewed numbers Fidelity used (starting at the bottom of the market cycle).
However, adding the returns you cite for 6 funds and dividing by 6 gets an average gain of +249% - just a tad higher than my earlier crude estimate. If you backtrack those to October 2007 it should be pretty close. Thanks for the work.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/16/cashin-since-sell-off-trumps-taken-less-aggressive-posture-in-trade-talks.html?&qsearchterm=Art Cashin

We enjoyed our best webinar day yet with about 50 participants.
I actually wore a tie (ha!) and displayed our new MFO Coffee Mug (thank you David) to mark the progress we’ve made on the site.
Can’t thank you enough for your continued support!
Please find link to charts here.
Please find link to conference video here.
Feel free to reach-out at any time with questions and suggestions via email: [email protected]. We can even schedule a Zoom teleconference at your convenience.
c

The Best ETFs to Invest in Real Estate
https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-etfs-to-invest-in-real-estate
Investors are drawn to real estate investments for different reasons. For some, the investments offer big yield potential as properties generate a steady stream of income for shareholders. For others, real estate assets are a hedge against volatility.
When it comes to real estate stocks, more seem to be popping up every day. Whether you're investing in mortgage lenders or industrial park operators or various real estate investment trusts, there are many options out there to sort through.
If you're having trouble choosing which individual real estate stock to buy, or if you simply prefer the peace of mind that come with diversification, consider these real estate exchange-traded funds instead.
1. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (ticker: VNQ). A $63 billion behemoth, the VNQ fund from Vanguard is one of the most popular ways to invest in real estate via a brokerage account or retirement plan. The portfolio spans all manner of companies that own properties, ranging from health care facilities to hotels to malls.
There are about 200 component stocks that make up this real estate ETF. That's a very diversified list and at a relatively cheap fee structure at just 0.12% annually in expenses. You'll only pay about $12 per year on every $10,000 invested.
2. Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH). A slightly smaller list of real estate companies makes up the SCHH fund from Schwab, with just under 110 components in this ETF at present and about $5 billion in total assets under management. The fees are a bit smaller too, however, with an expense ratio of just 0.07% annually or $7 each year on every $10,000 you invest. The holdings are big REITs you should know, including mall operator Simon Property Group (SPG) and orange locker operator Public Storage (PSA). – Jeff Reeves

Reviewing chart activity just before the big melt in Sept., 2008 and related to @Derf and the question of "just before" the sell off; I've placed a few investments in the below linked chart. And @hank for your review.
For the most part the overall U.S. equity sectors were flat for July and August of 2008; and the logic for the starting point.
From the chart, I will place the rounded total return values; and to note that these numbers reflect a buy and hold with whatever dollar amount was invested on Aug. 13, 2008. These numbers include distributions (dividends, cap. gains).
--- QQQ = 319%
--- FSPHX = 314%
--- FDGRX = 272%
--- VPMCX = 214%
--- FCNTX = 203%
--- SPY = 174%
A few selected, widely held funds chart Aug. 12, 2008 to date

This 466% number includes the additional contributions people have made into these plans over the past decade. Without that inclusion the gains in value would have been lower. I’m wondering, too, if it includes self-directed 401Ks which provide a tax haven to the very rich and have much higher contribution limits. These would have grown disproportionately to the 401Ks most wage earners have. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jrose/2018/07/17/the-1-account-all-wealthy-people-have-that-you-probably-dont/
I think more needs to be done here to try and differentiate how much of this increased wealth went to the small investor (typically working a 9-5 shift) and how much of it actually reflects gains at the upper end of the income level (perhaps the top 10 or 20% of the population). I fear digging deeper might only serve to demonstrate the growing wealth disparity among the population over the past decade.
All that said ... the domestic equity markets are up something like 300-400% since the bottom almost exactly 10 years ago, March 9, 2009. (Seems to me the DJI got close to 6500.) So, assuming all participants remained 100% in equities in their 401 K plans, the numbers have a semblance of reality. I doubt that’s the case however. Most diversify. Some borrow from plans. Some types of investments lag the S&P, etc.
-
@Derf - Good question. Here’s some crude calculations (from a non-math guy): Broad U.S equity markets fell around 50% during the bear market (‘07-‘09). So I’ll start by cutting in half a $100 401K balance. That leaves $50 by the time the bear ended. Than I’ll multiply the remaining balance by 466% to reflect its growth over the next decade. That results in a gain of 233% on the original investment (including new contributions) from just before the crash to roughly the present (a 12 year period). The resultant average gain in value is 19%.( But with compounding factored in it would be less.)

FYI: When insurance company MassMutual spent $150 million to acquire OppenheimerFunds almost 30 years ago, it could not have known how stunningly successful the investment would turn out to be. Now it’s on the verge of executing another transaction — one that reflects the more difficult reality that asset managers are facing today.
Regards,
Ted

Yes, that too, ty, but it is important to understand the evolving and challenging nature of comparative advantage, and first to understand comparative advantage in the first place, which is tricky, to fully assess all of these issues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
Especially today, as everything is more complex and interrelated than cloth and wine.
@Lawlar's paragraph is simplistic, unfortunately. The calculus of cheap flatscreens and smartphone for all vs damaged families is immensely complex.
This does not exactly address that, being more about FDI (foreign direct investment) than trade as commonly bruited today by the "president", but is interesting for the weedy, a Q&A on China-US relations from a year ago, I think. ICAS-biased, obvs.

Pertinent among other things about the idiocy of win-loss positing.
@Lawlar, the point about FDI added value at around 12-13' might interest you. It is not as onesided as you appear to believe. USA, USA!
IPR violation at ~17'.
Here's the teaser for one of the courses in this area, from 3y ago, but much has changed in the gaseous-sphere, clearly; this was before the last election:
(sorry, not posting right:
put https:// before this, or not
vimeo.com/153105920

I include it in all of its bogo-drama only because it highlights the issues that need to be delved.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246436-drops-buy-revisited
The More It Drops, The More I Buy - Revisited
Mar. 6, 2019 9:00 AM ETAMZN, BDC...174 Comments115 Likes
Summary
Once again, REITs recovered the majority of their losses after a painful end of the year 2018.
Historical data suggest that REITs will keep outperformance even in times of increasing interest rates.
Fundamentals are strong today with REITs enjoying solid NOI growth and historically strong balance sheets.
We share 3 Top Holdings of our “Core Portfolio" at High Yield Landlord.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, High Yield Landlord.

@Catch22- Well, he's been busy here, for one thing:
Trump declares national emergency over telecom threats
"The order, which has been under review for more than a year, is aimed at protecting the supply chain from “foreign adversaries to the nation’s information and communications technology and services supply chain”, said the commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, Americans will be able to trust that our data and infrastructure are secure,” he said."