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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    From the same source, stockchart, I think this(link) maybe be easier but only allows 5 funds. The easy part is by letting you select the period easily. You have one month and all the way using start/end dates.
    The best IMO is PortfolioVis. It has many more choices and you can see SD, max draw, Sharpe, Sortino and more but allow you only 4 funds. See (link) for BBN,GWMEX,TSIIX,ANBEX for 3 years. It shows how BBN SD=12 is 2-3 times higher than the others
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    I guess we’re playing with semantics here.
    “Fabricated” = “completely made up. An investigation will follow.” Geez, I don’t think so.
    We had one last winter. You saw where that went.
    “Cooked” = “distorted, exaggerated, shaded, tilted, incomplete, compromised and unreliable.” Yes. The government’s been doing that for years with the numbers. Cost of living is a great example.
    Whether you believe the numbers or consider them wholly fabricated, the S&P is now up over 40% since late March. So the numbers today helped put $$ In the pockets of investors. The numbers might be as phony as a $1,000 bill. But if you pass a phony $1,000 bill and get away with it (putting morals aside), you still keep the goodies.
    image
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Howdy folks,
    Really?!? After the CPI dropped due to energy savings that no one could enjoy while facing over a 16% rise in the price of food . . . you're not a bit suspicious of these numbers.
    Pat Heller from Liberty Coin reposted that pre South Bay Research estimates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted 9.7 Million unemployed from todays' report for the following reasons: 4 million were dropped because the BLS revised its methodology since last month for counting the unemployed, 3.7 million because the BLS considers that many unemployment claims were fraudulent and 2 million were because of something they called the 'run rate'.
    BTW, Mohammad admitted last night that he's not in the market at all. I'm presuming equities.
    and so it goes,
    GASLIGHT CITY . . .
    rono
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    IMO, market moved up too far. too fast I don't really care. It seems like dot com days. You can fart in a bottle, hold it up and say "cloud" and your stock goes up. Meanwhile, I read this.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-06-05/nfp-jobs-data-manipulated-all-paid-ppp-loans
    I've been earning good income on options for 2 months. I'm worried I'm getting addicted to it. I think I can make 10-12% this way, so I'm not rushing in and buying any more funds at this time. I own PRWCX and RPGAX in my MIL's account and am happy with both of them. If GMO is to be believed, then RPGAX should catch up with its higher allocation to international holdings.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    @FD1000: "...D&C is [one of the worst managers of all time]...". Oh my goodness. Really; what does one do with that?
  • You should be nervous!’—legendary money manager slashes stock market exposure from 55% to 25%
    You should be nervous!’—legendary money manager slashes stock market exposure from 55% to 25%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-should-be-nervouslegendary-money-manager-slashes-stock-market-exposure-from-55-to-25-2020-06-05
    /As investors we should always get nervous when we start making too much money too easily. As a foolish youth I once ignored that rule while speculating on interest rate futures, and got my fingers slammed in the door very quickly and very hard./
    Do you agree with his views....
    Maybe it's a v shape after all
    Maybe it's a great day to bail if I am 6 12 months from retirement
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    Here's what I can share from owning ZVNBX, one of the two Zevenbergen funds -- the other N class being ZVGNX.
    The fund managers are very focused and articulate about their reasons for owning a concentrated portfolio of two large cap growth funds, the outcome of running separate managed accounts for 30 and 26 years in these products.
    In general, the main difference between ZVNBX and ZVGNX (Genea) is that the latter is focused on founder-led companies (Musk, Bezos), does not own any health care companies, and is invested in more companies that are, let's say, very early in the curve.
    Some nuts and bolts:
    From a revenue side, their initial hurdle rate is owning companies that have a minimum growth rate of 15% but a revenue growth rate of between 25-30%, and if they can't grow at that rate, they consider selling. They want to own companies whose business model can sustain that growth rate for 1-3-5-10 years, those companies they consider durable.
    (An example of a company they own is NOW (Service NOW), a tech company. It recently said that they expect $7.4T in digital transformation in the next three years.)
    These funds can be volatile, and so investor returns lag investment returns, which they often do in many funds, as most of us know. Overall, however, they have had positive inflows since inception.
    The average portfolio turnover since inception has been 30%.
    Platform availability continues to expand. Having two LCG funds has not been as easy to market, and the firm has a small marketing budget. In mid-April total AUM was about $65M despite being in existence for less than 5 years. It's $95M now.
    Schwab offers both N classes NTF for a purchase of $100.
    While M* classifies the funds as LCG, they consider the funds all-cap. They can drive attribution in the small and mid cap space as well.
    These offerings are worth investor awareness, additional thoughts, and what the initial poster is asking.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    One of the most infallible and rare momentum indicator is triggered and says stocks will be much higher six months down the road. Wish I had posted this yesterday as the indicator kicked in close of Wednesday. But I couldn’t believe my data and called a technical market guru yesterday to see if my data was correct. He said yep, the indicator sure did kick in. Anyway Marty Zweig’s ten day advance/decline ratio greater than 2 to 1 kicked in.
    The way you compute this as shown in Marty’s book Winning On Wall Street is simply take the total 10 day NYSE advances and the total 10 day declines. Whenever that is greater than 2 to 1 you have a momentum buy thrust. You wouldn’t think this that rare but in his updated book you only had 11 instances of this occurring between 1953 and 1996. In all 11 instances the market was higher six months later and by an average of 15.2%.
    Since the book and since the last signal listed in the book we have had two additional signals. March 2009 and as I discussed previously last year, January 2019. Those six months gains were higher than 15.2%. Unfortunately this indicator has been bastardized a bit by a computer formula and that formula shows another two signals. But when I went back and checked those signals did not qualify as described by Marty.
    Marty’s double 9 to 1 up volume/ down volume indicator kicked in one day after the recent March low. I was surprised to see this other indicator kick in after an already 40% rise in the markets. Like everyone else I have never seen a market so detached from economic realty. So will be interesting if we keep marching higher for yet another 6 months or this time around the indicator fails. I have always been a disbeliever in traditional technical analysis and its associated mumbo jumbo. Yet always had the utmost respect and fully utilized Marty’s two momentum indicators most especially his up/down volume indicator.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Rbrt
    I use this link to bring up a growth of $10K chart for an OEF, then add whatever fund (OEF or CEF or ETF) or stock to the chart and it will show you growth of said security, assuming distributions reinvested. Used to be easy to do at Morningstar, as you pulled up an OEF’s chart, and then added tickers, but since they changed the site, you have to use a link similar to this that links to the old chart tool.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=PIMIX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    You could purchase one of the Zevenbergen Funds (Growth or Genea) investor class for $2,500.00 which is the same for the "A" class of Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Growth Fund minus the load (maybe different if using a brokerage). Both Growth and Genea are large cap growth funds.
    While the funds, e.g. SAGAX and ZVNBX, appear to be clones, there are small differences. The Virtus version is an order of magnitude as large, though still small: $504M vs. $46M. The holdings are slightly different, even in their top ten. The Virtus version has higher turnover (91% vs. 29%), while sporting a slightly lower ER (1.25% vs. 1.30%). I find that somewhat surprising, since submanaged funds typically add a layer of cost.
    (Vanguard funds being an exception since Vanguard drives a hard bargain with money mangers, e.g. Vanguard Primecap Core (VPCCX) at 0.46% vs Primecap Odyssey (POSKX) at 0.65%)
    Given the very growthy nature of the Zevenbergen funds and their highly concentrated portfolios (33-35 stocks), I agree that these are high octane funds. Looking at SAGAX's 2008-2010 performance (see chart) it is clear that this is an aggressive fund that can suffer big (over 50%) losses that are greater than those of its peers.
    Where I might part company with Skeet is in calling this a momentum fund. Momentum funds typically have high turnover. It's hard to see a 29% turnover fund following a momentum strategy.
  • (RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds
    What next to replace bonds?
    Yes, please respond to @Sven.
    I find it encouraging that the 10-year Treasury is over .90% this morning after dipping below .50% briefly in March-April. My understanding of the rate curve is quite limited, but I’d expect returns on very short term investment grade bonds will start improving if this trend continues. So, for those needing to “park” money short-term or wishing to pull risk off the table, it’s a healthy development.
    Ed, in last month’s Commentary, referenced using a “barbell“ investment approach. Never been my cup of tea, but with cash yielding so little it also makes sense to me. With a barbell (my crude understanding) an investor loads up on both ends. On one end are riskier assets like equities and on the other end are investment grade securities with the duration to be set by the investor. Personally, I’ve favored the 3-10 year duration bond funds, but have some limited spec positions (thru RPSIX) on the conservative end of the barbell as well.
    If using the barbell, one may exit low yielding cash positions and assume that should the risk assets fall, some increase in value at the conservative (bond end) will mitigate the damage.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    More data from NPR. Looks like these number reflect workers who were furloughed as their business closed down temporarily. Now the business are opening back up. Let's hope this does not trigger a second wave of COVID infection.
    https://npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/05/869821293/as-america-struggles-to-return-to-work-staggering-unemployment-numbers-loom
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Sold my relatively short-term Airbus position at a surprisingly nice profit @ the open today. It's been on a tear in recent days but I've been having second thoughts about the position (which I doubled just before Covid hit) and had placed a resting order to close it out at breakeven ... but it opened nearly $1 higher than my sell order, so I'll take it. Which means it'll probably skyrocket higher. :)
    On the upside, patience pays off. As with some other positions I've closed in recent days, I was tempted to close it out earlier for a minor loss, but let it ride for a while longer and got out at break-even or better. #InvestingAndTradingLessonsHardLearned
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Poor Mohammad El-Erian - just one of a parade of gloomy morose prognosticators Bloomberg has frequently featured on air over the past two or three months. Not to pick on just El-Erian, Larry Summers is another gloomy predictor they’ve rolled out since the market encountered a downdraft in March. Here’s El-Erian in April .
    Hilarious watching El-Erian try to do some sort of mid-course correction this morning after the hot (warmer?) data came out. Sounds like he’s pushing short / intermediate investment grade corporates at this point. Points to the dangers of trying to base long term investment decisions on these types of pronouncements. Truth is: Nobody knows where the global economy will be in a year - let alone 5 or 10 years. If you can’t have a 5-10 year time horizon, you shouldn’t be in equities & most risk assets at all.
    Purely local and anecdotal - but in northern Mi it’s almost impossible getting construction / remodeling done this summer. Builders are backed up for months. I suspect a lot of money that would have gone to the airlines and hospitality businesses this summer is being pumped into home improvement projects instead. Tourism locally is down, but improving. Big box stores are crowded. Waited half an hour in a check-out line this week.
    Link to May Jobs Report Story:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-fell-in-may-as-hiring-rebounded
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    You could purchase one of the Zevenbergen Funds (Growth or Genea) investor class for $2,500.00 which is the same for the "A" class of Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Growth Fund minus the load (maybe different if using a brokerage). Both Growth and Genea are large cap growth funds.
    https://www.zci.com/ (Zevenbergen's website)
    Zevenbergen Genea Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=zvgnx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Zevenbergen Growth Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=zvnbx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=sagax&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Zevenbergen's prospectus as of 10/31/19:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261788/000089418919007092/zevenbergencombined.htm
    Schwab requires an initial minimum of $5K for a regular account for Virtus Zevenbergen Innovation Fund with a load; $100.00 initial minimum investment for the Zevenbergen Funds.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    Giroux is one of the best managers of all time.
    Dodge & Cox just the opposite.
    @FD1000: Yes - Geroux has proven his worth. BTW - I’ve owned PRWCX since the 90s. Rarely mention it. It’s been a popular favorite here for at least the past decade.
    I’m glad you don’t invest with Dodge and Cox. They attract an older, more mature and stable lot of investors. The managers themselves hold for very long periods. Those who trade frequently (as you seem to do) are anathema to the type of investor who owns their funds. Large inflows / outflows can detract from fund performance. (So, stay away.) :)
  • Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
    One of colleague at work got up to 10% Portfolio in PM both equities and hard assets
    https://www.apmex.com/
    Is the website that he recommended to buy physical bullions or texasmetal
  • Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
    Howdy folks,
    Thanks johnN. Kitco is the primary site for all things precious metals. That's where the miners are listed. Right now, I'm riding SGLDX and PRPFX taxable. In my deferred acct, I'm on CEF, SLV, SILJ, GDXJ for ETFs. Note that I only have CEF and SLV for giggles as they're bullion ETFs and rono does NOT trust most of them. My CEF above is Sprott and they actually audit their holdings. Most of the other paper products double and triple count the actual bullion in vaults. It's mostly legal and not really a conspiracy but just something that any good investor with the ability to impact the market is wont to do.
    For giggles and serious nosebleed volatility I'm holding ISVLF, KOOYF, and TKRFF.
    https://www.kitco.com/stocks/ gold stocks
    and my favorite place to play in the whole wide world:
    http://www.kitcosilver.com/equities.html
    Which speaks to why I prefer playing silver to gold and miners to bullion. Leverage. In the Hunt Bros market, gold went up 2-3x while silver went up 10x. Right now the gold/silver ratio is around 100 or so when historically it was 17 to 1. That's way too low for today but 100 is a tad too high. One way to play this is to buy in the same ratio as the ratio. For example, at this 1 to 100 ratio, for every ounce of gold you buy 100 oz. of silver. When the g/s ratio changes so does your buying. As for the miners, geez folks, the bullion market is so incredibly fiddled with on top of the ETF impact, I really don't much care for it. I was never one for paper gold, but today . . . paper bullion is like looking into a can of worms. If you want easy physical, you can hide a tube of American Gold Eagles in a Oatmeal box. It's the size of a quarter and maybe 2" tall. An AGE would cost about $1800 each so a tube is worth ~$36K. Or bling - for you, the spouse, the dog. feh. Easy.
    The miners track the price of bullion BUT they also are in a completely different market. Most of your precious metal mutual funds contain ONLY mining stocks and little if no bullion.
    BTW, I'm probably at somewhere between 2 and 3 units long PMs.
    and so it goes,
    peace, and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    What’s curious, I think, is how wrapped up in this market turmoil Geroux admits to being at the time. Recall that there were a number of 1,000-point up / down days for the DJI in March. But the down days were stunning in severity and across many sectors. Not only equities. Gold and miners, in particular, suffered a cardiac on several days. Oil fell by $15-20 in about a week’s time. In short, everything was in turmoil.
    As one lone investor traveling at the time and often making buy / sell transactions using a cellular phone, I couldn’t perform the due diligence such transactions normally entail. Instead, it became a case of: “buy now because it looks cheap / make sense of it all later.”
    So if you were managing money at the time, be it only a modest sum parked in an IRA or billions as Giroux is responsible for, it was a hectic period.