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BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019

edited November 2019 in Fund Discussions
Will touch on 4 podcasts from 7-26-19 to 10-29-19 - Asbury, John Hancock, Jeff Gundlach and Fido.

Asbury (7-26) mid caps in......no large growth is in.....market looks good into the fall. Healthcare equipment is a buy. Healthcare has legs, 10yr could go to 2.50%. Inversion must last 3 months and you have a year before a recession.

Hancock (9-17) ......growth is slowing. Look for Fed cuts. Large and mid caps are in. Only buy quality tech, health, staples----only quality.....no overseas bonds....quality only. 10yr could go to 0.75% in next recession. No banks or small caps. 10yr at 1.80% is a buy.

Gundlach (10-16) ..... negative bonds 97% owned by governments or pension funds. EM down 20% since 2018. No banks; US is expensive. Dollar will weaken growth. US is all about debt. 2020 is not looking good. Will see QE before we have next recession. Time to sell some things.

Fido (10-29) ..... when ECB and US cut rates at same time, 71% chance things rise. 41 global cuts this year. Will take 9 months for it to kick in. Buy financials, industrials....healthcare is a value trap. Buy tech and energy. The Fed will let inflation run hot since we had to wait so long to get some.

God bless
the Pudd

Comments

  • Hi guys,
    Have been doing some buying this month. Have added AEDVX. It's a mad money position. Just want to beat MM. Also have bought FAMEX. It's my last mid cap fund.....that makes 5......no more. Opened a position in FIFNX. It's a new fund. I like what it is, and its list of companies it owns. Also opened new position in FNSTX. Again, another new fund. Opened a position in PGTAX after watching FrontLine.....Season 2019, Episode 5, November 5th ....AI program had to get some. If you have time, watch it. Scarey......
    Also added YCGEX. Also have added some money to funds I already own. I believe we're going higher.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited November 2019
    Nice thread ... Let's keep it going by making comment.

    For me, now retired, I have been investing in fixed income more so than on the equity side of my portfolio as I am in the distribution phase of investing. Two fixed income funds that I recenetly added to are JGIAX and BLADX. I've got a CD that matures at the first part of December and may roll that money into a government money market mutual fund such as GOFXX to maintain liqudity rather than locking it up in a time deposit such as a CD.

    I've also got some sizeable capital gain distributions coming in December that will be paid by a good number of my equity mutual funds. Most likely, I'll reposition this money by splitting it between the fixed income side and equity side of my portfolio into funds that can increase my income stream and also allow for some capital appreciation over time. In addition, I may hold some cash back while I await a stock market pullback and add it to my cash spiff position.

    My add to list consist of the following funds. They are on the fixed income side AZNAX, BLADX, CTFAX, JGIAX and on the equity side DWGAX, INUTX and KAUAX. For my next equity spiff (special investment position) I've been thinking of using EAALX over VADAX.

    Also know, I plan to govern in a way that maintains my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
  • @Old_Skeet: Do you have a set % that an income fund can have in equities before you would move it to another sleeve or turn it loose ?
    Thanks for your time, Derf
  • Hi Skeeter,
    Good to hear from you. Your funds are always things I have to look up because I've never seen them before.....lol. Just goes to show you how different people are, and that's a good thing. On your AA funds, I'm curious.....do you own VWINX? If not, why? I also own more than I fund in this space....BTBFX. I think of it as a barbell approach.

    As for JGIAX, I have been running more quality bond funds except for PONAX. I'm not sure what's in their black box. DUGAX---have been staying away from EM due to the Blonde One's temper tantrums on trade. Do have 2 on a short buy list though: FEMKX and NGCAX. We'll see......
    As for VADAX -- why not just use the S&P? Just curious.....

    Now, for the big one, KAuAX......I forgot all about this one. Owned it in my 401 years ago before it got cut from the plan. This is one I should have....somebody may have to go in this space. I'm overloaded. BTMFX, CIPMX, FAMEX, PARMX, UMBMX. As you know, my soft spot is mid's. They are the teenagers with promise. Also I worked for a mid cap company.....great leadership and a family culture. It was great.

    God bless
    the Pudd

    p.s. And what are you doing up at 3:00am????
  • @Puddnhead: Not O_S, but fwiw pee call !
    Derf
  • edited November 2019
    Hi @Derf,

    Thank you for your question concerning how much equity a fund can hold and be considered a holding for the income area of the portfolio. There are two income sleeves. One is the income sleeve and the other is the hybrid income sleeve.

    Generaly the income sleeve can hold up to 15% equity with no one fund within the sleeve holding more than what is allowed for a 15% to 30% asset allocation fund. The hybrid income sleeve can hold asset allocation funds that are of the 30% to 50% equity type. Some exceptions may apply.

    Any asset allocation fund that holds more than 50% in equity goes on the equity side of the portfolio and is held in the growth & income area of the portfolio in either the domestic hybrid sleeve or the global hybrid sleeve.
  • edited November 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,

    In answering your question(s). I got up early this morning to read the proof edition of the Observer. Just kidding. I'm diabetic and I was up for my early morning snack which I do most mornings around 3:00 am.

    As for VWINX ... There are many good income allocation funds. I can not own them all plus if I were to own VWINX I'd have to hold it in a wrap account, with my broker, since it is a no load fund. To keep things simple and still receive a consodilated IRS 1099 Form I have one single taxable account as many funds I own came to me through both gift and inheritance. In a good number of cases I can buy in this account at nav or reduced sales charges as there are several generations of compounding that have taken place in some of these holdings dating back to my great grandfather.

    When, I can't buy at reduced sales charges (or at nav) I simply pay the commission as there are no charges what-so-ever charged to me by the broker as long as it holds A or C share funds. And, the commisions I do pay are very small in size relative to the size of this account.

    KAUAX is one of my favorite funds. Although it is classified as a mid cap growth fund it fills all the style boxes plus it will hold cash if it can not find good opportunity. The last time I looked it was holding better than 20% in cash. Plus, it usually pays a sizeable capital gain distribution each year; and, being retired that's cash in my pocket. To me that's just as good as an income fund.

    Thanks again for taking over the thread a few years back that was started by Scott and which I ran for a few years. Now, its future lies with you. Back then it was titled "Buy, Sell or Ponder." You and Duke are doing a great job. I've been watching and it draws a good readership.

    And ... May God Bless ... you as well!

    Skeet



  • I am building positions in VWIAX-Wellesly, VMNVX-VangGlobLowVol & BAFWX-BrownAdvSusGrowth. I am 15 months away from retirement at the age of 65, slowly selling high SD funds.
  • Old_Skeet said:

    Nice thread ... Let's keep it going by making comment.

    For me, now retired, I have been investing in fixed income more so than on the equity side of my portfolio as I am in the distribution phase of investing. Two fixed income funds that I recenetly added to are JGIAX and BLADX. I've got a CD that matures at the first part of December and may roll that money into a government money market mutual fund such as GOFXX to maintain liqudity rather than locking it up in a time deposit such as a CD.

    I've also got some sizeable capital gain distributions coming in December that will be paid by a good number of my equity mutual funds. Most likely, I'll reposition this money by splitting it between the fixed income side and equity side of my portfolio into funds that can increase my income stream and also allow for some capital appreciation over time. In addition, I may hold some cash back while I await a stock market pullback and add it to my cash spiff position.

    My add to list consist of the following funds. They are on the fixed income side AZNAX, BLADX, CTFAX, JGIAX and on the equity side DWGAX, INUTX and KAUAX. For my next equity spiff (special investment position) I've been thinking of using EAALX over VADAX.

    Also know, I plan to govern in a way that maintains my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.

    I love your posts Skeet, but damn, why do you own so many funds? You have overlap galore. In hindsight, do you think you think you would have been fine with VTSAX and end it?
  • Kings53man,
    Yeah, I'm big on Wellesley. It's by far my largest holding, so I like this. Are you going with 3 funds or are these just your core? The reason I ask is bonds....
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,

    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.

    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.

    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.

    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019

    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.

    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth

    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings

    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX

    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX

    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.

    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.



  • Good heavens, Skeet. That is the most whimsically elaborate mechanism to achieve a relatively simple objective I have ever seen. How on Earth do you keep track of it all?

    Still, I love your style and wish you all the very best!
  • Hi @Simon, I was a former corporate credit manager. Oversight on the portfolio is a piece of cake compaired to what I was employeed full time to do. I'm now retired.
  • edited November 2019
    Simon said:

    Good heavens, Skeet. That is the most whimsically elaborate mechanism to achieve a relatively simple objective I have ever seen ...

    Perhaps not. Take a look at this alarm clock.

    image

  • Great illustration hank. Goes to show even the over complicated can be peacefull if you have a handle on things.
  • edited November 2019
    Hi @hank,

    Replace the dog with a cat and you've got it! Our family cat awakes me around 3:00 am each morning and will nag me until I get up. He got in the habit of doing this because years back I'd get up around 3:00 am each morning to check the foreign markets before leaving for work. Generally, I was in bed around 8:00 pm. He's still with the old routine.

    Skeet
  • Old_Skeet said:

    Hi @Starchild,

    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.

    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.

    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.

    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019

    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.

    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth

    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings

    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX

    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX

    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.

    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.



    Well ok then Skeet!
  • @Old_Skeet: Thank heavens! I thought I was the only nut who checked Asian markets early in the AM (despite thinking of myself as a long-term investor). Our dog sometimes wakes me way too early in my case.
  • BenWP said:

    @Old_Skeet: Thank heavens! I thought I was the only nut who checked Asian markets early in the AM (despite thinking of myself as a long-term investor). Our dog sometimes wakes me way too early in my case.

    @old_skeet should tally up all the fees he's paying for all these funds while he's at it.
  • edited November 2019
    @ Starchild. My expense ratio = 0.78% according to M* portfolio manager. That is less than the fee based account offered by my broker. With the fee based account, I'd be paying 1% plus what the fund company's charge to hold etf's and no load funds. With this, I plan continue to roll as is. Plus, I'd have a sizeable tax bill to pay if I sold assets to change over and go the fee based route. The numbers work best, for me, to stay as is.
  • OS, I think @Starchild's point may be that all those funds likely are equivalent to an all encompassing index fund or 2 or 3. But, what fun would that be. Your system is your hobby and it sounds like it works great for you.
  • edited November 2019
    Not sure if we're only supposed to mention OEF/CEFs in this thread or not, but I added CSCO to multiple accounts (both my long-long-term account and my 'personal' account) and the REIT OPI to my personal account.
  • Pudd, Last year I saw how volatile Primcap Odyssey funds are in Sep-Dec quarter so I sold all of them when they showed a bit of recovery - POAGX, POGRX & POSKX - in 2019. I started moving to the 3 funds with the plan to be reach to 10% allocation. They will be my core funds. I do have others. I am still thinking we will see negative bonds rate and I don't know how to invest in when time comes so VWINX is the way to go for me at this time. Thanks!!!
    Puddnhead said:

    Kings53man,
    Yeah, I'm big on Wellesley. It's by far my largest holding, so I like this. Are you going with 3 funds or are these just your core? The reason I ask is bonds....
    God bless
    the Pudd


  • Added a big slug to PRBLX in my Roth IRA now that CGs are paid out for the year.
  • rforno said:


    Added a big slug to PRBLX in my Roth IRA now that CGs are paid out for the year.

    Nicely timed. Nice price too.

    If anyone is interested in buying the AMG Yacktman funds with a similar strategy note that they are paying capital gains 10-14 days earlier than normal this year. The ex and payable date is Dec 16. The NAV of YAFFX, for example, is estimated to drop 11.8% - 14.4% on that day.
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