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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money

    Josh is awesome - followed him and Barry for years. IMO their firm is doing things right and if I ever needed to pick up RIAs to manage money I'd probably go with them.
    This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
    " ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money
    This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
    " ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • ORNAX - load at Fidelity but waived at Merrill Edge
    A bit lower octane option within the family is OPTAX. A few less percentage in Puerto Rican bonds, a few years lower duration, lower Beta, lower Alpha, and lower Standard Deviation. Accordingly, the 3-month, YTD, 1-year, and 3-year total return for OPTAX trails ORNAX.
    Pick your medicine.
    Mona
    Mona in Fund Discussions
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money
    FYI: People ask me all the time about how I invest my personal money. I don’t think I’ve ever written about this before, in more than ten years of blogging!
    Very simply put, I’m a mixture of active and passive, a mixture of mutual funds, individual securities and ETFs, a mixture of public and private assets. What is consistent is that almost everything I do is with a long-term bias. I don’t day trade or swing trade, because I’m bad at it and I feel as though those activities are a full-time commitment. I don’t want to commit to any investing style that requires my attention all day long because I’m building and running a company. My priority is my firm, my clients and my employees. So when I invest in something, I usually intend to stay invested.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/10/10/how-i-invest-my-own-money-2/
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Even 2.5 to 3% on the 10 year in 2020 would be quite low by historic standards. I just don't see what might cause rates to move substantially further than that to the upside in the near future.
    davfor davfor in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Hi @Junkster
    I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
    Couple of items with this.
    Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
    Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
    There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
    1. machine trading
    2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
    3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
    4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
    5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
    6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
    Add to the list if you choose.
    Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
    The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
    My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
    Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
    10 yr German bond PRICE
    Pillow time here.
    Catch
    Can’t offer any special insights. If the crowd is right and this time it is different and rates are headed towards zero that will buoy bonds that offer a higher yield such as junk, non agencies, emerging markets, and more. I remarked the other day that from a contrarian point of view at some point over the next year rates will be higher on the 10 year in the 2,50 to 3% range. I hope that isn’t the case but it would not surprise me at all. Stocks would also be much higher and confound all those thinking a recession is at our doorsteps. You are thinking more based on fundamentals while I am thinking more based on sentiment and the counterintuitive nature of the markets.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • ORNAX - load at Fidelity but waived at Merrill Edge
    Load is waived at Fido now. No transaction fee either. May have a dabble with some spare cash, but have bonds run their course? (Just thinking out loud.)
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/00141W505
    Simon in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Hi @Junkster
    I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
    Couple of items with this.
    Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
    Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
    There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
    1. machine trading
    2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
    3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
    4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
    5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
    6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
    Add to the list if you choose.
    Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
    The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
    My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
    Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
    10 yr German bond PRICE
    Pillow time here.
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    The thing is, there are so many advisers in the world and there are even algorithms that now do this kind of work for a pittance. There is no reason anyone has to give their money to someone who thinks we're still living in the 1950s or in this case the 19th century. America wasn't "great" for more than half the population back then. The irony is fellow financial advisers go to these sorts of conferences for business advice to help attract clients etc. How stupid do you have to be to publicly act this way while promoting yourself as an adviser guru who is good at attracting new business? It's 2019.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Climb On Trump’s Plan To Meet With China Trade Negotiator
    FYI: U.S. stocks rallied Thursday after President Trump said he would meet with a key Chinese official for talks Friday, the latest example of trade hopes boosting global markets.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150points, or 0.57%, to 26496, after earlier climbing more than 250 points. The S&P 500 added 0.64%. The broad equity gauge entered the session down nearly 2% so far in October and roughly 3.5% below July’s record, though it was still up 16% for the year. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.60%.
    The gains came after Mr. Trump said on Twitter that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the head of the Chinese negotiating team, at the White House Friday, contradicting earlier media reports that Chinese leaders would be leaving Washington Thursday, a day earlier than expected.
    Thursday’s moves were the latest example of trade-induced volatility in markets. Global indexes and stock futures swung between gains and losses overnight on conflicting reports. Fears that the U.S. and China won’t reach a ceasefire on tariffs have led to projections that a global economic slowdown will ripple to consumers, denting spending and crimping corporate profits.
    Negotiations continued Thursday after the White House signed off on special licenses for some U.S. companies to do business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co., a possible sign of goodwill. At the same time, the U.S. adding 28 Chinese entities to an export blacklist earlier in the week also prompted caution among investors.
    Trade hopes also boosted commodities crucial to transportation and manufacturing by easing worries that softening demand will result in supply gluts. Both copper and oil rallied nearly 2%, trimming some of their recent losses.
    Earlier in the week, figures showed that prices businesses receive fell unexpectedly in September from the previous month.
    Treasury yields rose following the data Thursday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to 1.651%, according to Tradeweb, from 1.585% a day earlier. Yields have fallen in recent months as investors have sought safety in bonds.
    Among individual stocks, shares of Delta Air Lines slid 2% after the company’s quarterly results added to concerns about rising carrier costs. Third-quarter reporting season for large companies begins in earnest next week, with S&P 500 firms expected to post a drop in profits from a year earlier.
    Bed Bath & Beyond soared 21% after the struggling retailer tapped Target’s Mark Tritton as its next chief executive.
    And PG&E tumbled nearly 30% after the judge presiding over its bankruptcy handed shareholders a loss, opening the door to a competition over the best path out of bankruptcy that pits the troubled utility against bondholders led by Elliott Management Corp.
    Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.6%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-drift-lower-as-beijing-washington-tariff-talks-take-focus-2019-10-10/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-slip-as-concerns-about-trade-talks-mount-11570697193
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/asian-stocks-set-to-rise-on-trade-talk-optimism-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-moves-higher-as-trump-tweets-plan-for-trade-talks/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rises-on-hopes-of-u-s-china-trade-deal-idUSKBN1WP1QB
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/recharged-hopes-of-brexit-deal-trade-truce-power-uk-shares-idUKKBN1WP1QX
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-rise-on-brexit-trade-deal-hopes-lvmh-shines-idUSKBN1WP0ST
    Asia:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/asia-stocks-october-10-us-china-trade-talks-oil-currencies.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-as-investors-await-us-china-trade-talks.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/brexit-uk-and-irish-leaders-say-there-is-a-pathway-to-a-possible-deal.html
    Oil
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/oil-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/gold-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eEZe-93MuYc
    Spoke at a seminar with Jim Bianco in 1999 when he was just starting out. While economists have a much worst prediction record than stock market prognosticators I was always impressed with Jim’s acumen. He always seemed wise beyond his years. In the clip from two days ago he was firmly in the this time it is different camp (who isn’t) and low rates are here to stay. I hope he is right for many reasons but getting real uncomfortable with the rates have nowhere to go but down scenario. Eleven months ago everyone was in the camp rates had nowhere to go but up. What a difference a year makes, If I can remember will revisit this topic same time next year.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    There are three recent changes at Vanguard that I'm aware of. For the reasons I describe below, I tend to view them as "non-events". Are these what you had in mind, or are there other changes that lead you to feel that Vanguard is making it more difficult to do business with them outside of Vanguard funds/ETFs?
    Vanguard stopped selling explicitly leveraged (2x, 3x, etc.) and inverse ETFs last January. Since those funds almost have to be traded frequently, Vanguard never was a good platform for someone investing in these particular ETFs.
    Vanguard recently terminated its cash management features. Very few of their customers were using these features anyway. One had to be a Voyager Select ($500K+ in Vanguard funds) to even have access to these features. Then Vanguard was still charging customers $30/year unless they had at least $1M invested in Vanguard funds. Little wonder almost no one used these services.
    Vanguard is about to transfer the servicing of the Vanguard Variable Annuity to Transamerica. Your comment has to do with Vanguard making it difficult to buy non-Vanguard funds. Since the VA is made up of Vanguard funds, it's not the kind of investment that you were talking about.
    Those are all the recent changes I know of where Vanguard has made it difficult to invest in certain products or have access to certain services. There certainly can be others, potentially more significant, that you had in mind.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    FYI: Billionaire money manager Ken Fisher has come under fire for crass comments he was said to have made Tuesday as part of an exclusive fireside chat in front of financial services executives at The Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco.
    In a video that amassed nearly 70,000 views within 16 hours of being shared to Twitter on Tuesday night, financial advisor Alex Chalekian called Fisher's comments, which were made on the second day of an invite-only summit hosted by Tiburon Security Advisors, "absolutely horrifying.”
    According to Chalekian in the video, Fisher inappropriately referenced genitalia, Jeffrey Epstein and "tripping on acid." Wealth manager Rachel Robasciotti attended the event and told Bloomberg that Fisher, a former longtime Forbes columnist, compared building client trust to "trying to get into a girl's pants."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2019/10/09/billionaire-ken-fisher-blasted-online-after-offensive-comments-at-closed-door-fireside-chat/#2184133619ea
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    You get moderated off the M* forum and end up here. You are great at posting after the fact of unsubstantiated trades. You have been offered over $1000 to provide just a year or two of monthly trading statements but refuse. You have been asked to post in real time the day of your trades not days and weeks afterwards but you refuse. IOFIX? You are been vociferous the past year on your dislike of this fund. What exactly are your present holdings and % of total portfolio as of this morning. That is not a difficult question. In my 50 plus years in the game from what I have seen over at M* you are the worst trader I have ever witnessed. And I have dealt with thousands of traders.
    Can’t you just post your analysis which many enjoy and leave out all the fiction of your after the fact trading exploits. I may have to dust off my Crooks Con Men, and Charlatans thread.
    Edit. Here is a thread today over ar M*. Read carefully the comments from Bazinga. A most accurate analysis of the Great Pretender
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Community-Feedback/Is-the-FD-on-Bonds-thread-locked/m-p/26018#M1312
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    What about fees and other misc costs, would surely cut out your long-term returns for sure... I can't stand seeing >1.5% fees rotten away every yr
    johnN johnN in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    SPLV is doing better than USMV in the last year and both better than SPY.
    See PV(link)
    The above show that Sharpe+Sortino are much better for USMV than VFINX(SP500) and even PRWCX(allocation) is better because performance is close but SD and others are better.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Schwab index funds are cheaper than VG.
    Expense ratios are just one part of the equation.
    On the cost side there are tax costs. When you buy an OEF share class of a Vanguard fund you benefit from the fund's ability to dump any cap gains via the fund's ETF share class.
    Vanguard 2018 YE distributions (no cap gains for index funds, except institutional funds that have no ETF class shares)
    Schwab 2018 YE distributions (see p. 3)
    On the revenue side, there's security lending. "Consistent with Vanguard’s client-owned structure, Vanguard returns all net lending revenues—after subtracting program costs, agent fees (on non-U.S. securities), and any broker rebates—to the funds."
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGSL.pdf
    As it turns out, Schwab has a similar policy. But unlike Vanguard, with Schwab would you be confident of that without checking?
    https://www.schwabfunds.com/public/file/P-7549969
    The point is that there is much more going on than is reflected in ERs. Relatively speaking a basis point one way or the other is just noise. How much tracking accuracy will the fund trade off for better pricing? DFA does this so extensively that it says its funds are actively managed, albeit indexed. Full replication vs. sampling; quality of sampling methodology. And so on.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Hi sir @_davidrmoran.. Good post... Imagine if they cut everything across the board (reduce indegent Healthcare /ssi/Medicare infrastructure spendings/nonessntial staff workers in govt cut back/military budget spending, /taxeveryone 1%higher (and 5%raisetax for wealthy individuals) - - we will reach deficits goals in no time. .. The problem are no one would give in.. These views are too radicals
    johnN johnN in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    And from today, repeating the above total figure, lest anyone think Krugman is (again) a 'what, me worry?' about debt; also the ramifications of not doing the right things with the debt moneys:
    While we're all (rightly) focused on the constitutional crisis, CBO just projected a fiscal 2019 deficit of $984 billion — just shy of a trillion. No need to panic about solvency; but we should marvel both at GOP hypocrisy and how little all this debt bought, 1/
    All through the Obama years, Republicans gave fire-and-brimstone speeches denouncing the evils of budget deficits — and blackmailed Obama into fiscal austerity in the face of high unemployment. Then they blew up the deficit as soon as they were in power, 2/
    The deficit was $660 billion in fiscal 2017 (which ended on Sept. 30 and didn't reflect the Trump tax cut). So we've seen a $320 billion surge, despite a growing economy that should have brought the deficit down. That's a lot of fiscal stimulus! 3/
    Imagine what might have been accomplished if we'd been willing to spend an extra $300 billion a year on infrastructure. Instead, it was mainly taxcuts for businesses and the wealthy, which were supposed to supercharge growth. 4/
    In reality it's unclear at this point whether the taxcut did anything for growth; it certainly didn't lead to the promised surge in investment. 5/
    A best guess is that the taxcut was a bit of a stimulus, but with low bang for the buck; and that its effects were offset, or more than offset, by Trump's trade war. So despite completely abandoning their pretended principles, Rs haven't gotten much. 6/
    In particular, the idea that a booming economy would rescue Trump from his troubles on other fronts now looks farfetched. Moral: if you're going to be a complete hypocrite, at least try to do it right. 7/
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    This from 27y ago is pretty droll, about inequality (which is fundamentally related to debt and to taxation, as everyone knows who read this week's headlines about ultrarich low low low tax rates, or even those who did not):
    https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/income-and-wealth-distribution-or-watching-professional-republicans-sell-their-souls-back-in-1992-hoisted-from-the-archive.html
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions