Market lows were seen in March - and we'll never see them again. Howdy folks,
Please, dear God, get a grip. Take away NYC and the Curve is still spiking for the nation. That means that when it peaks we'll have an equal number of deaths on the downslope. Do the math. 3000 deaths per day. 20 days left in May, 80K right now. Er, 150k by June 1. Double that for June. At this rate of 'smart' living we'll hit a million by fall when the second wave starts. Oh, and every scientist on the planet says the second wave is going to be much worse.
Sorry.
Rono
Is it right time to buy into oil rally? Business air travel has changed significantly amid COVID-19 situation as telecons have replaced face-to-face meetings. Most of the tasks are getting done but personal experience differs widely. Security and connectivity are improving. I suspect most of this method will remain for health safety and cost saving consideration when the lockdowns relax later this year. Question is will business travel ever return to the same capacity in the future? Leisure travel may differ. Certainly there will be more restrictive at the airports. With fewer demand on fuels and oil, energy sector is a long long term play if you have the patience.
Market lows were seen in March - and we'll never see them again. The 68-69 flu killed a ~100k in the USA over 1.5 years... we're getting there in 4 months with COVID19 and only 400k-500k attended Woodstock.
Market lows were seen in March - and we'll never see them again. Hello
We may find out by end of summer-mid falls/after presumptive media-driven news regarding colossal massive deaths [maybe supposed to be 2 -3 millionss by time we are done] from covid19 rebounds.
Prelim numbers could be ~ ? 30x to 80x off based on antibodies studies [but death data and number carrying virus could be skewed either ways]; others says world ending virus/doomsday virus has killed 0.0003% of US population so far [probably from DT/trumptards fans].
Still 90/10 w/ private portfolio and redistributions and adding TDF 2045 [rebalanced form 80/20 after March 20s th]
Read somewhere where they had that massive Asian Flu in late 69s and greatest concerts in Earth Still happened @ Woodstock where millions did showed up. US did have braver men and women at that time. Think international travel maybe limited back then. Social Distancing were out of questions definitely then [especially w/ the heavy smoking/ grass and s*x]
But feel bad either ways for business owners will be on the streets soon begging for food if keep everything closed any longer.
I called and discussed w/ the Merrill Edge managers last week, they say maybe good time to buy for long terms [not short nor medium], I think market maybe much higher 5 yrs from today. Probably best go 90/10, shut everything off for 6 months [TV news, etc...] keep DCAs. [We will see what happen in 6 months-12 months when wake up from this nightmare].
I do feel blessed because accnt only ~ 10s% down from previous all time highs. Maybe spoken too soon, maybe 25s% down again after summer.
Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning Hi guys ... The S&P 500 Index keeps climbing and as of today's close of 2930 puts it up about 31% from its 52 week low and down 13.5% from its 52 week high. For the barometer, it keeps dropping and scores the Index as extremely overbought based upon its metrics. Can the Index keep going higher while the barometer keeps falling? Remember, this is a Fed induced rally with large amounts of money having been injected into the financial system. With this, I'm now thinking that the market can rally on. And, when the barometer starts rising again ...Well, this may be a signal for more volatility ahead. Much like the restaurants, bars & grills in the Carolinas make a last call shout out about a half an hour before closing time.
Market lows were seen in March - and we'll never see them again.
How Will the Global Downturn Impact Your Portfolio? Ran across this article on M* this morning. I found the chart quite interesting as it shows geographic exposure on where companies from various countries do business...domestic revenues compared to revenues from international operations. You would think that based on China's reputation as an exporter of goods to the world that it would have significant risk to international economies when in fact the Chinese economy is largely domestic focused, 92%. Other businesses from countries such as Switzerland derive almost all revenues from international operations, 9
1%.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/983363/how-will-the-global-downturn-impact-your-portfolio
"Core" bond fund holdings I "love" when someone says averages. You can do better than the average and/or find better than average funds. It also depends on when you start and end the results.
Any time you start before a crash and end after a crash, "safer" higher-credit bonds look better.
So, if I compare PIMIX to BND from 0
1/20
10 to 0
1/20
18(
link). PIMIX did 3 times better and why PIMIX was a major % of my portfolio. Since 0
1/20
18 it wasn't as good but IOFIX was great until end of 02/2020 when I sold it.
Basically, it depends what kind of investor are you, style, goals, retiree or accumulator and more.
Gold Miners Take Off While Financials Sink
As central banks break the junk debt barrier, investors will follow Is it really about earnings anymore? So much money chasing stocks it doesn't matter what happens they are bid up. I mean 14% unemployment and not even a shrug. Strange times indeed. ADD: Looks like stock market inflation to me... too much money chasing too little stocks.
Pimco funds - am I missing something? That said, I didn't add the comment in my post above because at least for vanilla bond funds, YTD performance is positive and in line with long term performance. Of course, the more one moves away from vanilla, the greater the skew:
Intermediate Core: YTD: 3.27%, 5 year 3.22%
Intermediate Core Plus: YTD 1.17%, 5 year 3.15%
Multisector: YTD -6.61%, 5 year 2.13%
High Yield: YTD -9.98%, 5 year 2.09%
Agree. This year Multisector bonds lag the Intermediate core bonds by ~
10%, indicating flight to safety.
Did Warren Buffett Buy Stocks in the Coronavirus Crash? The Answer Might Surprise You Several Berkshire Hathaway's managers including Adit Jain, Greg Abel, and Todd Combs are part of the succession plan for sometime now. When Warren Buffet is not make big move now other than selling ALL airline stocks should signify there is little chance of this sector of returning to profitable in the near future.
https://barrons.com/articles/coronavirus-news-updates-51588687892He has more cash now than 2008 crisis when he bought a number of financial stocks, most notable Bank of America.
Gold Miners Take Off While Financials Sink Howdy folks,
[the choir singing]
The nice thing about investing these days is that we have a lot of choices and investment vehicles. Most PM funds only invest in mining stocks and not bullion. You have some ETF bullion funds but I consider them to be trading vehicles and NOT investments. It's all a paper bullion game of musical chairs and the music is going to stop one of these days.
So i prefer either PM mutual funds or ETFs that invest in the miners. They have them for large caps or juniors and gold or silver.
Of these choices, I prefer silver and junior miners with SILJ but also like junior gold GDXJ. It's all about leverage as miners have more than bullion and silver has more than gold. At least that is what I've seen in the Hunt Bros rally in the late 70s and the Big Bonanza of 2002 - 2011.
And so it goes
Peace and Flatten the Curve
Rono
This is the trap awaiting the stock market ahead of a grim summer, warns Nomura strategist
MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX ooh, ooh, DSEEX the last 10 days has rocked past SP500 (rocked meaning slightly outpaced)
Is it right time to buy into oil rally? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-It-The-Right-Time-To-Buy-Into-The-Oil-Price-Rally.html/After a heavy dose of doom and gloom, the oil markets seem to be finally getting their footing back. Crude prices have almost fully retraced their historic nosedive three weeks ago, with WTI crude for June delivery following up Monday's 22% rally with a
13.5% gain at 9 am ET on Tuesday. /
Oil energy continued to do well if economy staring open up...we have been adding slowly to this sector past few wks. Whether future returns are attained, hard to say but mid 20s bucks per barrel appear extremely cheap and perhaps only one way is to go is UP
T Rowe Price International Funds
Thanks,
@msf, this looks like a nice opportunity. Unfortunately I've tried a few different times on different days, different laptops and so on but it hasn't worked for me. Has anyone else had any success?
