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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy When There's Blood In The Streets
    I would posit TGT and some of the mall/retail REITs (WPG and CBL on the high risk side, as well as SKT, KIM on the lower risk side) as examples of "buy when blood is in the streets." Also QCOM, which recently raised its dividend 7.5% (and forward yield over 4%), with its legal problems.
    Aside: "Old tech" may be one of the next places to look for continued good dividend growth stocks.
  • Wall Street Strategists Not Enthusiastic From Here
    @Old[_Skeet: I think the S&P 500 will finish the year at 2576, up 10% from its present number.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Wall Street Strategists Not Enthusiastic From Here
    Old_Skeet is still with his call of the S&P 500 Index reaching sonewhere around 2475 sometime during 2017. Thus far the Index climbed to a closing high of around 2396 on March 1st.
    This call was contained in a post by MJG titled "Blind Forecast" and is linked below for your viewing.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/30998/blind-forecasters#latest
  • Wall Street Strategists Not Enthusiastic From Here
    FYI: At the end of 2016, we published this post on year-end price targets for Wall Street strategists. For 2017, the average strategist projected the S&P 500 to post a gain of 5.5%. That’s actually bearish relative to the average annual projection going back to 2000. As shown below, on average, Wall Street strategists collectively project a gain of 9.6% each year. In 2016, strategists predicted the S&P would gain 8.4%, which ended up being just 1.1 percentage points away from the actual gain of 9.5% seen last year. That was the closest they’ve ever gotten to hitting the mark. Normally, they’re about 5.5 percentage points above the actual year-end change.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/wall-street-strategists-not-enthusiastic-from-here/
  • The Closing Bell: Wall Street Down As Geopolitical Fears Cause Risk-Off Trade
    Good morning,
    Over the past couple of weeks I have watched the US 10 Year move from a yield of about 2.5% down to about 2.25%. That's quite a move and with this I have backed off of buying in the income area of my portfolio; but, might continue to add to my CD ladder in the cash area of the portfolio.
  • Buy When There's Blood In The Streets
    By my math the S&P 500 Index is down form its 52 week closing high by about 2.1%. I'm thinking we have a ways to go before blood strats running in the streets with margin calls that investors can't meet and their positions get sold out. Today Old_Skeets market barometer closed the day with a reading of 145. With this, the barometer is reflecting that the Index is currrently overvalued by about 3%. Still aways to go before the dip becomes a pullback that possibly leads into a correction.
    And, so it goes ...
  • BRADDOCK MULTI-STRATEGY INCOME
    Any thoughts on BDKAX/BDKNX. BDKNX(institutional)looks like it opened 7/2009. Looks pretty good... Three year standard deviation is listed at 1.73 with a sharpe ratio of 3.07. Five year standard deviation listed as 3.03 with a sharpe ratio of 3.2. One three and five year returns: 8.82, 5.65, 10.30. Seems like there should be a catch besides the 1.5/1.75 ER.
  • Investment advice
    I'm going to guess from your use of the word "mirroring" that you're looking at the new AlphaClone Mirror Portfolios Wrap Fee Program. You pay 0.196% in wrap fees for a portfolio of $383,333. That's $750. You'll pay $750 for any lesser amount as well. On a larger portfolio, you'll pay $750 plus 0.15% or less (tiered rates) on the extra amount.
    That doesn't seem excessive to me. But you need to commit over $1/3M to get these economies of scale. Note that this is just a discretionary account, there's no financial planning included.
    There's a clear conflict of interest, as 10% - 40% of the portfolio will include ETFs licensed and (except for one) advised by by AlphaClone. AlphaClone receives 0.95% which it uses to pay the index licensing fees (presumably to itself), to hire a subadviser to run the ETFs, and to retain as profits.
    These are passively managed ETFs (per prospectus), but the Mirror Portfolios program says that these ETFs are "utilize[d] ... where appropriate to serve as the 'more active' component within the equity asset class."
    So I'd be careful in thinking that the wrap program uses "active investments".
    AlphaClone is essentially one person, Mazin Jadallah (the corp says it has just one employee in its form ADV).
    While the ETF prospectus lists several ETFs, only two are significant enough to hit M*'s radar. The older one is ALFA, a 2* long/short ETF that has underperformed the S&P 500 from inception (5/31/12) to 12/31/15 (per prospectus) 12.34% to 15.55%. M* reports its three year performance (ending 4/11/17) as 1.83% vs. 11.36% for S&P 500. Its costs include not only the 0.95% management fee, but shorting costs of an additional 2.20% (per M* and per prospectus). According to M*, risk high (runs hot and cold).
    The other fund on M*'s website is ALFI. This is a newer ETF. Not much info on this.
  • Berkowitz’s Fairholme Faces $16 Billion In Withdrawals Over 6 Years, Morningstar Says
    Understanding deep value stocks (picking out of favor stocks and, in BB case, under par bonds) and then executing deep value management (making buy/sell decisions as well as managing the turmoil that surrounds these out of favor securities) has been challenging for BB.
    The typical investors today has a much shorter time horizons when evaluating their investment success and BB fund investments are anything but typical and usually require a very long term commitment for success.
    Sears has rebounded from it's Feb 9, 2017 low... wonder when he made his most recent buys of this stock?
    image
  • HMLSF - Horizons Medical Marijuana Life Science ETF
    Ted had posted a few weeks back about a marijuana ETF starting on the Toronto exchange (HMMJ.TO). This etf is now available in the USA under the ticker HMLSF. VERY speculative play, and I had to pay an additional $50 due to this etf being in Canada, but I bought a small amount today via Fido. Fwiw.
  • Ben Carlson: How Much Money To You Need To Retire ?
    FYI: There are all sorts of rules of thumb about saving for retirement. There’s the 4% withdrawal rule. Another rule states you need to have saved 20-25x the annual income you want to spend in retirement. Then there’s the one that says you’ll need to replace 80% of your current income from your portfolio in retirement.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/04/how-much-money-do-you-need-to-retire/
  • Fake Investment News Could Be Here to Stay: Seeking Alpha.Com ?
    FYI: (The Linkster never links anything from Seeking Alpha.Com.)
    The Securities and Exchange Commission is trying to rid the nation of phony stock stories. It’s safe to say that the agency has a steep climb ahead of it.
    On Monday, the SEC announced that it is cracking down on stock promotion schemes that played out on Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, Wall Street Cheat Sheet and other investment websites in recent years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/fake-investment-news-could-be-here-to-stay-1491951655
  • John Waggoner: Listed Funds Offer Access To Private Equity With Liquidity
    LPEFX has been one of Old_Skeet's holdings for now better than five years with an average annual return, for me, of around 15%. I hold this fund in the specialty sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through March 2017
    Some background ...
    MFO's Fund Family Scorecard measures how well funds run by the same management company have performed against their peers since inception.
    We first published the card in June 2014 commentary with How Good Is Your Fund Family?, followed by updates in May 2015 and May 2016. Beginning in June 2016, our premium site updates the card monthly and provides fund family metrics.
    Scorecard ranking is based on absolute total return, reflecting reinvested dividends and expenses, but excluding any load, since first full month of fund inception (or back to Jan 1960, which starts our Lipper database).
    A "fund family" comprises at least 3 funds, excluding money market, age 3 months or more, oldest share class only. The methodology is strictly quantitative, based on past performance of existing funds. It does not account for survivorship bias, category drift, management or strategy changes.
    OK, with that out of way, this month seven new fund families entered the scorecard. They are: Alambic, Amplify, Leader, MML, Polen, Vest and W E Donoghue.
    Alambic and Polen both entered the scorecard with a "Top Fund Family" rating. All of their funds have beaten their peers since inception (click on image to enlarge):
    image
    image
    Alambic Investment Management LP was founded in 2013 and is based in San Francisco, CA.
    Polen Capital Management LLC was founded in 1989 and is based in Boca Raton, FL.
  • M *: Upgrades & Downgrades: 62 New Fund Analyst Ratings In March
    Thanks @Ted...or should I say "Quick Draw McGraw". I will circular file my post.
    image
  • John Waggoner: Listed Funds Offer Access To Private Equity With Liquidity
    @MFO Members: The ALPS | Red Rocks Listed Private Equity Fund is an open-end mutual fund that provides investors with exposure to private businesses by investing in publicly-traded private equity companies that trade on global exchanges. These listed private equity companies have direct ownership, control and influence over the privately held businesses in their portfolios. The Fund assembles approximately 30-50 holdings and is diversified by stage of investment, geography, industry, and capital structure. Investors enjoy daily liquidity and valuation, and the primary mission of the Fund is to maximize total return. Regards,
    Ted
    (Source) Fund Website
    Fund Holdings:
    http://www.alpsfunds.com/holdings/alps-red-rocks-listed-private-equity-fund
  • These Areas Hold Promise In Bonds After Topsy-Turvy Q1
    I looked at some random samples:
    PRSNX GLOBAL bond, past 3 months: 2.05%
    MAINX (Asia, but lumped into Global Bond categ. at M*: ) 1.83%.
    ..."The riskiest bonds outperformed sharply..." (Morningstar.)
    TPINX 4.89%
    PHMIX (HY Munis:) 3.31%
    PREMX 3.29%
    FNMIX: 3.62%
    ...And then there's the more conservative and investment-grade stuff:
    LSIIX : 1.96%
    DLFNX 1.19%
    DODIX 1.11%
    ....So, yeah. This jives. I don't do ETFs, though, so...
  • These Areas Hold Promise In Bonds After Topsy-Turvy Q1
    FYI: Global bond funds outperformed U.S. domestic fixed-income funds as the Federal Reserve decided to go ahead with an interest-rate hike in March, surprising most market participants who expected it in June.
    The average general U.S. taxable bond fund fell 0.05% in March, trimming its Q1 gain to 1.58%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/these-areas-hold-promise-in-bonds-after-topsy-turvy-q1/
  • Lewis Braham: How To Sidestep Common Investment Mistakes
    " High levels of portfolio turnover may indicate higher transaction costs and may result in higher taxes for you if your Fund shares are held in a taxable account."
    Straight from the prospectus. It's got several more sentences about how turnover affects costs and how short term gains affect taxes. Can't say the fund isn't upfront about things. It even lists high turnover as an investment risk.
    Hard to tell whether this high turnover is an anomaly or to be expected. The AUM have fluctuated wildly, though the correlation with turnover here isn't obvious:

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    AUM $49K $8.6M $10M $0.85M $4.3M
    turnover 76% 64% 89% 108% 194%
    Near the end of 2015, AllianzGI Behavioral Advantage Large Cap Fund was reorganized into this fund. So the earlier figures are substantially meaningless. Same management but different "principal investment strategies, as well as fees and expenses." (Again, quoting prospectus.) Without knowing more, I'm inclined to attribute the plummet in AUM to the reorganization of the fund.