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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives

    Everyone said the GFC aftermath was a 'generational' buying opportunity. IMO the past 10 years were a cheap-debt fueled 'bull' (key word!) market that was artificially supported by QE, ZIRP, and what-not from the Fed. Yes, it was a fantastic ride, but I still think when the music stops, and the ZIRP drug wears off, the resulting crash in equities will make 07-08 look like a wobble and be the real 'generational' buying opportunity of a lifetime.
    Note that I am most certainly NOT a perma-anything, and my accounts are 90% long invested in equities and I'm definitely not sitting all in cash. But when/as the time comes, I will be buying equities on my watchlist hands-over-fists on the way down with the intention of holding 'forever' in my long-term accounts. Embrace the volatility, if you're still in the early or midlife accumulation stage!
    In terms of bonds? Who knows ... after '07 I was kind of expecting given all the money-printing, for bond yields to be inching towards 1980s-levels, but that wasn't to be. However, if we ever hit 8, 10, 12% on Treasuries, absolutely I will buy with extreme prejudice, b/c I saw what similar holdings turned out for my relatives back then, and how well they were able to live off them. But I don't see that happening anytime soon, so .. whatever. I stick with stocks.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @Crash, try BDRBF, without the dot. That's the symbol at Schwab.
    This stock is down 65% since last October. What makes it interesting to you? Just curious.
    I wish I had some "play money." I might go after Bombardier. I've looked at its stats. And I've seen a couple of very recent news items about the company and its stock. It used to be spread all over from hell to breakfast. The Province of Quebec had to come to its rescue. Bombardier is currently busy getting focused again on just a couple of money-making avenues. Analysts like what they see. This is a company which is restructuring and seemingly has nowhere to go but up. It has been around since 1951, if I recall correctly, making snow-go machines and specialty Arctic transport vehicles. No more. Corporate jets are one emphasis. And I see Bombardier has a contract to service a bunch of trains over in England. The company is pulling out of military and commercial aircraft products, too. Quebec has too much at stake to let this established, legacy name just fail.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rail-deal-to-help-keep-bombardier-on-track-rlmtl9m5j
    https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2019/08/19/a-new-bombardier-aviation-is-formed-as-it-exits-commercial-aerospace/
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/bdrbf/quote
    Morningstar rates it at a -37% discount to fair value right now. "Simply Wall Street" rates it currently at a -50% discount to fair value.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    I have been reading about all the woes about to befall the junk bond market because of how levered companies are, the maturity wall, etc. for several years now. I would love to exploit it but the opportunity of a lifetime and most likely to never be seen in anyone’s lifetime was 2009 when the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was up something like 56%. Back in 2008 junk bonds were predicting a default rate (21%) much worse than what occurred during the Great Depression (16%). The next recession may be shallower than most predict and junk bonds at worst will be down more akin to late 2015/early 2016 when oil prices crashed. We heard this same pessimistic song and dance about junk bonds in late 2018 but in reality what occurred was all times highs in 2019.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    Stops are generally defensive orders (hence "stop loss"). You place a stop sell order on a security you own at a price below the current market price. That way, you protect against backsliding too much. (If you're looking to buy a security, you place a stop buy order above market price, so that you catch the trend before it runs away from you.)
    The problem is that a jolt to the market could cause a sharp, temporary downward spike. That would trigger your stop order, but because the market was moving rapidly, your sell order could execute at a price well below your trigger price. Then the jolt subsides, the stock price recovers, and you're out a pretty penny. Stop limit orders address this situation. Perhaps that's the kind of order entry you're seeing at Firstrade?
    Schwab: Mastering the Order Types: Stop-Limit Orders
    https://www.schwab.com/active-trader/insights/content/mastering-order-types-stop-limit-orders
    Firstrade stock trading screen:
    image
    With regard to free, or even $4.95 trades not being profitable, surely you've heard the old punchline: we lose money on every trade but we make it up in volume.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    This possibility is worth keeping in mind...
    I think the next selloff in high-yield bonds is going to offer one of the great opportunities of my lifetime.
    In a distressed debt market, when the tide is going out, everything goes down. Some very creditworthy bonds will sell at a fraction of the eventual return. This is what makes for such great opportunities. They only come a few times in your life.
    There will be one in your near future.
    https://marketwatch.com/story/the-investing-opportunity-of-a-lifetime-awaits-us-when-the-recession-arrives-2019-08-20?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 I was playing around at Firstrade last night, just to familiarize myself. I tried to fill in the blanks on a dummy-trade, with Canada-based Bombardier. It's Canada-based, but trades OTC here in the States. Firstrade did not like the idea at all. Disappointed, there... Ticker is: BDRB.F
  • M*: The Long View: Guest: Rob Arnott: Don't Sleep on Value Investing (Especially Emerging-Markets
    FYI: Our guest on the podcast today is Rob Arnott. Arnott is partner and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, a firm he established in 2002, following stints at First Quadrant and Salomon Brothers. He also runs several prominent mutual funds, including PIMCO All Asset. In addition to these duties, Arnott is an accomplished thought leader, having published more than 100 articles in professional journals. Among other plaudits for his work, he has received seven Graham and Dodd Scrolls, awarded by the CFA Institute to the top financial analyst journal articles of the year. An innovator, Arnott popularized the concept of fundamental indexation, which some refer to as smart beta.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/943058/arnott-dont-sleep-on-value-investing-especially-emerging-markets-value
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 ok. I'm not seeing emails with every log-in. I'm glad to hear they are consistent and secure. Also see the reply from @msf above, regarding costs, and how they probably work out the "free" trades. ...Now, teach me something: I could easily buy with a "market order." But Firstrade lets us use LIMIT orders, too. Then I see that a "stop" (stop-loss?) is required when filling in your desired stock purchase. I understand that the"limit price" is the specified share price at which you are willing to buy.... What's the purpose of needing a "STOP" figure, too? Others can chime in, too. Thank you.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Corporate America & The Rules Of Capitalism: Text & Video Presentation
    FYI: I jumped on MSNBC with Stephanie Ruhle to discuss the possibility of recession and the changes in the Business Roundtable views of “Shareholder Value.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://ritholtz.com/2019/08/corporate-america-the-rules-of-capitalism/
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 Hello. How does Firstrade manage NOT to charge any commission at all on standard stock trades? I just opened an account. I see that electronic statements are the norm. Paper statements through the mail incur a charge. But are not all such companies required still, to send official tax documents by snail-mail? They wanted a phone number, so I gave them 111-111-1111. The wonderful system gave me no arguments. I've not funded it, yet.
    I'm not sure but I've been with FT for many years and never had a problem. Very secure, I get an email with every login. The website is basic but easy to use. You also need to download quicken files to update if you use Quicken BUT they do offer free MS and still use the older (usable) format. I don't think brokerages earn much charging 4.95 a trade. The free trades is probably a loss leader. They pay almost nothing on idle cash so you will need to buy a cash equivalent fund/etf.
  • RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth to reorganize
    Updated:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834419014680/fp0045254_497.htm
    497 1 fp0045254_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth
    RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth
    SUPPLEMENT DATED AUGUST 20, 2019 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES,
    PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2019,
    AS SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    This Supplement updates certain of the information previously provided in the supplement dated June 13, 2019.
    At a meeting held on June 11-12, 2019, the Board of Trustees of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”) approved Agreements and Plans of Reorganization providing for the reorganization of RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth, each a series of the Trust (each, a “Target Fund” and collectively, the “Target Funds”) into RiverFront Asset Allocation Moderate and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth & Income, respectively, each a series of the Trust (each, an “Acquiring Fund”) (each, a “Reorganization” and collectively, the “Reorganizations”).
    Shareholders of each Target Fund as of the close of business on August 20, 2019 will receive more information about such Target Fund’s Reorganization in a separate information statement. The Reorganizations do not require shareholder approval and therefore no action is being requested of shareholders. The closing of the Reorganizations will occur in the 3rd quarter of 2019 with an expected date of on or about September 9, 2019.
    As a result of the Reorganizations, shareholders of each Target Fund will become shareholders of the corresponding Acquiring Fund. Shareholders of each Target Fund will receive shares of the corresponding Acquiring Fund with an aggregate value equal to the aggregate value of their shares of the Target Fund held immediately prior to the Reorganization. After the Reorganizations are complete, the Target Funds will be liquidated and terminated. Each of the Reorganizations is expected to be a tax-free, therefore shareholders should not realize a tax gain or loss as a direct result of the Reorganization. The expenses incurred in connection with the Reorganizations will be paid by ALPS Advisors, Inc.
    Purchases with respect to the Target Funds have been disallowed since the close of business on June 21, 2019.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • How to break an investment tool--but gain insights from it, anyway.
    Yay! Let's all put all our faith in AI; that way we won't have to be bothered to think for ourselves any more. Let's just use whatever tools are available to us without understanding their inherent limitations, or the assumptions that are baked into them. The little discussion surrounding Monte Carlo methods was a good example; it's one possible means to an end.
    Maybe it's just me, but I've always been one to check my assumptions when someone's version of reality doesn't jive with mine. WRT VG's calculator, what I would have done (even before consulting the calculator) was laid out an expected set of annual expenditures- a tentative spending plan of sorts. It doesn't become my 'budget' until I decide to adopt it and control my spending to conform to it. If my spending plan says that I need $190K/yr despite some automated thing telling me that I need $225K/yr, I say WTF? One of us clearly doesn't understand the problem. If I decide to go ahead with an annuity, and there is going to be a shortfall of $TBD, it's incumbent on me to revisit my spending plan and make adjustments. You know, cash-flow management.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    Stocks are easy. Payment for order flow, spread, lending (stocks are registered in street name), etc. See, e.g. WSJ, Why ‘Free Trading’ on Robinhood Isn’t Really Free While this article is about Robinhood, it addresses your question of how any brokerage could make money on zero-commission stock trades.
    Robinhood makes money, in part, by sending customer orders to high-frequency traders in exchange for cash. It's a controversial but legal practice in the brokerage industry called payment for order flow. ...
    The upshot: When you buy or sell shares on Robinhood, the app is likely executing your trade at a slightly worse price than another broker would, market veterans say. ...
    Robinhood charges a monthly fee for its margin-lending service, Robinhood Gold. And if you want to move your account from Robinhood to another broker, you must pay $75. ...
    What if the broker demands a big payment from the market maker? That reduces the market maker's profit, forcing it to quote a wider spread. And the customer gets less price improvement.
    (Lots more, but I'm trying to stay within fair use bounds.)
    From IRS Pub 1179:
    If you are required to furnish a written statement (Copy B or an acceptable substitute) to a recipient, then you may furnish the statement electronically instead of on paper. This includes furnishing the statement to recipients of Forms 1098, 1098-E, 1098-F, 1098-MA, 1098-Q, 1098-T, 1099-A, 1099-B, 1099-C, 1099-CAP, 1099-DIV, 1099-G, 1099-INT, 1099-K, 1099-LS, 1099-LTC, 1099-MISC, 1099-OID, 1099-PATR, 1099-Q, 1099-QA, 1099-R, 1099-S, 1099-SA, 1099-SB, 1042-S, 3921, 3922, 5498, 5498-ESA, 5498-QA, and 5498-SA.
  • How to break an investment tool--but gain insights from it, anyway.
    When Vanguard's Retirement Income Calculator Stopped Making Sense
    "Try Harder!
    The president of the American Finance Association, Dr. David Hirshleifer, noticed something peculiar about Vanguard's Retirement Income Calculator. By its reckoning, a hypothetical 55-year-old investor who saved at the tool's highest possible rate, earning the highest possible return, holding the highest possible current retirement assets, and willing to settle for the lowest possible income-replacement rate … would fail. Her projected monthly income would fall short of the projected goal."
    Click here for more
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 Hello. How does Firstrade manage NOT to charge any commission at all on standard stock trades? I just opened an account. I see that electronic statements are the norm. Paper statements through the mail incur a charge. But are not all such companies required still, to send official tax documents by snail-mail? They wanted a phone number, so I gave them 111-111-1111. The wonderful system gave me no arguments. I've not funded it, yet.
  • First Vegan Investment Fund Coming To New York Stock Exchange: (VEGN)
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    An investment fund designed for animal rights advocates and environmentalists, the first of its kind according to financial experts, is set to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) next month.
    VEGN, as it will show on the NYSE’s floor, enters the fray of hundreds of funds that consider environmental, social or governance (ESG) factors in their investment decisions but will be unique in going animal cruelty-free, experts said.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-funds-vegan/first-vegan-investment-fund-coming-to-new-york-stock-exchange-idUSKCN1V91XI
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    From the article:
    Now, if your local library system doesn’t provide this access, you can also look at state libraries, university libraries, or other libraries in the region for which you are eligible.
    For example, the NYPL is free to anyone in NYS. (Years ago, you had to live or work in Manhattan to get a card.) And it has the Morningstar Investment Research Center.
    https://www.nypl.org/blog/2012/12/05/breaking-news-morningstar-available-nypl-home
    So if you live in Buffalo, you're all set.
    New Mexico residents qualify for a free library card to the public library of Albuquerque and Bernalillo County . That gives them access to the Morningstar Investment Research Center.
    Look around. Your friendly library doesn't have to be local.