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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How big must your nest egg be?
    another interesting datapoint about lower SWR probabilities in a time of high p/e; from a place I do not know:
    https://www.crestmontresearch.com/blog/excerpt/5/
    (appears to conform with a kitces piece bee posted a year ago
    https://finpage.blog/2018/02/28/cape-and-safe-withdrawal-rates/ )
  • Byron Wien: Plenty To Worry About, But Not Much for Investors To Do
    FYI: Every summer for the past several decades I have organized a series of Friday lunches in eastern Long Island for serious investors. More than 100 people attend the four sessions, with 25–30 at each one. The participants include hedge fund, private equity and real estate billionaires, venture capitalists, an academic and some corporate leaders. I moderate a discussion of the key issues facing the financial markets for the better part of two hours. This year, several significant events occurred between the first two and the second two sessions. First, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point; second President Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on $300 billion of Chinese goods; third, China allowed its currency, the renminbi, to decline to more than seven to the dollar; and fourth, the Hong Kong disturbance took place.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/08/22/plenty_to_worry_about_but_not_much_for_investors_to_do_103868.html
  • Vanguard customer service
    It is true that while Merrill Lynch invented cash management accounts (CMAs) 42 years ago, Vanguard takes the opposite approach and focuses strictly on brokerage services. It was just three weeks ago that it discontinued its Vanguard Advantage CMA service. A service that it only offered to Voyager Select ($500K+) customers for $30/year and to Flagship ($1M+) customers for free.
    But I wouldn't get too excited about Merrill Edge. This is a brokerage that sometimes sweeps free cash into a 0.05% APR bank account (Vanguard pays 2.11% on its VMFXX settlement fund), and sometimes just leaves the cash siting in the brokerage earning 0.00%. Even when it pays that paltry interest on the sweep money, it deposits that interest back into the 0% brokerage account where it may sit earning nothing. (What other bank refuses to credit interest on an account directly to the account that earned the interest?)
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    fascinating discussion. It's been a good 10 years in the market so I have reduced equity holdings to about 50%. More of a tactical move though. Probably more driven by my fears of what the great idiot is going to do. I have alot in money markets and short term treasuries right now. Waiting for some kind of move and will probably open an initial position in IOFIX. @bee what are you doing with your "income milk."
  • Vang Wellington VWELX
    It is closed unless you purchase directly from Vanguard. (M* lists it as limited, not closed.)
    From the summary prospectus:
    Important Note Regarding Vanguard Wellington Fund
    Vanguard Wellington Fund will be closed to all prospective financial advisory, institutional, and intermediary clients (other than clients who invest through a Vanguard brokerage account).
    Vanguard fund page: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VWELX
  • Vanguard customer service
    If I want to move money into or out of my Vanguard account, I have to initiate the transfer at Vanguard. I cannot have another institution initiate the transfer.
    My preference is to initiate all transfers (in and out) and all bill pays at a central institution. That makes it easier for me to track. It also means that regardless of where I want to move money to or from, I know I can do it from a single place.
    Here's a Bogleheads thread on how Vanguard restricts ACH transfers from an external account:
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=125763
    And how to set up ACH transfers that you initiate from the Vanguard side:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/whatweoffer/accountservices/banking
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @Crash, if you want to play you can get in at any amount of whole shares. At $1.15 per share on that stock you can spend $11.50 for 10 shares (without trading costs). Have some fun!
  • First Vegan Investment Fund Coming To New York Stock Exchange: (VEGN)
    @Ted, I did read that about the "impossible Burger" they are trialling at Burger King. Different brand.
    I can tell you, my ancestry is Polish and my mother and grandmother made the best Golumpki "ever". My daughter in law (1/2 Polish from Pittsburg) used her family recipe and made them using "Beyond Meat" instead of ground beef and honestly I couldn't tell the difference. My only experience with the product but thought it was pretty good.
    But it's not what you and I think. We are likely to order that ground beef burger given the choice. It's what the many vegetarians in this world think that's going to matter.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 ok. I'm not seeing emails with every log-in. I'm glad to hear they are consistent and secure. Also see the reply from @msf above, regarding costs, and how they probably work out the "free" trades. ...Now, teach me something: I could easily buy with a "market order." But Firstrade lets us use LIMIT orders, too. Then I see that a "stop" (stop-loss?) is required when filling in your desired stock purchase. I understand that the"limit price" is the specified share price at which you are willing to buy.... What's the purpose of needing a "STOP" figure, too? Others can chime in, too. Thank you.
    Crash, this is because you did not select a limit order in the "order type" field. If you did then the "stop" option is grayed out. As to the email notification with each log in, I do get them. I assume this is a setting I chose but you did not. I'd call FT and ask if you want that feature, they usually answer quickly and the folks are fairly knowledgeable.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives

    @Bee, I have a large cash pile from account consolidations in recent years that for the most part has yet to be deployed into anything other than rolling-over t-bills. I've been using that dry powder to buy new / add to existing positions in recent weeks to my otherwise rather healthy longterm portfolios and am becoming more aggressive b/c I hate to have it just sitting there.
    (I don't consider that cash as part of my investment 'holdings' per se, which is why I say that 90% of what I'm invested in are stocks and stock funds -- I don't own much FI or alts or commodities, etc.)
    @rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you by equities hand over fist? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
    Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment ( for example I use yearly growth above 10% as my trigger for Large Cap).
    This "milk" is stored for future retirement income to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
    So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from selling my equities when they temporarily tank.
    My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    @rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you buy equities "hand over fist"? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
    Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment (for example, I use yearly growth above 10% as my "milking trigger" for Large Cap).
    This "milk" is stored for future retirement income (to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
    So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from being forced to sell equities when they are temporarily under valued.
    My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform. This could serve as a source of money to buy equities when they temporarily go on sale.
    Your thoughts?
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives

    Everyone said the GFC aftermath was a 'generational' buying opportunity. IMO the past 10 years were a cheap-debt fueled 'bull' (key word!) market that was artificially supported by QE, ZIRP, and what-not from the Fed. Yes, it was a fantastic ride, but I still think when the music stops, and the ZIRP drug wears off, the resulting crash in equities will make 07-08 look like a wobble and be the real 'generational' buying opportunity of a lifetime.
    Note that I am most certainly NOT a perma-anything, and my accounts are 90% long invested in equities and I'm definitely not sitting all in cash. But when/as the time comes, I will be buying equities on my watchlist hands-over-fists on the way down with the intention of holding 'forever' in my long-term accounts. Embrace the volatility, if you're still in the early or midlife accumulation stage!
    In terms of bonds? Who knows ... after '07 I was kind of expecting given all the money-printing, for bond yields to be inching towards 1980s-levels, but that wasn't to be. However, if we ever hit 8, 10, 12% on Treasuries, absolutely I will buy with extreme prejudice, b/c I saw what similar holdings turned out for my relatives back then, and how well they were able to live off them. But I don't see that happening anytime soon, so .. whatever. I stick with stocks.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @Crash, try BDRBF, without the dot. That's the symbol at Schwab.
    This stock is down 65% since last October. What makes it interesting to you? Just curious.
    I wish I had some "play money." I might go after Bombardier. I've looked at its stats. And I've seen a couple of very recent news items about the company and its stock. It used to be spread all over from hell to breakfast. The Province of Quebec had to come to its rescue. Bombardier is currently busy getting focused again on just a couple of money-making avenues. Analysts like what they see. This is a company which is restructuring and seemingly has nowhere to go but up. It has been around since 1951, if I recall correctly, making snow-go machines and specialty Arctic transport vehicles. No more. Corporate jets are one emphasis. And I see Bombardier has a contract to service a bunch of trains over in England. The company is pulling out of military and commercial aircraft products, too. Quebec has too much at stake to let this established, legacy name just fail.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rail-deal-to-help-keep-bombardier-on-track-rlmtl9m5j
    https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2019/08/19/a-new-bombardier-aviation-is-formed-as-it-exits-commercial-aerospace/
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/bdrbf/quote
    Morningstar rates it at a -37% discount to fair value right now. "Simply Wall Street" rates it currently at a -50% discount to fair value.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    I have been reading about all the woes about to befall the junk bond market because of how levered companies are, the maturity wall, etc. for several years now. I would love to exploit it but the opportunity of a lifetime and most likely to never be seen in anyone’s lifetime was 2009 when the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was up something like 56%. Back in 2008 junk bonds were predicting a default rate (21%) much worse than what occurred during the Great Depression (16%). The next recession may be shallower than most predict and junk bonds at worst will be down more akin to late 2015/early 2016 when oil prices crashed. We heard this same pessimistic song and dance about junk bonds in late 2018 but in reality what occurred was all times highs in 2019.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    Stops are generally defensive orders (hence "stop loss"). You place a stop sell order on a security you own at a price below the current market price. That way, you protect against backsliding too much. (If you're looking to buy a security, you place a stop buy order above market price, so that you catch the trend before it runs away from you.)
    The problem is that a jolt to the market could cause a sharp, temporary downward spike. That would trigger your stop order, but because the market was moving rapidly, your sell order could execute at a price well below your trigger price. Then the jolt subsides, the stock price recovers, and you're out a pretty penny. Stop limit orders address this situation. Perhaps that's the kind of order entry you're seeing at Firstrade?
    Schwab: Mastering the Order Types: Stop-Limit Orders
    https://www.schwab.com/active-trader/insights/content/mastering-order-types-stop-limit-orders
    Firstrade stock trading screen:
    image
    With regard to free, or even $4.95 trades not being profitable, surely you've heard the old punchline: we lose money on every trade but we make it up in volume.
  • The investing opportunity of a lifetime awaits us when the recession arrives
    This possibility is worth keeping in mind...
    I think the next selloff in high-yield bonds is going to offer one of the great opportunities of my lifetime.
    In a distressed debt market, when the tide is going out, everything goes down. Some very creditworthy bonds will sell at a fraction of the eventual return. This is what makes for such great opportunities. They only come a few times in your life.
    There will be one in your near future.
    https://marketwatch.com/story/the-investing-opportunity-of-a-lifetime-awaits-us-when-the-recession-arrives-2019-08-20?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    @wxman123 I was playing around at Firstrade last night, just to familiarize myself. I tried to fill in the blanks on a dummy-trade, with Canada-based Bombardier. It's Canada-based, but trades OTC here in the States. Firstrade did not like the idea at all. Disappointed, there... Ticker is: BDRB.F
  • M*: The Long View: Guest: Rob Arnott: Don't Sleep on Value Investing (Especially Emerging-Markets
    FYI: Our guest on the podcast today is Rob Arnott. Arnott is partner and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, a firm he established in 2002, following stints at First Quadrant and Salomon Brothers. He also runs several prominent mutual funds, including PIMCO All Asset. In addition to these duties, Arnott is an accomplished thought leader, having published more than 100 articles in professional journals. Among other plaudits for his work, he has received seven Graham and Dodd Scrolls, awarded by the CFA Institute to the top financial analyst journal articles of the year. An innovator, Arnott popularized the concept of fundamental indexation, which some refer to as smart beta.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/943058/arnott-dont-sleep-on-value-investing-especially-emerging-markets-value