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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    I listened to a very tiny little bit of it. They were talking about how the 2014 predictions said small cap were going to do better than large cap over the next 10 years LOL. I then closed it.
    backtesting is so often comical
  • stock selling below bid?
    @msf In your scenario it makes a bit more sense, but in my case it was more like I had a limit for 200 shares @ $50, got filled for 100, and the next trade came in for 50 shares @ $49.90. So my standing order could have absorbed the entire block with some room + the price difference was a little bit more appreciable... Would you still feel the same about the hypothetical $100/$1 split I discussed with the trading rep?
  • Crossing Bridge Q3 Commentary
    footnote "32. Credit metrics and yield per turn of leverage for CrossingBridge Nordic Core Value Positions reflect 30 dollar-weighted Nordic positions, aggregating $211.8 mm in market value, held in CrossingBridge portfolios as of 9/30/24 excluding short term and investment grade bonds (4 positions with market value of $39.5 mm as of 9/30/24) and stressed/distressed credit opportunities (11 positions with market value of $33.1 mm as of 9/30/24)."
    That is nearly $300M in Nordic bonds as of 9/30, a significant portion of total AUM. Anyone interested in the composition of each of the funds, pl visit the fund site. I superficially look at these funds occasionally and do not have a good knowledge of CB funds.
    Looking forward to the breakdown as of 10/31 (first month operation) of NRDCX into the three categories of Nordic bonds mentioned in the footnote.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Reaching for yield segment says stay away from high yield, rather take risk with equities.
    Pl share if you listened to the prognosis for next 10 yrs. It is 15 min long.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/25/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:35 Topics
    02:00 How Everything Could Change over the Next 10 Years
    17:52 The AI-Driven Multiple Expansion
    28:29 Reaching for Yield Like It's 2007
    35:00 Rise of the Bond Vigilantes
    44:06 Stock Picking Is Hard, Netflix Edition
    46:09 Are Workers Today Better off Than 50 Years Ago?
    Video
    Blog
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Thanks @linter. Sorry for the trouble.
    It is postmortem from me but is it possible to get around the rule by trying to buy in another account at Fidelity? I know the TF is a full $50. BTW, CBYYX is NTF at Schwab. Many here have accounts at both Fidelity and Schwab for a reason - neither of them are perfect - the irritations with each are different.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    Hi @yogibearbull
    Yes, absolutely dramatic. I've watched percentage changes in yields ranges as another view method; versus actual pricing.
    In the Treasury yield chart link I include; the UST 10 year shows the measure.
    --- Sept. 16 yield at 3.62%
    --- Oct. 25 yield at 4.25%
    This is a +17.4% change !!!
    Anyone here would be pleased with such an investment gain in this timeframe.
  • Arkansas Lithium Deposits - USGS
    There is a lithium mine in Nevada which the company exploiting it claims could meet our needs. I think it’s still getting off the ground as site approval is only two years old.
    https://lithiumamericas.com/thacker-pass/overview/default.aspx
    Ever since lithium became “the latest sure-fire investment” about 3 years ago, the price of the substance has been on the express down elevator. M* doggedly still assigns a 5 star rating to Lithium Americas stock.
  • stock selling below bid?
    Suppose an "all or none" limit order comes in to buy 100 shares at $50. Then you place a limit order to buy 130 shares at $50.
    30 shares come on the market that meet your $50 offer price. Your order is partially filled at $50, leaving a partial order open for 100 shares at $50. There is still an earlier placed order for 100 shares at $50.
    Now 100 shares come on the market with an offered price of $49.99. Who gets those 100 shares? The earlier all-or-none order or your partially filled order that you placed later?
    I don't know the answer to that, but ISTM that the earlier order should take precedence over yours.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections 'news'. North Korean troops training for combat in Ukraine, to join with Russian troops. HA!, and this report that the NK troops have been issued Serbian ID cards. Right! That should take care of who is who in Ukraine. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? AND overnight reports of strategic military facility strikes (aircraft) in IRAN. Actions are reported to be done, for now. Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
    W/E October 25 , 2024..... Bond NAV's Direction = Election + news
    --- I/we don't need to make any bond fund purchases at this time; but right now the bond sector may not be a buy until the dust settles from the elections, regardless of other factors; barring outright armed conflict. 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'DOWN' for this weeks pricing. Many bond sectors where negative for most of the week, with some price recovery on Thursday, and another attempt on Friday; which fizzled mid-day. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, there isn't much to smile about this week . The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 21 - October 25, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.66% yield. Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
    --- AGG = -.93% / +2.09% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.06% / +4.90% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.21% / +3.42% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.68% / +2.36% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.09% / +1.02% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.00% / +2.87% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.29% / +4.40% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.41% / +4.18% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.33% / -.31 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1.84% / -4.04% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.50% / -7.53% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -2.69% / -9.70% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +4.03% / 16.31% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -5.87% / -24.63% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.88% / +2.65% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -1.30% / +2.10% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.12% / +6.66% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.65% / +7.24% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -1.04%/+4.38% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.85% /+.92% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -1.18%/+6.40% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -.67% / +8.34% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -1.46% / +10.78% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.66% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    When I search Schwab for CSOIX I get no result, so I searched for "Credit Suisse Strategic Income" by name, and Schwab turns up "Credit Suisse Strategic Income A, CSOAX".
    That looks like the same fund, but shows a Max. Front Load of 4.75% with a note that says "* This fund is available without load at Schwab." Further info: No Transaction Fee; $49.95 Short-Term (90 days) Redemption Fee.
    Are we talking about the same animal here? Thanks...
  • Crossing Bridge Q3 Commentary
    "As we have discussed in prior letters, valuations remain rich. High yield bonds’ yield advantage over investment grade bonds is at very low levels, reminiscent of the 2005-07 period."
    Also, CB's Nordic Core value positions (30 dollar-weighted) have YTW of 10.1%.
  • Vanguard legacy mutual fund platform is closing the end of 2025
    ”Vanguard has also made its own nudges, including a $25 per fund fee for its direct fund legacy system last year, though that was waived for some clients with at least $5 million at the company.”
    Nice gesture. Those folks can use every penny they can save.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    @fred495 you are welcome. I’m surprised you would have to pay a load for BDMAX at your brokerage, as the brokerages I have experience with offers the fund load waived. Hopefully you can have access to institutional shares if you are interested in the fund.
    @BaluBalu I really just use the fund to help mitigate the volatility of my portfolio. It has been pretty steady, particularly as far alternative funds (which are often disappointing), so I have been sticking with it. I initially went into this fund and researching other market neutral or absolute return type funds to get what are (or what used to be) bond or bond fund-like returns while trying to diversify from bonds for those returns.
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    Agree @Old_Joe. I own them all, except WCPNX. I've been adding to bond funds since late 2023. CSOIX is a 5*, but maybe more meaningful it's a Great Owl, Steady trend lines are a big seller for me. THOPX is the newest addition. There's been a lot of positive press on the board about it. Hope I didn't jink it by adding it to the group.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    earlier in the week, at fidelity, i set up an auto invest plan for CBYYX, to avoid the fee. it was set to trade yesterday. i woke up to find that the trade had been cancelled. i called fidelity and finally was told that i had to wait 30 days after selling the fund before i could buy it again ... and i was at day 29, so no go. they told me to go read the prospectus, which i did and wherein a found:
    To limit the negative effects of excessive trading on the fund, the fund has adopted
    the following restriction on investor transactions. If an investor redeems $5,000 or
    more (including redemptions that are a part of an exchange transaction) from the
    fund, that investor shall be prevented (or “blocked”) from purchasing shares of the
    fund (including purchases that are a part of an exchange transaction) for 30 calendar
    days after the redemption. This policy does not apply to systematic purchase or
    withdrawal plan transactions...
    i tried pointing out that my buy order was part of a systematic purchase plan. they said it didn't apply.
    anyway: fyi
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    If M* can be trusted:
    WCPNX. ER = 0.65%
    -duration is out to 5.5 years, now. That smells more like intermediate-term.
    -risk, looking back 3 years: just 20 out of 100, on their proprietary scale.
    -LOW risk, HIGH returns.
    -zero in equities.
    0.97% in cash. So, fully invested.
    Weighted coupon =5.37.
    Securitized stuff in portfolio= 56.02% of total.
    gummint = 29.21%
    corporate = 13.77%
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wcpnx/portfolio
    I own it, and am growing it. Since I got in several weeks ago, it's been dead. Maybe I should not be so patient, but the sadistics and ratings (not just at Morningstar) look attractive. It fits into the frame of what I've been wanting to initiate in my taxable.