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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Has anyone checked on Cathie Wood yet today?
    Please don’t tempt me to buy some TSLA. Recently swore-off owning individual stocks or would wade in. Not sure why TSLA tumbled. A lot of folks who stayed away due to Musk’s participation in politics may gradually come back. Plus, Musk is devoting more time to the company. This divergence with the administration should be good for TSLA. The maga crowd isn’t much into electrics.
    My first thought today was that this was a “staged” battle to help TSLA recapture some lost customers. But it now appears too personal / ugly to be just that. If Musk’s ”Epstein Files” charge has legs, it might provide some cover for members of Congress who would like to stand up to power but currently are afraid to. (But that matter belongs in OT).
    This spat may be good for (“One-way”) Boeing. I’d probably buy that too if I weren’t currently on the wagon. Musk has threatened to decommission Space-X’s Dragon capsule that ferries astronauts to and from the ISS.
  • GENIUS Act has a sneaky gotcha for 'traditional' banking clients

    https://www.levernews.com/cryptos-new-bailout-fund-your-savings-account/
    Crypto’s New Bailout Fund: Your Savings Account

    The GENIUS Act would require banks to prioritize stablecoin owners over customers if there’s a financial collapse.

    Included in the legislation is a provision declaring that if a bank goes bankrupt or becomes insolvent, “the claim of a person holding payment stablecoins issued by the payment stablecoin issuer shall have priority over all other claims against the payment stablecoin issuer.”
    According to Georgetown Law professor Adam Levitin, who specializes in financial regulation, this essentially means that “if a bank custodian for a stablecoin issuer’s reserves ends up insolvent, the claims of the stablecoin investors will come ahead of the bank depositors.”
    So if a financial institution goes out of business, it will be legally obligated to first make stablecoin depositors whole, even if it means using what remains of other customers’ money.
    < - >

    The Genius Act also stipulates that even non-depository financial institutions that operate like banks, such as highly volatile money market funds, will have to prioritize stablecoin holders over other customers.

    < - >
    For a more thorough analysis, check this out from a white-shoe DC law firm:
    https://www.arnoldporter.com/en/perspectives/advisories/2025/06/incoming-stablecoin-legislation-stable-and-genius-acts
    ... I guess that's one way to get people to buy into cryptocurrency, eh?
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    I kind of wonder what is in the water supply in Atlanta after reading coverage of the latest Beige Book from the Fed. Dinky linky.
    According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.
    Business contacts across the country said consumers were not spending and described labor markets as “flat.”
    Summing things up, the report said that “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which has led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.”
    Reading the report from Atlanta, well, draw your own conclusions about the value of GDPNow.:YADL.
  • Has anyone checked on Cathie Wood yet today?
    Why would you follow Wood?
    Her fund AKRR lost money in 5 years and is way down from 2021. See chart.
    https://schrts.co/HtmUQPvd
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400.”
    Hmmm wonder if rono is selling any here.
    rono’s pretty smart. I’d imagine he’s already fled the country with his bounty before the government decides to confiscate all bullion and issue owners some form of “digital gold” instead.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400."
    Hmmm, wonder if rono is selling any here.
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    Forbes had an article on MP a while back.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2025/04/21/the-only-us-rare-earth-mine-may-win-big-from-trumps-china-tariffs/?ctpv=searchpage
    and another more recent look at rare earths and a couple of other companies
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimvinoski/2025/04/23/will-america-finally-set-a-sane-path-forward-for-rare-earth-elements/?ctpv=searchpage
    I have a small amount in MP and REMX VanEck Vectors Rare Earth Strategy which is 30% Chinese companies
    I was surprised neither took off with the latest fight over Rare Earths although MP seems to have some life recently.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Short-term / near-term data like this isn’t very helpful. I won’t fault FD for citing it because all of us mention short-term or near-term numbers from time to time, sometimes even noting day-to-day or month-to-month changes in stock averages (guilty as charged).
    Inflation going down? Tell that to bond traders or the gold market. While the latter trades a lot on emotion and is very erratic, the trend can’t be mistaken. In both cases (bonds & metals) the trend signals higher, not lower, inflation.
    5 years ago investors in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond were demanding a rate of 0.60% to buy. Now, they’re demanding around 4.40%. That reflects what they think they need to earn from a “risk-free” (not really) investment to keep up with inflation over the next decade. Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400. And the FX is telling a similar story with a recent fall in the dollar. On this one, the numbers are too recent to define a trend - but my guess is there is an emerging longer-term trend (ominous for inflation).
    I’d planned to cite some other commodities, but realized many were so distorted by the Covid period (like oil which got down to under $14) that they’re not worth citing. I won’t play politics. Neither side has an A+ on fighting inflation. And the issue is much more entrenched and complicated than what any one administration can solve. That’s not to argue the present one hasn’t made mistakes.
    Are we discussing inflation from an investment perspective (longer-term outlook and how to invest to stay ahead?) or from a political perspective (Has Trump caused more or less inflation than Biden?) The second doesn’t much help me. But the first is very helpful to understanding what funds / assets to own and which ones to avoid.
    From a 5-10 year investment perspective - with persistent or higher inflation
    Cash? It’s OK. Rates should roughly approximate inflation over time.
    Ultra-Short bond funds? Thumbs-up
    Longer-dated bonds? Thumbs-down
    1-3 year high quality bonds? Even-Steven. Probably OK. I own a slug of NEAR
    Junk bonds? Dunno. Don’t play in that park. I’d say to buy them when no one wants them.
    TIPS? Yes - With the qualification that they’re best directly held (not jerked around by fund flows). Randall Forsyth has a column in this week’s Barrons highly favorable. Read it.
    Cash + bond alternatives (like CVSIX, GDL, LPXAX)? Decent. Worth consideration.
    Precious metals? No way at my age. Pretty to look at. But too volatile & risky.
    Commodities / “real asset” funds? Yes. But only in moderation. Very cyclical.
    “Systematic” multi-asset approaches? - Worth holding as a diversifier. I own BAMBX.
    Equities? Depends which ones. I like broadly diversified / balanced funds with an international tilt.
    RPSIX? You have to be kidding. Look at its 10-year performance - and with a healthy slug of equities.
  • Morningstar - The Modern 529 Plan
    Hi @yogibearbull Thank you for the list and updates. The Secure Act 2 for 529's has been discussed here. We've pushed this plan to others for years. And we've recently taken advantage of the Roth rollover twice. This provision is a very nice bump to a young person's retirement program.
  • Morningstar - The Modern 529 Plan
    M* - The Modern 529 Plan

    Many limitations or deficiencies of 529 have been eliminated due to various legislations. Many 529 plans have also improved. But many people aren't familiar with these changes.
    Timeline
    2008 Heart Act
    Rollover of unused 529 to 529-ABLE (rules apply).
    2010 Small Business Jobs Act
    Temporary: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2014 Tax Increase Prevention Act
    Extension, 2014: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2015 Path Act
    Permanent: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA)
    $10K/yr for K-12 tuition.
    2019 Secure Act 1.0
    Limited student loan payments.
    Apprenticeship/vocational training expenses allowed.
    2022 Secure Act 2.0
    Limited Roth Rollovers.
    Employer match for 529 contributions.
    2024 FAFSA Simplification Act
    Grandparent 529 penalty removed.
    https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/modern-529-plan
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    Many people of means have hoped for a switch from income based federal taxation to consumption based taxation. This would not bode well with the majority of American people since the majority are working class who spend most of their income on consumption while people of means spend only a small fraction of their income on consumption. Tariffs, with their promise of generating/replacing taxes from income with taxes from "elsewhere", are easier to sell to the unaware than sales taxes. It's all a slight-of-tongue trick with the language of who "elsewhere" is and how a "tariff" differs from a sales tax. When people come to understand it may be too late. Hopefully the workers will still be entitled to union representation and be powerful enough to demand that wages rise to the level of covering the sales taxes, now called tariffs. Otherwise, consider your decendents being used to replace the immigrant worker class in America and increased poverty that is ignored and not subsidized by taxes. I imagine that, if EITC weren't really a subsidy to low wage businesses, they would be on the chopping block too.
    I wonder how high tariffs need to go to eliminate the top three or four income tax brackets? (or vastly broaden the bands, which is harder to guess)
    Found it! I knew G.Bush's Tax Commission had an estimate of the flat tax type rate. Here it is:
    Simple, Fair, and Pro-Growth: Proposals to Fix America’s Tax System
    Report of the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform November 2005
    The Treasury Department estimated that a Flat Tax imposed on a broad consumption
    tax base would require a 21 percent tax rate to preserve revenue neutrality.
    By the way - Chapter 9 of the report estimates that the replacement with a retail sales tax would be 22% and has graphs showing the replacement increasing taxes on lower incomes while reducing taxes on higher incomes. Other scheme, such as VAT, are also discussed in the report.
    Another edit for 2005 perspective:
    In 2005, 2.1539T in revenues, and 2.4722T in expenditures
    Table 1.3—SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS (–) IN CURRENT DOLLARS, CONSTANT (FY 2000) DOLLARS, AND
    AS PERCENTAGES OF GDP: 1940–2011
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    There are (at least) two different concerns raised here:
    1) Staffing shortages in the federal government (not just in BLS) affect the ability of the government to do its job. Ditto @crash 's comment.
    2) Lower sampling of data (whether price data as here or other data in different arenas) increases the uncertainty in the accuracy of the average of the samples. Sampling is never exact. (Well, unless you "sample" 100% of the data points.)
    The fewer the number of samples taken, the greater the uncertainty. One often hears of polls reporting some result +/- a couple of percent. Those polls also report a certain level of confidence, typically 95%. That means that 95% of the time such a sampling it taken, the true average falls within the +/- range of the sample's average.
    https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/confidence-interval/
    Take fewer samples, fill in the gaps differently, and that uncertainty range increases. Though taking fewer samples doesn't necessarily skew the sampling result one way or the other. Hence the decrease in quality (accuracy) as reported, but not bias.
    Detmeister said it is impossible to tell whether the reliance on different-cell estimates [gap-filling] skewed the data in one direction or the other.
    “When you take a sample and reduce the numbers, it’s going to increase the sampling error.”
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (41.4%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.9%, below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (32.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (171+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+10 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.85% (positive). Gold-miners rallied. Private sector jobs were weak (ADP). Slow progress on trade deals. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2023/thread
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    "The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week
    that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses
    where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians
    had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past."

    "Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports.
    There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics.
    But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economists-raise-questions-about-quality-of-us-inflation-data/ar-AA1G5yqt
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    @kings53man- OK, "collected by the government"... I'm with you.
    Ummm... next question: Paid by who?
    Ummm... Answer: the American people. That would include you, yes? Be sure to let us know how things are going at Walmart.
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    @kings53man
    You, I, everyone will be paying for that (import tax). So, one is really paying the government an additional pass through tax. I'll thank you in advance; and don't forget to start watching the prices at Walmart and other stores, eh?
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    @Sven- yes, that's true. But @kings53man said: "gut environment regulations".
    Typical of the present White House administration.
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    @kings53man said: "Some of the materials are radioactive that makes the refining expensive and subjected to strict environmental regulations> We can do this, gut environment regulations and get this on fast track."
    Good plan. I vote they build a facility in your backyard.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    @lynnbolin. I have been watching Global Wellesley but have not pulled the trigger because of the almost six year duration of the substantial bond portfolio. With all the uncertainty surrounding the bond market that seems an issue. Your thoughts?
    @larryB. In general, estimates of inflation from the Federal Reserve and OECD are that inflation will be above 3% this year and falling slightly next year, while The Conference Board has lower inflation this year and rising next year. Duration risk is a legitimate concern, but it matches the benchmark of 6 years. Secondly, Global Wellesley keeps about 52% invested in corporate bonds which may add a little risk compared to the category. The budget proposal adds to the national debt which is a risk for longer-term US rates. Most of the fixed income that I manage for the intermediate term is in short-term bonds including investment grade.
    What I like about Global Wellesley is that only 39% is invested in the US with much of the rest in Europe. 14.4% of the credit is invested in the US government. I bought Global Wellesley for its conservative global exposure.
    Here are some associated articles:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vgyax/quote
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vgyax#portfolio-composition
    https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html?adestraproject=Economics Department News&amp;utm_campaign=EO-June2025&amp;utm_content=june-eo-chart&amp;utm_term=eco&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=Adestra