Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    2011 was a long time ago.
    Post-GFC, gold rallied hard and both gold and gold-miners peaked in 2011. Yep, people who bought then are still looking to get even.
    Then both were trashed.
    For years, it looked as if 2,000-2,100 was a ceiling for gold, but it broke out of that in March 2024. Factors contributing to the gold rally include Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, global moves away from dollar due to aggressive US dollar-diplomacy, central bank gold purchases, rapidly rising US debt, etc.
    But as gold has rallied to new highs, gold-miners are still priced as if gold was around 2,000 - check 2010-11, 2020 and 2022.
    So, either gold-bullion is overvalued now, or gold-miners are undervalued. I am betting on the latter. Watch $XAU around 164 bow; its 2010-11 peak was 225+.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Berkshire sold its BYD stake down to 5% from more than 20%, after holding it since 2008 (bought initially for approx $1 a share). That made me think may be battery technology does not have as much a future as is needed for non-nuclear renewable energy or may be he sold because he thought as a Chinese company, it could face headwinds in the global markets. OR both reasons. Obviously, I do not take his official reasoning on its face value. He bought and sold TSM quickly on questionable US-China relations, which I understood.
  • Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/803020/000121390024088378/ea0217674-01_497.htm
    497 1 ea0217674-01_497.htm 497
    THE OBERWEIS FUNDS
    (The “Trust”)
    Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund
    OBEMX
    OIEMX
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 17, 2024
    TO PROSPECTUS, SUMMARY PROSPECTUS and
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED MAY 1, 2024
    IMPORTANT NOTICE
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has determined to terminate and liquidate the Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund (the “Fund”). Shareholders who do not sell their shares of the Fund before the effective date under the Plan of Termination and Liquidation, currently expected to be November 18, 2024, will receive a liquidating distribution in cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares. Thereafter, the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved, and all references to the Fund herein shall be removed.
    Effective as of the close of business on October 17, 2024, the Fund is closed and will not accept any purchase orders. In connection with the termination of the Fund and as the Fund’s investment adviser deems appropriate, the Fund will begin the process of liquidating its portfolio securities and shareholders should be aware that the Fund will not be pursuing its stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purpose of winding up its affairs.
    Prior to November 18, 2024, shareholders of the Fund may continue to exchange shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other Oberweis Fund. Any shares redeemed or exchanged prior to November 18, 2024 will not be subject to a redemption or exchange fee.
    For taxable shareholders, the liquidating distribution will generally be treated as a redemption of shares and such shareholders may recognize a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes. Shareholders should consult with their tax advisors for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to investments in the Fund.
    Effective November 1, 2024, James W. Oberweis is the Portfolio Manager of the Fund. Accordingly, all references to the prior portfolio manager are deleted in their entirety and replaced with Mr. Oberweis. In addition, page 22 of the Statement of Additional Information is updated to provide that Mr. Oberweis beneficially owned over $1,000,000 of the Fund as of September 30, 2024. This includes shares held by Oberweis Asset Management, Inc. and Oberweis Securities, Inc., of which Mr. Oberweis is a controlling shareholder.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    For more information, please call The Oberweis Funds at 1-800-245-7311.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
    SMRs will allow decentralized infrastructure, increasing national security, lower Grid costs, etc. lots of benefits and practical.
    If SMR (Small modular reactors) take off, then what is the future for all the EV car companies, which is really a play on innovations in battery technology. E.g., Tesla, BYD, etc.?
    I am waiting Berkshire Energy to get into SMRs.
    Disclosure: I own NLR.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Time to move to Vanguard Treasury MM, VUSXX, 7 day yield of 4.85% from 3mo Treas Bills at 4.65% (after today's rise of 2 bps) & USFR?
    Fidelity Treasury Only MM (FDLXX) at 4.51% - come on Fidelity.
  • MRFOX
    @Derf It's available at Fido and Schwab. $49.95 TF tho.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/16/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/16/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (45.5%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.5%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.2%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +20.1% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (138+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (53+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 75.84% (overbought). Unusually rare positive Sept followed by strong Oct (so far). Then, good seasonality Nov 1 - Apr 30. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1703/thread
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Funds don't make this easy, but it's possible to figure out from prospectus whether a fund accrues dividends daily and pays monthly (from an accrual account), or the dividends are flowed-through the NAV.
    In the latter case, there will be some language in the prospectus alerting that the fund NAV will be reduced on ex-dividend date, and possibly to avoid buying the (taxable) dividend just ahead of the ex-div date. If such language is missing, then the fund likely accrues daily but pays monthly - and the NAV doesn't change due to dividend payout on ex-dividend date.
    Another way to figure this out is looking at the actual-prices for _TICKER in Stockcharts and see if there are dips on ex-distribution dates.
    Most bond mutual funds accrue daily and payout monthly. An example is PIMIX where no dips are seem on ex-div dates (but only market fluctuations),
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=PIMIX&id=p65542786213&compare=_PIMIX&perf=false
    It isn't easy to find bond funds that flow dividends through the NAV (most hybrid & equity funds do so). But CBLDX is mentioned, so let's check it out - one can see unmistakable dips in NAV on ex-div dates.
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=CBLDX&id=p04828864147&compare=_CBLDX&perf=false
    Another example is USFR (most/all? eTF dividends flow-through the NAV),
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=USFR&id=p67039130505&compare=_USFR&perf=false
  • OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND
    d
    @ducrow - You are correct that HBLIX is a bit more conservative than LOGIX. It holds considerably more fixed income / bonds and a lesser amount of equities. Both look like decent funds. “Year-over-year” LOGIX is up 21.74% (M*) while HBLIX is up “only” 18.91%. Both have been hot. So how much real risk reduction? Your plan might resemble leaping from the red hot frying pan into the bubbling stew pot. A bit cooler …..
    Sounds like the contemplated switch is based in part on the premise that interest rates will continue falling. Maybe they will … Personally, I’m not too sure about that. It’s not the Fed or politicians that will ultimately determine longer term interest rates (a popular misconception). It’s things like government debt-load, inflation, economic growth / recessions, geo-politics (including wars), the dollar on the foreign exchanges and “black swans” like the recent global pandemic. A 10-year bond at just over 4% seems very low to those of us here who came of age in the 70s when mortgages were running 15+%.
    I don’t think you can go wrong adding to cash after a couple very hot years. I also like a toe-hold in the precious metals - however they’ve been bid up a lot lately and could suffer a big correction. There’s not much out there that looks cheap to me right now in either fixed income or equities. Use a portfolio analyzer as one gage of where you are on the risk spectrum.
    I note you own DODBX. Excellent fund. I owned it for many years before finally selling a year or so ago as part of a “consolidation” of assets under one umbrella.
    Re Mike’s remark. if you type a fund’s symbol in capital letters the board’s software automatically highlights it and creates a link to a variety of sources. Good idea. I hadn’t paid much attention to that since I dwell mainly at the M* site and don’t mind entering symbols manually.
    Good luck.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Litner, the system forced me to do the sell first.
    MSF, I usually sell the whole position, I believe in very concentrated portfolio of just 2-3 funds.
    Funds that I see a potential, I sell minus 2 shares per account and why I don't know the final amount.
    But, I trade bond funds and in most cases I buy at 99% at "normal" markets. In a very risky market I go to MM and I buy at 95%.
    The whole MM business is mostly irrelevant for me because I'm usually invested at 99+%. I trade one fund, not MM, for another fund. This is where Schwab shines over Fidelity where you can buy only 90% and must call a broker. That missing day of just 0.1% in 2-3 accounts can easily be worth at least $1000+1500 per year. This is a major part of my system, and what annoys me most at Fidelity.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    As of now, DJT is up 15% for the day. As @hank mentioned, I would look at the betting sites more than this stock price as a sentiment indicator.
  • OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND
    I'm 70. Officially OLD. Are not DODBX and HBLIX a bit more like each other, compared to WBALX? I just threw that one into the mix. And Morningstar doesn't always label and align things very well. I own WBALX. Performance-wise, HBLIX and WBALX are in the same 5-year ballpark. DODBX outruns the other two over 5 years, but it is not avowedly "conservative" or even "moderately conservative." Of the three, WBALX holds the highest bond quality. HBLIX offers the highest yield among them. (Morningstar.) Anyhow, how many different AA/balanced funds does a person need? If you've decided to make a switch toward less beta and volatility, I'd lose DODBX and replace it with one of the other two---assuming you've made your money, and growth is not any longer the highest priority. Never a bad time to act on your priorities, unless the Market is in turmoil. The Market's been volatile, but it's always a matter of degree. I would not call it turmoil, as the Indices march ever-upward.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Congrats to those here in the CLO bond ETFs. More specifically JAAA and PAAA in the investment grade hovering around 6% YTD with nary a drawdown. And JBBB and CLOZ in the below investment grade hovering around 8.5% YTD with just a blip. The blip occurred in early August on recession fears. I prefer holding an OEF equivalent which I have previously referenced. Also I have a quirk when it comes to OEF bond funds. I prefer the ones that pay daily vs. the ones that pay monthly. A reason I just sold off CBLDX. Great fund but another bond category has been steadily rising recently and prefer to park money there.
    Will be on a long posting sabbatical as the backcountry hiking season is just around the corner. Time to explore for new caves, rock shelters, arches, and waterfalls. At 77 I never know how many more years I will be able to handle the rigors and dangers of solo off trail explorations. As it is the rangers have a fit this elderly man is back there in the middle of nowhere. Not so much out of compassion for an injured hiker as for the logistics of a backcountry search and rescue, Also unable to respond to any private messages as I will not be signing here in much less checking in. Best of luck to all in their investing endeavors.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    @Derf, Reinvestment risk has arrived as the safe 5% yield CDs and money market are no longer exist. Unless 4% yield is acceptable to you, I think there are other viable choices.
    I track the short duration indices/funds such as MINT and SHY and invest in government and corporate bond index funds. The yields are in the range of 4.0-4.5%, and the total return % range about 4%.
    Intermediate duration bonds are as far as I would invest. Their yields are a bit lower but the bond prices will go up in the rate cut cycle through 2025. Here is where I moved $ to as CDs and T bill matured. So far so good.
    Some posters here prefer junk bonds which have done well this yield yields over 6%. Here you need to made your own decision. I prefer to strike a balance between risk and reward.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I listened to most of the Bloomberg interview. It lasted over an hour. I felt Micklethwait did a poor job fact-checking / holding Trump accountable on a variety of issues. I posted some of my reactions in off topic. Just my own observation. Others may / will disagree. The setting was in front of members of the “Chicago Economic Club” in Chicago. There was a pro-Trump bias in the audience from the start. But I do not think that materially affected the interview.
    What the news outlets seized on was Micklethwait’s holding Trump “to the fire” on issues surrounding his conversations with Vladimir Putin - particularly the issue of sending Putin covid testing equipment during the pandemic. Trump back-peddled a bit and refused to say whether or not he’d had any discussions with Putin. The media picked up on this as being inconsistent with his earlier flat denials. Yes, this could have moved the price of Trump Media today.
    I’m wondering if Trump Media might have been affected by today’s ruling by a Georgia judge that the Republican imposed “hand count” rule cannot be implemented. The process will revert back to that previously used. This is being viewed as a negative for Trump who might have benefited from the resulting chaos and delay. I just posted an excerpt re this ruling from the WSJ in off topic.
    You are right that gambling has nothing to do with elections. But we are a nation of gamblers. And I will tell you that the professional odds-makers are quite accurate. If they predict the total runs scored in a a BB game will be 7 or 9 or 5 chances are they are very close to the actual number. Don’t ask me how they know. I’d put the betting odds right up there with the polls as an indication of how the election might turn.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @msf If the remaining 5% is still sizeable, rinse and repeat. What do you consider sizeable ?
    How much risk and money is important is an individual preference. If I'm moving $100K from an investment to a non-sweep MMF, I'm not going to care about giving Schwab use of the entire $100K for a day. That's roughly (very roughly) $100K x 4% / 400 days = $10. Peanuts to many.
    What I personally care about is not the floating of some cash but in being out of the market for a day. If I sell $100K and wait a day to purchase a replacement security, especially if it is a lateral move (replacing one fund for another of the same type), I want that money continuously invested.
    Sure, the market might go down in that day and I'd be able to buy more shares. But it might also go up and I'd lose on the "exchange". I prefer to eliminate that market risk. If the market (funds in question) move even 1% in that day, that's $1K that I might lose or make depending on my luck that day. Four figure amounts look like real money to me.
    Again, it's a personal matter. I don't like putting money at risk, even with 50:50 odds, if I don't need to. Others don't care about such short term risks. I'm comfortable losing the price of a movie ticket ($10). I'm not thrilled at putting the price of two cross country round trip tickets at risk. (I'm cheap - I book economy, nonrefundable.)
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @msf If the remaining 5% is still sizeable, rinse and repeat. What do you consider sizeable ?
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Via Mediaite:
    Investors and day traders apparently did not like what they heard from former President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
    Trump gave a whirlwind interview with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday, during which the ex-president once again promoted tariffs as an economic panacea, slammed the Federal Reserve, gave irrelevant responses, and told his interlocutor, “You’ve been wrong all your life on this stuff.”
    The interview began at 12:49 p.m. ET and lasted until 1:53 p.m. ET. When it started, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group – the company that owns Trump’s Truth Social platform – were trading at $32.74 – above the opening price of $32.19. By the time Trump was done taking questions, the stock was down modestly to $31.89 before giving way to a precipitous downward move that saw the price bottom out at $25.16. About 90 minutes before the closing bell, shares rallied somewhat and ended the day at $27.06, losing $5.13 a share for the session. The wild moves prompted an automatic halt in trading on the NASDAQ.