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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Downside Of Knowing A Lot About Your Mutual Fund
    At the risk of appearing to be a spoil-sport here, I can see where the headline makes sense. I will admit to not reading the article, though it wasn't for lack of trying. I just don't have a paid subscription to WSJ. The article may have covered what follows, so if it does, cut me a little slack.
    When considering a new fund for our portfolios, how many of us here at MFO actually read the full prospectus cove-to-cover? My concerns are typically the fund's objective, long-term past performance, manager stability, and fund costs including ER and transaction fees if they apply. I use 'free' M*'s data regarding risk, upside/downside, mean return and standard deviation of returns. BTW, I have NO index funds; they're all actively managed. I'm willing to eat ER - within reason - on the upside IF the manager has proven his/her ability to shepherd on the down side.
    I seriously doubt that the average mutual fund investor - and my assumption is that most are investing through 401(k) and 403(b) plans - could not care less about "what's under the hood", and might find reading through a full prospectus as opposed to a fund's marketing one-page cut-sheet not only intimidating but pointless. Would adding a few lines that identified the Sharpe Ratio, the Sortino Ratio, or some other metric REALLY help the average investor, or would it lead to paralysis-by-analysis?
    One should not need a PhD in a STEM-related field to understand what one is buying and the risks/rewards associated with the product. I'm in favor of LESS BUT BETTER information. YMMV.
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tgunx/portfolio
    Seems to be just a different share class. TGUSX has ER which is -0.2% lower than TGUNX, and a tiny bit better returns so far, in 2019. Maybe that's a product of the lower ER? Entry for BOTH is $2,000.00 minimum. Curious.
  • Another Hit As The Trade War With China Heats Up
    The following is a current NPR news article. It has been lightly edited for brevity.
    Stocks continue to tumble around the world Monday after China allowed its currency to slide, in the latest sign of economic tensions between Beijing and Washington.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 600 points in midday trading, a drop of more than 2%. The blue chip index has fallen more than 5% from last month's all-time high, while the S&P 500 index lost ground for the sixth day in a row. Technology stocks such as Apple and IBM were hit especially hard.
    Earlier in the day, China allowed its currency, the yuan, to drop to more than seven per dollar, its weakest level in a decade.
    China also said it asked state-owned firms to stop buying U.S. agricultural products, Bloomberg reported. It's the latest blow to American farmers, who have seen prices fall sharply as a result of friction between the U.S. and its major trading partners.
    The decision to let the yuan fall was widely seen as an effort by China to stem the effects of President Trump's decision last week to impose stiffer tariffs on imports from China, which also sent stocks falling on Thursday.
    The decline makes Chinese imports to the United States less expensive, and thus makes U.S. companies less competitive. It also lowers profits for U.S. companies that do business in China. People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said China won't let the yuan become a casualty of the trade war. "I am fully confident that the yuan will remain a strong currency in spite of recent fluctuations amid external uncertainties," he said.
    Still, Trump's tariffs, coupled with the yuan depreciation, have left investors concerned that the trade war is spiraling out of control. As a result, investors poured money into safe assets such as government bonds, and the yield on U.S. Treasury debt fell to its lowest level since 2016.
  • When is the Right Time to Invest?
    unless you are retired then place everything in bonds
    The problem with putting 100% into “bonds” at retirement is that some of us may spend 30 or 40 years in retirement. Do you really want to settle for relatively low bond-like returns over all those years? The other problem with the statement is that “bond” can mean anything from “safe” U.S. Treasury bonds (yielding very little) to speculative C rated junk bonds having very high yields, high risk, and capital appreciation potential similar to that of equities.
    Ol’Skeet is correct. I see inflation near everywhere I look. Don’t forget that higher taxes, government imposed fees, and tariffs on imports constitute a form of inflation - as well as the aggregate CPI items. For the life of me I don’t understand the low inflation figures the govt. reports. Just replaced the top boards on my deck with new treated 2x6s. Couldn’t believe the cost of materials alone. The original deck went on the house the first year I was retired. Grateful I wasn’t invested 100% in bonds over those 20 years as the price of lumber was doubling or tripling.
    Best answer to those low govt. inflation figures is that technology has gotten cheaper. You can buy a 50”-60” color TV today for no more than a good 27” color set would have cost you 20-30 years ago. (But try munching on a TV for supper).
  • An "All-American" 9.7% Dividend Trading At A 16% Discount: (GAM)

    GAM's CAGR (ave annual return) since Jan 2010 is 9.89%. Vanguard's S&P fund returned a CAGR of 12.97%. So "Mikey" at Forbes has provided an "income" idea by sacrificed almost 25% of the total return by owning GAM. GAM may be a "stockpicker's" vehicle, but the stockpicker is generating negative alpha...
    Per CEFconnect, GAM distributed $2.25 during 2018. -- Or about 6.2% of GAMs price on 8/2/19. All of it paid on a single calendar day in December. Now 6.2% is a pretty good "yield", but most income-oriented investors prefer to be paid monthly, or at least quarterly. And, of that $2.25 distribution, the overwhelming amount was from L/T cap gains. L/T cap gains are not reliably predictable. And moreover, if an income investor spends those cap gains, he is "eating his seed corn". An investor in SPY could just harvest a few shares and distribute the proceeds to himself, and do better than GAM. The actual income disty was a puny $0.30. Embarrassing.
    Mikey also cites GAM as having "lower volatility". Portfoliovisualizer indicates GAM has experienced 117% of the volatility of the S&P. The same source indicates GAM had a bigger drawdown AND a worse "worst year" than the S&P.
    It appears that every material assertion which Mikey makes about GAM is factually wrong. The advice Mikey is tossing out their for public consumption is Kr@p. Forbes should be sued for financial malpractice.
  • Retirement strategies
    @Catch 22. Yes, that makes sense. Sounds like an interesting visit to the Virgin Islands. :) Yes, Az is off the table. Yet another change in the works for the people we were going to join out there, and it makes no sense to literally live our lives following them around. But since the Mom in that AZ family will need female surgery in October, my wife will stay behind to babysit and cook and keep house for a few months, in AZ. Then the Mom will pay for my wife's air ticket to Hawaii. Sounds good to me. And in the meantime, we still have a houseguest here in MA who is a colleague, but looking for a fresh start, career-wise. AND his 14 year old dog. Sweet, adorable. .....And she (dog) has shown me that I never, ever want to own a pet. ;)
  • Retirement strategies
    @Crash
    You noted: "Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?....."
    Island living.....Virgin Islands, etc. Always been expensive, except for some local products.....perhaps?
    Don't recall exactly, but visiting family in the Virgin Islands 40 years ago, and one of the best Cruzan Rums available was about $1.00 for a tall bottle. A six pack of Coke for mix was about $2.50. These price ratios pretty much remain in tact to day.
    Side story: St. Croix, V.I. Was there during a period of a small city parade. Fairly normal small town anywhere; with school marching bands, small floats being pulled by tractors, candy being thrown to the kids, AND 6 decorated flat bed trucks representing the rum distillers on the island............you guessed it. These flat beds moved along the road very slowly, and the adults could walk along the float and order their FREE favorite drink mix; as long as it contained RUM. Coca Cola, coconut milk mix.....whatever. The kids ended the day with a sugar buzz and some of the adults ended with a BUZZ, period. The most unique parade we've every attended.
    I presume you've searched a cost of living comparison site for Hawaii.
    Apparently the Arizona move is off the table, eh?

    Global Cost of Living Index
    Columns may be sorted between high and low costs.
    Wish you all well, if you choose to make the move.
  • Retirement strategies
    I retired in 2012. But wife is younger and continues to work. I'm still in my family home until the pending sale is finalized. We could stay, owe no rent or mortgage payment, and just pay the taxes. But not after the most recent time I became a crime victim. So, we moved up our timetable and we'll be out by mid-October. For the record: do not even think about moving to Springfield, Massachusetts. Guns, drugs, gangs, murder, theft. I lament what this city has become over the years.
    Our solution: moving in with cousins in a dream destination: Hawaii. The cost of living is considerably higher, but by sharing the housing expense (and food and cable) it's quite manageable. We've visited and spent time before, so we have a good feel for the environment. Taxes on retirees are not bad. I think I'll buy a bus pass. I'm not sure if I can use it all the way into Honolulu without an extra charge, but just about everything I need can be obtained on the Windward side of Oahu, where we're headed: Kaneohe.
    This is not research or strategy, but it's well thought-out. "Fish and relatives stink after three days." Yes. Unless they're paying half the rent. ;) Utilities in that apartment are included, too. That simplifies things, as well. Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?.....
    ...Wifey will work. My SS and pension together will keep us comfortable, in any case. I just turned 65. I might just wait for the day when RMDs are required, to tap into my Trad. IRA. My accountant tells me I've got $5,000.00 of non-taxable, non-deductible IRA dollars still sitting in the account. He advises taking $1,000 or $2,000 at a time, if I choose to go that route.
  • Retirement strategies
    Here’s another:
    http://retirementoptimizer.com (There are pdf copies of his book floating around on the internet)
    You should be commended for wanting to plan 10 yrs out. I am 2 yrs in and still don’t have a plan. However, I do keep thinking - for 35 yrs I’ve told my wife “don’t buy that you’ll need that money later” and for 35 yrs she’s rolled her eyes and bought it anyway. Well so far, all that eye rolling was justified, later has never come and it doesn’t look like it will.
  • Lewis Braham: The Best Time To Buy And Sell An Exchange Traded Fund: 30,000 Links
    @Lewis: I still enjoy playing poker and watching sports on TV.”
    @Ted, Don’t forget to watch the Cubs today. They’re at the top of the NL Central. Playing a pretty good team in the Brewers.
    Whatever you do - don’t go near the toxic Tigers. They’re now 34 games back, in the cellar of the AL Central. And their new announcers stink after 16-year veterans Rod Allen & Mario Impemba got booted last season following a physical altercation (over a chair). You’d think that with all the $$ they were getting paid to watch baseball they could have at least pretended to like each other?
    A couple links to that story:
    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/09/06/rod-allen-had-mario-impemba-choke-hold-during-fracas-after-detroit-tigers-game/1211612002/
    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/01/13/ex-tigers-broadcaster-rod-allen-talks-fight-mario-impemba/2564597002/
  • Investors Are Usually Wrong. I’m One Of Them
    FYI: Forget about getting everything right. Most people are so consistently wrong that merely avoiding major errors is enough to set you apart from the pack.
    That is the message in the latest data from Dalbar, a Massachusetts research firm that has been studying the behavior of mutual fund investors for 25 years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/your-money/stock-bond-investing.html?rref=collection/timestopic/Mutual Funds&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection
  • An "All-American" 9.7% Dividend Trading At A 16% Discount: (GAM)
    FYI: There’s an intriguing trend showing up in second-quarter earnings. And today I’ll show you how you can jump on it with a cheap closed-end fund (CEF)—I’m talking a 16% discount here.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2019/08/03/an-all-american-9-7-dividend-trading-at-a-16-discount/#49b8d2b36461
    GENERAL AMERICAN INVESTORS was established in 1927; it hadn’t fully deployed its capital in 1929, which helped it survive. In 1931, it nearly died as the market languished. That year “was way worse than 1929,” relates Jeff Priest, a former hedge fund chief and arbitrageur who took over as manager in 2012. He is only General American’s sixth manager.
    General American is another stockpicker’s fund: It has an active share of 82, and its largest 10 positions account for nearly a third of its portfolio. They include retailer TJX Co s. (TJX), reinsurer Arch Capital (ACGL), waste-services company Republic Services (RSG), Microsoft, and Nestlé (NESN.Switzerland).
    Priest follows a growth-at-a-reasonable price philosophy, looking to invest for three to seven years with corporate managers who are good capital allocators. “A high- quality investment depends on how the management team generates cash and redeploys it,” says Priest, 54, who learned about capital allocation from his father, Bill Priest, the Barron’s Roundtable member who has written authoritatively about shareholder yield.
    The fund yields 10%; it has repurchased shares when they trade at a discount of at least 8%. Through September, it had bought back 23.5 million common shares; there are still 27 million outstanding. It also is repurchasing preferred stock.
    General American has a relatively high expense ratio of 1.2%, but it also trades at an 18% discount. As Priest describes it, “that’s almost 17 years of forward investment management costs.” Indeed, Priest himself buys shares annually “because I get to have a dollar of assets for 82 cents—a long-term compound over my lifetime and the children’s.” Priest’s family owns 149,442 shares, worth about $5 million. That discount creates opportunities for new closed-end shareholders. At the moment, says Priest, “people are excited about deregulation and lower taxes. My own feeling is we [the market] have been going along for eight years and haven’t boiled over. If you made a basic assumption that equities discount nominal gross domestic product, you have an opportunity set in front of you that is beneficial.”
    ( Source Barron's Article Leslie P. Norton January 7, 2017)
    General American Investors Website
    http://www.generalamericaninvestors.com/
    M* Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/gam/quote
    CEFA.Com Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.cefa.com/FundSelector/FundDetail.fs?ID=2046
    CEF Connect.Com Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GAM
  • Lewis Braham: The Best Time To Buy And Sell An Exchange Traded Fund: 30,000 Links
    @Lewis: With CHF and COPD, I don't get around like I once did ; however, I still enjoy playing poker and watching sports on TV. " That's a lot of links" you stated, I had close to 40,000 on the old FundAlarm site going back to 1997.
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • When is the Right Time to Invest?
    @_OldSkeet - hi sir. Have not thought about inflation too much. for my private portfolio most new monies-div montly been buying mostly equities, ~20s% to HY private bonds [like verizon, CIM, 88163VAD1, sprint bonds, Darden restaurants [237194AE5] for YTM >5.5%. Higher yield may offset inflation. Just have a short fuse of know when to sell and have your google.com/alerts on 'darden bankrup' and sell when you think bad things may happen. We held darden resturants [couple like redlobsters dont think will bankrup] 237194AE5 > 2.5 yrs and and love that bond, gave us 3 or 4k every time they have Divs 8.15 and 2/15
    longhorn cheddars capital grill are some of favorite restaurants in Texas. Too bad they sold redlobsters divisions away
    gap
    alcoa
    HP
    energy bonds
    couple of infrastructures /freeway systems in Dallas/Austin because we know those areas well
    these are some of the bonds we hold
    Plus we don't worry too much if market not doing too well, has good hedge w/ bonds and high-yield dividend stocks, preferred stocks
  • You are paying attention to bond yields, yes?
    @AndyJ et al
    Usually a decent overview and thoughts regarding credit markets and debt issues related. If you've a few extra minutes in the schedule, have a view.
    Bloomberg Real Yield program, Aug. 2 (22 minute video)
    Good evening,
    Catch
    Right on, @Catch. I usually watch over the weekend; it's live on Friday. I posted a link to it on MFO a while back, in fact. I like how Jonathon facilitates and gets so much out of the pro participants.
  • Retirement strategies
    Derf, I do not see a link to the article or its name. Could you try again, please?
    Until @Derf gets back from lunch, these links might help. The February / March 2919 AARP Magazine references a 5-year retirement planner/check-list. By Googling different years (1-5) it may be possible to bring each year up separately (or all together).
    - Here’s an overview of the full AARP edition for February/MAR 2019: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/inside-the-februarymarch-issue-of-aarp-the-magazine-2019-02-07
    - Here’s their one-year check-list: https://www.aarp.org/retirement/planning-for-retirement/info-2019/1-year-countdown.html
    While the AARP materials leave me wanting, their suggestion to “test drive” the retirement budget a year ahead is invaluable - like testing the waters (and checking for crocodiles) before diving in.
  • Retirement strategies
    Although the request is for books on the subject of retirement funding; I thought I'd post on how I managed my parents money after they retired and now what I'm doing that I'm retired. I'm by no means saying this is right for everyone ... It is what I'm doing and I thought it might provide some ideas for others to think on.
    I made an adjustment to my asset allocation back in the 4th quarter of 2018 as I felt that equity valuations were becoming streached plus the yield curve inverted. For now, I'm rocking along at about 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity which I call my all weather asset allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns. For the week the S&P 500 Index pulled back 3.1% while my portfolio declined 1.3%. Year to date I have the equally weighted S&P 500 Index up 17.4% while I'm up a little better than 11%.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabelize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash savings, money market mutual funds (AMAXX, GBAXX & PCOXX) and CD's.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are ISFAX, PONAX & JGIAX. Currently, the portfolio has a yield of about 3.25% with a distribution yield, which includes capital gain distributions, north of 5%.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide which overtime offsets the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are NEWFX, SVAAX, SPECX.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been leaving the residual for new investment opportunity. In this way principal grows over time. And, as principal grows so do the distributions.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet