Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • welcome to the discussion a/k/a help board for MFO's premium tools
    Putting in LC x 3 (meaning all types), 15y for age and tenure, 1% ER or lower, Risk 1,2,3, and everything else No or Any.
    Getting no results.
    Must be misunderstanding something here.
  • The Best Mutual Funds To Buy Right Now!
    While I tend to agree with you, on the flip side there are people like Bill Miller ...
    No not this Bill Miller: (Amex commercial : Do you know me? - sorry, no video)
    But Bill Miller of LMVTX, when it was called Legg Mason, he of the 15 year S&P-beating record. Perhaps it's 20/20 hindsight, but he's been described as "the poster boy for star managers letting their egos take over while their performance suffers, believing that they can somehow bend the market to the power of their will and their investment style."
    I'd throw another Bill into that select group: Gross. The Fidelity managers you named seem different, at least in the sense that they're not so self-promoting. But as I said, hindsight is perfect.
  • Grandeur Peak reduces expenses on two funds
    The link was missing the lead 'h' in http - corrected below
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580215000101/grandeurpeakfeecapfootnoteup.htm
    This is a technical correction. The original read:
    "Fee Waiver ... to 1.70% and 1.95% of ... the Fund's Investor Class Shares and Institutional Class Shares, respectively."
    The corrected version (here) reads:
    "Fee Waiver ... to 1.95% and 1.70% of ... the Fund's Investor Class Shares and Institutional Class Shares, respectively."
    Get out your magnifying glasses :-)
  • The Breakfast Briefing: What To Expect From Earnings In 2016
    I'm thinking as reported earnings are going to increase on a TTM basis by about six to eight percent over the current year from about the ($96.00 range) to about the ($104.00 range) for 2016. According to S&P reported earnings for the S&P 500 Index for 2014 came in at $102.31.
    Is it not interesting how most forward estimates failed to materialize and missed their original mark by being revised downward as we moved through 2015? And, are actually currently back of their 2014 finishing number!
    However, I am thinking 2016 reported earnings will be better than those of 2015. Again, I'm thinking, there will be about a six to eight percent increase in reported earnings over those of 2015.
    Where the S&P 500 Index finishes 2016 will depend on how much investors are willing to pay for earnings. I am not expecting much ... and, project a fifty two week high to reach somewhere perhaps around the 2240-2250-2260 range. This should keep the TTM P/E Ratio somewhere around the 21.5 range ... and, still a little overvalued by my thinking based upon the Rule of Twenty.
  • What Equity Sectors Are You Considering Overweighting in 2016?
    I have been reviewing my portfolio's sector weightings as 2015 is coming to a close. Each year I like to pick three sectors that I think might do well in the coming year and that I should strive to overweight within my portfolio by selecting some mutual funds that are overweight these selected sectors. To do this I study what I own and what adjustments might be necessary to achmploish this by using Moringstar's Instant Xray analysis. For the coming year I have chosen to overweight financials, technology and energy.
    For me, I have the sectors in the S&P 500 Index divided into seven major and four minor sectors. The minor sectors would be materials, real estate, communication services and utilities. The major sectors would be consumer cyclical, financial, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive, and healthcare. I strive to maintain a weighting in the minor sectors of at least five percent each and the major sectors of nine percent each. This leaves about seventeen percent that can be moved around from these base weightings to overweight sectors of my choice and to also allow for some movement from these base weightings.
    In addition, form a style cap orientation perspective, I favor about a sixty five percent weighting to large caps, 25% to mid caps and 10% to small caps; and, from a world region perspective, I favor about 60% to the Americas, 25% Greater Europe and 15% to Greater Asia.
    With this, I am wondering what others might be thinking of doing within their own portfolio(s) for 2016?
  • Grandeur Peak reduces expenses on two funds
    I don't think this is actually a reduction. GPEOX currently has an expense ratio of 1.82% (as of August 31, according to Grandeur Peak's website), so setting the cap at 1.95% means there is no change in the expense ratio. Similarly, GPROX's current expense ratio is 1.34%, which is also below the cap of 1.60%.
    Are they expecting expenses to go up significantly in the near future, such that they'll hit the cap?
  • Morningstar $69 One year special
    Related to X-ray is portfolio tracking. See thread: "Buy and Sell transactions History".
    If all you want is a static watchlist (which is good enough for me, since I don't trade much), then perhaps the limited M* services that T. Rowe Price provides for free suffice. If you want the ability to add transactions, M* provides a porfolio manager (as contrasted with its watchlist).
    It doesn't seem to be easy to find a free service providing IRR (as opposed to time weighted returns). Perhaps Icarra? AAII (Oct 2015) wrote that M*'s portfolio tracker "is our Editor’s Choice in the portfolio tracking and optimization category."
    In 2012, AAII also lauded M*'s services, and in comparing them with two other trackers, Wikinvest (now SigFig) and SmartMoney (Wiki made the top 4 cut in 2015), noted that M* was the only one of the top 3 (for 2012) to calculate IRR. But for much of the rest, it looks like Wiki/SigFig might work.
  • vanguard fund distributions
    That's the page for tax filing information (i.e. not estimates). The Vanguard estimate link for its capital gains dividends was posted in the 2015 cap gains distributions estimates announcement thread.
    It is: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/preliminary-capital-gains-112015
    You're right that there's been no update, though on that page Vanguard promises to provide final estimates (including income dividend estimates) in early December. The month is still young.
  • vanguard fund distributions
    So as of 12/5/2015, Vanguard has still not published distribution estimates for its funds (via link below). Not sure if anyone has anymore info about this.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/taxcenter/tax-information-vanguardfunds
    Year-end Vanguard fund distributions link doesn't open
  • Morningstar $69 One year special
    Without premium membership, are you getting details about duration, or just a magic number?
    Here's a good writeup from Vanguard: Distinguishing Duration from Convexity
    "[W]e offer this brief paper as a fundamental, rather than a comprehensive, overview of the topic ... Duration ... captures only one aspect of the relationship between bond prices and interest... some bonds, such as callable bonds and mortgage-backed securities, have negative convexity at lower interest rate levels. ...
    "During the period from October31, 2007, through March 31, 2010, the duration of the GNMA portfolio— ... was significantly more volatile than that of the Treasury portfolio even though the initial durations were approximately the same. This difference in duration is due in part to the negative convexity of GNMA bonds rate changes."
    The M* analyst writeups won't give you all this detail either. But they often highlight significant factors in bond fund portfolios so that you know more of what to expect of the fund's reaction to market changes. The Vanguard piece also helps explain why I'm interested in knowing things like use of interest only bonds and why I repeatedly assert that investing in mortgage bonds in particular is not as simple as looking at duration and yield.
  • Vanguard Whistleblower Could Get Billions In Tax Dodge Complaint
    Nice summary.
    I've given some thought to the reporter's comment following the piece that in theory an investor could come out ahead tax-wise if Vanguard had to pay taxes. (We're coming up on tax season, what else is one going to think about ... Christmas?) It's unlikely that an investor could benefit, but that is not impossible.
    If the Vanguard Group (management company) is required to make a profit, suppose a fund now has to pay the Vanguard Group an extra $100 for profit. The fund will pay expense this out of nonqualified income (if any) that would otherwise have been distributed to investors. (That's the way all fund expenses are handled by all fund companies.)
    Say that the Vanguard Group's blended tax rate (for all the profits it now makes) comes out to 20%. (Marginal corporate tax rate is 35%, but few companies actually pay that.)
    Say that the investor pays 40% on ordinary income, and 20% on cap gains.
    The investor would have paid 40% on that $100 in nonqualified dividends, leaving $60. Instead, the $100 now gets paid to the Vanguard Group. The Vanguard Group pays $20 in taxes and distributes $80 as a qualified dividend to the fund. The fund then distributes the $80 in qualified income to the investor, who pays 20%, and is left with $64. A win!
    I had to make a lot of questionable assumptions, especially about tax rates, and I could still barely thread the needle to make the investor come out ahead. But it is theoretically possible.
  • MLP post
    @Junkster Agree. Corporate junk is actually in a lot more distress than I think many (most?) people believe. Specifically,
    http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/02/distress-in-corporate-debt-spikes-to-september-2009-level/
    Just look at the distress ratios for some of the sectors that haven't been mentioned yet in the news. Not insignificant, and they're growing. So much of it is unsecured, or subordinated; in the event of a default, investors will get very little in recovery.
  • MLP post
    And ETE down over 57% from its earlier high this year and EPD down 40% on top of the aforementioned KMI 62%. Not affecting my junk munis whatsoever though. I had said that just maybe the so called experts will be proven prescient in their call for a bloodbath in the junk corporate market. I get leery when too many are making the same call though. But the action in corporate junk compared to equities and junk munis, the latter hitting historical highs on a total return basis just this past Wednesday, is downright nasty. The default rate among smaller gas and oil producers just keeps piling up. As mentioned previously, for now would not touch the junk corps with a ten foot pole. Januaries are by far junk's best month historically so anxious to see what that month brings this time around.
  • Art Cashin: "Draghi Facing A Revolt"
    Kenny Polcari...
    Now to be fair - in my view - Draghi did not fail at all…….and in time it will be seen as a cautious and prudent move
    Let’s be clear - Draghi did 3 things….He cut the penalty rates to -0.3% on bank reserves (expected), he extended the QE program out until March of 2017 (expected) and he broadened the pool of eligible bonds (expected) - all events that are sure to balloon the ECB balance sheet for longer than previously expected….so what else do these pigs want?
    Well, they WANTED him to increase the monthly rate of purchases - (currently 60 bil Euros/month) to something north of 70 bil Euros/month and they wanted him to cut the penalty rate on reserves to -0.4% vs. the -0.3%…. in fact what THEY want is for the ECB to support their RISK - something that every central bank around the world has been doing for more than 7 yrs now - so on the one hand you can’t really blame them because they have been conditioned to get what they want - until they don’t………..and because they did not get what THEY wanted - they decided to stamp their feet and create chaos……
    Now to be fair - in my view - Draghi did not fail at all…….and in time it will be seen as a cautious and prudent move. We are in unchartered territory my friends and so the fact is that no one really knows what the right thing to do is (and that is not any clearer than here in the US..) We are flying by the seat of our pants and in the end - the mkts will price in the risk and find equilibrium - it may not be pretty getting there, but it will get there. Look - just like the FED - He faces a split among his members…..with some of them clearly voicing concern that the ECB has already done way to much - while others suggest that they can do more……in the end - what we have learned is that monetary policy alone can’t fix the problem…..and until elected officials fix fiscal policy - we may be in this purgatory for yrs more…..
    http://kennypolcari.tumblr.com/post/134523722625/interpretation-is-in-the-ear-of-the-beholder
  • MLP post
    @Junkster Missed your earlier M L P post ????
    Anyways, You might be getting some M L P,s or their debt in some of your Junk Fund portfolios !
    Kinder Morgan's attempt to reassure instead stirs up more questions
    Dec 4 2015, 18:55 ET Seeking Alpha
    Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) rolled over late in today's trade to close -12.7%, not far off an all-time low $16.56 reached earlier in the session, as its midday attempt to reassure investors about its dividend and cash flow did little to ease concerns.
    Analysts increasingly expect a dividend cut, given that KMI said it will not issue more equity and plans to retain its investment grade rating, which means it also cannot issue more debt; KMI could sell assets but only at bargain basement prices, or find additional alternative financing, but it already issued a big chunk of convertible preferred shares this year.
    "Dividend growth is unrealistic,” says Jefferies' Vivek Pal, calculating that the company needs a 50% dividend cut to avoid being downgraded to junk.
    TheStreet.com's Dan Dicker, still a KMI bull, believes Rich Kinder will not force a full-scale capitulation of its shareholders by slashing the dividend.
    Citi analyst Faisel Khan keeps his rating at Neutral with a reduced $22 price target, incorporating a 40% dividend cut.
    KMI is now the weakest pipeline operator in the S&P 500 this year, -60% YTD.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2967346-kinder-morgans-attempt-to-reassure-instead-stirs-up-more-questions
  • Morningstar $69 One year special
    One fund detail that seems to appear only in the fund analyses (albeit rarely even there) is whether (and how much) a fund hedges. Another is whether a bond fund makes significant use of interest-only derivatives. That's one of the things that originally caught my eye with FPNIX.
    To round out the list of top three useful paid features I would add the premium fund screener. Sure there are things like Schwab's screener that purport to give you access to many (but not all) of the same criteria, but they tend to limit you to predefined ranges (e.g. Sharpe ratio in fixed 0.5 ranges) that are often useless.
  • Morningstar $69 One year special
    my top 2:
    Portfolio xray
    Fund analysis
    These are the two primary ones for me. I like being able to see how the top 25 holdings are distributed in my funds, it tells you how many funds have the same stocks ( and how much) trying to limit too much crossover. Some of the fund analyses can only be viewed as subscriber. I dropped the service for 6 months but realized I missed being able to use these two benefits.