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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Your own A.U.M. and your hourly rate of pay; after all those long years of investing.....
    Hi @Maurice
    The hours of "research" is merely a baseline for the numbers.
    'Course, if only 52 hours/year (1hr/week) were used for "research"; the hourly rate
    of pay would be just amazing, eh? But, this wouldn't allow for enough time with MFO !!!
    And yes, for all of our portfolios; tis always "do'in alright, so far....."
  • Your own A.U.M. and your hourly rate of pay; after all those long years of investing.....
    Howdy,
    Well, in the early days of one's retirement plan via IRA, 401k, 403b or related; it may be difficult to initially appreciate a rate of return on your money, when the balance is $2,000. Presuming a first, one year return of 8% on the money, $160 does not seem like much for most folks.
    The years roll past, and a working couple has managed to provide for a family and living within their incomes from their excellent budgeting skills; allowing them to continue to set aside monies into retirement funds.
    They maintained their positive investment emotions over the years, even when the investment markets had a few rough periods. They did/do monitor their investments, but were not frequent with moving money here and there. They actually enjoy this monitoring, as it is also an ongoing educational experience.
    Jumping forward to retirement period.
    We find their investible retirement savings to be exactly $500,000 on March 9, 2009.
    They decided, within their rollover IRA accounts, to have a moderate, U.S. centered investment allocation starting with a most simple plan. VTI and BND would have 50% of the monies allocated to each fund. They would monitor these choices and make adjustments as needed, based upon the results.
    The combined annualized return between these 2 funds over the past 6 years is about 10%.
    The numbers: March 2009 - March 2015
    --- 1st year, + $50,000 gain
    --- 2nd year, + $55,000 gain
    --- 3rd year, + $60,500 gain
    --- 4th year, + $66,550 gain
    --- 5th year, + $73,205 gain
    --- 6th year, + $80,525 gain
    Total current value = $885,780
    Total current gain over the 6 year period = $385,780
    They calculated the following fun excercise regarding their invested monies versus their time; another very precious commodity. They were curious with their time spent to monitor and perhaps take any actions with their investment holdings; as to what this would mean in terms of an hourly rate of pay for their efforts.
    Upon review, this couple determined they spend an average of 20 hours per week with investment business information; in written and television form. Keeping in mind that they don't really consider this a chore, as they both enjoy keeping up to date and informed.
    Twenty hours a week of time becomes 1,040 hours a year. With this in place, the following numbers were determined as to an hourly rate of pay:
    --- 1st year = $48/hour
    --- 2nd year = $53/hour
    --- 3rd year = $58/hour
    --- 4th year = $64/hour
    --- 5th year = $70/hour
    --- 6th year = $77/hour
    Overall average of the 6 years = $62/hour
    Obviously, they found these numbers quite pleasing; and more than any hourly pay rate they had received during their working careers.
    Well, another view; at least for this house, as to the value of saving and investing; and how it relates in the long run, to a part-time, post-retirement pay scale for working from the comfort of your own home. :)
    Hoping your hourly pay rate for the time spent monitoring and educating yourself for now or the future, to help your investments grow properly, into enough Assets Under Management; that you are well rewarded for your efforts.
    All numbers should be accurate. Please let me know if the math has a problem, as I can always blame the HP-12C calculator.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Fidelity Fights Back Against 'Active Share'
    It does not help that Fidelity offers far too many funds at about 350 ... nearly 100 remain loaded.
  • 1st Quarter MFO Ratings Update
    All Search Tools have now been updated with performance data through March.
    The MFO Fund Dashboard contains all funds profiled through April commentary.
    Some notable funds on the Three Alarm list, which examines only absolute return within category, include:
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    American Century One Choice 2025 A (ARWAX)
    American Century One Choice 2035 A (ARYAX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Hussman Strategic International (HSIEX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Royce Partners Svc (RPTRX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Paradigm Value (PVFAX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Select I Invmt (RYSFX)
    Royce 100 Svc (RYOHX)
    Royce Heritage Svc (RGFAX)
    Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt (PENNX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Ave Maria Opportunity (AVESX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Select II Invmt (RSFDX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)
    Of Royce's 27 funds, nine are Three Alarm.
    Pacific Advisors has five Three Alarm Funds...they only offer six. From its website:
    We are a family of six focused mutual funds, each designed to meet a different need and to complement each other when building a diversified investment plan. Whether you are just starting out in your career, or enjoying retirement today, we deliver top quality service and a wide range of investments to meet your changing needs.
    Here is a snapshot (from MFO Premium beta site) of their lifetime performance:
    image
    Really horrible family of funds, seems to me. Why would anyone buy them?
    Vanguard offers 150 funds. How many are on the Three Alarm list? None. I find that remarkable. How many are on the Honor Roll? 32. I find that remarkable too.
    A look at just-turned-three Great Owls, finds:
    Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder (GAINX)
    Rainier International Discovery Instl (RAIIX)
    DFA World Core Equity Institutional (DREIX)
    Seafarer Overseas Gr and Income Instl (SIGIX)
    Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Countrs Inv (WAFMX)
    PIMCO Total Return Active EtF (BOND)
    AQR TM Large Cap Momentum Style I (ATMOX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Inv (VTTSX)
    2060?!
    A total of 8159 funds (oldest share class only, at least one year old) are included in this quarter's update.
    We also updated the look a bit to support new site theme...here's example of Risk Profile output:
    image
    Enjoy.
    c
  • Fidelity Fights Back Against 'Active Share'
    FYI: Facing outflows in its actively managed funds, the $2 trillion money manager lashes out against a popular measure that more advisers and investors are using to pick funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150409/FREE/150409909?template=printart
    Active Share Measures Active Management:
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/07/active-share.asp?view=print
  • Jason Zweig: Just How Dumb Are Investors ?
    FYI: A new study finds that the average investor in all U.S. stock funds earned 3.7% annually over the past 30 years—a period in which the S&P 500 stock index returned 11.1% annually. That means stock-fund investors underperformed the market by approximately 7.4 percentage points annually for three decades, according to Dalbar, a financial-research firm in Boston that has updated this oft-cited study each year since 1994.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/09/just-how-dumb-are-investors/tab/print/
    Dalbar Study:
    http://grandwealth.com/files/DALBAR QAIB 2014.pdf
  • Up eight trading days in a row to all time highs
    @Junkster & @davfor- best of both worlds- I kept MAPIX despite the lack of dividend last qtr, and also have SFGIX. Both of those, as you mentioned, thanks to many years of good info from folks here at MFO & FundAlarm. About 5% of our portfolio for those two.
  • Up eight trading days in a row to all time highs
    The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index (junk corporates) Then again, were I younger, poorer, less risk averse/ more aggressive SFGIX would be my cup of tea. Congrats to all the MFOers in that one in 2015.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Average Returns, Rarer Than You Think
    FYI: One of the most fascinating things about markets is the sheer volume of data they generate. Every day, millions of data points get created. The vast majority of this amounts to little more than noise. This endless stream of information leads thousands of us everyday on a hunt for meaningful signal amid the cacophony.
    Most of the time, we are unsuccessful. We can be tricked into seeing significance where none exists. Our pattern recognition engines are fooled by what turns out to be mere randomness (there’s a good idea for a book in that). There is a meaningful needle buried somewhere in the haystack of numbers, but we underestimate both how hard it is to identify, and just how huge that stack is.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-09/average-market-returns-are-rarer-than-you-think
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    • Overnight, the Chinese A/H share class trade continued to play out as the “Southbound” train was moving at full speed. With the China A-share premium over H-shares touching on 3 year highs in recent weeks, yesterday’s correction represented a 2.6x standard deviation move as the Heng Seng experiences record volumes. Note the FXI (tracking the H-Share FTSE China 50 index) jumped 6.2% yesterday - on quadruple its average volume - even as ASHR (tracking the CSI 300 China A-Shares Index) was only up 0.6%.
  • Long-Term Performance Stats of Little Benefit
    Most readers here are of course MF investors, although many hold ETFs and stocks. I reviewed Barron's quarterly fund issue today and found that the tables of fund performance, good and bad, over periods of years have become useless because they are populated by ETFs on steroids, at least the last 10 years studied. For 15 and 20 year periods, MF performance can be gleaned, but soon enough ETFs will crowd out the MFs. I wonder if Barron's has given any thought to how skewed the presentation of data has become. The tail seems to be wagging the dog. I for one pay no attention to what a 3X bear sector ETF has done for the past five years, yet my subscription dollars pay for tabulation of data of little application.
  • Emerging Market fund flows
    Hi @Paul
    While these longer (rear view) time frames may be of interest for review; IMHO, one needs to attempt to place what other events were taking place at the time of whatever particular money flow was being reviewed.
    Since the markets melt in 2007/2008 there have been many "special situations" that would have provided any number of reasons for why the "big/hot money" was traveling to a particular area.
    We try to view the current functions of the market place to establish investment postions.
    To the circumstance of only one effect of market movements/cash flows may be reflected from the actions of central banks attempting to support "growth" and a "2% inflation rate". The result, of course; became and still exists today with a hugh boatload of very low yields for government and other investment grade bonds. Cheap money for financing.........whatever.
    So, as to the flows of money into particular areas; from a review of past actions, needs to accompanied by and with "what was taking place" at the time.
    We held IG and HY bonds much past the time frame of what the "economists and forecasters" kept telling us would be "healthy" for a decent return on the investment. I don't recall how many annual forecasts I have read during the past 5 years regarding that "the U.S. 10 yield was going to x percent upward in the next 6 - 12 months."
    How many times has the EuroZone gone through the shakes of the market place in the past 5 years? My answer would simply be, a bunch !!!
    However, I/we do use pricing of various market areas for a reflection of "money flows" at the time. If one were reviewing U.S. equity and bonds for a "funds flow" during the second half of 2011, the consideration that the U.S. had a debt quality downgrade in July would have to be accounted as a partial reason for the changes during this period. Pricing for equity went to hell for a few months and most IG bond pricing was very happy during this period.
    Numerous other examples could be provided strictly related to central bank actions, regardless of any other events.
    Obviously, this particular area of thought (funds/money flows) for a market guage is very complex; past the simple notes I have written.
    I don't offer any particular judgment about investing in emerging markets at this time. We are "full up" with other areas that are doing well at this time.
    As Mr. Snowball has noted in the blue box text along the left, top edge of this page; this is just my 2 cents worth. My only "formal" education regarding investments is from 35 years attending the "school of hard knocks". :)
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Emerging Market fund flows
    @Paul It wasn't clear from your request: did you just want net weekly and monthly flow figures, or did you want these totals broken down into (a) outflows (smart money) and (b) inflows (dumb money)? There are few EM countries that have a tailwind behind them; most have increasing headwinds, and the winds on every continent are headed south, so to speak. Currency wars, inflation, domestic consumer market undeveloped, sharp declines in foreign demand for exports. So why now, what's the rush? Just my take.
    Hi heezsafe, I was looking for longer term flow numbers. For instance, let's say Domestic Equity has had more total inflows by tens of billions over the past 5 years and Emerging Markets (overall, no specific region) had outflows (or low inflows), it could be an interesting space to add exposure.
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    Apologies if some of this is imbedded in the linked stories above.
    additional short news report
    Partial from this article:
    >>>"New action from regulators also appears to be spurring the resurgence in mainland buying.
    The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) removed barriers for mainland money managers to buy H-shares last week. "The idea is not to hurt the A-share market, but to lower the valuation discrepancy between markets and spread risk," said Chris Weston, IG's chief market strategist.
    Moreover, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission recently allowed mainland insurance firms to invest in Hong Kong's Growth Enterprise Market for the first time.
    HSBC expects additional supporting policies to be announced in the near future, including the introduction of margin trading for mainland retail investors and a removal of the 500,000 renminbi minimum stock account balance, which should increase participation in southbound Stock Connect trading.
    However, not everyone believes mainland players are at the center of the action.
    "Despite the recent extension of Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect to include mainland fund managers, our discussions with brokers [on Wednesday] suggest it was foreign fund manager buying, rather than mainland Chinese," noted Mark Matthews, head of research Asia at Bank Julius Baer." <<<
    Thank you to all who helped reason the original question.
    Catch
  • Bill Gross' Contrarian Bet Against The Dollar Helps Him Regain Footing
    A friend of mine compared Bill Gross to the game of whack-a-mole. He just keeps popping up.
    Wonder how many people know that Janus has eight (!) share classes of this fund. The marketing folks at Janus have found a way to sell it to just about everyone. How would you like to pay 1.83% annually for a bond fund? Or maybe you would prefer 1.33%, or how about 1.08%, or even 0.83%, for the same fund? And this doesn't include any up-front or trail commissions. Commission and annual expenses for A-class shares total about 5.85% in the first year. Let's hear it for Janus!
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    Non-dollar bonds are being pressured by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Unlike international companies that generate revenue from outside their borders, foreign bonds are dependent to a great extent on the value of their currency. Some folks believe the dollar may stagnate for a while, some believe the euro will strengthen, both of which would help foreign bonds. Timing this is nearly impossible. You might consider Matthews Asia Strategic Income MAINX (keep in mind this is Asia-specific fixed-income), Templeton Global Bond TGBAX (manager Hasenstab is the best at currency choices), or a multi-sector option like BlackRock Strategic Income BSIIX (has about 25% in non-U.S. bonds). These have decent track records and strong management teams. But, yes, you should capture some of the gain in Apple. The point is not to sell Apple, but rather to not lose all the gains should the stock market correct or worse. Remember that a bad day for bonds is nothing compared to a bad day for stocks.