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For a different context, current S&P 500 forward P/E is 21.6 while the highest forward P/E ever was in 1999 at 25.5. If one thinks we are far in bubbly territory, I guess we are from frothy territory?S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
https://freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20240923-us-economy-continues-expandOverall, while mortgage rates declined from 6.85% in July to 6.5% in August, that may not be enough to give a boost to housing demand as homebuyers continue to wait for rates to decline further. On the supply side, housing construction remains low. Mortgage performance continues to be strong, especially for conventional borrowers.
Outlook
Despite the cooling labor market, our outlook for the economy still calls for a soft landing. We expect economic growth to continue, albeit at a slower pace. Under our baseline scenario, inflation is expected to cool further. The discourse around the timing and pace of potential future rate cuts will likely drive the near-term path of interest rates rather than the actual policy decision itself. While there is likely to be some volatility around any policy statements, we expect mortgages rates to decline further, though remaining above 6% by year-end.
TCAF, QLTY, and LCR go through boomlets of attention here from time to time. Sindreu wants to know if your yachts have arrived yet.
Makes me wonder how much ink Sindreu spilled on the topic of concentration in the cap-weighted S&P 500. Are we over that now?Did he just noun a verb? I don't think I've seen that yet.that lack the scale of compete.
You conveniently didn’t mention the rest of my post where I said I was exiting CBYYX and why.junkster wrote: "Regarding CBYYX where a few are invested including me. I re entered this fund in July after Hurricane Beryl had no impact whatsoever. Hurricane Beryl was a cat 5 and broke all sorts of meteorological records. Yet none of the cat bonds got hit. Since Beryl the cat bonds have been the best performers in Bondville even outperforming the S@P. Oddly enough almost all the gains have come on Fridays."
regarding Friday gains, i found this today on the artemis website that perhaps explains why that day is special:
"Investment managers are working to incorporate their projections and estimations of potential losses from major hurricane Milton into their catastrophe bond and ILS portfolios. Managers of 40’s Act registered US mutual fund structures need to mark their portfolios with a fund price daily, based on net asset value. This is a challenge given the catastrophe bond market only marks its positions on a Friday ...."
that being the case, it'll be interesting to see what this friday brings ...
Actually, most funds trail the SP500 with which has a very small expense ratio if you hold for decades. There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett recommended the SP500 for decades....and it's the easiest way to invest. So, why are we discussing funds and trade?
So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..
The problem is defining "now." A fund that does well for a few months or even a year would be bad reason FOR ME to jump in, perhaps you are different. If you have a fund that outperforms for years then that would be a reason for me to move...but just as often I find the fund reverts to the mean rather than continue to outperform, a point you acknowledge in another post. I totally get the idea of riding the wave of a winner, but find that strategy hard to implement in real life. Truth is it's very hard to beat buy and hold with solid funds over a long period of time, or even an index fund. I suspect many of us know that deep down, but just because I'm a bad golfer doesn't mean I dislike golf.
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