Hi
@Ted and others,
Ted, it is nice to see you posting again; and, with this, I hope you are feeling better. I can assure you that you were indeed missed.
I have mixed feelings about your price target for the
500 Index (20
59 X 6.7%=2200). Currently, I feel stocks in the Index are richely priced with a current TTM P/E Ratio of 22.7 and on forward estimates at 17.9. What concerns me is the spread between reported (TTM) and estimates is better than 2
5% with Friday's market close price of 2079 (October 30) for the Index. With this, I am thinking forward estimates will be getting revised downward and at your price target of 2200 then this puts stocks as expensive at yearend and vunerable for correction as they are today assuming earnings do improve and stay in step with your anticipated price improvement. If your anticipated price target is achieved then I hope earnings estimates come through to support this price target; and, that they do not get revised downward so the beat rate, by analyst, looks good for 4Q201
5 reporting. I think the average investor is, at times, mislead by beat rate reporting not knowing that this most often happens as a product of analyst's making revised downward earnings expectations up to and sometimes just before companies report. Thus, the beat rate continues. I personally do not see much continued upside in the markets until corporate earnings and revenue improve. This could continue to be a challenge with a strong dollar and a rising interest rate environment on the horizon. I have no plans this year to make a special investment position for an anticipated fall stock market rally because I think stocks, as a whole, are currently overbought.
With this, I am Ieft pondering; and, standing pat with my portfolio's current asset allocation of about 2
5% cash, 20% income,
50% equity and
5% other assets as of my last Instant Xray report (October 30, 201
5).
Again, it is nice to see you posting.
I sincerely wish you the very best; and, take care of yourself.
Old_Skeet
