How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero Hi Hank,
You expressed an interest in earlier S&P Persistence Scorecards that contain Bear market performance records.
The S&P team has been doing this type of analyses for some time now, and their earlier reports are accessible. Here is a Link to their 2010 edition that should satisfy your curiosity:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=PersistenceScorecard_Nov10.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application/pdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243781101148&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8Wow, that’s some address. The study findings change each year numerically, but the general overarching findings do not. With minor exceptions, their 2010 conclusion resembles their most recent conclusion. Here is their 2010 top finding:
“Very few funds have managed to consistently repeat top-half or top-quartile performance. Over the five years ending September 2010, only 4.10% of large-cap funds, 3.80% of mid-cap funds, and 4.60% of small-cap funds maintained a top-half ranking over five consecutive 12-month periods. Expectations of a random outcome would suggest a rate of 6.2
5%.”
I like your long-term equities perspective. I have owned several activity managed mutual funds for over two decades. However, for even shorter timeframes that exceed one year, I might cut down a little on my equity positions while not abandoning them completely.
Especially today, the returns expected from fixed income sources barely nose-out inflation rates. I think I would attempt to minimize equity risk by very broad equity international and product diversification in holdings like emerging markets, real estate, and commodities. I do keep enough near-cash reserves in short term bonds and money markets to survive for at least two years.
That’s just me wandering a bit. I respect that all investors have different priorities, different risk profiles, different size war-chests, and different investment philosophies. More power and more profit to all of us.
Best Wishes.
Does It Make Sense To Treat Your Portfolio Like An Endowment? I always remember my first investment (an IRA) for $2,500, I think after a year it was worth $2650..... I said to myself this investing will never amount to anything...
After 30years...no (real) money worries.......surprise yourself
Does It Make Sense To Treat Your Portfolio Like An Endowment? Junkster recently mused in a post about striking a balance between reaping now and sowing for the future as we manage our individual portfolios during our "retirement" years. The article in this link suggests it may be appropriate to plan on living to 100 as we consider this question. It also suggests we manage our individual portfolios like endowments, seeking to balance annual withdrawals and portfolio growth to avoid eroding the principal.
The idea of looking at our individual situations and then deciding on an amount to set aside for the future -- be it the nominal or inflation adjusted principal or some other amount -- makes sense to me. (It is the basic approach I use to manage my portfolio.) The decided upon amount can be set aside for use if a dramatic future increase in medical and related care expenses requires it. And, it can include additional funds to be left to our heirs and/or to do good things in the world after we are gone. The remainder of the ongoing total returns in our individual portfolios can be reaped now.
The success of this approach assumes we will avoid doing too much reaping after one or two good years. So, "Reaping Now" needs to be averaged over some number of years. But, the idea that we each need to have a conversation with ourselves and make peace with much we want to be setting aside "indefinitely" for the future makes sense to me.
http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/articles/2015/03/12/the-100-year-old-portfolio-investments-for-a-long-life
I have figured out for sure that I'll never have the comfortable amounts that get referenced in investing articles from newspapers and magazines. Half a million? Not gonna happen. I have to take satisfaction that between wifey and myself, our "heirs" are recipients from time to time
already, in no small way. Life's not fair. But it's LOTS more unfair to some others. And so, we do our part to even the score. "It's a good thing." (---uncle Martha Stewart.)
Does It Make Sense To Treat Your Portfolio Like An Endowment? I plan finances up to 85-87yo.....that way I know my plan will come true (work), your plan to 100yo is dead (no pun) to Start
How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero I took another look at the article, and the author's previous article which further described the study, and I think the point is that just because a fund had a great year, doesn't mean it will persistently have great years. Bill Miller did it for a stretch, but then he came back to the mean.
The author's prior article on the subject (July 19, 2014) recognizes that over a longer term, some fund managers do beat the market. He points out that Hodges Small and SouthernSun Small Cap "rewarded shareholders spectacularly, turning a $10,000 investment to $35,000 over those five years, ... By contrast, the same investment in a Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fund would have become more than $23,000..."
I believe the value of the study by S&P Down Jones is to point out the risks of buying the hot funds that had a great year--as opposed to considering the long-term and the methodology of the fund. Too many investors buy the top one-year performers and end up selling when the funds have bad years.
[I do believe these forums lose some of their value when they descend into a right/left struggle. It can be a real turnoff.]
The Closing Bell:Wall Street Bounces, Led By Healthcare Utilities, Dollar Drop Eases Earnings Worry The AMGN 5% bump was significant given its market cap, and pulled several other firms with a similar cholesterol compound up as well, including REGN.
How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero Over the last 20 years Health Care funds have shellac the overall market in both to the upside on gains as well to the downside on losses. Here's VGHCX (Health Care) vs VTSMX (the Market) over the last 20 years. Will this continue?
How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero Sure thing, tb. Luck has nothing to do with being naturally inclined towards athletic skills. The body type you were born with has absolutely nothing to do with success or opportunity. The world is just full of 5 foot tall professional basketball players, and 120lb slightly built fullbacks, famous actors who are deaf-mutes, and engineers with no aptitude for math. The physical and mental capabilities and limitations that you are born with mean absolutely nothing. All that counts is "developing skills". Sure thing, tb.
The Closing Bell:Wall Street Bounces, Led By Healthcare Utilities, Dollar Drop Eases Earnings Worry
Funds / EFTs with Mo' Mo' (mo're mo'mentum) My Mo' Mo' List:
VHT
EWJ
VBK
VXF
VOT
IIF
Here VHT (1 yr chart)
My No/No List:
USO
VDE
BRAQ
GDX
GDXJ
GCC
Here GCC ( 1yr chart):
Monthly Payers I imagine that any bond type mutual fund pays a monthly dividend. If you want to explore ETF's that do you can start with the link below although they are not listed or sorted in terms of frequency. If you choose to be a subscriber ($
5 for first month, cancel anytime) you may find the list you're looking for. Mr. Domash is a straight shooter.
http://www.dividenddetective.com/dividend_etfs.htm
